Featured Azerbaijan Armenian War

[thetutle]

The remaining part don't even gave a population of 50k.
That self proclaimed republic don't exist anymore.

Ok, lets say it doesnt exist. But you have a land. about 3,000 sq km of it, it has a 5km wide corridor to armenia, protected by rusisan troops. Azeriri Army is 5 km away, they have no idea who gets in or out. and what gets in or out. Azeri army cant enter this land, nor can Azeriri police, nor can Azeri citizens.

Or if Azeri citizens come in, and lets say that citizen dies, with a bullet to his head, who can do anything? can Azeri police arrest the person that put that bullet in his head? can they find out who did it? lets say that armenia send a truck full of ice cream to khankendi, but instead of ice cream its s400. and it arrives in khankendi, and gets deployed, and Azrbaijan, says, hey you've got a new s400, and the "republic of artshak" (which supposedly does not exist) says, oh no, this is just ice cream shaped like a s400. what can happen? will AZE troops kill russians to enter and investigate? This is a problem that nobody is talking about.

 

[Ichigo]

the real challenge is can and how would Azerbaijani do this massive rehabilitation
if it can pull that off..then fate of this region will be sealed

this is a very useful interview just before the cease fire(couple of hours ago)

open google maps man..

there is highway from nachivan to turkey
second connection including gas pipelines is through Georgia which is a Azerbaijani ally

My friend Azerbaijan mainland was cutoff, now they are building a HW (planned) to join mainland with nachivan which will be under russian control. so still no direct connection with mainland as HW will passing through armenia, hence mainland is still not connected. unless armenia's land is taken which is not the case.

 

[Baybars Han]

Never ever trust Russia. My take is this - this is an overall conclusion of current and pre war. If we talk about pre war to now the biggest winner is Azerbaycan

1. The biggest winner is Russia from the agreement.

- increased sphere of influence and put direct boots on the ground which means they decide the future.
- said this is my backyard and I decide what happens. Made a statement saying USA and France wasn't involved in this negotiations, basically saying my words are the most important
- limited the future maneuvers of Azerbaycan

2. Second biggest winners are Turkey and Azerbaycan
- Azerbaycan gained territory they didn't have before the war, they nearly got all the territories back without having to carry on the war
- Azerbaycan gained a route or transport link from nahcivan to Azerbaycan though never trust Russia
- Turkey wasnt an actor before as it was all about the Minsk group but said I am in this game too and increased its influence and said I can change the tide of war

Biggest loser is Armenia compared to before the war, though they still didn't lose everything which they would have if war carried on.

Though problems are these
- Russia made a statement saying there will be no Turkish peacekeepers. Russia does not want more Turkish influence there by having Turkish soldiers
- having Russian troops means in the future Azerbaycan can not do much if there is an escalation.

I think Azerbaycan compromised too much on the table.

 

[thetutle]

Never ever trust Russia. My take is this - this is an overall conclusion of current and pre war. If we talk about pre war to now the biggest winner is Azerbaycan

1. The biggest winner is Russia from the agreement.

- increased sphere of influence and put direct boots on the ground which means they decide the future.
- said this is my backyard and I decide what happens. Made a statement saying USA and France wasn't involved in this negotiations, basically saying my words are the most important
- limited the future maneuvers of Azerbaycan

2. Second biggest winners are Turkey and Azerbaycan
- Azerbaycan gained territory they didn't have before the war, they nearly got all the territories back without having to carry on the war
- Azerbaycan gained a route or transport link from nahcivan to Azerbaycan though never trust Russia
- Turkey wasnt an actor before as it was all about the Minsk group but said I am in this game too and increased its influence and said I can change the tide of war

Biggest loser is Armenia compared to before the war, though they still didn't lose everything which they would have if war carried on.

Though problems are these
- Russia made a statement saying there will be no Turkish peacekeepers. Russia does not want more Turkish influence there by having Turkish soldiers
- having Russian troops means in the future Azerbaycan can not do much if there is an escalation.

I think Azerbaycan compromised too much on the table.

Thats right, I agree. totally.

AZE is the biggest winner, but too much compromise and now its totally cornered by russia. Armenians should not even be looked at as enemies. they are just an nuisance. totally helpless without russia. would not even exist or have a country without russia. Without russia they would be as powerful as Lichtenstein but with less money.

But in 10 or 20 years the world will be very different. Turkey will have nukes probably, and 100 or 120 million people. a real power. AZE will have maybe 12 million. Armenia will have 2 million and occupied NK maybe 30,000 people. So things will look very different.

There will be other opportunities. To me this agreement is terrible and I don't see why they are all celebrating, but I trust Erdogan with my life basically and if he thinks its acceptable, then ok. (mind you, i consider Erdogan as the light and shining path. a defender of democracy and human rights).

I dont trust Aliyev, and I dont know anything about him (except he's a son of KGB official), was he even democratically elected. But he is very well spoken and very intelligent. my favourite quote of his is "we wont kill civilians, we are not Armenians". lol I mean he sounds like Borat and its something Borat would say. just hilarious.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

a real power. AZE will have maybe 12 million

Azerbaijani population has been decreasing since 2000s due to women getting careers and not starting families. It was 8.9 million in the most recent census in 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if it's down to 8.5 million by now.
Here's hoping Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other but I guess this is asking for too much.

 

[thetutle]

Azerbaijani population has been decreasing since 2000s due to women getting careers and not starting families. It was 8.9 million in the most recent census in 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if it's down to 8.5 million by now.
Here's hoping Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other but I guess this is asking for too much.

keep dreaming, its over 10 million.

 

[thetutle]

8.5 million.

5 years from now Armenia armed with Chinese made Wing Loong 10 drones will invade Karabakh again. This is a pause. The war lasts centuries like Hundred Years War. Armenia and Azerbaijan do not recognize each other.

sure, Please explain to me, why are Armenians angry at this peace deal? Do you think this is a good deal for Armenia?

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Russians used peacekeepers to go to war with Georgia and Georgia lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If I were an Azerbaijani I'd be careful about Russian peacekeepers.

Dude, what happened to those Aerminian SU30s you were raving about earlier?

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Dude, what happened to those Aerminian SU30s you were raving about earlier?

They acted as mini AWACs to locate enemy aircraft. TB2 is man sized do not show on radars so Armenians bought Orlan for recon.

Orlan footage

Su-30 air superiority jets

In total Azerbaijan lost 1400 men in Karabakh

https://m.facebook.com/herbimedia/

sure, Please explain to me, why are Armenians angry at this peace deal? Do you think this is a good deal for Armenia?

It is a pause in the war. Both sides are preparing for very big battle in Karabakh in 5 years when peacekeepers leave.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Better live broadcast from yerevan parliment.

People are furious.

Kim Karsashian should be flown in the town center and do her Mujra, that will calm these angry and defeated Armenian men down.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

100,000 refugees entered Armenia from Karabakh. These people are pissed. There will surely be war in 5 years when peacekeepers leave.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

They acted as mini AWACs to locate enemy aircraft. TB2 is man sized do not show on radars so Armenians bought Orlan for recon.

Orlan footage

Su-30 air superiority jets

In total Azerbaijan lost 1400 men in Karabakh

https://m.facebook.com/herbimedia/

It is a pause in the war. Both sides are preparing for very big battle in Karabakh in 5 years when peacekeepers leave.

Where were they when old vintage Su-24s of Azarbijan Airforce were droping their bombs over Armenian army? No interception of enemy aircrafts?

It seems their effect has been next to Zero since Armenia accepted the defeat.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Where were they when old vintage Su-24s of Azarbijan Airforce were droping their bombs over Armenian army? No interception of enemy aircrafts?

It seems their effect has been next to Zero since Armenia accepted the defeat.

Su-30 use a lot of oil. They are not in the sky 24 7. Azerbaijanis used Su-25 only once for like a few minutes the entire war.
Armenia and Azerbaijan do not recognize each other. This means battle will start again.

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

This is a ceasefire. this status quo is absolutely untenable for both sides.

Azerbaijan claims the entire territory as its. so its going to forgive the rest of the territories in armenian hands?

the all important capital stepenakert will remain in armenian hands. While sushi will be a stones throw away. Neither side can have people living there in such circumstances. either armenia has to retake sushi, or azerbaijan has to take stepanekrt.

this battle though has been won by the Azeri's without question. The armenians were caught were their pants down. completely unprepred for precision drones, and underestimating their enemy.

If the war continued it would have probably resulted in more azeri gains, and a desperate armenia heavily escalating with missile attacks, and or all out attack azerbaijan from armenia proper.

This is a humiliation for Armenia. Though they get to survive to fight another day.

my guess is Armenia will get rid of pashinyan, a pro-moscow puppet will get on his knees in moscow, and declare unconditional open a**. try to re-arm, get precision drones of their own, and go for a counter attack at some point. perhaps with a scheme to somehow draw Russia in .

With Russians and turks observation posts, that will be impossible.
The side breaking the agreement will lose support in the next conflict.
What if Armenia lose the corridor in such case?
But I do think that public pressure will force them to fight again.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

It's sort of like Idlib. Assad took the second biggest city Maarut al Numan while Erdogan keeps the capital Idlib city. In this case Armenians keep the capital Stepanakert which has about half of the entire population of Karabakh which is guarded by Russia and even though Azerbaijan dares to fight Armenia for Stepanakert Azerbaijan don't dare fight Russia for Stepanakert. You don't mess with the world's biggest country. Like. Ever. Capish?
Azerbaijan shot Mi-24 by mistake. Or else Azerbaijan would have continued to fight for Stepanakert. But now with Russia involved Azerbaijan will never get Stepanakert back.