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Bangladesh Economic & Infrastructure Development - Updates & Discussions

Walton has claimed to manufacture tons of things. How much they actually manufacturer is a question tho.

Doesn't that mean that we have more money and establish the fact that Indians are miser...8-)

Misers we are aye:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...in-2018-idc/articleshow/67957147.cms?from=mdr

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP44948519

Smartphone sales (2018):

India = 142 million
BD = 7 million

India average price quoted as 158 USD per smartphone

Seems BD at that price range (and even below it) suffered dropping sales in 2018....and now rebounding because of economy-rate cheapo "smartphones":

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/smartphone-market-bangladesh-grew-45-yoy-q1-2019/

Taking 2018 average BD smartphone to be costing the highest of the quoted range (75 dollars).

Thats 22.5 billion sales in India versus 525 million USD sales in BD.

Comes to about 5 times spent on smartphones per capita.

Still think Taka nominal GDP can be converted 1:1 to USD at same credibility with other countries (esp SDDS standard)? :D

Then the noakhalia idiot blabs with pictures and posturing from "trials" LOL :rofl::

https://www.thedailystar.net/business/walton-kicks-trial-assembly-handsets-1467250

We all know what the sustained success rate of walton "trials" (when it comes to any production or any export) is in the end. Still waiting on those refrigerators to Thailand from 2015 :rofl:.

The company that still does not release a basic revenue report lol (for 5+ years now?). Continually doing trials and brochures....and now some fellow scam company "symphony" has run roughshod over them on cheap <5% MVA (guess they realised the "trial" nonsense gets nowhere).

Then you really want to compare with (actual yearly financial report release) companies that actually know what they are doing when they quote what the MVA reality is where they operate and how they plan to expand it?:

https://telecom.economictimes.india...ing-in-india-setups-three-new-plants/63677803

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...inted-circuit-boards/articleshow/63690249.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ake-in-india-a-boost/articleshow/63552812.cms

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/make-indi...mestic-mobile-components-manufacturing-766171

https://www.electronicsb2b.com/eb-specials/industry-report/where-is-the-indian-pcb-industry-headed/

I mean can anyone find just one BD article that even talks about this stuff in the numbers that matter?:

========================

As per industry sources, China's Oppo and Vivo have also started PCB assembling in India, but are yet to make formal announcements. Queries sent to these companies went unanswered. Korean handset major Samsung has been doing PCB assembly in the country since 2006.

PCBs make up about 50% of the cost of making a phone. South Korea’s Samsung is among the only major brand that assembles PCBs in India. BCD on populated PCBs, camera modules, and connectors will push local assembly or manufacturing of these components, as companies who make here will get a price advantage over those who don’t.

"Xiaomi's PCBA announcement should make it the second largest brand in terms of value addition in India after Samsung. It should also increase their value addition from single digit to close to 15%. This is critical for Xiaomi as sourcing and ironing out supply chain issues is very critical for its product planning
," Traun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint Research said. "Local value addition in India was 10% in CY 2017 from 5.6% in CY 2016," he added.


===========

Does BD have even one trade fair on actually making and selling SMT machines (forget showing SMT "trials" in some failed scam company) yourself in the country?:


Also calls @Armchair as a "sanghi" first thing:

First, correct your flag. Second, turn off your rental laptop at the Sangh Shakha and go home. Enough fun for today.

just because Armchair doesnt buy that its real manufacturing....you can't make up this emotional twats reactions lol. One cursory look at @Armchair posts will tell you otherwise:

https://defence.pk/pdf/search/17188035/

@bluesky can you tell me why ppl from noakhalia are known for just religious riots, extreme stupidity and why they are clustering in sanctuary cities in US (after overstaying their visa lottery?)...and braying about bhadralok tea....and making enemies out of everyone that simply questions them?
 
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@bluesky can you tell me why ppl from noakhalia are known for just religious riots, extreme stupidity and why they are clustering in sanctuary cities in US (after overstaying their visa lottery?)...and braying about bhadralok tea....and making enemies out of everyone that simply questions them?
Noakhilla people have a ghetto mentality. They try not to mix with others in BD and most other people also avoid Noakhailla people. While in Bd I had little chance to mix with them. In Japan, I try to avoid them, I am not alone. I was not surprised to know that @Bilal9 is a pure blooded Noakhailla. He shows this character very clearly being self-centered.
 
BD could claim it spends 15 billion or 15 trillion dollars a year on whatever....numbers from BD govt don't matter.

How much 3rd party-vetted hard stuff do you get in return for it?

Not very much:

https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?category=3106

https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?category=2104

Gets even worse when you see the actual patents you get granted in the field too.

Stop changing the subject.

The nuclear plant is part of something much bigger in BD.

BD is taking it's nuclear tech expertise to another level with Roopur.
 
Even a former secretary of the statistics division claimed last year at a citizens' dialogue that she had seen how development statistics were polished or doctored during her tenure in the civil service.

Say it isn't so!

The above says of the reality of BBS falsification all the time. It is too shameful for any nation for this kind of altercation. I am always personally skeptical about the GDP figure.

Just give it time...everything airs out much better with time in the end. As more reality catches up and entrenches compared to the drama and dreams (that elites use to buy time till they find some other snake oil that sells better).

Well I think it's not possible to fudge GDP growth for a long time.

You can't...any fudging BD is doing now (at such early stage quite unnecessarily) will catch up with it later. It does not have a massive forex pile in between like China does (if people want to compare there).

If they claim growth is 8% then the growth can be 7% or even 6.5% but it's certainly not 4% or negative like Mr. Idune used to claim.

How did you come to that conclusion? What does real GDP growth of say 4% compared to 6.5% to 7% etc even look like for the 95% of people?

You understand that 4% growth era can be lot better than a 8% growth era...depending on where the actual growth is happening (say hard capex fuelled rather than equity inflation fuelled).

This is why its good to look at the lowest broad base input that cannot be lied about (like energy consumption, exports, investment, physical output parameters).

When you do that....... BD is not growing (when you correlate with other countries that went thru same stage) anywhere close to what it claims. What the actual real growth is....just depends on what clarity and scope of standards BD chooses to use to measure and implement w.r.t GDP.

They very key thing people should understand is that GDP is an ESTIMATE. It has intrinsic confidence and credibility intervals (like any estimate)....but those are not overtly calculated....but they can be roughly gauged.

In BD case its very wide and skewed towards a lower amount given its PPP ratio, use of only one industry (reliant 0 tariff access in its major markets) to gauge its exchange rate....and the faultiness of applying that exchange rate to Taka economy with same credibility implication as every other developing peer.

If you look at GDP to tax ratio then you'll see it increasing.

You mean other way around? What does this have to do with the GDP? Given BD corruption level, it would do better improving (delivery wise) on the previous extraction rate margin rather than grabbing more. One would assume private sector with even basic competition returns much more to the BD economy for every taka collected/spent....compared to an atrocious govt that runs 95% win elections and uses ham fisted excise tax policy to sleazily keep all labour pools contained to just one industry (and I suppose labour export too) for forex sector.

Exports are increasing.

Not really. Nowhere near enough (given low base still) to correlate to the GDP growth. And BD could muster from its earnings in the last decade "boom" or so about 2 dollars per person in reverse FDI (very key in growing more industry from foreign know-how and expertise)....when it should really be more like 5 times that level at least.

It really does not add up (it means lot of the profit buffer is just soaked up internally to keep status quo)

Then you refer to others as misers. Its really funny hearing that from a 360 million dollar FDI external stock country.

Forex were increasing couple years back but not now due to high import payments.

BD was not posting huge surpluses or anything in the earlier era. The stagnancy now is more or less inevitable given it is running up against the RMG model ceiling (against lower labour cost with 0 tariff rate vs chinese bulk capital inertia) faster than it can diversify/harness into other streams.

This means to grow forex, BD must get more investors (its expats like India has notably done with NRI bonds....and also credible institutional investors..FDI+FPI etc). But that needs a govt that knows how to actually improve its credit rating, private investor confidence and base credibility etc. Running a 95% win election and dbling down on status quo and simply handing out brochures and fliers for "Walton" type scam groups.... hoping something miraculous clicks ....simply doesnt cut it.

Either you put country first, or you put your party+cushy living first. Which one is it for BAL?

Also GDP PPP figures are also increasing.

Nowhere near suggesting the growth rate of GDP nominal claimed.

It's certain that BD is improving.

Sure. But how much it is versus how much it ought to (with what it has) is something BD has to really explore now....rather than shy away from. Otherwise it will catch up with you later in bad way.
 
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This is why its good to look at the lowest broad base input that cannot be lied about (like energy consumption, exports, investment, physical output parameters).
I am not saying BD is not falsifying the GDP figure but the growth is not seen in daily life. However, one part of GDP growth seems to be arising from the infusion of foreign money every year in many prestige projects like Pyra Port, MetroLine, bridges, Karnaphuli Tunnel, etc. which are a part of the secondary sector of the economy.

Construction sector may not improve the lifestyle immediately but it is providing salaried employment to some people which creates additional demand for goods. So, the supply side gets a boost. This is how foreign construction money is also helping to a GDP growth but the lifestyle remains the same, at least for now.

What do you think about this? I wonder, how long this foreign money will keep on entering the market.
 
I am not saying BD is not falsifying the GDP figure but the growth is not seen in daily life. However, one part of GDP growth seems to be arising from the infusion of foreign money every year in many prestige projects like Pyra Port, MetroLine, bridges, Karnaphuli Tunnel, etc. which are a part of the secondary sector of the economy.

Construction sector may not improve the lifestyle immediately but it is providing salaried employment to some people which creates additional demand for goods. So, the supply side gets a boost. This is how foreign construction money is also helping to a GDP growth but the lifestyle remains the same, at least for now.

What do you think about this? I wonder, how long this foreign money will keep on entering the market.

Well foreign money comes from exports, remittances (pooled and then invested) and loans (taken direct from an outside provider) mostly. FDI is still very low....and BD reverse FDI is basically zero.

Of course vast part of this is not in Taka...and has to be converted to Taka for use inside BD. The more it happens organically over time (through consumer+commercial demand and supply without too much artificial push/pull from govt or other such things)...the more BD economy when using some foreign exchange rate for final valuation will make sense.

As long as BD economy is behind world average (and then most developed countries), this will be recurring phenomenon and even grow in intensity since BD forex liquidity and world global integration is still quite limited.

The intensity is just different than you remember (from before) because BD is opening up to the world more compared to before and maybe there is issue of it not having more competitive "large scale" hands (business wise) outside of the govt....to better fill up the medium and small scale kind of foreign investment culture. So everything comes through one type of channel broadly only when it isn't being dispersed at the smallest hand-mouth level (like with remittance flow and RMG earnings etc). BD will need internal structural diversity as well to get the appropriate economic diversity in the "middle" economy stuff over time. It needs lot more commerce (with good basic know how and good links with providers of further know how) of all kind of scale....otherwise this extreme thing will be too dependent on the overall elasticity of the govt (which is not good in any developing country).
 
Well I think it's not possible to fudge GDP growth for a long time. If they claim growth is 8% then the growth can be 7% or even 6.5% but it's certainly not 4% or negative like Mr. Idune used to claim. If you look at GDP to tax ratio then you'll see it increasing. Exports are increasing. Forex were increasing couple years back but not now due to high import payments. Also GDP PPP figures are also increasing. Purchasing power is difficult to fudge. It's certain that BD is improving. Whether they are improving as fast as BAL want us to believe is debatable and the answer is perhaps not. But it's certainly not doing worse than before.
You can also co-relate our national budget with GDP. In 2018-2019 year our national budget is equivalent of 55 billion dollar(4.65 trillion Taka) at market exchange rate and GDP estimated by IMF for 2018 was 285 billion dollar. Now Bangladesh has one of the lowest tax to GDP ratio in the world and 90 percent of budget money sourced from within the country. Given such circumstances, is it possible for BD to present 55 billion dollar budget with just 100 or even 200 billion dollar GDP? Our tax to GD ratio is just 10 percent and national budget is 19 of GDP. With just 10 percent tax to GDP base, you can give budget maximum 20 percent of GDP with borrowing from internal and external sources, but it is impossible to raise that to 30 to 50 percent of GDP. So unless BD's GDP is anywhere near 300 billion, 55 billion dollar budget do not add up.
 
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You can also co-relate our national budget with GDP. In 2018-2019 year our national budget is 55 billion dollar and GDP estimated by IMF for 2018 was 285 billion dollar. Now Bangladesh has one of the lowest tax to GDP ratio in the world and 90 percent of budget money sourced from within the country. Given such circumstances, is it possible for BD to present 55 billion dollar budget with just 100 or even 200 billion dollar GDP? Our tax to GD ratio is just 10 percent and national budget is 19 of GDP. With just 10 percent tax to GDP base, you can give budget maximum 20 percent of GDP with borrowing from internal and external sources, but it is impossible to raise that to 30 to 50 percent of GDP. So unless BD's GDP is anywhere near 300 billion, 55 billion dollar budget do not add up.

Speaking as though BD govt collects in USD instead of Taka.

Try convert those claimed Taka's into USD. Just try.

The whole issue here is the applicability of converting anything macro-scale in Taka to a USD amount (based on exchange rate of just few kinds of non-diverse + heavily globalist aided transaction BD does with rest of the world).

BD effective inflation applies to everything Taka wise....the Taka is the currency the BD govt prints and actions levers on internally.

This is a key reason why BD cannot operationalise any real buying power in 3rd party disciplines.
 
https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/china-rmg-factories-may-shift-bangladesh-1752367

12:00 AM, June 02, 2019 / LAST MODIFIED: 08:10 AM, June 02, 2019
China RMG factories may shift to Bangladesh

They eye joint ventures as trade war bites

Bangladesh is still a competitive place for setting up factories because of lower cost of production. Photo: Star/File
china_rmg_factories.jpg

Bangladesh is still a competitive place for setting up factories because of lower cost of production. Photo: Star/File

Refayet Ullah Mirdha and Jagaran Chakma

Some Chinese garment makers want to set up factories under joint venture in Bangladesh as they see the country as a competitive destination to relocate plants amid raging US-China trade war and the rising cost in the world’s second largest economy.

Chinese textile and garment industry owners have invested heavily in neighbouring Vietnam and Cambodia in the last two decades, but now they are focusing to shift their factories to Myanmar and Bangladesh.

The reasons for the change in focus include a lack of skilled workforce in Chinese textile and garment industry, rising cost of production, shifting industrial base to industries such as IT and over-investment in Vietnam and Cambodia where labour costs are lower.

“Now they are trying to shift the sunset industries to Myanmar and Bangladesh,” said Faisal Samad, vice-president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

The sunset industry refers to an industry that has existed for a long time and that is less successful and making less profit than previously.


Samad met with some entrepreneurs of Hong Kong-based Chinese Manufacturers’ Association during their visit to Dhaka from May 22 to May 26.

The entrepreneurs came to Bangladesh to explore investment opportunities.

“Bangladesh is still a competitive place compared to China, Vietnam and Cambodia for setting up industries because of lower cost of production, trade privileges granted in major markets such as the EU and China,” he said.

“They are interested to set up factories in fabrics, garment, printing and dyeing,” Samad said.

So far, Bangladesh hasn’t allowed foreign investment in basic apparels, limiting their presence in high-end and value-added textile and garment items.

A Chinese garment manufacturer, Robert Lok, managing director of Merit Tat International Ltd, said he was looking for potential business partner in Bangladesh to make fresh order for his brand. He was part of the Hong Kong delegation.

“I have seen very young and energetic labour force in Bangladesh in the readymade garment sector. Their skill and the quality of work is really world class,” he told The Daily Star.

He believes that his business will be viable if he manufactures in Bangladesh to export to the US and other countries.

“If I manufacture here, the price will be cheaper than in China,” he said, adding that the Chinese garment industry might be affected by the ongoing trade war.

Lok plans to make fresh order with potential garment manufacturers in Bangladesh before deciding to relocate his factory.

“Of course, I will tie up in joint venture with Bangladeshi partners in the future,” the manufacturer said, adding that some local garment giants have shown interest to team up with him to set up factories.

According to Lok, Merit Tat International has office and owns outlets in New York and Western Europe.

Lok said there is huge population in Bangladesh and it is advantageous for the sector to manage workers.

Moreover, the wage of the workers is lower compared to Vietnam and Cambodia.

Another Hong Kong-based Chinese garment maker Francis Man Piu Cheng said he was impressed with Bangladesh’s garment factories as they have skilled workers and mature management, which will be helpful to relocate his manufacturing plant to Bangladesh.

“I have already made some investment in the garment sector in Cambodia, but there is a lack of mature management there. So, I am thinking of establishing manufacturing plant in Bangladesh with potential partners.”

Cheng, also the chairman of fashion apparel group Wing Tai Asia, talked to three garment manufacturers in Bangladesh and his Bangladeshi counterparts have also shown interest.

He, however, expressed concern about the higher lead time in the garment sector in Bangladesh.

Most garment manufac-turers in China are worried about the ongoing US-China trade war, he said.
 
Moreover, the wage of the workers is lower compared to Vietnam and Cambodia.

That is literally the Million Dollar Benefit. And therein lies the key to success for apparel businesses from China and HK. However JV's with local businesses should be encouraged rather than outright foreign FDI. That way some of the investments (and profit) remain with local investors.

Which can then be re-invested back into the local economy.
 
12:00 AM, June 02, 2019 / LAST MODIFIED: 01:39 AM, June 02, 2019
Credit growth sinks to 56-month low
https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/credit-growth-sinks-56-month-low-1752361



credit_growth_sinks.jpg


AKM Zamir Uddin

Private sector credit growth sank to a 56-month low of 12.07 percent in April on the back of the ongoing liquidity crunch in the banking sector, in an ominous development that stands to slow down the economy’s tremendous growth momentum.

The growth is 4.43 percentage points less than the central bank’s target of 16.5 percent for the second half of the fiscal year. In the last two fiscal years, private sector credit growth hovered between 16 percent and 18 percent, only to dip at the turn of the fiscal year.

The declining trend will continue in the months ahead as the government is not bothered about addressing the problem, said Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh.

One of the main reasons for the low credit growth is banks’ subdued deposit growth. “Neither the government nor the central bank has taken the matter into account,” he said.

Against the backdrop, many local businesses are now borrowing from foreign lenders because of the existing liquidity crisis and high lending rate, Mansur said.


“But, taking funds from foreign lenders is widening the financial risk.”

If the exchange rate of the taka drops against the US dollar, businesses would have to pay more, which would then have an adverse impact on the foreign exchange reserves, Mansur said.

The lower credit growth is an indication that the expansion of the private sector will grind to a halt in the near future, which will subsequently hit the GDP growth, said Mansur, also a former economist of the International Monetary Fund.

The economy is expected to expand at more than 8 percent this fiscal year and the next, catapulting it to the top three fastest growing nations in the world.

Without further ado, the government should cut the interest rate on national savings tools to stave off brewing tension in the private sector, Mansur said.

“This is pivotal to strengthening the liquidity base of lenders.”

The continuous slide in credit growth has already created a vulnerable situation for both banks and the economy, said AB Mirza Azizul Islam, a former adviser to a caretaker government.

If the trend of declining credit growth prolongs, profitability in the banking sector will shrink as lending is banks’ main income generator.

“Banks will have to recover their default loans at any cost to get rid of the liquidity crisis,” Islam added.

The majority of the banks are now under pressure to adjust the loan-deposit ratio as per the central bank’s instruction, said MA Halim Chowdhury, managing director of Pubali Bank.

Banks are now disbursing fresh loans in a cautious manner to maintain the ratio, which has ultimately hit the credit growth.

“Besides, the agreement between the government and the private banks’ sponsors to keep the interest rates for saving and lending at 6 and 9 percent respectively has also created a physiological problem for lenders.”

Many lenders are unwilling to disburse loans at 9 percent interest rate as they have to gather funds at a much higher rate, he added.
 
You can't...any fudging BD is doing now (at such early stage quite unnecessarily) will catch up with it later. It does not have a massive forex pile in between like China does (if people want to compare there).
You mean BBS have only started to fudge data now? BD have shown high growth rate 6% for decades.
How did you come to that conclusion? What does real GDP growth of say 4% compared to 6.5% to 7% etc even look like for the 95% of people?

You understand that 4% growth era can be lot better than a 8% growth era...depending on where the actual growth is happening (say hard capex fuelled rather than equity inflation fuelled).

This is why its good to look at the lowest broad base input that cannot be lied about (like energy consumption, exports, investment, physical output parameters).

When you do that....... BD is not growing (when you correlate with other countries that went thru same stage) anywhere close to what it claims. What the actual real growth is....just depends on what clarity and scope of standards BD chooses to use to measure and implement w.r.t GDP.

They very key thing people should understand is that GDP is an ESTIMATE. It has intrinsic confidence and credibility intervals (like any estimate)....but those are not overtly calculated....but they can be roughly gauged.

In BD case its very wide and skewed towards a lower amount given its PPP ratio, use of only one industry (reliant 0 tariff access in its major markets) to gauge its exchange rate....and the faultiness of applying that exchange rate to Taka economy with same credibility implication as every other developing peer.
If the growth rate was significantly below the states growth rate the disparity would be noticeable by everyone.

I do think that the GDP growth is not benefitting the majority though. Those who are very poor is earning more money with increase wage in garments and similar jobs. And those who are super rich or have govt job is earning much more too. But same cannot be said about middle class people.

New food chains/restaurants, hotels, buildings are popping up everywhere. And they are making money too. Real estate price has increased and I don't think sales have dropped either.
Not really. Nowhere near enough (given low base still) to correlate to the GDP growth. And BD could muster from its earnings in the last decade "boom" or so about 2 dollars per person in reverse FDI (very key in growing more industry from foreign know-how and expertise)....when it should really be more like 5 times that level at least.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Bangladesh#Gross_export_and_import

Export grew from 14 billion in 2007 to 34 billion in 2017. 250% growth in a decade. Likely that it will surpass 40 billion in 2019.

FDI inflows haven't been satisfactory. But last year showed decent growth. Need to give couple more years to see where it goes.
Then you refer to others as misers.
I see it got you triggered.
Nowhere near suggesting the growth rate of GDP nominal claimed.
Increased from 4561$ to 4998$ according to IMF in a year. Not bad I'd say.
 
You mean BBS have only started to fudge data now? BD have shown high growth rate 6% for decades.
There is a limit on how much data can be fudged without getting caught. Even 1% GDP growth fudging over 20 years will create a big anomaly. With statistical maneuvering you can present 100 dollar worth goods as 110 or 120 dollar worth, but not 200 or 300. If such a large discrepancy existed in our GDP data then global lending giants like IMF and World Bank would have raised serious doubt long ago. But they did not. I remember, IMF and World Bank, for a long time did not accept Myanmar junta govt. provided data. As junta were always showing Myanmar economy was growing at double digit, and their currency was fixated against dollar at extremely high conversion rate but actual market exchange rate was much much lower. So they came up with their own estimate about the size of Myanmar economy and GDP growth.

If similar things happened with Bangladesh, their(IMF, World Bank) data would have shown vastly different than govt. provided data. If there was such a vast gap between Govt. provided data and the realities, our 'Doubting Thomas' in Bangladesh who are writing in newspapers or organizing seminars could have quantified the discrepancy rather than just raising doubt. So, if there is data fudging really present, is a small part of the overall picture and is not something which can show day as a night or night as a day.
 
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Guys,

Why you bothering with the Tamil low-life?

Just let him rant as much as he likes as it will not change anything for BD economy.

Guy is seriously unwell and needs to be kept in a secure institution for his own well being.
 
BD effective inflation applies to everything Taka wise....the Taka is the currency the BD govt prints and actions levers on internally.
I do not know about the situation in India but people do not accept even small 50 paisa coins in BD. So, 1 Taka has become effectively the minimum unit. Taka value is so low that the beggars will use rough words and throw back the money if it is two Taka. They do not like to accept less than a 5 Taka note. But, are all these because of inflation that is not counted properly?

Only @Homo Sapiens can say when there are no uses of small 1 or two paisa coins, why not the govt introduce 1 Taka, 2 Taka or 5 Taka coins, instead. The purchasing power of this 1 Taka has become almost the same as the value of 1 Paisa was before.
 
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