Analysis: Saudi Arabian Air and Missile Defences

[AmirPatriot]

posted by Amir on May 16, 2019

In a time of high tensions, Saudi Arabia's air defences are at their weakest in decades.
Iran's future with Saudi Arabia is uncertain, but one thing we know for sure is that it's not friendly. I've talked extensively about Iran's ability to defend against Saudi Arabia, but with the Kingdom buying a large force of THAAD and PAC-3 interceptors, it is necessary to discuss the Saudis' ability to defend as well. I touched on Saudi air defences briefly in a previous blog post, but I have decided to go into the subject in more detail. Indeed, I will go into more detail than I did for the Iranian air defences. OPSEC for the Saudis does not concern me.


Current (2019) Saudi SAM coverage

Click the link below for the full blog post and analysis!

https://irangeomil.blogspot.com/2019/05/analysis-saudi-arabian-air-and-missile.html

 

[Sina-1]

posted by Amir on May 16, 2019

In a time of high tensions, Saudi Arabia's air defences are at their weakest in decades.
Iran's future with Saudi Arabia is uncertain, but one thing we know for sure is that it's not friendly. I've talked extensively about Iran's ability to defend against Saudi Arabia, but with the Kingdom buying a large force of THAAD and PAC-3 interceptors, it is necessary to discuss the Saudis' ability to defend as well. I touched on Saudi air defences briefly in a previous blog post, but I have decided to go into the subject in more detail. Indeed, I will go into more detail than I did for the Iranian air defences. OPSEC for the Saudis does not concern me.

Current (2019) Saudi SAM coverage

Click the link below for the full blog post and analysis!

https://irangeomil.blogspot.com/2019/05/analysis-saudi-arabian-air-and-missile.html

Great analysis. So how do you think their future coverage will be like after they received all new systems?

 

[LeGenD]

Good effort, but you missed following information.

Link: https://i0.wp.com/missilethreat.csi...Missile_Yemen_timeline_042018._reducedjpg.jpg

Secondly:-

THAAD = Interceptor class
PAC-3 = Interceptor class
PAC-3 MSE = Interceptor class (designed with Russian 9K720 Iskander in mind)

"The MSE version has a larger, dual-pulse solid-rocket motor and larger control fins that double the missile’s reach and improve performance against evolving ballistic and cruise missiles."

More information in this post: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/afte...y-rosoboronexport.580579/page-4#post-10846177

All of the above are incredibly maneuverable interceptors with sufficient potential to defeat so-called MaRV and/or distinguish actual warheads from potential countermeasures with cues from AN/MPQ-65 and AN/TPY-2 radar systems respectively.

FTT-18 was a four-stage IRBM class target.

FET-01 was a cutting-edge MRBM class target with countermeasures (classified); and this one was taken out in Low Endo altitude range (i.e. maneuvering flight characteristic).

THAAD is evidently capable of defeating various types of ballistic missiles, and will receive 'software update' to recognize and defeat HGV types.

---

Up to 16 launch tubes possible with PAC-3 standard interceptors:-

Multi-configuration:-

Multi-configuration setup is ideal for enabling MIM-104 Patriot system to defeat a wide range of targets in its vicinity.

 

[Khafee]

Good effort, but you missed following information.

Link: https://i0.wp.com/missilethreat.csi...Missile_Yemen_timeline_042018._reducedjpg.jpg

Secondly:-

THAAD = Interceptor class
PAC-3 = Interceptor class
PAC-3 MSE = Interceptor class (designed with Russian 9K720 Iskander in mind)

"The MSE version has a larger, dual-pulse solid-rocket motor and larger control fins that double the missile’s reach and improve performance against evolving ballistic and cruise missiles."

All of the above are incredibly maneuverable interceptors with sufficient potential to defeat so-called MaRV and/or distinguish actual warheads from potential countermeasures with cues from AN/MPQ-65 and AN/TPY-2 radar systems respectively. THAAD will receive software update to defeat HGVs as well.

THAAD is clearly capable of defeating various types of ballistic missiles.

FTT-18 was a four-stage IRBM class target.

FET-01 was a cutting-edge MRBM class target with countermeasures (classified); and this one was taken out in Low Endo altitude range which in turn imply maneuvering flight characteristic of this particular target.

Do not be under any illusion in this respect.

What THAAD does not cover, Destroyers do.

 

[zartosht]

how well protected are their water de-salination plants?

Saudis have made a strategic error by building these massive bases that become easy targets incase of war. I have heard its got something to do with comfort and AC. The bigger the base, the more amenities they can provide.

 

[AmirPatriot]

Good effort, but you missed following information.

Most of those intercepts are likely of much lower-capability heavy artillery rockets or short range missiles that can only reach into Southern KSA. Whenever the PAC-2 has faced more capable targets like the Burkan-2H that struck Riyadh (link to the independent analysis by missile experts is in my blog), they've failed.

PAC-3 MSE = Interceptor class (designed with Russian 9K720 Iskander in mind)

"The MSE version has a larger, dual-pulse solid-rocket motor and larger control fins that double the missile’s reach and improve performance against evolving ballistic and cruise missiles."

The link to the 600 missile PAC-3 purchase in my blog was wrong, now corrected. Here it is anyway. In that DSCA release it specifies that the PAC-3s purchased by KSA are the CRI (Cost Reduction Initiative) version, not the MSE.

All of the above are incredibly maneuverable interceptors with sufficient potential to defeat so-called MaRV and/or distinguish actual warheads from potential countermeasures with cues from AN/MPQ-65 and AN/TPY-2 radar systems respectively.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/04/world/middleeast/saudi-missile-defense.html

^ in that analysis by missile experts they judged that the PAC-2 was unable to defeat a Burkan-2H (effectively an Iranian Qiam with a separating but not maneuvering warhead). We don't know the PAC-3's combat capability because it was either not used in Saudi Arabia, or its use was not distinguished from the PAC-2.

I'm aware that the PAC-3 has been tested against maneuvering targets, but this capability yet to be proven in combat. I think @PeeD discussed the Zolfaqar's MaRV capability a while back.

FET-01 was a cutting-edge MRBM class target with countermeasures (classified); and this one was taken out in Low Endo altitude range (i.e. maneuvering flight characteristic).

THAAD is evidently capable of defeating various types of ballistic missiles, and will receive 'software update' to recognize and defeat HGV types.

Nevertheless, the Saudis have clearly bought THAAD for the exo-atmospheric regime, and PAC-3 for endo. Otherwise there would be no reason to buy PAC-3. THAAD is clearly optimised for the exo-atmospheric role with its kill vehicle which is supposed to jettison its protective shroud in space.

What THAAD does not cover, Destroyers do.

Saudi Arabia does not have any destroyers, let alone any with ABM capability.

 

[Khafee]

Saudi Arabia does not have any destroyers, let alone any with ABM capability.

I never said it did!

See this is the problem with armchair generals, when it comes to actual Operational ground realities, they are clueless.

 

[WinterNights]

Saudi Arabia does not have any destroyers, let alone any with ABM capability.

Of course not, what he means is papa US will have to come to their rescue with their destroyers. Like Trump said, these saudis would not last 2 weeks without the Americans.

 

[Sina-1]

I never said it did!

See this is the problem with armchair generals, when it comes to actual Operational ground realities, they are clueless.

I for one find it hilarious that the saudi user behaves exactly like his government. Completely clueless and relying on others to survive. Why do you even buy these weapons? Just pay the americans to take care of your security.

 

[WinterNights]

I for one find it hilarious that the saudi user behaves exactly like his government. Completely clueless and relying on others to survive. Why do you even buy these weapons? Just pay the americans to take care of your security.

Their ruling family fears its own people more than anyone else. All those diamond covered tanks are to protect their own ruling family.

These camel jockeys could not fight their way out of a plastic bag. In a real conflict, Iran would slaughter them with ease. Even the Americans have said this.

Saudi Arabia Won't Last Two Weeks Without US Support:

https://www.news18.com/news/world/s...donald-trumps-latest-global-gaff-1896461.html

 

[Bahram Esfandiari]

The only people that these Gulfies know how to beat are their poor slave servants!

 

[Kastor]

As long as these monarchs are in power in the middle east, the region will stay weak and fractured. It's really amazing how many subservient governments there are in this small patch of the world, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, before the war Yeman and we might have to thrown in Oman with the new navy leases they've granted to the U.S......

 

[Titanium100]

I honestly hope Saudi Arabia declares war on Iran just to show you all how fast Iran will fold. This is historical fact they are bottlers and have experienced biggest upsets for a reason.

It won't be different. Nobody will fight for them except themselves they couldn't beat ISIS in Syria where Russia and the US had to defeat them. Iran is a paper tiger and people will find out once shit hits the fane

 

[Mithridates]

this photo depicts that 30% of missile strikes were successful and considering that houthis only fire a single missile on target, it's a disaster. consider iran fires two missiles per target, the percentage gonna be more than 60%, and with 3 missiles more than 90%. consider the other fact that if an AD intercepts 3 targets it's range gonna fall because it has to divide the radar beam/output power to 3 targets.

i don't know how you considered this as a victory, because unlike houthis that fired ~200 missiles in god knows how many years, we gonna launch twice that number in a day.

 

[Philip the Arab]

You subhumans can't even defeat the Houthis, Iran would slaughter the saudis very badly. It will actually be very scary to see.



What are you blabbering about you camel jockey?



Iranian proxies are the reason Iraq, Syria etc have defeated you terrorists. Russians airpower came years after these conflicts began.



So what are you camel jockeys waiting for? Make a move then.

@waz @Dubious @Horus
Racist piece of shi* alert. Please warn him not to call Arabs camel jockeys please.