First, a number of points.
1, all the analysis is based on the existing Pakistan news.
2, all of our analysis is subjective, everyone has their own methods, my method is exclusion
3, to determine suspicious targets, the United States, India, Israel, terrorists. I did not put China on the table, because the Indians always imagined too much, not worth to a serious.
4, if it is joint action, it is pointless to discuss, we assume that he is not a joint action, we are talking about a single action, at least, only one party dominates.
Then implemented to the exclusion for those who suspect object.
First, forget Israel, they already have enough trouble, do not give yourself an additional big trouble.
Second, the terrorists do not have this ability, I have already explained, from a military accomplishment, intelligence, and equipment, have not had this ability. Even there is a careful plan. Dive base, designated attack target P3C, destroying targets, trying to kidnap Chinese people as hostages, in order to spread the attention of security guards to create opportunities for escape, and finally succeeded in escaping. This line is so clear, religious fanaticism of the terrorists do not have this ability, and even I think they do not have the will. If there is no less of Israel possible objects, my first rule out the terrorists.
Then, the suspect in India and the United States. We first have a look to India.
Intelligence capabilities
Like I said, do not underestimate the intelligence capabilities needed, in theory, only three countries to meet this capacity, Pakistan, the United States, China, the only three countries have the opportunity to get all the information. India is not in the list.
United States and China have long cooperation with Pakistan.
United States has a large intelligence network coverage Pakistan , and even legitimate intelligence activities.
Although China also has the ability, in theory, because we have long time cooperation and Pakistan, especially military cooperation, including within the naval base. But I know that the Chinese activities are limited because the security in Pakistan, all activities are protected by Pakistan military, not free. Therefore, China's intelligence capabilities are very limited in their own persons, so that there is a doubt over whether China has enough intelligence capabilities. But if only the internal base of Karachi, China should have the ability.
As stated above, Pakistan own has the ability, the United States have sufficient capacity, China has a doubt whether there is enough information. But India do not have the intelligence capability.
Insiders
However, if coupled with internal staff? It complicated, although not zero possible, but I think that is the smallest possible insider selling that information to India. Pakistan's military may have sympathy for the terrorists, Pakistan's military have pro-American personnel , but who heard of pro-India? just for the money? This is not a drama, the risk is too high compared income.
If the Pakistani army collusion with terrorists, insiders, it is possible, because of religious reasons, religious faith, without considering the consequences, even if there is risk.
The United States? Possible, if the promise of money and protection, you know the position of Pakistan is soft to the U.S for some reason, even if they are found, if the United States to intense pressure to Pakistan, then what happens? May not have any penalty or only a small penalty, and then You can enjoy the money to leave Pakistan. It is very possible , in psychological motivation, the risk does not look so great, this may be a temptation even for the rebellion.
However, selling to India, there is no religious reason, just because of money, then the punishment is death by treason, this is not drama, I do not think there is enough to attract those people who have a decent life .
Motivation
Although we all know that India has a motive, or even look directly and strongly, but in fact, it is not enough to direct and strong.
Before the event, India has a loud declaration of Pakistan as a surprise, therefore, it is a strong motivation? Not, if the Indian government really has the secret operation, first, that there will be no loud declarations, Second, the India object should be some terrorists gathering place or training camps, military bases, it is not India's target range.
Attacks on military bases, or India would like to start a war? I think it is impossible,
First, there is a sound reason why the Indian media to advocate in a surprise attack on Pakistan as attack against Osama bin Laden, this is a test for all aspects. Need to see reaction especially China and then decide whether to act. His actions do not come so fast, just a few days (three days?).
Second, India should have been the Chinese response. Attack in Pakistan is equivalent to attack China, the expressed to the United States? United States has no desire and ability to start a war, psychological warfare and the game is now the choice. If war is a choices to United States, Hillary would not be so rushed to Pakistan. Therefore, China's statement is not directed against the United States, but against India. This statement is so strong and serious. I personally think that India should have abandoned the action, at least still considering . And, if it is attacked India, Pakistan and China knows it, Pakistan has worried the United States, but certainly will respond to Indian attacks. It is certain, Pakistan is soft on the United States, but do not really soft on India. Indeed, since China has already declared security commitments to Pakistan, if this is the India action, China will not do nothing. the fact is that both China and Pakistan know that this action is irrelevant and India. Therefore, both countries without any reaction to India. even without any sound, because India is strong enough? No, just because China and Pakistan know the truth.
Even, as the time too coincidental, the target is too coincidental (for anti-submarine capabilities), all it seems, India is the sinner, but because of too much coincidence, and I personally think this is one stone two birds, first of all to blame India, or at least divert attention For the real prisoners. Second, because the weakening of Pakistan's defense capability at sea, which forms a good practice for India, which is a temptation to India, though, some people think this is a India based on the prisoners, but I personally think that this means Some people encourage India to take a hit on Pakistan. just my personal point of view. I also hope that India will not do anything silly to go into some games.
So, I ruled out of India as a possibility, of course, need to focus on more news. However, at least now from publicly available information to see, India will be excluded, then only one goal, the United States, anyone that surprised?