America's dominance is over. By 2030, we'll have a handful of global powers

[Baybars Han]

If India grows at the current rate of 7.6%, then India will be third largest before 2030. If India growth rate slumps, then it will take more time than 2030 to displace Japan from the third place.



The seer population sizes of China and India and high growth rates of these two countries will make sure that there is high chance that these forecasts about India and China will come true, unless some major economic or political upheaval happens.

What if Japan economy starts growing at a decent pace too? I doubt India is going to grow at 7% for over 10 years. There is also Germany. I remember alot of people saying India world's 3rd largest in 2020.

 

[gambit]

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/01/soviet-growth-american-textbooks.html

In the 1961 edition of his famous textbook of economic principles, Paul Samuelson wrote that GNP in the Soviet Union was about half that in the United States but the Soviet Union was growing faster. As a result, one could comfortably forecast that Soviet GNP would exceed that of the United States by as early as 1984 or perhaps by as late as 1997 and in any event Soviet GNP would greatly catch-up to U.S. GNP. A poor forecast–but it gets worse because in subsequent editions Samuelson presented the same analysis again and again except the overtaking time was always pushed further into the future so by 1980 the dates were 2002 to 2012. In subsequent editions, Samuelson provided no acknowledgment of his past failure to predict and little commentary beyond remarks about “bad weather” in the Soviet Union...

Paul Samuelson is a Nobel Prize-ed economist.

 

[beijingwalker]

20 years ago they predicted that Japan's economy would overtake US in 5-10 years, and look at where Japan is now. predictions are never right.

 

[ito]

I read something similar to that as well. Something about Eastern Europe contributing to the inevitability that the Soviet economy will be greater than the US.

Yes, predictions can go wrong sometimes. This could happen with the present prediction as well.

 

[Articulate]

Before I joined the USAF in 1983, I read many analysts, Americans, Soviets, Europeans, and Asians, who predicted that by the late 1980s, the Soviet economy will be the largest in the world.

Incorrect predictions in the past do not necessarily mean incorrect predictions of the future.

That US is losing its relative dominance is an established fact. It is a zero sum game. The influence that China and India increase directly reduces US influence in those regions.

The question is how much. Will China supplant US entirely as the most dominant economy and power? Highly unlikely. Will US remain as powerful vis-a-vis other countries as it has been for the last 2-3 decades? Highly unlikely.

The result will be somewhere in between.

 

[Articulate]

I doubt India is going to grow at 7% for over 10 years.

That much is as certain as the sun rises in the East.
India is around 7.5% and trying to gun higher currently in an environment of global uncertainty and trade protectionism.
Short of the next great depression, there is no logical circumstance where it would dip down.

It can only go up if the global economic environment improves.

 

[ito]

What if Japan economy starts growing at a decent pace too? I doubt India is going to grow at 7% for over 10 years. There is also Germany. I remember alot of people saying India world's 3rd largest in 2020.

Japan has older and stagnant population, and their economic growth rate is near zero. Yes, India may not grow at 7% for over next 10 years, but indications show that India can grow at over 7% for over 10 years. India and China were the two largest economies in the world for most of the human history. Both slumped around 1800's, when western world took over the east because of Industrialization and colonization. It is due that India and China reclaim their pre 1800's position

 

[AUz]

By 2030-40, both india and Pakistan will be great military powers having completely operational nuclear triad and ability to launch nuclear strikes pretty much anywhere around the globe via their submarines.

Exciting times..

 

[Baybars Han]

That much is as certain as the sun rises in the East.
India is around 7.5% and trying to gun higher currently in an environment of global uncertainty and trade protectionism.
Short of the next great depression, there is no logical circumstance where it would dip down.

It can only go up if the global economic environment improves.

One dive of the rupee and instantly your gdp falls. You can never be sure. Tomorow India is involved in a war, fdi drops, rupee drops India economy downhill or another circumstance can happen, but we will see.

 

[AUz]

Before I joined the USAF in 1983, I read many analysts, Americans, Soviets, Europeans, and Asians, who predicted that by the late 1980s, the Soviet economy will be the largest in the world.

Yeah, but China's economy being larger than the states is nothing but an assurity at this point.

 

[Articulate]

By 2030-40, both india and Pakistan will be great military powers having completely operation nuclear triad and ability to launch nuclear strikes pretty much anywhere around the globe via their submarines.

Exciting times..

1. India will achieve operational nuclear triad before 2020.
2. Great military power status implies ability to independently launch and maintain global expeditionary forces of a certain size. Having a nuclear triad does not mean Great military power. Just like Israel has a nuclear triad but is not a Great military power. Just like Pakistan even if it gets a nuclear triad will not be a Great military power.

 

[AUz]

1. India will achieve operational nuclear triad before 2020.
2. Great military power status implies ability to independently launch and maintain global expeditionary forces of a certain size. Having a nuclear triad does not mean Great military power. Just like Israel has a nuclear triad but is not a Great military power. Just like Pakistan even if it gets a nuclear triad will not be a Great military power.

Well, in that case neither would india lol..but I don't think so.

If Israel had the same capability but a size compared to that of Pakistan, offcourse it would have been a great military power.

Israel is too small to be relevant...

india and Pakistan aren't.

 

[gambit]

Yeah, but China's economy being larger than the states is nothing but an assurity at this point.

Yes, it is 'definitely assured'.

 

[Articulate]

Well, in that case neither would india lol..but I don't think so.

If Israel had the same capability but a size compared to that of Pakistan, offcourse it would have been a great military power.

Israel is too small to be relevant...

india and Pakistan aren't.

India isn't now. Neither is China for that matter.

But considering the growth of Indian economy and the increasing military budget it would be able to achieve that by 2040. China would be able to achieve that before 2025.

You presume that Pakistan's size allows it to. That is irrelevant. Size geographical or demographical is irrelevant.

Economic size is relevant. Pakistan would not be able to achieve Great military power requirements for an extremely long time to come if ever.
That is not the case with India.

 

[Albatross]

I guess overt and covert terror support by governments of US and India will lead to disintegration of these nations into many smaller one's in a decade or two depending on how badly they use terror ops to try to exert/maintain some influence in Afghanistan ( India and USA both) and Middle east/Syria/Iraq ( Mostly US and Nato but even india enjoys good relations with ISIS there remember the way IS freed Indian nurses last year).

China will maintain her superiority but will not be a super power like US in fact we will have many power centers round the globe.