Who taught the so-called Mujahideen to fight a war with conventional forces? United States (US) and Pakistan in the 1980s to counter Soviet Union in Afghanistan. It was assumed that Soviet Union desired access to Indian Ocean but
this theory is disputed. Soviet economic situation was not good in the 1980s and Soviet Union could NOT afford to fight a war all the way to Arabian Sea.
Declassified records tell a different story: Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to topple Amin regime because it managed to topple Soviet friendly Taraki regime and was looking forward to develop bilateral relations with US.
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One might argue that regime change experiment was as a costly mistake in view of its unexpected cascading effects (Critical View) but NATO military performance in Iraq has been brilliant and it has achieved its political aim of reshaping political landscape of Iraq (Objective View): Saddam regime was dismantled and Iraqi political landscape is restructured as a Federal Parliamentary Republic.
The 2003 Blitzkrieg to occupy Iraq and topple Saddam regime in world record time (Operation Iraqi Freedom)
The 2004 Battle of Fallujah to recover it from Iraqi insurgency - brilliantly executed
De-Baathification of Iraq -
similar to De-Nazification of Germany
Leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) killed in 2006.
The 2008 Battle of Sadr City to recover it from Iraqi insurgency - brilliantly executed (Iraqi insurgency is defeated)
Iraq was stabilized and NATO occupation was called off by Obama administration in 2011.
But
poor security situation in Syria and political blunders of Maliki administration in Iraq allowed survivors of Saddam regime and Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) to regroup and establish the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) in 2013 and its call for jihad
appealed to thousands from all over the world, and ISIL managed to spread across Syria and Iraq consequently.
NATO returned to Iraq and launched
Operation Inherent Resolve to defeat ISIL during the (2014 - 2021) period -
brilliantly executed. This success is in part owed to
local actors in Iraq and Syria who chose to oppose ISIL with American support and stood firm in this cause.
So:
Saddam regime is victorious?
Iraqi insurgency is victorious?
ISIL is victorious?
Come on, bro. NATO has defeated these forces and achieved its political aim of reshaping the political landscape of Iraq.
Iraq is ruined of-course.
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NATO could NOT reshape political landscape of Afghanistan because
the Establishment was fine with nabbing Al-Qaeda fighters but wanted to preserve TTA. The Establishment assumed that TTA will serve its interests and provide strategic depth to Pakistan as in the 1990s.
US objected to the Establishment's support to TTA and efforts to negotiate with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in times of Bush administration and Obama administration.
The Establishment refused to abandon TTA but launched Operation Zarb-e-Azm to defeat TTP in North Waziristan in 2014.
The narrative of Good Taliban and Bad Taliban was adopted to distinguish between TTA and TTP as well.
But TTP found refuge in Afghanistan and US-backed Afghan setup was accused of supporting TTP. In reality, US-backed Afghan setup was fighting a war with the inter-Taliban nexus of TTA and TTP,
and ISIS-K*, and had killed
as well as imprisoned thousands of TTA, TTP,
and ISIS-K fighters but it was not in control of the entire country and could not stop TTP from finding refuge in Afghanistan. Contrary to the perception of Good Taliban and Bad Taliban that was sold to Pakistani awaam,
TTP managed to regroup under leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud with support of Al-Qaeda Network and TTA,
and these groups have worked together to counter US-backed Afghan setup; this relationship is also noted in
here and
here. India had access to Afghanistan through Iran, and it was EASY for India to appeal to US-backed Afghan setup through investment in Afghanistan infrastructure and siding with its position on the issue of the Establishment's support to TTA. India could also provide arms to any
TAKERS in the region.
*
ISIS-K cadre is composed of former members of TTA, TTP, and Al-Qaeda Network in AfPak who pledged allegiance to Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2014.
ISIS-K had its own agenda and opposed the inter-Taliban nexus of TTA and TTP as well as US-backed Afghan setup.
Trump administration
cancelled American military aid to Pakistan but
made a deal with TTA to recall troops from Afghanistan in exhange for TTA not allowing Al-Qaeda Network to plot attacks on US and its assets around the world and pitched
Intra-Afghan Dialogue as the way forward for Afghanistan. Biden administration scrapped the Intra-Afghan Dialogue and pulled the plug on the American effort to rebuild Afghanistan which led to collapse of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and TTA took control of the country. Many in Pakistan
celebrated this development, and Imran Khan boasted that the Afghans had
broken the shackles of slavery.
TTA is close to TTP and calls for negotiations between Pakistan and TTP to find a way forward for both. TTP calls for withdrawal of Pakistani troops from tribal areas on the other hand. This is why Pakistan continues to experience conflict situation across Durand Line in the present.
TTA also had talks with India, and India can attempt to increase its appeal to TTA through offers such as
financial support and investment in Afghanistan infrastructure. To be fair, Afghanistan is a sovereign country and it can establish bilateral relationship with India.
Al-Qaeda Network and ISIS-K continue to exist in some shape or form in Afghanistan.
US assassinated Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan in 2022.
TTA remains close to Al-Qaeda Network but
willing to counter ISIS-K.
CURRENT SITUATION
1. NATO eliminated perpetrators of 9/11 across AfPak and have a deal with TTA to recall troops from Afghanistan in exhange for TTA not allowing Al-Qaeda Network to plot attacks on US and its assets around the world.
2. The Establishment's TTA gambit
seems to have backfired:
- Resurgence of TTP and its attacks on Pakistan security forces.
- US - Pakistan bilateral relationship is at its lowest point with Joe Biden refusing to talk to any Pakistani leader.
3. The Establishment and PTI-led government were on the same page on the matter of supporting TTA and negotiating with TTP in 2021 but this relationship fell apart in 2022, and the Establishment's PDM gambit seems to have backfired as well with
Pakistan plunging into economic crisis.
4. US - India bilateral relationship continues to blossom.
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War On Terror provided an opportunity to Pakistan to get rid of the so-called Mujahideen for supporting Al-Qaeda Network and reshape political landscape of Afghanistan with support of NATO, and establish meaningful bilateral relationships with members of the
OECD bloc. This opportunity is missed and now the world has to deal with an Afghanistan that is lost to militants.
Now that TTA Is in charge of Afghanistan, it should focus on developing the country. Afghan culture can be preserved while allowing women to get education and work to support their families. TTA can decide what is taught in educational institutes of Afghanistan. These pursuits would make it easier for TTA to convince some countries to provide assistance and help rebuild Afghanistan.
Pakistan is in need of meaningful bilateral relationships with multiple countries around the world to rebuild its economy and meet its security needs. Take a look at the JF-17 Thunder program. Russian RD-93 is a low quality engine with significant serviceability requirements and a huge amount of sanctions imposed on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine is a problem in itself. China is yet to offer a high quality alternative to RD-93 engine for use in JF-17 variants even though China has figured out how to develop a jet engine with German support. Pakistan's global standing is such that it cannot get a high quality jet engine from any member of the OECD bloc for use in JF-17 variants. PAF has inducted J-10CE for a reason.
Scores of members on PDF think that everything is fine and dandy when it comes to Pakistan's security situation in the present. Bajwa's Freudian slip tells a different story.
As a citizen of Pakistan, I desire the very best for Pakistan's armed forces. But....
