Syed Asif Bukhari
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I wouldn't write the aircraft carrier's obituary just yet. Yes, something that falls on you out of the sky at Mach 10 is pretty damn tough to dodge or shoot down. But targeting systems would be its vulnerability.
The DF-21D appears to be guided by over-the-horizon radars which bounce radar pulses off the ionosphere and back down to Earth to extend their range. Those radars would be vulnerable to electronic countermeasures, chaff, and to HARM missiles and other ordnance. The other major source of guidance would be Chinese spy satellites, but those can be shot down with RIM-161 missiles, and they can't see through cloud cover, allowing the carriers to dart into range under cloud cover to launch their strikes, then withdraw before the skies clear. Smoke screens could also be developed to hide the carriers from satellites. The signals to the DF-21D's maneuverable reentry vehicle could also be spoofed.
So far, it appears the DF-21D has only been tested against a carrier-flight-deck-sized target in the desert. It has not been tested against a ship at sea maneuvering at 30 knots doing this:
You need a pretty damn small CEP to hit a target that's doing that; it has yet to be proven that the DF-21D is up to the task in the face of full-blast ECM, chaff, and other deception measures.
The DF-21D is the greatest threat to U.S. carriers I've yet seen. We would be foolish to take it lightly. But we shouldn't assume it's unbeatable.
Written Nov 24 • View Upvotes
The DF-21D appears to be guided by over-the-horizon radars which bounce radar pulses off the ionosphere and back down to Earth to extend their range. Those radars would be vulnerable to electronic countermeasures, chaff, and to HARM missiles and other ordnance. The other major source of guidance would be Chinese spy satellites, but those can be shot down with RIM-161 missiles, and they can't see through cloud cover, allowing the carriers to dart into range under cloud cover to launch their strikes, then withdraw before the skies clear. Smoke screens could also be developed to hide the carriers from satellites. The signals to the DF-21D's maneuverable reentry vehicle could also be spoofed.
So far, it appears the DF-21D has only been tested against a carrier-flight-deck-sized target in the desert. It has not been tested against a ship at sea maneuvering at 30 knots doing this:
You need a pretty damn small CEP to hit a target that's doing that; it has yet to be proven that the DF-21D is up to the task in the face of full-blast ECM, chaff, and other deception measures.
The DF-21D is the greatest threat to U.S. carriers I've yet seen. We would be foolish to take it lightly. But we shouldn't assume it's unbeatable.
Written Nov 24 • View Upvotes