Ok, back to the discussion without going around in circles:
We have the PA facts about what happened - NATO will not accept that it acted 'deliberately', but it will try and provide a 'face saving' explanation for both sides.
An apology, at this point, is likely, and it appears the GoP is willing to return to 'normal' if given an apology.
Comments?
AM, that statement of yours, your usage of
"will"... since you have been asking everyone how they are sure that things are not the same as stated solely by the ISPR, may I ask you, how come you are so darn sure that the NATO will not accept it as its deliberate act?
How are you so sure that the explanation provided by NATO is going to be a "face saving" exercise, and not the truth, or somewhere inbetween? Your usage of that term, face saving, goes on to show that you have wholeheartedly bought the self-constructed idea that NATO forces came out with the sole purpose of pounding that post and killing those soldiers.
If so, kindly tell us what purpose of NATO, this act serves? What is the motive behind this preplanned deliberate act?
From all that happened, what I notice is that it (the operation) has gone to act against the convenience of the NATO - in the most expected way you can see - blockade of supplies, closure of Shamsi, boycotting Bonn, threats to sever ties etc. So why would NATO deliberately axe its own leg (as we say it in Hindi). It is something even a cognitively challenged NATO soldier could guess. So, if it was preplanned, why did they do it?
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After you are done with my aforementioned rant, please consider this:
I remember it happened. Was 2008/2009 - that I do not remember well. It was in the same area, as those posts. NATO forces had committed a similar mistake. About a dozen (perhaps a little less, 9-10) Pakistani soldiers died. Barely any news media covered it. Result - no public outrage. No blocking of NATO supplies. No statements by ISPR. Business as usual.
I will have to look for it online, but for now, you have to take my word - I remember reading about it, and I am sure that is not the only time such a mistake happened, as it is bound to happen frequently in every single war.
Now I want you to look at it from my point of view - The PA will take the pounding, as long as it is in its own interests, as long as it does not come out in the media.
So what happens when it comes out in the media? - Spreading of such news among the population can infuriate the people against the Army. The Army too needs the public support to stay in power, even more so in this modern world driven on the engines of quick and affordable communication systems.
If people see the Army as weak, it will lose its charisma, its power. So, when people are enraged, to pacify them, to feed them the proofs of its power, the Army acts. Since the Army does not want to act against its own interests, it will mostly act in harmless ways and we will see statements (like the ones we saw coming from the ISPR) and cosmetic changes (temporary blockade of supplies, closure of already dormant Shamsi airbase, waiting for apologies etc.), and that is all that will happen.
The fact is, Pakistan, and Pakistani Army, both have more to gain with the presence of NATO forces in Afghanistan. Blockade of supply lines through Pakistan is putting more pressure on the US, but a quick flight of the NATO from Afghanistan will help TTP and the likes to consolidate quickly, and stretch the PA way beyond it is at the moment.
So, about this reaction of the PA - Apart from simply pacifying the public by showing such outrage through ISPR, what other purpose would it serve for the PA to block supply lines and sever its ties with the US?