Apparently on PM’s debt relief plea: Pakistan’s dollar bonds plunge

[Clutch]

This is a good chance for patriotic overseas Pakistanis to support their country by purchasing the publicly traded government bonds from Pakistan

Never!!!! With this Corrupt Imported Government!

The government doesn't have as much power as people think. Pakistan's problems are deeper than just corruption. There are entire industries that don't exist. Gov't can encourage exports but they can't make them. This problem has more to do with society than any government. Nobody wants to admit it and that is one of the reasons why it is still an issue.

Chinese wrote a blank check for CPEC and there is essentially nothing to show for it. Other countries have done twice as much in half the time. For what China considers to be its most important global investment and what is arguably Pakistan's only lifeline, the resources we have devoted to CPEC or the complete lack thereof is a complete disgrace. The lack of progress on Gwadar is inexcusable, for a project of that magnitude with transformative implications, it should have had fast track priority at all stages of the federal level, instead it is being handled with the scope of a second rate white elephant which is exactly what it has become. This problem has existed during all recent governments and is a clear indictment of the fact that gross mismanagement is not partisan.

Nothing is possible in a corrupt banana Republic

 

[TheDarkKnight]

Ah, the myth of cheaper oil from Russia. Do you have any evidence to suggest that there was such a deal? Does Pakistan even have the oil tankers to ship 'em from Russia?

I'm not speculating about money printing. It is a natural turn for ALL governments that run with CAD. You have still not understood that BoP is a result of Imran driving IMF program in jeopardy. This is why I think there is a gap in your understanding about what BOP even means! BoP means that Pakistan will not be able to service a debt that if it was under IMF program would be deferred by other multilateral lenders. Without this key understanding about significance of IMF program, people in this forum wrongly assume that just a $1 billion given by IMF is the significance of the deal. Let me repeat -- the money from IMF is not the real value of IMF deal for countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. If you think about it, the money is hardly adequate to cover the billions in debt that the country faces. It is actually the credibility that comes with IMF program that matters! Even if you come back with a circular and repetitive argument for what I've written here, I'm sure that you have now been educated about why developing countries seek IMF. I hope to have appealed to your common sense and rationality in this matter.

I meant to say the CAD is due to the drop in exports, remittances etc. BOP is definitely ability to pay back loans etc, which requires IMF in Pakistan case and ability to take loans, but the point of contention has been about how PTI derailed and torpedoed the economy etc where as I have explained again and again that PTI had the plan to cover the subsidy and that subsidy itself wont cause the a BOP issue - and for the nth time they were kicked out before being able to deliver it or try to pass the next IMF review. I never said you dont need IMF, so you are wrongly attributing that opinion to me.

Why Pakistan cannot import or figure out logistics to get Russian oil? I am not in oil industry so cant say that is a deal breaker or not. The offer for Russian oil was there.

Lastly, OFCOURSE my recommendation for investment is based on an emotional appeal for Pakistanis. That is why I predicated my recommendation to 'patriotic' Pakistanis. Not just any overseas Pakistani who would value Imran about all else.

You havent added anything new here so dont know why you are beating a dead horse. I already acknowledged that your investment advice was purely sentimental and you in your right mind would never put even $100 worth of investment. Overseas Pakistanis already have received the ‘fruits’ of their investments. Lastly it’s idiotic to make investments based on emotions or patriotism, and hypocritical to not invest in something you yourself deem unworthy or unwilling to. Charity can be made on sentiments, NOT your investments!

I think this side topic of PTI sabotaging the economy in 2 months, and PPP/PMLN which have been in power one way or another for 50 years will save it has been discussed enough.

The topic is SS appeal for debt relief. Bonds rate will shoot up as that is a public admission of impending default from PM - causing an even bigger debt burden to finance the deficit. And if certain people are confident they should then invest in PKR and reap the benefits.

 

[Wood]

I meant to say the CAD is due to the drop in exports, remittances etc. BOP is definitely ability to pay back loans etc, which requires IMF in Pakistan case and ability to take loans, but the point of contention has been about how PTI derailed and torpedoed the economy etc where as I have explained again and again that PTI had the plan to cover the subsidy and that subsidy itself wont cause the a BOP issue - and for the nth time they were kicked out before being able to deliver it or try to pass the next IMF review. I never said you dont need IMF, so you are wrongly attributing that opinion to me.

Why Pakistan cannot import or figure out logistics to get Russian oil? I am not in oil industry so cant say that is a deal breaker or not. The offer for Russian oil was there.


You havent added anything new here so dont know why you are beating a dead horse. I already acknowledged that your investment advice was purely sentimental and you in your right mind would never put even $100 worth of investment. Overseas Pakistanis already have received the ‘fruits’ of their investments. Lastly it’s idiotic to make investments based on emotions or patriotism, and hypocritical to not invest in something you yourself deem unworthy or unwilling to. Charity can be made on sentiments, NOT your investments!

I think this side topic of PTI sabotaging the economy in 2 months, and PPP/PMLN which have been in power one way or another for 50 years will save it has been discussed enough.

The topic is SS appeal for debt relief. Bonds rate will shoot up as that is a public admission of impending default from PM - causing an even bigger debt burden to finance the deficit. And if certain people are confident they should then invest in PKR and reap the benefits.

The very first line in your argument has a flaw. As always, PTI supporters do not speak with facts. Please take a look at when Fitch predicted CAD to rise from 4% to 5%.

Fitch sees Pakistan’s current account deficit widening in fiscal 2022 on policy uncertainty

KARACHI: Fitch Ratings on Tuesday revised its projection for Pakistan’s current account deficit to 5.0 percent of the gross domestic product for the current 2022 fiscal year on near-term...

www.thenews.com.pk

The 4% prediction was at February and at April, it was raised to 5%. Imran Khan was still at office during the time of analysis. This CAD is NOT the reason for BoP crisis, but it goes to show how terrible PTI is at managing the economy. PTI supporters bragged day and night about exports during Imran's tenure, did they not? Then why the high CAD?! I'll tell you why -- Pakistan's productivity is not high enough to sustain a high growth rate. Pakistan's economy will over heat and collapse if it grows at 5% or more because the imports necessary for high growth is not efficiently utilized to render proportionally higher exports. Countries like India are able to balance this problem with FDI while Gulf monarchies can manage with natural resources. Pakistan has neither and hence the problem. Imran's brigade however seems to be oblivious to this basic realization.

I've not added anything new to the topic of investing in Pakistan's treasury bonds because there is nothing more from me to say on that. You are the one who haplessly regurgitates a moot point as if I'm forcing you to invest in it. My comment was not meant for PTI supporters because I do not see them value their country above Imran anyway. So give that a rest and focus on how you think PTI managed the economy better. Slowly but surely, I will convince you how terrible the state of Pakistan's economy was under PTI.

 

[ghazi52]

‏(واردات نمبر 1 )
‏مقامی مارکیٹ سے سرکاری خزانے سے ڈالرز خرید کر ڈالر مہنگا کیا گیا
‏تاکہ اسحاق ڈار کی واپسی پر وہی ڈالر دوبارہ مارکیٹ میں پھینک کر ڈالر سستا کیا جا سکے گا
‏اور دو دن پہلے یہی کیا گیا
‏(واردات نمبر 2 )
‏عالمی منڈی میں تیل کی قیمتیں کم ترین سطح پر ہونے کے باوجود تیل سستا نہیں کیا گیا
‏تاکہ اسحاق ڈار خود آ کر تیل سستا کرے اور عوام کو لگے کہ ریلیف ملا ہے
‏(واردات نمبر 3 )
‏مفتاح اسمعیل کو جان بوجھ کر ہاتھ سخت رکھنے کا حکم تھا تاکہ اسحاق ڈار کی واپسی کا جواز پیدا کیا جا سکے
‏(وارادت نمبر 4)
‏اسحاق ڈار شروع میں ریلیف دے گا
‏عوامی اعتماد بحال کرنے کی کوشش کرے گا
‏ہو سکتا ہے بجلی بھی کچھ سستی کی جائے، مہنگائی میں کچھ وقفہ آئے
‏مگر نومبر گزرتے ہی آپ مفتاح اسمعیل کو بھول جائیں گے
‏( واردات نمبر 5 )
‏غیر ملکی قرضوں کے علاؤہ مقامی بینکوں سے بے تحاشا قرض لیا جائے گا
‏لوٹ مار کے باقی ماندہ سب کیسز بھی اڑا دئیے جائیں گے
‏اور آپ یاد رکھیں !
‏اس بار یہ سب کچھ شریف یا زرداری خاندان نہیں کر رہا
‏یہ خاندان تو صرف استعمال ہو رہے ہیں
‏اور بدلے میں اپنے کیسز معاف کروا رہے ہیں
‏آپ کا مجرم کون ہے ؟
‏اب آپ اسے اچھی طرح پہچان چکے ہیں
‏لہذا وقتی ریلیف سے دھوکا مت کھائیے
‏میڈیا آپ کو سب اچھا دکھانے کی بھرپور کوشش کرے گا مگر یہ سب کچھ ویسا ہو گا کہ جیسے شیر کو شکار کرنے کیلئے بکری کو بطور چارہ استعمال کیا جاتا ہے
‏اس سب کے دوران عین ممکن ہے
‏کہ کوئی محافظ غیرت کھا جائے
‏اور ان کی سب پلان چوپٹ ہو جائیں
‏عوام کو مگر ہر صورت ہوشیار رہنا ہو گا
‏چور نے صرف طریقہ بدلا ہے
‏مقصد چوری کرنا ہی ہے !!​

 

[TheDarkKnight]

The very first line in your argument has a flaw. As always, PTI supporters do not speak with facts. Please take a look at when Fitch predicted CAD to rise from 4% to 5%.

Fitch sees Pakistan’s current account deficit widening in fiscal 2022 on policy uncertainty

KARACHI: Fitch Ratings on Tuesday revised its projection for Pakistan’s current account deficit to 5.0 percent of the gross domestic product for the current 2022 fiscal year on near-term...

www.thenews.com.pk

The 4% prediction was at February and at April, it was raised to 5%. Imran Khan was still at office during the time of analysis. This CAD is NOT the reason for BoP crisis, but it goes to show how terrible PTI is at managing the economy. PTI supporters bragged day and night about exports during Imran's tenure, did they not? Then why the high CAD?! I'll tell you why -- Pakistan's productivity is not high enough to sustain a high growth rate. Pakistan's economy will over heat and collapse if it grows at 5% or more because the imports necessary for high growth is not efficiently utilized to render proportionally higher exports. Countries like India are able to balance this problem with FDI while Gulf monarchies can manage with natural resources. Pakistan has neither and hence the problem. Imran's brigade however seems to be oblivious to this basic realization.

How terrible PTI was and how good PDM is will be judged in general elections. Since your whole point is how PTI is bad and PMLN is good, if you look at the BOP - who took the loans, signed IPP and CPEC projects at criminally expensive rates?
In the later part you have now shifted the argument in a different direction now, from IMF agreement to how Pakistan cant have a >5% growth rate. PTI had managed these growth rates while being in the IMF program. If you bothered reading your own article the main reasons for this deficit are not really due to Pakistans growth rate. The oil shock may have been mitigated if Pakistan took advantage of cheaper Russian oil (logistics not being an issue withstanding) just like India, Bangladesh and even Saudi Arabia.

I've not added anything new to the topic of investing in Pakistan's treasury bonds because there is nothing more from me to say on that. You are the one who haplessly regurgitates a moot point as if I'm forcing you to invest in it. My comment was not meant for PTI supporters because I do not see them value their country above Imran anyway. So give that a rest and focus on how you think PTI managed the economy better. Slowly but surely, I will convince you how terrible the state of Pakistan's economy was under PTI.

Please read my post again you are now completely off track here. Our families had made investments and properties while PMLN was in power. All I said was your investment advice is emotional/sentimental, and you have admitted it. And I consider it hypocritical to people preaching investment in X when they themselves wont invest in X. Thats it - move on now.

Now lets get back to the topic.

 

[Crimson Blue]

 

[Wood]

How terrible PTI was and how good PDM is will be judged in general elections. Since your whole point is how PTI is bad and PMLN is good, if you look at the BOP - who took the loans, signed IPP and CPEC projects at criminally expensive rates?
In the later part you have now shifted the argument in a different direction now, from IMF agreement to how Pakistan cant have a >5% growth rate. PTI had managed these growth rates while being in the IMF program. If you bothered reading your own article the main reasons for this deficit are not really due to Pakistans growth rate. The oil shock may have been mitigated if Pakistan took advantage of cheaper Russian oil (logistics not being an issue withstanding) just like India, Bangladesh and even Saudi Arabia.



Please read my post again you are now completely off track here. Our families had made investments and properties while PMLN was in power. All I said was your investment advice is emotional/sentimental, and you have admitted it. And I consider it hypocritical to people preaching investment in X when they themselves wont invest in X. Thats it - move on now.

Now lets get back to the topic.

1) I do not say that PLMN is good. I only mean to say that PTI is not good. Hope that this is simple for you to understand.
2) I've not shifted the argument at all. Perhaps you have not been able to understand my point. When I criticize PTI era's economic growth rate, it is to make a point that PTI leadership does not understand the inherent BoP crisis that it will create for Pakistan. The point once again is to critique PTI and not anything else. You should rationally accept that high growth rate will mean high import of essential commodities for growth in the Industrialized age. This means Pakistan had to import more oil at a time when oil prices were globally high. This will lead to a high CAD. Now you see how these points are connected. Often PTI supporters lack the depth in understanding to make sense of these obvious realties.
3) I'm not off track about investment in government bonds. I maintain what I said in my first post -- my intention is to highlight the opportunity for patriotic overseas Pakistanis and not Imran's followers. These two groups do not necessarily overlap. It is you who are clearly confused because you think that you belong to both groups. This may not be the reality

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@TheDarkKnight

And I consider it hypocritical to people preaching investment in X when they themselves wont invest in X.

@Wood Saar is an Indian. Why would he invest in Pak securities?

Independent of what Wood saar thinks, I have posted in the past that PAK is today where IND was in 1991. Anyone who stayed invested in IND then would be a crorepati many times over now. There is a lesson in that for every Pakistani citizen or overseas Pakistani. Baaki aap ki marzi.

Regards