Analysis: Saudi Arabian Air and Missile Defences

[waz]

Stop the insults please gents. The next reminder will not be polite.

 

[AmirPatriot]

Great analysis. So how do you think their future coverage will be like after they received all new systems?

That is in the latter part of the post.

 

[Kastor]

Stop the insults please gents. The next reminder will not be polite.

Agreed, there is no need for the name calling.

 

[LeGenD]

this photo depicts that 30% of missile strikes were successful and considering that houthis only fire a single missile on target, it's a disaster. consider iran fires two missiles per target, the percentage gonna be more than 60%, and with 3 missiles more than 90%. consider the other fact that if an AD intercepts 3 targets it's range gonna fall because it has to divide the radar beam/output power to 3 targets.

i don't know how you considered this as a victory, because unlike houthis that fired ~200 missiles in god knows how many years, we gonna launch twice that number in a day.

Revisit this link: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile-war-yemen/

"Beginning in June 2015, the bulk of these incidents have occurred along the Yemen-Saudi border around the cities of Jizan, Najran, and Khamis Mushait, but Houthi acquisition of longer-range missiles have also permitted attacks as far as Riyadh. Saudi and UAE Patriot missile defenses have intercepted a very high percentage of these launches, greatly limiting damage. Significant activity has also been seen around Al-Mohka and the Straits of Bab-al Mandab, where Houthi-Saleh forces have repeatedly fired antiship cruise missiles at both Emirati and U.S. naval vessels.

As of April 4, 2019, there have been 133 publicly reported intercepts of missiles fired from Yemen."

First, we take a look at attacks in distant locations.

Statistics of ballistic missile strikes in Riyadh:-

SUCCESSFUL STRIKES = 3
INTERCEPTS = 8

On February 5, 2017, a Burkan-1 SRBM struck a military camp west of Riyadh. On March 18, 2017, a Burkan-2 MRBM struck King Salman air base. On November 4, 2017, a Burkan-2H aimed at King Khalid International Airport was initially reported as intercepted, though independent analysts dispute the Saudi government's claims. On June 24, 2018, KSA air defenses intercepted two Burkan-2H SRBMs targeting the Ministry of Defense Information Center.

Statistics of ballistic missile strikes in Taif:-

SUCCESSFUL STRIKES = 0
INTERCEPTS = 1

On October 9, 2016, Houthi-Saleh forces fired a Burkan-1 SRBM from Sadah province toward King Fahd air base, marking this as one of the longest-ranged missile attacks in the conflict.

Statistics of ballistic missile strikes in Mecca:-

SUCCESSFUL STRIKES = 0
INTERCEPTS = 2

On October 27, 2016, coalition air defenses intercepted a Burkan-1 SRBM heading towards Mecca. Another Burkan-1 was intercepted on July 27, 2017. Saudi state media reported that these missiles were aimed at the holy city of Mecca. Houthi-Saleh reports claim the first missile targeted King Abdul Aziz international airport in Jeddah, and the second targeted King Fahd air base.

NOTE: PAC-3 standard is deployed in Mecca only.

Statistics of ballistic missile strikes in Yanbu:-

SUCCESSFUL STRIKES = 1
INTERCEPTS = 1

On July 22, 2017, a Burkan-2 MRBM struck a Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Yanbu. Another Burkan-2 was intercepted near Yanbu on June 5, 2018.

---

Now, of-course, potential targets in cities/towns located near Yemen such as Abha, Najran and Jizan were subject to greater amount of firepower from the Houthi forces in comparison to potential targets in distant cities/towns such as Riyadh, Taif, Mecca and Yanbu. Accordingly, number of intercepts are also higher in locations near Yemen, and the performance of any Patriot defense battery in these locations is rather representative of its effectiveness under stressful conditions.

Any Patriot defense battery is expected to be operationalized with up to 6 launchers in total, but the number of launchers can be increased to 9 if necessary.

Launcher capacity for PAC-2 class interceptors = ~4

Launcher capacity for PAC-3 standard class interceptors = ~16

Launcher capacity for PAC-3 MSE class interceptors = ~12

Depending upon actual configurations, number of interceptors deployed might widely vary from battery to battery. And theoretical/technical effectiveness will also vary in accordance with types of interceptors involved.

IMHO, a Patriot battery featuring a mix of PAC-3 standard and PAC-3 MSE class interceptors, and with up to 9 launchers in total, would be an extraordinarily capable point defense system to shield any high value target from a wide range of potential threats. However, expensive setup as well.

Above all, best form of defense is to go on the offensive in the first place if feasible. Efforts expended upon INTEL gathering, attacking ballistic missile launchers, ballistic missile production facilities, communications systems, power grids, and centers of power deep inside enemy territory are worth it. Agenda should be to prevent a potential enemy to subject your territory to a large number of strikes in the first place. This is why a well-equipped Air Force have no substitute in warfare.

KSA is learning from its war in Yemen, and Iran need to worry.

 

[Mithridates]

KSA is learning from its war in Yemen, and Iran need to worry.

actually the only thing yemen war proved was accuracy of iranian projecting power methods, our missiles were successful, we blow up several ships, our drones freely travel inside their territory and so on.

 

[AmirPatriot]

KSA is learning from its war in Yemen, and Iran need to worry.

In this case, learning = buying. Yemen was probably one of the reasons why the Saudis decided to buy the THAAD.

 

[burning_phoneix]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/04/world/middleeast/saudi-missile-defense.html

^ in that analysis by missile experts they judged that the PAC-2 was unable to defeat a Burkan-2H (effectively an Iranian Qiam with a separating but not maneuvering warhead). We don't know the PAC-3's combat capability because it was either not used in Saudi Arabia, or its use was not distinguished from the PAC-2.

The analysis is to put it lightly, wrong. A missile with a 1500+ pound warhead Warhead struck right next to a busy international airport and there was basically no real major effect on the ground or on flight delays is ludicrous. The only evidence they have is:

A) There are no pictures of the Warhead
B) There was some smoke outside King Khalid International Airport and if you kind of squint and look at it, it looks like the smoke from another low resolution pic of a missile strike

Not to mention that they assume that there is only one missile battery firing at the target.

And there's this line

Saudi officials have said that some debris from the intercepted missile landed at the airport. But it is difficult to imagine how one errant piece could fly 12 miles beyond the rest of the debris, or why it would detonate on impact.

Yes, why would an object weighing many thousands of kilograms and traveling many times the speed of sound from very high up in the atmosphere, after being struck by another exploding missile, move so far away from the other pieces of the missile and also be on fire??

On February 5, 2017, a Burkan-1 SRBM struck a military camp west of Riyadh. On March 18, 2017, a Burkan-2 MRBM struck King Salman air base. On November 4, 2017, a Burkan-2H aimed at King Khalid International Airport was initially reported as intercepted, though independent analysts dispute the Saudi government's claims. On June 24, 2018, KSA air defenses intercepted two Burkan-2H SRBMs targeting the Ministry of Defense Information Center.

That entire report is bogus. It's methodology is:

A)Did the Houthis claim to hit a a target?
B) Did the Saudis issue any denial?

If the answer to the first is Yes and the second is No. It's listed as a strike.

For example, Burkan struck King Salman Air Base?

The Proof? Pictures? Video? No... it's this:

Yes....a claim....by a Houthi channel...is considered a successful strike.

How do I know its false?

Do you know where King Salman Air Base is?

It's located.....right at the center of Riyadh.

In easy view of anyone who drives past the highways that actually overlook the airbase.

In easy view of the sky scrapers that are just 1km to the west.

---

Most of those intercepts are likely of much lower-capability heavy artillery rockets or short range missiles that can only reach into Southern KSA.

The complete opposite actually.

The vast majority of successful strikes are done by short range projectiles on Najran and Asir, which are much more difficult to intercept due to their short flight times.

It's why Israel has invested so much into the Iron Dome system: defense against artillery rockets and short range missiles is incredibly difficult and not cost effective because most militaries use entire batteries of Multiple Launch Rocket Vehicles that over 20 rockets each, what's the point of intercepting those when hundreds are coming in?

It's only until the advent of single launch artillery rockets by paramilitary groups did anyone even design systems for these.

---

As for your report itself, Military Author Tom Cooper responded to it. I highly recommend everyone read his response:

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FLessCredibleDefence%252Fcomments%252Fbqdpbj%252Firanian_blogger_analysis_of_saudi_arabian_air_and%252Feo3lqi8

 

[WinterNights]

As for your report itself, Military Author Tom Cooper responded to it. I highly recommend everyone read his response:

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FLessCredibleDefence%252Fcomments%252Fbqdpbj%252Firanian_blogger_analysis_of_saudi_arabian_air_and%252Feo3lqi8

Tom Cooper is a clown, who takes that moron seriously except you people?

 

[Sina-1]

As for your report itself, Military Author Tom Cooper responded to it. I highly recommend everyone read his response:

I also highly recommend it. Especially amir’s knockout responses to the bitter and pitiful tc.

 

[Surenas]

I honestly hope Saudi Arabia declares war on Iran just to show you all how fast Iran will fold. This is historical fact they are bottlers and have experienced biggest upsets for a reason.

It won't be different. Nobody will fight for them except themselves they couldn't beat ISIS in Syria where Russia and the US had to defeat them. Iran is a paper tiger and people will find out once shit hits the fane

Anyone who claims that Iran is a historical bottler or that Tehran will declare defeat once the most incompetent military nation in the region (KSA) declares war upon it is nothing more than a uneducated clown. If history shows anything, it is that Iran has showed strong commitment and persistent in its military adventures. The longest war in history has been fought between the Romans and Persians. In the 20st century, a lack of adequate military hardware and commited allies didn't stop Iran from waging war against a Iraq that was heavily supported by major global powers.

Read some history boks before opening your mouth.

 

[AmirPatriot]

The analysis is to put it lightly, wrong. A missile with a 1500+ pound warhead Warhead struck right next to a busy international airport and there was basically no real major effect on the ground or on flight delays is ludicrous.

To be precise, the Burkan-2H probably had a smaller, ~500 kg warhead in order to reach Riyadh. And I don't know about flight delays, but there were certainly emergency vehicles driving on the runway towards the struck area.

As for the image, if you look at their image (Figure 1) and the zoomed-in image I created (Figure 2), it seems the impact was just short of the end of the runway, on the sand in fact. At that point all it can do is create a hole and some smoke, since there's nothing to damage.

Figure 1 (from the NYT article)

Figure 2

Not to mention that they assume that there is only one missile battery firing at the target.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can verify this by ourselves. If you look at the .kmz file (linked at the end of my blog post), and open it up in Google Earth, you can go back through the history layer on GE and see the sites for yourself. There are 2 prepared Patriot sites in the city of Riyadh; one in the centre, at King Salman Airbase, and another adjacent to King Khalid International. At the time of the strike (early November 2017), only the site at King Salman Airbase was occupied, with the other empty (again I stress that you can verify this yourself). Not only does this corroborate the single-battery claim, but also the assertion that the warhead travelled 'over the top' of the Patriot site (Figure 3), since King Khalid International is right at the edge of the Patriot's ballistic missile interception range (Figure 4).

Figure 3 (from the NYT article)

Figure 4. Red ring indicates range of Patriot at King Salman Airbase vs ballistic missiles

Yes, why would an object weighing many thousands of kilograms and traveling many times the speed of sound from very high up in the atmosphere, after being struck by another exploding missile, move so far away from the other pieces of the missile and also be on fire??

The PAC-2 relies on proximity-fuse, not hit-to-kill, so it's not going to knock the missile wildly off-course. Plus, its possible the warhead separation occurred quite late in the flight. And the PAC-2's flight ceiling is about 65,000-80,000 ft - high for aircraft but very low for ballistic missiles. And no, random debris doesn't explode or even burn on the ground. You could see that in the videos in the article, bits of debris (not on fire) by the side of the road and Saudis just driving past it like it's nothing.

The complete opposite actually.

The vast majority of successful strikes are done by short range projectiles on Najran and Asir, which are much more difficult to intercept due to their short flight times.

It's why Israel has invested so much into the Iron Dome system: defense against artillery rockets and short range missiles is incredibly difficult and not cost effective because most militaries use entire batteries of Multiple Launch Rocket Vehicles that over 20 rockets each, what's the point of intercepting those when hundreds are coming in?

I meant heavy artillery rockets like Zelzal-3, not MLRS. There's also SRBMs like Tochka, Scud-B, even converted S-75 SAMs. None of these are launched in 20 rocket MLRS trucks. Always single missile per launcher, especially for a group like the Houthis.

By the way, in terms of proportions, CSIS has quite good interception rates for the (comparatively) smaller rockets+missiles.

Najran 11 Strikes 29 Interceptions
Khamis Mushait 4 strikes 17 interceptions
Jizan 3 strikes 45 interceptions

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile-war-yemen/

Either way, grad-type MLRS rocket don't have the range.

As for your report itself, Military Author Tom Cooper responded to it. I highly recommend everyone read his response:

I saw that earlier and replied to him. I'm afraid I was quite disappointed given his reputation. In the end he had no substantive argument and ended up ranting about Iranian air defences and the definition of point defence.

 

[sepasgozar]

To be precise, the Burkan-2H probably had a smaller, ~500 kg warhead in order to reach Riyadh. And I don't know about flight delays, but there were certainly emergency vehicles driving on the runway towards the struck area.

As for the image, if you look at their image (Figure 1) and the zoomed-in image I created (Figure 2), it seems the impact was just short of the end of the runway, on the sand in fact. At that point all it can do is create a hole and some smoke, since there's nothing to damage.

View attachment 561635
Figure 1 (from the NYT article)

View attachment 561634
Figure 2



With the benefit of hindsight, we can verify this by ourselves. If you look at the .kmz file (linked at the end of my blog post), and open it up in Google Earth, you can go back through the history layer on GE and see the sites for yourself. There are 2 prepared Patriot sites in the city of Riyadh; one in the centre, at King Salman Airbase, and another adjacent to King Khalid International. At the time of the strike (early November 2017), only the site at King Salman Airbase was occupied, with the other empty (again I stress that you can verify this yourself). Not only does this corroborate the single-battery claim, but also the assertion that the warhead travelled 'over the top' of the Patriot site (Figure 3), since King Khalid International is right at the edge of the Patriot's ballistic missile interception range (Figure 4).

View attachment 561639
Figure 3 (from the NYT article)

Figure 4. Red ring indicates range of Patriot at King Salman Airbase vs ballistic missiles



The PAC-2 relies on proximity-fuse, not hit-to-kill, so it's not going to knock the missile wildly off-course. Plus, its possible the warhead separation occurred quite late in the flight. And the PAC-2's flight ceiling is about 65,000-80,000 ft - high for aircraft but very low for ballistic missiles. And no, random debris doesn't explode or even burn on the ground. You could see that in the videos in the article, bits of debris (not on fire) by the side of the road and Saudis just driving past it like it's nothing.



I meant heavy artillery rockets like Zelzal-3, not MLRS. There's also SRBMs like Tochka, Scud-B, even converted S-75 SAMs. None of these are launched in 20 rocket MLRS trucks. Always single missile per launcher, especially for a group like the Houthis.

By the way, in terms of proportions, CSIS has quite good interception rates for the (comparatively) smaller rockets+missiles.

Najran 11 Strikes 29 Interceptions
Khamis Mushait 4 strikes 17 interceptions
Jizan 3 strikes 45 interceptions

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile-war-yemen/

Either way, grad-type MLRS rocket don't have the range.



I saw that earlier and replied to him. I'm afraid I was quite disappointed given his reputation. In the end he had no substantive argument and ended up ranting about Iranian air defences and the definition of point defence.

I saw his reply, and had something to day. Nice work on the analysis Amir. I follow you on twitter as well

 

[OldTwilight]

Anyone who claims that Iran is a historical bottler or that Tehran will declare defeat once the most incompetent military nation in the region (KSA) declares war upon it is nothing more than a uneducated clown. If history shows anything, it is that Iran has showed strong commitment and persistent in its military adventures. The longest war in history has been fought between the Romans and Persians. In the 20st century, a lack of adequate military hardware and commited allies didn't stop Iran from waging war against a Iraq that was heavily supported by major global powers.

Read some history boks before opening your mouth.

He didn't open his mouth .... He opened somewhere else which smells bad

 

[Sineva]

I saw that earlier and replied to him. I'm afraid I was quite disappointed given his reputation. In the end he had no substantive argument and ended up ranting about Iranian air defences and the definition of point defence.

Yes,I must admit I was really quite shocked at the guys behavior and attitude,especially considering his supposed reputation as a published author,not that that means as much as it used to these days,and as something of an reputable source when it came to the history of the air war during the iran iraq war,and yet here he was quibbling over the definition of "point defence" like some angry teenage fanboi or walter mitty type "military expert",frankly it was rather bizarre but you handled it beautifully I thought.
After reading your exchange I decided to have a quick look at some of his other posts and I found one that was a real doozy/dusey,If I didnt know better I`d have sworn it was co written by babak taghvaee and anthony cordesman,because it was literally that fvcking bad.

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FWarCollege%252Fcomments%252Fbp5bpk%252F

 

[Sina-1]

Yes,I must admit I was really quite shocked at the guys behavior and attitude,especially considering his supposed reputation as a published author,not that that means as much as it used to these days,and as something of an reputable source when it came to the history of the air war during the iran iraq war,and yet here he was quibbling over the definition of "point defence" like some angry teenage fanboi or walter mitty type "military expert",frankly it was rather bizarre but you handled it beautifully I thought.
After reading your exchange I decided to have a quick look at some of his other posts and I found one that was a real doozy/dusey,If I didnt know better I`d have sworn it was co written by babak taghvaee and anthony cordesman,because it was literally that fvcking bad.

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FWarCollege%252Fcomments%252Fbp5bpk%252F

Honestly I did not recognize TCs usual writing pattern in that post, as I have read a lot of his past material. TC always struck me to be a calm and respectful debater. This person is, as you are pointing to, behaving like teenager.
If it really is TC then I’m afraid he doesn’t seem to be in a good place irl. Deluded and mad!
@PeeD you have a good understanding of TC. Is this really the same person? And if yes, what the hell has happened to him?