Pied Piper
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Partially agree with your analysis, the Indians will be encouraged to take some form of action - i dont think they will take it to the next level ..as it can quickly escalate to the strategic level (launch of nuclear weapons).
The recent border air/land skirmishes had given the indians a big shock as they had not anticipated this quick and sharp response from Pakistan. The BJP /Modi government main aim is to get re-elected again,they have a lot of serious political issues to resolve , such as job employment , economy etc. Hence the use of border skirmishes to deflect Indian attention from the real issues (such as reducing poverty) etc.
The Western powers have tried for many years to destroy pakistan like it has done with Iraq, Libya, Syria etc. But with Pakistans nuclear and delivery capability this has become too difficult for them to tackle . Look at the case of North Korea, it has an estimated 12-20 nuclear bombs and this has deterred the USA and South Korea to launch any form of real attack on North Korea.
pakistan's has a very large and growing nuclear capability (Full spectrum deterrence). It has a TRIAD system of delivery, the ability to launch nuclear weapons by Air, Land and Sea. It also has a MIRVED capability with its Ababeel missiles, which is able to penetrate any BMD system in place.
More importantly, most of the USA negative approach is via the Indian lobby and the Zionist lobbies - who have India and Israel's interests. Pakistan has the capabilities to put India and Israel back to the stone age....and Indians/Israelis know this. Pakistan should via its intelligence agencies should make it sure that the Indians/ Israelis are aware of Pakistans 'Samson Option', i.e if we go down we are taking you all down with us (stone age or worst). This psychological warfare needs to be enforced via a number of tools at pakistans disposal.
4 X submarines with SLBM / SLCM Nuclear capability is enough to deter the ' big platers' - deterrence!
As soon as Pakistan can demonstrate a long range strike capability to any country across the world, such as the British Royal Navy's capability to strike any target such as Russia with maximum devastation.
Pakistan needs to busy in all area of preparedness... I.e prepare for war to ensure their is peace.
india currently has a number of serious issues that hinder its ability to defeat Pakistan at this current stage:
Its logistics are lacking
It does not have enough ammunition for prolong conflict
Its Army and Airforce do not have the force ratio to overpower pakistan (mainly 2:1)
Only its Navy has a 4:1 ratio against the Pakistani Navy - but it has serious weaknesses (such as PN ability to easily detect their submarine). IN will also face a more lethal PN (with its array of weapons such as the aircraft carrier killer missile etc).
In a nut shell, Pakistan needs to maintain its vigilance and guard until the elections finish - then there will be room for negotiations between both governments. Reader when India was shocked with Pakistans bold counter strike - the Indians had a moment of madness when they had contemplated in the use if ballistic /cruise missile attacks, only yo be reminded by Pakistan that it will hit back 3 times more - the Indians ' blinked' and then their was easment ..its Brinkmanship?
