Armed Conflicts Report
Summary:
2008 In the state of Assam, several field commanders of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) opted for a ceasefire and peace negotiations with the state. This raised hopes for less violence and while that was the case initially, violence in Assam rose towards the end of the year in part because of a conflict between Bodo tribesmen and Muslims. In addition to Assam, two other states, Manipur and Nagaland were plagued with violence and contributed to over 95% of the deaths that occurred across the seven northeastern states. The total of over 1130 conflict deaths represented a new annual high for the region which has seen the death toll almost double since 2006.
2007 The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) began a series of attacks against Hindi-speaking migrant labourers in January that continued throughout the year and caused upwards of 300 casualties. Increased unrest in the state of Assam prompted the government to launch an “all-out offensive” against the group and deploy some 13 000 troops to the area. Elections in Manipur were carried out amidst high levels of violence as Naga rebels attempted to block participation from mainstream political parties. A ceasefire between the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isaac/Muivah (NSCN-I/M) was extended indefinitely, yet hopes of peace talks between the government and the separatist group remain low.
2006 Ceasefires that were previously in place between the government and some rebel groups were upheld. Some peace negotiations occurred, but with little success. Clashes between other rebel groups and security forces continued, and extortion by rebels is increasingly an issue. Efforts have been made to secure India’s borders with Burma (Myanmar) and Bangladesh. Upwards of 600 people were killed.
2005 Negotiations between the federal and state governments and a number of rebel groups continued with mixed results. Fighting through most of the northeast involved clashes between government troops and rebels, inter-rebel and inter-tribal clashes, violent police oppression and an attack by Burmese troops on rebel bases inside Burma. At least 700 people were killed in the violence.
2004 Inter-communal conflict, terrorist attacks, and clashes between government security forces and rebel groups resulted in over 800 deaths in 2004. The Bhutanese and Burmese militaries continued to assault rebel bases in their territories while the Indian and Bangladeshi armies launched their first joint military operations against rebels. In a departure from past policy the Indian government announced it was willing to begin peace talks with any rebel group that gave up violence, regardless of whether they had begun to disarm. As a result, government talks with rebel groups began or continued.
2003 States in north-eastern India continued to experience fighting which resulted in approximately 1,000 deaths. Civilian deaths represented almost half the fatalities as communal violence and incidents of "ethnic cleansing" occurred throughout the year. The Bhutanese army went on the offensive against Assamese insurgents based within Bhutan, killing approximately 100 rebel fighters and dislodging them from their bases. Peace negotiations continued between the government and several insurgent groups, particularly those based in Nagaland.
2002 Fighting claimed close to 1,000 lives this year, despite the initiation of peace negotiations between a number of north-eastern rebel groups and the Indian government.
2001 A major joint offensive by the militaries of India and Burma to dislodge separatist rebels operating along India’s northeastern border failed to prevent rebel attacks on civilians and security forces. The government’s decision to extend a cease fire with rebels in the state of Nagaland to other states in the northeast was reversed in July due to popular dissent in the neighbouring states. Approximately 1,400 people were killed in 2001.
2000 Violence escalated in 2000, particularly in the last two months of the year, but there were conflicting claims about who carried out the killings. The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) denied targeting civilians and accused the government of masterminding the upsurge in violence. There also were attacks involving tribal Bodo groups in western Assam and an estimated 900 rebels surrendered to government forces during the year. Over 1,700 people died in 2000.
1999 Violence in the region continued in 1999 with fighting between rebel groups and government security forces and clashes among rival insurgent groups that often targeted civilians. During the year more than 1,200 civilians, rebels and government forces were killed.
1998 Following a government offensive against the largest insurgent group early in the year, the conflict reverted to its deadly combination of government-rebel skirmishes, abuses by security forces, and attacks by rebels on government officials and on rival insurgent forces and their communities.
1997 Insurgent attacks on government forces and public transportation, skirmishes between government and rebel forces, factional feuds among rival insurgent groups, and abuses by government forces all contributed to an escalation of regional violence in spite of cease-fires agreed to by some rebel groups.
1996 Major ethnic clashes in May, border tensions with Nagaland, gun fights between rebels and the police and army, attacks on civilians, and Bodo rebel bombings, including a main railway in December, killed at least 1,200 in 1996, intensifying the conflict.
Type of Conflict:
State formation
Parties to the Conflict:
1) Government of India:
Indian Army;
Indian Central Para-Military Forces (CPMFs)
Elections in 2004 resulted in the Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance coalition replacing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition and forming the national government with Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister. India’s next national election is scheduled for 2009.
2) Northeast State governments (including Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura):
State police and special forces play some part in counter-insurgency fighting but it is national forces that mostly engage with rebel groups.
“Counter-insurgency operations have primarily been led by the Army and central para-military forces (CPMFs), with the [Manipur] State Police playing only a subsidiary and marginal role.” [Manipur Assessment – Year 2009, South Asia Terrorism Portal]
“Assam’s counter-terrorism strategy still relies disproportionately on central forces, and the Assam Police suffers significant infirmities.” [Assam Assessment 2009, South Asia Terrorism Portal]
3) Neighbouring states of Myanmar, Bhutan, and Bangladesh have in the past assisted by attacking rebel camps on their territory but there have been few reports of such cooperation recently.
“Cooperation between the security forces of India and Myanmar in countering anti-India rebels based in Myanmar is poised to enter bold new phase, with the countries discussing joint counter-insurgency operations in Myanmar – a move fraught with pitfalls.” [Sudha Ramachandran, Asia Times Online, July 21, 2005]
“The 6,000-strong army of the isolated Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan launched the first offensive in its history yesterday, attacking Indian separatist rebels with camps in the country. ... King Jigme ... said there were about 20 militant camps in his kingdom, which shares a long frontier with the Indian states of Assam and West Bengal. Bhutanese officials estimate that about 3,000 rebels belonging to three groups ... operate from the thickly forested border regions.” [telegraph.co.uk, December 16, 2003]
4) Rebels - There are dozens of armed groups operating in north-eastern India, many of which are ethnically-based. While many of the groups are seeking outright independence for their region from India, others are fighting to gain increased autonomy. Currently, three states host the majority of rebel activity: Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland.
In Assam, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) was the predominant group with the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) and the Black Widow group (BW) being the next most active. Besides these three, several other groups made intermittent attacks during the year.
In Manipur, groups reported to be active include the People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), the Military Council faction of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP-MC), the People’s United Liberation Front (PULF), the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA). Also, the areas bordering the state of Nagaland have been affected by the activities of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM).
In Nagaland, the much of the violence in 2009 took place between two insurgent factions, namely the Isak-Muivah (IM) faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN) and NSCN’s Khapalng (K) faction. [Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal’s 2009 Assessment for Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland. See
South Asia Terrorism Portal ]
“The influential National Socialist Council of Nagaland Isaac/Muivah (NSCN-I/M) today renewed its demand for a ‘greater Nagaland’ in India’s northeast, which would expand the northeastern state of Nagaland to include areas dominated by the Nagal tribal group…The NSCN is the oldest of around 30 armed rebel groups in India’s northeast and had entered into a ceasefire with New Delhi in 1997. The group has been fighting since Indian independence in 1947….” [Asia-Pacific Daily Report, March 8, 2005]
Due to the geographic proximity of these states to several countries which border India to the north and the east, many of the aforementioned insurgent groups operate from within these countries. For example, several Assamese groups operate out of Bhutan, groups from Manipur and Nagaland are based in Myanmar (Burma), and groups from Tripura reportedly are situated in Bangladesh.
“The three rebel groups involved in the fighting [in Assam] are Ulfa, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the Kamptapur Liberation Organization (KLO). Ulfa is fighting for Assam’s independence from India while the NDFB and the KLO are fighting for separate tribal homelands.” [BBC News, December 26, 2003]
“Separatists from India’s north-eastern state of Assam maintain a number of bases in southern Bhutan from where they attack targets in Assam.” [BBC News, August 4, 2003]
“Indian officials say the NSCN has continued to maintain training camps across the border in Burma, and has operational bases in Thailand, and the Philippines.” [InterPress Service, January 28, 2000]
“New Delhi holds that Bangladesh has provided sanctuary to ethnic-based rebel groups -- including the United Liberation Front of Asom, National Socialist Council of Nagaland and the Bodo Security Force -- who seek independence for their traditional lands in India’s northeast.” [Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 15, 1997]
Status of Fighting:
2008, violence rose markedly in the last four months of the year. In addition to the secessionist insurgency in Assam, a clash between Bodo tribesmen and Muslims broke out in October in which dozens were killed. In Nagaland, the number of deaths increased significantly but this was mostly due to internecine fighting between two factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN). Fighting in Nagaland was reported to have adversely affected neighbouring areas of Manipur.
“The Bodos feel they are being marginalized in their homeland by the influx of Muslims, who comprise an estimated 40 percent of Assam’s population.” [Reuters, October 22, 2008]
“Manipur’s woes, emanating from ‘indigenous’ militant outfits, have been further aggravated by the overflow of militancy from neighbouring Nagaland...” [Manipur Assessment – Year 2009, South Asia Terrorism Portal]
“With at least 387 fatalities (provisional total), Assam in 2008 remained the second most violent theatre of conflict in India’s Northeast, after its neighbour to the east, Manipur, which recorded at least 499 fatalities. Nevertheless, this represented a decline in fatalities in all categories, as compared to 2007. ... While a measure of normalcy did appear to have been imposed during the first eight months of 2008, militant violence rose sharply in the last four months, pushing parts of Assam in chaos, uncertainty and fear” [Assam Assessment 2009, South Asia Terrorism Portal]
“The Naga insurgency in India’s troubled Northeast has, over the years, become increasingly fratricidal, and trends in 2008 only demonstrate a further acceleration along this trajectory. ... The insurgents comprise nearly 65 percent of the total fatalities, with virtually the entire number ascribed to internecine clashes, in the absence of any significant insurgent-SF [Security Forces] standoffs.” [Nagaland Assessment, Year 2009, South Asia Terrorism Portal]
“There have been a number of major bomb attacks in India in the past few months, many of them blamed on Islamist groups. But local separatists have been held responsible for recent explosions in north-eastern cities. Two north-eastern state capitals – Agartala in Tripura and Imphal in Manipur – saw serial explosions this month. At least 20 people were killed and more than 100 injured in the blasts.” [BBC News, 31 October, 2008]
“India’s northeastern Assam state deployed paramilitary troops Monday to quell clashes between Muslim migrants and tribal groups that have left almost 50 dead. A senior Assam police official said an additional 2,100 paramilitary personnel had been sent to the affected areas, where curfews with shoot-on-sight orders have already been imposed.” [AFP, 7 October, 2008]
2007 Peace talks between Delhi and ULFA remained distant as numerous surges of violence plagued Assam. ULFA rebels are suspected of killing over 300 Hindi-speaking migrants, prompting the government to launch an “all-out offensive” in response. Talks between the NSCN-IM and the government began in December but no progress is expected. Tense state elections in Manipur resulted in violent clashes as Naga rebels attempted to prevent the participation of mainstream political parties.
“Indian army soldiers are patrolling districts of Assam state after at least 55 people were killed in two days of attacks by suspected separatists. Police say the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) is responsible, but the rebel group has yet to respond. A permanent curfew has been imposed in the Tinsukia district following a spate of attacks on Hindi-speaking settlers.” [BBC News, 08 January 2007]
“Army deployed 13 000 troops to Assam state in response to escalation in attacks by separatist ULFA movement.” [CrisisWatch, 01 February 2007]
“Fighting between Kuki Liberation Army and Nagaland separatists in Manipur killed 15 early in the month, raising fears of border conflict.” [CrisisWatch, 01 October 2007]
“In Manipur, suspected separatists killed 15 soldiers on the 24th of February, following tense state elections that saw Naga rebels attempt to prevent participation of mainstream Indian parties. Earlier ambush on election vehicles killed 4 police, 2 civilians on the 9th of February.” [CrisisWatch, 01 March 2007]
“31 July Nagaland talks with Delhi saw indefinite extension of ceasefire by National Socialist Council of Nagaland separatists, subject to progress in new round of peace talks.” [CrisisWatch, 01 August 2007]
2006 Violent clashes continued to erupt between government security forces and rebels throughout the northeastern provinces of Manipur, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland and Mizoram. Manipur is considered the most volatile state, followed by Assam. The government fight against insurgencies in Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh is considered fairly successful. Rebel activities took the form of high extortion fees demanded from government offices, business and civilians, abductions, attacks on security forces and government targets, and bombings of oil refineries and pipelines. Ceasefires were maintained between the government and the NSCN-IM (Nagaland), NSCN-K (Nagaland), UPDS (Assam), NDFB (Assam) and the ANVC (Meghalaya). Peace talks between the government and the ULFA were attempted throughout the year, but with little success.
"Manipur thus remains the most violent State in the region, although there is a relative decline in violence, with total fatalities registering a decline from 331 in 2005. While a number of other States in the Northeast have or are being reclaimed from protracted insurgencies, Manipur continues to remain volatile. Large-scale extortion and its impact on ordinary lives, as well as on the lives of people at the helm of affairs in the State, are symptomatic of the virtual collapse of governance in the State. Assam too remains a disturbed State with 174 deaths in 2006 compared to 242 fatalities in 2005. The fight against insurgency in Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh remains largely successful." (South Asia Terrorism Portal,
South Asia Terrorism Portal, accessed January 2007)
2005 Clashes between government forces and rebels were reported throughout the northeast including Manipur, Assam, Nagaland, Tripura and Mizoram states. Fighting also took place on both sides of the India-Burma border as the Indian government launched attacks on Burmese rebels camped in India’s Mizoram state and the Burmese army attacked rebel bases of the NSCN-Khaplang located in Burma. Inter-tribal and/or inter-rebel clashes were reported in Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur and in particular in Assam state where the end of the year saw deadly clashes between rebels of the Dimasa and Karbi ethnic groups. Local police forces fired upon mass street demonstrations in several states killing dozens. Ceasefires were signed or continued to hold between government forces and the NDFB, the BNLF and the NSCN-IM.
"A faction of Naga separatists in north-east India say five of their bases in Burma’s Sagaing division have come under attack…The spokeman of the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) said the Burmese troops are firing mortars and light artillery on the bases." [BBC News, December 9, 2005]
"He [a police officer] said that a land dispute appeared to be behind Wednesday night’s attack in the oil and tea-rich state of Assam by members of the Kuki tribe on the rival Karbi tribe." "The two tribes have been battling each other for several years to control land assets." [Reuters, September 15, 2005]
"The Indian army says it has launched a operation against the top separatist group in north eastern Assam state." "Military officials said that the troops and rebels had clashed at Changlang on Assam’s border with Arunachal Pradesh state." [Subir Bhaumik, BBC News, August 26, 2005]
2004 Inter-ethnic clashes, sporadic fighting between Indian security forces and rebel groups as well as rebel terrorist attacks on civilian targets continued throughout the year resulting in over 800 deaths. The most serious incidents were rebel attacks on civilians, including the bombing of an Independence Day parade that killed 18 civilians and wounded dozens more. Bhutanese and Burmese attacks on rebel bases in their respective territories resulted in the destruction of several bases. Joint Indian-Bangladeshi operations against rebel groups occurred for the first time with some success and a joint India-Burma operation late in the year claimed major progress against the rebels, destroying several bases.
"A rebel group in India’s north-east says it has lost six mobile bases in Burma during a major offensive begun at the weekend by Burmese troops. The National Socialist Council of Nagaland said about 8,000 Burmese soldiers were involved." [BBC News, November 22, 2004]
"At least 10 people were hurt, one seriously, when a grenade was thrown in a cinema in a town in India's north-eastern Assam state, police said…. Separatist groups in the north-east have called for a ban on Hindi films, claiming they harm local culture." [BBC News, June 9, 2004]
"Soldiers from the Royal Bhutanese Army destroyed almost all of the 30 rebel bases on the kingdom's territory, according to Bhutanese officials." [BBC News, January 5, 2004]
"Rebel groups in north-east India have come under further pressure from Burma and Bangladesh following a successful offensive against them in Bhutan. Indian instructors are training the Burmese army and say joint operations along their border could follow. India announced on Friday it might launch joint military operations with Burma, also known as Myanmar, against rebels based in Burmese territory." [BBC News, January 2, 2004]
2003 Inter-ethnic violence and clashes between insurgents and Indian security forces continued to plague north-eastern states throughout 2003, with some groups also targeting civilians. In Assam, militants, including members of the United Liberation Front of Asom (Ulfa), attacked Biharis and other Hindi-speakers in late-2003, killing approximately 50 people and forcing tens of thousands to flee the state. In December the Bhutanese army attacked Assamese insurgents based in Bhutan, driving them from their bases and killing approximately 100 rebels. During State Assembly elections in Tripura in March militant groups employed violent tactics to intimidate and coerce voters and political leaders, resulting in approximately 50 deaths.
"The 6,000-strong army of the isolated Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan launched the first offensive in its history yesterday, attacking Indian separatist rebels with camps in the country." [telegraph.co.uk, December 16, 2003]
"More than 17,000 people have fled their homes in north-east India’s Assam state to escape attacks on Hindi-speaking settlers by Assamese mobs and rebels." [BBC News, November 26, 2003]
"Suspected separatist rebels on bicycles shot and killed 11 workers in a northeastern Indian state torn by ethnic violence, the police chief said Saturday. ... The deaths brought to 36 the total of migrant workers from Bihar who have been killed this week. The United Liberation Front of Asom, one of northeastern India’s main separatist groups, issued a statement last week warning Hindi-speaking people to leave Assam. ... The violence in Assam has prompted reprisals in Bihar, where mobs have attacked trains carrying Assamese to and from their home state." [Associated Press, November 22, 2003]
2002 Rebel groups throughout north-eastern India continued to fight government forces and target civilians. In Assam, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) was accused of "ethnic cleansing" when it summarily executed residents of a village in Kokrajhar district. Fighting intensified in Tripura where the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) carried out increasingly brutal attacks against the paramilitary.
"The rebels want an independent homeland for the Bodo tribal community in Assam and a police spokesman said this latest attack was part of a campaign of ethnic cleansing. " [BBC News, October 27, 2002]
"India’s north-east has seen more violence in the last 50 years than any other part of the country. Yet the outside world knows virtually nothing about the crisis there." [Overseas Development Institute, Humanitarian Practice Network Report, April 3, 2002]
2001 In May, the Indian and Burmese armies initiated a major joint military offensive against rebel bases in India’s northeast, bordering Burma. This did not prevent attacks on civilians and security forces.
"Burma and India have begun a joint military offensive on the bases of three rebel groups in India’s northeast. The fighting is taking place on a section along the mountainous border that separates India’s Negaland state from Burma’s Sagaing region. More than 30 rebels and soldiers have been killed since the offensive began, first with a Burmese military push and then with Indian troops joining in to block the rebels’ escape route. This is believed to be the largest joint military campaign against the rebel groups on the Indian-Burmese border-an area where dozens of separatist groups fighting against Delhi or Rangoon have been active for nearly 40 years." [BBC, May 17, 2001]
2000 Violence escalated in 2000, particularly in the last two months of the year, but there were conflicting claims about who carried out the killings. The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), accused of many attacks on civilians, denied targeting civilians and in turn accused the government of using former ULFA rebels and masterminding the upsurge in violence. Under pressure from New Delhi, the Royal Bhutan Army intensified operations against Assamese rebels to drive out the separatists on the Bhutanese side of the border. There also were attacks involving tribal Bodo groups in western Assam and an estimated 900 rebels surrendered to government forces during the year.
"In the course of the conflict, the security forces in Assam have been accused of widespread human rights violations against civilians and suspected members of armed groups. In addition, there have been widespread allegations that surrendered members of ULFA have been used by the security forces to target members of ULFA and their relatives – around 20 in the past three years. In recent years talks have been ongoing between the governments of Bhutan and India to stop ULFA and NDFB from using bases inside Bhutan to launch attacks against security forces and economic targets in Assam." [Amnesty International, 4 January 2001]
"One hundred and sixty militants, 153 of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and seven of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, on Wednesday surrendered before Assam governor Lt. Gen. (Retd) S K Sinha and Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta here." [The Times of India, 7 December 2000]
"More than 2,000 ULFA and Bodo rebels have surrendered to the Indian authorities over the past two years, including a group of 250 ULFA guerrillas who laid down their arms on 14 August." [Janes Defence Weekly, 20 September 2000]
1999 Violence in the region continued in 1999 as ULFA battled police and former ULFA members working with government forces. The NSCN-Khaplang faction also fought with security forces, and Bodo and Santhal ethnic groups clashed.
1998 Following a government offensive against the largest insurgent group early in the year, the conflict reverted to its deadly combination of government-rebel skirmishes, abuses by security forces, and attacks by rebels on government officials and on rival insurgent forces and their communities.
1997 Insurgent attacks on government forces and public transportation, skirmishes between government and rebel forces, factional feuds among rival insurgent groups, and abuses by government forces all contributed to an escalation of regional violence in spite of cease-fires agreed to by some rebel groups.
1996 Tensions in border areas shared with Nagaland; ethnic clashes between Bodos and Adivasis killed at least 168 and created 168,000 refugees; ambushes, clashes between ULFA rebels and police and army, and attacks on civilians, killed dozens; Bodo rebel bombings, including a main railway in December, killed dozens more.
Number of Deaths:
Total: Approximately 20,000 to 25,000 have died in Nagaland alone according to media reports. The South Asia Terrorism Portal reports that over 13,000 people have died in the other northeastern states since 1992. Given the longevity of the conflict it is likely that overall at least 40,000 people have been killed since 1979.
“ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) is just one of many separatist movements that have lead to the deaths of more than 50,000 people in India’s seven northeastern states since India won its independence from Britain in 1947.” [Times Online, 6 April 2009]
"About 20,000 people have died in the rebellion in Christian-dominated Nagaland since it began more than five decades ago." [Biswajyoti Das, Reuters, May 11, 2005]
2008 More than 1130 conflict deaths have been reported across India’s northeastern states, a 13% increase over the 1,000 killed in 2007. Making up this total were 455 civilians, 46 security personnel, and 631 militants. Three states accounted for over 95% of the deaths, Assam with 387, Manipur with 499, and Nagaland with 201.
[Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal’s 2009 State Assessments for Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura]
2007 Over 1,000 people were reported killed throughout India’s northeast in 2007 including 453 civilians, 65 security personnel, and 501 militants. Assam, Manipur and Nagaland continued to be the areas with the largest number of casualties with Assam recording 437 deaths, Manipur, 408, and Nagaland, 108.
[Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)]
“An Indian Interior Ministry status report on internal security acknowledged that despite a massive anti-insurgency offensive, there was a sharp increase in overall violence in the country’s restive northeast in 2007 over the previous year. … The number of violent incidents in the northeastern states increased from 1,332 in 2003 to 1,489 in 2007. Civilian casualties recorded in 2003 were 494, 414 in 2005, 309 in 2006 and 498 in 2007. However, the number of security forces killed in action and extremists killed decreased between 2003 and 2007.” [United Press International, March 27, 2008]
2006 An estimated 627 were killed in clashes in the northeast in 2006. The provinces with the highest number of casualties were Manipur, 280, followed by 174 in Assam. (South Asia Terrorism Portal,
South Asia Terrorism Portal, accessed January 2007)
2005 Over 700 people were killed in rebel-government fighting, rebel attacks on political targets, inter-tribal and inter-rebel clashes and police suppression of street demonstrations across the northeast.
2004 At least 800 people, a mixture of civilians and combatants, were killed in 2004. This number will climb after casualties from attacks on rebel bases in Burma, Bhutan, and Bangladesh become known.
2003 The north-eastern states of Assam, Tripura and Manipur experienced the most violence, with approximately 1000 deaths a direct result of the fighting. Civilians and rebel fighters comprised 90 per cent of all reported deaths. A fourth state, Nagaland, also experienced insurgent violence and approximately 40 deaths.
[Source: South Asian Intelligence Review, Insurgency Related Killings 2003 - Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, and Tripura]
2002 Assam continued to be the state most affected by violence in north-eastern India, though casualties declined from 606 in 2001 to slightly over 400 in 2002. By the end of the year, the death toll in Manipur reached 150 and over 30 people were killed in Nagaland. Media reports claimed that approximately 50 people were killed in Tripura.
[Source: South Asian Intelligence Review, Assam Assessments - Year 2002, Manipur Assessment - Year 2002, Nagaland Assessment - Year 2002 ]
2001 There were more than 600 fatalities in Assam in 2001. In Nagaland, over one hundred people were killed in fighting and Manipur experienced over 250 combat deaths. Overall, approximately 1,400 people were killed.
2000 Over 1,700 people, including many civilians, were killed in fighting in 2000.
1999 Over 1,200 civilians, rebels and government forces were killed in 1999.
1998 More than 1,400 deaths in 1998, including over 600 civilian casualties were reported.
1997 A total of at nearly 1,700 deaths based on press, human rights group, and government tallies.
1996 At least 1,200 deaths from ethnic clashes, bombings, assassinations and isolated attacks. One report also cited over 300 deaths in refugee camps arising from the May ethnic clashes.
Political Developments:
2008 In a mid-year move that promised new hope for a peaceful settlement to conflict in the state of Assam, several field commanders of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) opted for a ceasefire and peace negotiations. Unfortunately the remaining members of the ULFA did not follow suit and violence continued through yearend. In Nagaland, a ceasefire was again extended and peace talks between the government and the NSCN-IM were held with only marginal progress reported. Nagaland Legislative Assembly elections saw some pre-poll violence but generally the elections were peaceful. Elections in the states of Meghalaya and Tripura were peaceful, reflecting the improved situation in both cases. Conversely, the state of Manipur saw deteriorating conditions and was brought under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act 1958 for another year. This act also applies to Assam and gives the armed forces wide powers to shoot, arrest and search in assisting the civil power.
“The insurgency in Manipur has, over the years, become increasingly homicidal, and trends in 2008 only demonstrate a further acceleration along this trajectory.” [Manipur Assessment – Year 2009, South Asia Terrorism Portal]
“A powerful separatist group in India’s restive northeast suffered a blow when half a dozen of its senior commanders decided to shun violence and declared a ceasefire, officials said on Tuesday.” [Reuters India, June 24, 2008]
“The improved security situation in Tripura was visible in the largely peaceful elections to the State Legislative Assembly on February 23, 2008. In earlier elections, militants had unleashed a reign of terror, significantly affecting voter participation.” [Tripura Assessment – Year 2009, South Asia Terrorism Portal]
2007 Peace talks failed to resume between the state government of Assam and the ULFA. The Nagaland ceasefire with the NSCN-IM was extended indefinitely. The leader of the NSCN-IM arrived in Delhi in December to continue peace negotiations amid little optimism for progress. Elections in Manipur were mired in violence after Naga separatists attempted to block the participation of mainstream political parties. Indian officials also announced Myanmar military mobilization against Assamese separatist groups whose bases are located in Myanmar.
“In Manipur, suspected separatists killed 15 soldiers on the 24th of February, following tense state elections that saw Naga rebels attempt to prevent participation of mainstream Indian parties. Earlier ambush on election vehicles killed 4 police, 2 civilians on the 9th of February.” [CrisisWatch, 01 March 2007]
2006 Peace talks were attempted between the Assam government and representatives from the ULFA, but with little success. In Nagaland, the ceasefire with the NSCN-IM was extended by six months, and the ceasefire with the NSCN-K extended by another year. Efforts have been made to better mark and enforce the borders between India and Bangladesh and Myanmar. In Manipur, large numbers of refugees have been returning to their native villages. The Union Government has sought to introduce a Surrender and Rehabilitation Reimbursement program in the provinces of Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.
"The Union Government brings Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh under the Surrender and Rehabilitation Reimbursement scheme apart from the States of Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura. The scheme, which will be retrospectively effective from April 2005, will provide a stipend of Rupees 2000 per month for three years to each surrendered militant and an immediate grant of Rupees 1.5 lakh." (South Asia Terrorism Portal, February 10, 2006)
2005 Peace talks between the Indian government and the NSCN-IM continued but remained stalled over the NSCN-IM’s demand for the creation of a "greater Nagaland" state within India. The NSCN-IM extended a 1997 ceasefire for six months in July. The National Democratic Front of Bodoland signed a ceasefire agreement with the federal government while the Mizoram state government and the Bru National Liberation Front agreed to a peace accord ending eight years of conflict between the two sides. For the first time since 1992, peace talks were held between the Indian federal government and the United Liberation Front of Assam. A wave of protest swept West Bengal in September as tens of thousands of people belonging to the Rajbongshi ethnic group demanded an independent state.
"The insurgent group, United Liberation Front of Assam’s decision to initiate peace talks with the Centre [the federal government] has brought a ray of hope for the people of Assam, battered by 26 years of militancy. [Rediff.com, October 14, 2005]
"A leading separatist group in the north-eastern Indian state of Assam has signed a ceasefire agreement with the federal government. The National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) has been fighting for a separate homeland since 1986. Under the truce deal, the NDFB has agreed to give up violence and stay in special camps run by the police." [BBC News, May 25, 2005]
"The main sticking point in talks has been New Delhi’s refusal to accept the NSCN’s (I-M) demand to merge Naga-dominated areas, including districts from neighbouring northeastern states, into a ‘Greater Nagaland.’" [Biswajyoti Das, Reuters, May 11, 2005]
"The Mizoram government and the underground Bru National Liberation Front today signed a peace accord to end eight years of militancy following the exodus in late 1997 of Brus to neighbouring Tripura due to ethnic tension with the Mizos. The MoU will facilitate the repatriation of thousands of Bru refugees now staying in six relief camps in neighbouring North Tripura district... As per the provisions of the MoU, the BNLF militants will lay down arms and come overground to lead normal lives. The state government, apart from extending financial aid for the rehabilitation and resettlement of the militants and the refugees, will give a special development package for the Bru inhabitated areas." [Outlook India, April 26, 2005]
2004 In a change of policy, the Indian government announced it would meet with any rebel group that disavowed violence when previously it was willing to meet only with rebel groups beginning to disarm. Several rebel groups announced ceasefires and, as a result, negotiations between the Indian government and several rebel groups took place and hundreds of rebels surrendered to Indian authorities. Rebels in Assam rejected all offers of peace talks initiated by the Indian Government. Ties between India and the Bhutanese and Burmese governments grew as both foreign governments continued to attack rebel bases in their territories and, in support, India pledged additional training and military aid. India and Bangladesh also undertook joint missions against northeastern rebels for the first time. The Indian and US militaries began war games in India’s northeastern jungles and both countries pledged to help train the other’s military in jungle-fighting as part of the "war on terror". In a visit to Assam, India’s Prime Minister ruled out any discussion of sovereignty with separatists.
"In their first-ever joint operation, Indian and Bangladeshi security forces on Tuesday gunned down Manoranjan Gosain, alias Mrinal, the chief of the New Biplabi Communist Party (M-L) — which is outlawed in Bangladesh." [Hindustan Times, September 22, 2004]
"India’s prime minister said Saturday his government was ready to talk to any militant group, including those in Kashmir, abandoning previous preconditions that the rebels must first disarm. However Manmohan Singh, at his first press conference since taking office on May 22, added that he expected the militants to ‘eschew the path of violence’." [Agence France Presse, September 4, 2004]
"The breakaway Biswamohan faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) today surrendered before the Tripura Governor DN Sahaya. A total of 72 militants including 22 women cadres laid down their firearms in a formal surrender ceremony held at Arundhutinagar Police-line. The group was led by six top commanders of NLFT Biswamohyan faction – self -styled vice-president Kamini Debbarma, general secretary Mantu Koloy, finance secretary Bishnuprasad Jamatia, assistant finance secretary Dhanu Koloy, chief of army staff Benoy Debbarma and deputy army chief of the organization Sanjiv Debbarma." [Assam Tribune, May 6, 2004]
2003 Peace initiatives of insurgent groups and government officials arose throughout the year. The main rebel group in Nagaland, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (I-M) met with the Indian government in January for unprecedented peace talks, but several issues remained highly contentious, including the creation of a "Greater Nagaland." The Bodoland Liberation Tiger Force, based in Assam, signed a peace agreement with the Indian government in January 2003, which held throughout the year. Also, in early 2004, one faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura indicated a willingness for peace talks with the government. Following his capture in December, Bhimkanta Buragohain, the founder of the United Liberation Front of Asom (Ulfa) called upon his supporters to lay down their weapons and pursue their objectives through peaceful means.
"Police said a faction of the outlawed National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) led by Nayanbasi Jamatiya had written a formal letter to the government over the weekend offering to talk peace. ...The other NLFT faction headed by Biswamohan Debbarma has so far not responded to the government's peace overtures." [keralanext.com, January 12, 2004]
"Buragohain [the founder of ULFA] was shown by the Indian army in the north-eastern state of Assam, where he urged his supporters to lay down their arms and begin talks with the Indian government. ... ‘Armed rebellion cannot bring independence,’ the 78-year-old rebel leader said. The Indian army says Buragohain was handed over to them by the Bhutanese Army on Thursday." [BBC News, December 26, 2003]
"Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on Wednesday virtually ruled out the demand for a greater Nagaland saying there was no political consensus for changing the boundaries of states in the Northeast." [rediff.com, October 29, 2003]
"Negotiations with the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (I-M) have made major headway in recent times with the leaders of the Naga rebel group visiting Delhi in January 2003 for the first time in almost 37 years for peace talks. Since then the Centre’s interlocutors, led by K Padmanabhaiah, had four rounds of talks with NSCN (I-M) representatives." [rediff.com, October 27, 2003]
"The agreement was signed in Delhi on Monday between senior officials of the Indian home ministry and leaders of the Bodoland Liberation Tiger Force (BLTF). ... The accord sets up a Bodoland Territorial Council in Assam offering considerable local autonomy to more than 3,000 villages that are home to Bodo tribesmen. ... However, not all Bodo groups are happy with the accord. The separatist National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) rejects the agreement." [BBC News, February 10, 2003]
2002 Significant steps toward peace were made this year. Two factions of the Kuki National Front, a rebel group that operates throughout north-eastern India, agreed to cooperate with one another to continue peace negotiations with the federal government. The Bodoland Liberation Tigers Force (BLTF) committed to peace talks in August after the authorities in Assam agreed to provide autonomy to the Bodos tribes people. Despite these achievements, however, India’s relations with bordering states remained tense as the Indian government accused the governments of Bangladesh and Bhutan of knowingly providing sanctuary to rebel groups active in north-eastern India. In addition, some reports claimed the Indian government viewed Pakistan and China to be supporting rebel groups in an attempt to destabilize the region.
"One of the most powerful militant groups in India's north-eastern Assam state says it is ready to sign a peace agreement with Delhi. ‘We have agreed to give up the demand for a separate homeland in favour of a more realistic settlement,’ a spokesman for the Bodoland Liberation Tigers Force (BLTF), Maino Daimary, told the BBC." [BBC News, August 13, 2002]
"India is putting pressure on neighbouring Bangladesh and Bhutan to destroy rebel bases it says are being run in their territory by guerrilla groups from north-east India." [BBC News, November 4, 2002]
"New Delhi views the insurgencies in the north-east not as expressions of local discontent but as part of wider efforts at destablization by China and Pakistan. For New Delhi, the north-east is a hotbed of Pakistani intelligence activity." [Overseas Development Institute, Humanitarian Practice Network Report, April 3, 2002]
2001 Early in 2001 an Indian government agreement with rebels to extend a cease fire beyond the state of Nagaland was opposed by the administrations and people of neighbouring states. Between May and July as many as 18 people were killed in demonstrations against the extension. By the end of July the government reversed its decision on the extended cease fire.
"The Indian Government has backed out of a controversial cease fire deal with separatist Naga rebels in the country’s northeast. The government says the cease fire will now be restricted to Nagaland and will not include areas outside the state where the rebels operate. Delhi signed a deal with the separatist National Socialist Council of Nagaland to extend the cease fire beyond the boundaries of the state. But Delhi’s move to broaden the cease fire was met with resistance in the neighbouring states of Manipur, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh. Eighteen people were killed in violent protests in Manipur and homes and offices of politicians and officials were burnt down." [CNN, July 27, 2001]
2000 The United Liberation Front of Assam (UFA) said it would hold talks with Delhi under UN auspices only if Assam’s independence were discussed. Meanwhile, the Indian government and the Bodo Liberation Tigers agreed to extend their cease-fire by one year in September. Early in 2001, the Indian government proposed unconditional peace talks with the ULFA in an effort to end two decades of insurgency.
1999 A 1997 cease-fire, which has been observed by most insurgent and government forces, was extended in 1999 to July 2000.
"On August 1, 1997, a cease-fire between the Government and the Isak-Muivah faction of the NSCN (NCSN-IM) entered into effect and largely has been observed by the Government and all insurgent groups in the state. During the latter part of the year, the cease-fire was extended through July 31, 2000." [India Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1999, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, US State Department, 2000]
"In May 2000, the BLT - a group allegedly supported by Indian Security forces – began tripartite talks with the Government of India and the Government of Assam. At the same time a ceasefire was initiated. [Amnesty International, 4 January 2000]
1998 In mid-1998 the government extended a ceasefire with one Nagaland rebel group and oversaw the surrender of nearly 200 members of several insurgent forces.
"In July and August 184 insurgents from the ULFA, the Bodo Liberation Tigers and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland surrendered to government forces." [The Hindustan Times, August 13, 1998]
"The Indian government has extended by one more year the ceasefire with rebel groups in the state of Nagaland who have been fighting for a Christian homeland in the region bordering Myanmar (Burma) for almost 50 years." [Jane’s Defence Weekly, 12 August 1998, p.16]
"What exactly do the Nagas want? Officially, complete independence because, as so many of them keep on repeating, ‘we have never been Indian’. The trouble is that the rebels are becoming increasingly isolated. Now that Beijing has normalised its relations with the Indian ‘enemy’, the Chinese aid they used to get has dwindled. Neighbouring Bangladesh, where they once trained with the blessing of the local authorities, no longer welcomes them. In Burma, where they have established a rear base, the army has organised operations against them. Within the space of a few years, shifting alliances have completely changed the geo-strategic landscape of the 1960s and 1970s. Do the Nagas have any choice but to accept a compromise? And what more than a ceasefire can they negotiate?" ["Nagaland's forgotten war smoulders on," Bruno Philip, Guardian Weekly, April 28, 1998]
1997 The creation in January of a "Unified Command" counter insurgency system combining Army and police operations as well as an India-Bangladesh agreement brought additional pressures on rebel groups. An August 1 ceasefire between Indian government forces and one separatist faction (NSCN-I/M) was extended for an additional three-months in October.
"A ceasefire agreement between the Indian government and the rebel National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isaac-Muviah) has been extended by three months. The original ceasefire expired on 31 October." [Jane’s Defence Weekly, 12 November 1997, p27] The orginal ceasefire, negotiated with the support of a US Baptist church group in Atlanta (the Baptist Peace Fellowship), began August 1.
"The Bodo Liberation Tiger Force ... announced a ceasefire on January 21. The BLTF, allegedly responsible for most of the major incidents of violence in the State during the past one month, in a statement faxed to a few local newspaper offices, said the cease-fire had been announced in view of the appeals made by the Union Home Minister." [Assam Online, Vol 1:82, January 13, 1997]
1996 The Asom Gana Parishad-led government assumed power in the state of Assam in 1996.
Background:
The numerous ethnic groups of India’s northeastern states, many of them with long histories as independent or autonomous regions, have demanded greater autonomy or independence from India ever since regional incorporation (at times through military invasion and occupation as in the case of the Nagaland) into the Indian federal state during the 1950s. A large influx of Bengalis and other political refugees into the seven relatively less populated states of the northeast region of India during both the creation of Pakistan and the 1971 secession of Bangladesh, as well as subsequent economic refugees, further aggravated tensions with indigenous ethnic groups. Demands for independence arose from a sense that the indigenous population was losing cultural identity and political power and not receiving its share of the region’s resources. These feelings were fuelled by various Indian governments that sought to suppress indigenous cultures through assimilation into the majority Hindu culture and carried out discriminatory economic and political policies. Ethnic-based independence groups, such as the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), founded in 1979, the Bodo Security Force, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and the All Tripura Tiger Force led the insurgency against the Indian government. In the early 1990s, after direct rule by the national government was imposed on the state of Assam, a series of government successes appeared to sideline the ULFA but by 1996 violence was on the rise throughout the region. The 1997 creation in Assam of a “Unified Command” counterinsurgency system combining Army and police operations, as well as government agreements with neighbouring states to thwart cross-border activity, brought additional pressures on the insurgent groups. A 1997 ceasefire between the government and one faction of the NSCN has been extended several times and was extended indefinitely in 2007. Since 1998 continuing pressures on the insurgent groups has resulted in the surrender of more than 2,000 ULFA and Bodo rebels. In the following years the conflict intensity varied as ceasefires were called and broken and as peace negotiations between the government and various rebel factions continued but failed to produce formal agreements. Additionally, the Burmese, Bhutanese and Bangladeshi militaries were drawn into the conflict, participating in joint missions and training with the Indian government.
"The key to a safer future for the north-east lies in a better mix of Indian policies, the principal ingredients of which are: economic development, focussing especially on the needs of the poor and socially neglected; greater tolerance of local control; a willingness to work with local leaders; a strengthened democratic process and stronger civil society institutions; and more intensive efforts at reconciliation." [Overseas Development Institute, Humanitarian Practice Network Report, April 3, 2002]
"Assamese nationalism arises from resentment against the large influx of Bengalis and other groups from all over India. The first major influx began with the partition of Bengal and the creation of East Pakistan, when Bengali Hindus migrated from East Bengal into West Bengal and Assam. Later, during the struggle for Bangladesh in 1971, millions of Bengalis -- mainly Hindus and some Muslims -- fled to West Bengal and Assam again. While most of these refugees returned after 1972, thousands remained in India. Subsequently, thousands more Bengali Muslims began to infiltrate Assam to escape the economic hardships of the newly formed state of Bangladesh. The creation of the Assamese into a minority in their own state and the perception that they have failed to obtain their fair share of the benefits of the oil, tea and timber resources of their own state, eventually led to the demand for independence. ...
The devastating military blows inflicted by [early 1990s government] military operations have brought ULFA to the negotiating table with the promise of government amnesty if their separatist movement ceases. The success of these negotiations, however, are by no means assured." [Raju G.C. Thomas, "Secessionist Movements in South Asia," Survival, Vol 36:2, Summer 1994]
Arms Sources:
Government: See Kashmir
Rebels: The rebels reportedly receive financial support from expatriate Indians in Malaysia. Like other rebel groups in southern Asia, Assam rebels likely obtain weapons via the interwoven drug and illicit arms trade. In addition, some reports suggest that rebel groups steal large quantity of weapons from security forces. The Indian government has accused Bhutan and Bangladesh of providing arms to rebel groups. China has also been reported to have supplied small arms to Nagaland rebels.
[Sources: South Asia Intelligence Review, 2002, Assessment for Nagas in India, Minorities At Risk Project (MAR), December 31, 2000]
New reports of illegal arms smuggled to the rebel groups in India’s northeast emerged in 2004 following the discovery of a large arms cache in Bangladesh, believed to be bound for India’s northeast. The cache included 10,000 weapons, 5000 grenades and 300,000 rounds of ammunition. Since this was one of many caches seized in Bangladesh this year, its discovery led to fears that the rebel groups were better armed than previously believed.
"In New Delhi, it is felt that these arms were to be routed to the country’s northeastern state via Bangladesh, which has become a major gun-running point for shipments of arms routed by anti-India elements." [Webindia, May 21, 2004]
"Thailand and India have held the first meeting of a new Joint Working Group on Security (JWGS) Bangkok and may initiate joint naval patrols aimed at interdicting smuggling and illicit arms shipments from southern Thailand ... The maritime traffic of weapons from Thailand’s Andaman Sea coast to insurgent groups in India’s troubled northeast was one issue on the agenda ..." [Janes’s Defence Weekly, June 11, 2003]
"A Tripura State Rifles official said the rebels had fled with a large quantity of captured weapons and ammunition." [washingtonpost.com, August 20, 2002]
Economic Factors:
The groups fighting for independence accuse the Indian government of exploiting the region’s rich mineral resources, neglecting its economy and flooding the state with migrant settlers. [Sources: Amnesty International, 4 January 2001; washingtonpost.com, August 20, 2002]
Oil is a major issue in the conflict in Nagaland since the region reportedly sits on a multi-billion dollar oil reserve. Tribes in Nagaland fear that when oil extraction begins they will be displaced and leaders insist that they will not allow their people to relocate before assurances that they will get new land, not just monetary payments. Nagas also want assurances that any oil development will not harm the environment. If oil extraction begins without an agreement with the Naga people, an increase in violence in Nagaland appears likely. Economic discrimination against minorities in the region is widespread.
"It [the ULFA] blames New Delhi for taking away the region’s considerable oil resources without helping it to develop." ('Indian rebels blow up oil pipeline', Reuters, Aljazeera.net, Sunday 22 January 2006)
"There has been limited economic development in the northeast, despite the changes that have occurred in the rest of India. The Nagas are disadvantaged due to past and current political and economic discrimination, mostly from the majority community." [Assessment for Nagas in India, Minorities At Risk Project (MAR), December 31, 2000]
"Naga leaders say the oil will stay in the ground until they have guarantees that anyone forced to move will get new land, not just cash. They also want assurances that their lush jungles, rivers and rice paddies will be protected against oil spills and other environmental hazards. And they want a share of the profit to go to tribal councils for local development." [LA Times, September 16, 2004]
