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India Could Be the Next Target for Angry Americans
Posted by: Steve Hamm on March 23
Reference:
India Could Be the Next Target for Angry Americans - BusinessWeek
Fear and loathing are on the rise in the United States. Right now the emotions are focused on AIG and Bernie Madoffdeserving targets for populist ire. But mob passions cant be controlled, so there are huge risks to the United States and the world if the mob and its emotions start to rule. The greatest dangers are that the government wont be able to rescue industries and institutions that should be rescued to keep the economy from totally tanking, and that protectionism will take hold both in the US and worldwide.
Today, Im focusing on protectionism and its fallout. The New York Times published a Page 1 story this morning showing how protectionism is on the rise worldwide in response to global economic pressures. I picked up a piece of analysis over the weekend from economist and author Paul Colliers book, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It. He points out that the last period that the world went protectionist in a big way was the years 1914 to 1945. We can see what a raging success that was!
When the mob gets tired of pursuing AIG and Madoff, it will look for other targets to bay after. India is at risk. Inciter Lou Dobbs keeps pounding away at the foreigner and immigrant. Meanwhile, US Senators Richard Durbin and Chuck Grassley are crafting new legislation aimed at further tightening H1B and L1 visa rules. Its expected to be submitted to Congress by April 3. Visa reform is legitimate, if there are abuses. But it becomes dangerous if the legislation ignites an angry broadbased backlash against India and offshoring.
Dont get me wrong. I think a measured dose of protectionism can be useful at times of crisis or in response to abuses by other nations. Its legit if its done rationally and in a carefully targeted way. Its not okay if it erects major barriers to trade.
It could harm both nations if the US goes after India. For starters, wheres the harm or unfairness? Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show US employment in the category of computer systems design and related services at 1.463 million in February. Thats down just 5,000 from a peak of 1.468 million last November. This is the category of employee that would be most affected by IT offshoring. Yet its just off an all-time highand at a time when Wall Street has fired thousands of techies because of its own mistakes, not anything the Indian tech industry has done. I tried to get business process outsourcing-oriented job stats from the BLS, but they mix up BPO-type jobs with janitors and security guards, so its impossible to connect shifts there with offshoring.
Nasscom, the Indian software/service trade association, hired McKinsey & Co. during the last recession to do an analysis of the impact of Indian outsourcing on the US economy and jobs. The results showed a positive impactmore jobs created. The argument is that by making American companies more efficient, offshoring makes it possible for them to grow and hire additional employees. Theres logic to that, but, since the Indians hired McKinsey to do the study, the conclusions arent as credible as they would be if the study was independent.
Concerning the potential for US visa restrictions, he says: Trade is a two-way street. We need to keep the movement of people open.
Thats a key point. Trade isnt just about merchandise. Its about labor and capital, as well. And if American pundits and policymakers fail to realize that, trade between the US and India will be neither free no fair. Thats something people on both sides of the globe need to be concerned about
Posted by: Steve Hamm on March 23
Reference:
India Could Be the Next Target for Angry Americans - BusinessWeek
Fear and loathing are on the rise in the United States. Right now the emotions are focused on AIG and Bernie Madoffdeserving targets for populist ire. But mob passions cant be controlled, so there are huge risks to the United States and the world if the mob and its emotions start to rule. The greatest dangers are that the government wont be able to rescue industries and institutions that should be rescued to keep the economy from totally tanking, and that protectionism will take hold both in the US and worldwide.
Today, Im focusing on protectionism and its fallout. The New York Times published a Page 1 story this morning showing how protectionism is on the rise worldwide in response to global economic pressures. I picked up a piece of analysis over the weekend from economist and author Paul Colliers book, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It. He points out that the last period that the world went protectionist in a big way was the years 1914 to 1945. We can see what a raging success that was!
When the mob gets tired of pursuing AIG and Madoff, it will look for other targets to bay after. India is at risk. Inciter Lou Dobbs keeps pounding away at the foreigner and immigrant. Meanwhile, US Senators Richard Durbin and Chuck Grassley are crafting new legislation aimed at further tightening H1B and L1 visa rules. Its expected to be submitted to Congress by April 3. Visa reform is legitimate, if there are abuses. But it becomes dangerous if the legislation ignites an angry broadbased backlash against India and offshoring.
Dont get me wrong. I think a measured dose of protectionism can be useful at times of crisis or in response to abuses by other nations. Its legit if its done rationally and in a carefully targeted way. Its not okay if it erects major barriers to trade.
It could harm both nations if the US goes after India. For starters, wheres the harm or unfairness? Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show US employment in the category of computer systems design and related services at 1.463 million in February. Thats down just 5,000 from a peak of 1.468 million last November. This is the category of employee that would be most affected by IT offshoring. Yet its just off an all-time highand at a time when Wall Street has fired thousands of techies because of its own mistakes, not anything the Indian tech industry has done. I tried to get business process outsourcing-oriented job stats from the BLS, but they mix up BPO-type jobs with janitors and security guards, so its impossible to connect shifts there with offshoring.
Nasscom, the Indian software/service trade association, hired McKinsey & Co. during the last recession to do an analysis of the impact of Indian outsourcing on the US economy and jobs. The results showed a positive impactmore jobs created. The argument is that by making American companies more efficient, offshoring makes it possible for them to grow and hire additional employees. Theres logic to that, but, since the Indians hired McKinsey to do the study, the conclusions arent as credible as they would be if the study was independent.
Concerning the potential for US visa restrictions, he says: Trade is a two-way street. We need to keep the movement of people open.
Thats a key point. Trade isnt just about merchandise. Its about labor and capital, as well. And if American pundits and policymakers fail to realize that, trade between the US and India will be neither free no fair. Thats something people on both sides of the globe need to be concerned about