Let me put it in terminology we can both agree upon.
Final 'purchase' happens after- Awareness, Interest, Considertaion, Desire & Action
A and I happens through mass media. All the high decibel campaign and PR work of BJP atomatically leads to A & I.
Why exclude Congress with 'Nahi rukegi dilli' by Shiela, 'Bharat Nirman' in Chhatisgarh, MP and Rajasthan.
C- for BJP and Congress is automatic in delhi- in mot cases people will consider Congress or BJP being the two biggest rivals with history of ruling. In addition to that AAP enterted consideration because of the extensive protests they led on Lokpal.
Yes they did, which makes them a tough competitor for both Congress and BJP. Rite?
So 'Modi wave' is ultimately an exceptional factor that delivers Desire and Action beyond 'consideration' level. In Delhi, close to 30 seats, people who reached 'consideration' for the three top players- desire and action actually went to AAP. So where is the modi effect? The rest of the t constituency, there was clear anti-incumbency and anti congress sentiment. Arguably that itself was enough to get he BJP the 30 they got- with or without modi. So where is the wave? BJP didn't need him to get those, they'd have come to BJP anyway.
You very simply talked bout all the factors and ignored Modi effect. Lemme illustrate the fact that even tough AAP was a good option as an alternative for both BJP and Congress, then why only congress suffered? Only anti incumbancy factor wont be enough to explain things. BJP was never powerful in Delhi recently and if AAP was to impress voters to this extent, it shud have been a complete victor defeating both Cong and BJP. Also when AAP went on sweeping the delhi seats, it not only ate up the Cong voter's lead but also BJP's. In other words BJP won 30 seats and in those seats there were voters who went to AAP too. Hence, BJP won even against the force of 2 strong parties. So, you see these 30 seats are not obvious and natural coz even after having AAP, BJP improved its tally as compared to last election. Now to prove that AAP ate more BJP votes than Congress as compared to 2008, see at 3.28 min.
Said that, Delhi public has this attitude of never taking BJP seriously in Delhi due to not so good leadership comparatively. You can confirm this with Delhittes. Still if BJP wins it has to be the Modi factor and definitely not Harshwardhan factor.
The analogy you gave also illustrates this. If AAP doesn't stand for elections, arguably BJP will get those votes -that's your point right? Means in the absence of the top choice, they go for second choice, ie Modi has not made BJP the top choice at all. And then there is a question- if AAP don't stand for elections, what's the chance of congress not getting those shares? The CHOSE AAP. Didn't say who is their second choice.
Well, as you said i repeated it in above section too. I repeat, BJP is never the natural chice for Delhi people. Thats been the trend for some good years. Congress lost not because it was obvious. They lost coz AAP was an equal alternative for Congress. Trust me, if AAP wasnt there, Delhi people wud have voted Congress again against BJP (considering no Modi).
Means, Their option today is AAP(for anticorruption which is the biggest factor), Congress(For development and governance of Shiela), BJP(No good reason). But if BJP ends up the largest party in Delhi its only coz of Modi factor.
Can you give me a good reason on ground why a Delhi voter shud go for BJP if without Modi?
You think about it what's happened in chattisgarh, the brand remains no. but with lower markershare . That's why that 5 seat loss is important. And modi wave has not been able to stop that erosion. Looks like the organic erosion of the CM in his third term (which is also good for him)
By the way its only loss of 1 seat and if that really makes a difference, then i wont argue on that.
I only want to bring ur focus to exit polls pre and post modi rallys. This shud be obvious for any person to see if a transitional difference occur due to an event, it shud mean that the event has some weightage.
| Video | Narendra Modi's rallies have helped us in polls, says Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh | Assembly Elections 2013 Videos | - India Today
Bottomline is, In all the 4 states, BJP as per its credability cud have earned particular number of seats irrespective of winning or losing but with the NaMo wave push, BJP swept MP, Raj much more to the expectations of both BJP and Congress. Ever thought Why? Congress was winning Chhatisgarh but post Modi rally it became 50-50 and today BJP ended in same seat count as that of 2008. Ever thought Why?
No one is saying Modi wave won the elections. Its just Modi wave confirmed the umpteen nails in coffin of Congress. Modi wave gave BJP the necessary push needed for becoming the largest party in their respective states.
Do watch this and comment.
