Bangladesh Budget for fiscal 2011-2012, GDP and Defence spendiing

[fallstuff]

I think already our GDP is under estimated because a large part of the service sector is left out. I read that in the Financial Express recently. Think about it a plot in Motijheel is worth the same as a plot of land in downtown Tokyo right now. Apartments are selling at 2000Sq ft for around 3-4 crore. Even 5 years ago that would have been crazy. Similarly the GDP only calculates the white economy. With the black economy included the figure actually doubles.

Munshi this is where I agree with you. Our economy needs re-basing, we are behind by 15 years !!!!

 

[bandit]

It would require 8% growth per year. More realistic if we use the present 6% growth as a basis then more likely 15 years. But I don't see why the the BD economy should not take off.

Once again not to burst your bubble but a quick excelling shows that it would take a sustained average growth rate of 24.7% for ten years to reach a trillion in 10 years....or some 23.6 years at 10% per year from current 110 billion.

However 8% is pretty impressive too and would help increase the per capita handsomely...nice going BD.

 

[great]

A typical Indian response. Look at your own grinding poverty and then throw stones.

An Indian response No, rather an economist response. High inflation leads to increase in poverty. Hope you know that. Also for Bangladesh to reach a trillion dollars in 10 years it has to grow by over 20% every year. That is sure as hell not happening.

 

[eastwatch]

I think. GNI presents an accurate figure instead of GDP. Gross National Income = GDP+/- Foreign Remittance. Bangladesh received about $10 billion this FY'. So, its GNI is $120 billion, and its per capita GNI is $818, while per capita GDP is $757. Both the figures are remakable.

At 7% continuous growth for the next 10 years, the GDP will double to $220 billion or more in FY'2020-21. We should not expect a sudden $1 trillion GDP in the next 10 years. It is not realistic. During the next 10 years if BD can learn how to manufacture products like machines, engines, motors etc. it will certainly boost the economy and it may grow at 8% or 9% rate per year.

 

[Dhruv V Singh]

Bangladesh will be a 1 trillion economy by 2050 earliest. Overpopulated with zero resources.

 

[Galaxy]

With 6% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 40 Years. i.e. 2051 (Already Going on)

With 8% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 31 Years i.e. 2042 (Possible with serious efforts)

With 10% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 24 years. i.e. 2035 (Difficult but Possible)

With 12% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 20 Years i.e. 2031 (Very Difficult)

 

[InFn-0]

Wait till our rebasing is done, as our base year for calculation is still 1995-96, calculations will be different then.

 

[InFn-0]

I dont understand why we are equating real gdp growth with nominal gdp as nominal gdp comes with inflation. The article says nominal gdp rose by 13.42% while our real gdp growth was 6.60%. If you consider the base year issue then imo achieving $1 trillion nominal GDP is possible within 2025.

 

[BanglaBhoot]

I dont understand why we are equating real gdp growth with nominal gdp as nominal gdp comes with inflation. The article says nominal gdp rose by 13.42% while our real gdp growth was 6.60%. If you consider the base year issue then imo achieving $1 trillion nominal GDP is possible within 2025.

Now this is the kind of attitude a Bangladeshi should have. If we take into account this issue of the base year which is stuck in 1995-1996 and that a large chunk of the economy is still unaccounted for we should be more than optimistic. I would think that the present figure for GDP of $110 billion is actually very conservative. The real figure should be much higher. Even double. The only problem is inflation but every cloud has a silver lining. The higher inflation goes the more the people will hate the AL.

 

[InFn-0]

Infact by some estimates the unaccounted part of the economy can be as big as 48%-82% of the economy. Unaccounted part means mostly informal sector (tea stalls, rickshaw pullers, and other self employed people) and the black money. The informal part of the economy is HUGE and so is black money(undeclared money). Now when we calculate the GDP, we dont consider the income of the informal sector, so their income turns 0.

Now the thing is regardless of what base year we use or whether the unaccounted gets in the GDP calculation or not, it does nt really matter because the living standard of the people remains the same. If someone really wants to compare the living standards of Bangladesh with other neighbouring countries the best way to do this would be to visit the countries and see for yourself.

 

[eastwatch]

With 6% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 40 Years. i.e. 2051 (Already Going on)

With 8% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 31 Years i.e. 2042 (Possible with serious efforts)

With 10% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 24 years. i.e. 2035 (Difficult but Possible)

With 12% CAGR Growth - 1 Trillion Economy possible in 20 Years i.e. 2031 (Very Difficult)

If the average growth can be retained somewhere between 6% and 7%, BD may achieve a $1 trillion GDP by, say, 2045. Another 35 years at the earliest. But, there is no way to know the future. While we expect a 7% or 8% growth, the gowth may go down again to 3% or 4%. If a man checks the GDP growth history of a little unsuccessful country, such as Brazil or Russia, he will find that it did not grow steadily.

However, my personal hope is, if power sector can produce more and more electricity, it is possible that within the next 2 or 3 years our rate of growth will exceed 8%. Our business community is very active. There is no laziness in them. They have single minded determination to keep on enlarging their businesses.

 

[Galaxy]

If the average growth can be retained somewhere between 6% and 7%, BD may achieve a $1 trillion GDP by, say, 2045. Another 35 years at the earliest. But, there is no way to know the future. While we expect a 7% or 8% growth, the gowth may go down again to 3% or 4%. If a man checks the GDP growth history of a little unsuccessful country, such as Brazil or Russia, he will find that it did not grow steadily.

However, my personal hope is, if power sector can produce more and more electricity, it is possible that within the next 2 or 3 years our rate of growth will exceed 8%. Our business community is very active. There is no laziness in them. They have single minded determination to keep on enlarging their businesses.

Yes, I Agree. somewhat. $1 Trillion is Huge. Today, Only 15 Countries in whole world are 1 $ Trillion economy. By 2050, Bangladesh could become 1$ trillion economy easily provided that inflation remains in around 5%-9% for most of the good time with average growth of 6%-8%. Investment and Infrastructure are also important. But in 2050, 1$ trillion will not look large due to compound Inflation and much bigger Population. Initial phase is always very difficult. After Reaching 1$ Trillion Economy, It become easy to maintain growth. Brazil is commodity depended Nation. Hence, it will be always volatile. 4% or 10%. Scope also limited. Russia didn't performed well. Even Russia will always Struggle to be in Top 10 even after a decade. Due to nature of it's Economy.

 

[InFn-0]

You people are not considering the fact that total gdp of the country is directly related to the population. With the population we have (160m +) all we gotta do is take our per capita nominal gdp to $6000. I dont think we'll need to wait till 2050 for that.

 

[chengdusudise]

so, BD's GDP almose equal to pakistan?,but your military force seems not on par with pakistan,why?

 

[ares]

With the right economic policies Bangladesh GDP can be brought to $1 trillion in 10 years time.

For doubling the GDP, an economy should grow by 12% for 5yrs.
and you are dreaming of 10 times the GDP in next 10yrs..with your 6% growth rate!!??