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Here are some threats from ARM diaspora. and his view on why Lachin is not going to fall. The existence of NK is a red line that would cause Armenia to destroy AZE vital infrastructure. what a curious way to think.

So he basically thinks the existence of NK is currently not under threat.


In essence, he was calling outside powers, especially, EU to intervene. He was also less optimistic about the rest of the world, and you can see his references to the 1915 incidents.

He was also repeating Azerbaijan's oil infrastructure and how they (Armenians) can damage it; however, he didn't share what precautionary measures that Azerbaijan took to protect them.

My summary of this interview is they're in a dire situation and are deliberating on what they could do to reverse the situation. The Lacin corridor is already contested, so if the kind of bombing that the Azerbaijani military has been carrying out continues, it is going to fall in a few weeks or less - of course notwithstanding the involvement of foreign powers to the side of Armenia.


Turkey and Isreal are the main reason why Azerbaijan is winning a bunch of Pakistani Pan-Islamist cheerleaders would sink Azeebaijan chances but main reason why is Russia is sick of tired of the Armenians double faced attitudes to a peace settlement The Armenians are isolated for now but If Biden is elected President we might see Armenian diaspora take advantage on the end I see a stalemate Azeebaijan gets leverage on the negotiations and newly acquired territories Aliyev smart this way guess his father a former KGB general and Former General Secretary of Azerbaijan SSR and Politburo member taught his son the right ropes

Azerbaijan is winning because of the meticulous approach and war strategy that the Azerbaijan military is pursuing and the political skill of its leaders and allies. One can have the best equipment in the world, but if the strategy is bad and the army is incompetent, the technology becomes useless. The Azerbaijani military and whomever is advising them has really shown here a superb professionalism and outstanding war strategy.
 
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It seems the lachin's area are massed with all the manpower and equipment armenia could spare . They fully understood what's the consequences will be should be if lachin is falling . It's all or nothing for the Armenian in this clash ...
We won't be expected to see some concrete result in these coing days . But , when it fall and it's not a would or wouldn't be question anymore . The armenians are battered for good in decades to come . Be it material or manpower it is the onset of Armenian's decline for sure . Wether it was the population , politics , economically or militarily they would still exist in the spiritual sense as a nation should were in the question then ..
 
Azerbaijani Army hits Armenian forces on the axis of Lachin, Shusha and Khankenti


This would be the time the Azeris use their Air Force to provide cover to advancing ground forces, can’t afford any mistakes drone for ground cover and fighters for air to air.

Goal should be to pound the Armenians with artillery and drone strikes — kill as many infantry as possible.

I have not seen anything stating reserves were called into active duty or not, but this is the time the Azeri should call’em and have them hold positions and resupply behind the lines while the vanguard pushes through Lachin Corridor.
 
Last time azerbaijani soldiers leaked a video inside qubadli city which then forced Aliyev to make an official announcement with a hastily nightime flag raising video. It is said that Aliyev was very angry due to the leak. Which then tells us that Azerbaijan doesn't want to announce further gains not to draw international pressure. I do not expect major announcements from now on until very major events.

You can guesstimate how far Azerbaijan advanced from armenian sources. And those sources point out Azerbaijan is getting very close to Susha and lachin. Since tv ads named "return to susha" aired in Azerbaijan tv channels today I believe they are very close capturing it. It may be matter of days.
 
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Whether its barren and opened or in trees, the troops cannot stay still forever and will be detected, can't even hide in large groups. And when was this Kargil conflict? Was drones used? Did India have accurate smart bombs?

Drones aren't as powerful as fighter-bombers, nor are smart bombs necessarily better than ballistic missiles, so your comparison is flawed. From what I recall, India used bunker busters, which failed to do damage, and bunker busters are far more powerful than the typical tiny missiles that are packed on drones.
 
When I was looking at the geolocation tweets I noticed something. See not every mountain is green everywhere. It depends on the dominant wind direction. Windward side of the mountains get more rainfall than the leeward side. Most of the mountains therefore green on one slope barren on the opposite. Azerbaijani forces approach the mountains from the leeward side. Where the whole slope is visible from the neighboring mountain. When they climb and capture the heights the other slope being full of trees does not give any advantage to armenians other than to retreat more safely. This also helps azerbaijan side to descend from the mountain safely to attack the other one. If you look at the conflict zone you will see this trend. Direction of captured areas follow this pattern. Of course not all the time.

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With this in mind the direction of the operation makes sense. Going west to zengilan and attack the heartland from southwest to northeast direction is better. That's why we dont see a major offensive from north down south. And I expect not to see it near the end of the war.

Notice in the picture below why they passed spitakhasen and left it uncaptured ? Because they want to approach it from Basarat direction. With the green and yellow lines I marked the vegetation pattern. I read some tweets that basarat is already captured backs up my theory.

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