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A war with China in 2025 would be bloody and unwinnable

A war with China in 2025 would be bloody and unwinnable
2016-8
A top defense strategy think tank recently released a report hat looks at the implications of a possible war between the US and China.

The news is almost universally bad, but the assessment of a full-scale war between the US and China in 2025 paints a dire picture of the aftermath of a conflict between the world’s two biggest superpowers.

While a war today would be costly for the US, China’s increasing anti-access, area denial arsenal as well as its growing carrier capability and aircraft strength could make it impossible for the US to establish military dominance and achieve a decisive victory in 2025, the report by the RAND Corporation says.

“Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely, but the danger that a mishandled crisis could trigger hostilities cannot be ignored,” RAND says. “Technological advances in the ability to target opposing forces are creating conditions of conventional counterforce, whereby each side has the means to strike and degrade the other’s forces and, therefore, an incentive to do so promptly, if not first.”

Instead, the two sides would fight until its home populations got fed up and demanded an end to hostilities, something that may not happen until the body counts get too high to stomach.

RAND declined to state a number of expected casualties in any potential war, but it estimated the loss of multiple carriers and other capital platforms for each side. Nimitz-class carriers carry approximately 6,000 sailors and Marines on a cruise. The loss of a single ship would represent a greater loss of life and combat power than all losses in the Iraq War.

The study predicts a stunning display of technological might on both sides, which isn’t surprising considering what each country has in the field and in the works. The paper doesn’t name specific weapon systems, but it predicts that fifth-generation fighters will be able to shoot down fourth-generation fighters with near impunity.

The US recently fielded its second fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II. America’s other advanced fighter, the F-22 Raptor, has been in service since 2005. China is developing four fifth-generation fighters — the J-20; the J-32; the J-23; and the J-25.

The J-20 and J-32 will likely be in the field in 2025 and would potentially rival America’s fighters.

By 2025, China could have two more aircraft carriers for a total of three. It currently owns one functional carrier purchased from Russia and is manufacturing a second.

Despite America’s greater numbers of both fifth-generation fighters and total aircraft carriers, China’s growing missile arsenal would force America to act cautiously or risk unsustainable losses, RAND argues.

Outside of the conventional war, cyber attacks, anti-satellite warfare, and trade disruptions would hurt both countries.

Both belligerents have anti-satellite weapons that are nearly invulnerable to attack, meaning that both countries will be able to destroy a substantial portion of each other’s satellites. The destruction of the American satellite constellation would be especially problematic for the rest of the world since nearly all GPS units connect to American satellites.

Cyber attacks would cripple vulnerable grids on both sides of the Pacific, likely including many of the computer servers that maintain public utilities and crucial services like hospitals.

Trade disruptions would damage both countries, but China would be affected to a much greater extent, RAND says.

A lot of American commerce passes through the Pacific, but China does a whopping 95 percent of its trade there and is more reliant on trade than the US. For China, any large Pacific conflict would be very expensive at home.

While it’s very unlikely that China could win a war with the US, RAND says the fighting would be so bloody and costly for both sides that even average Americans would suffer greatly. Service members and their families would have it the worst.

“By 2025, US losses could range from significant to heavy; Chinese losses, while still very heavy, could be somewhat less than in 2015, owing to increased degradation of US strike capabilities,” RAND says. “China’s [anti-access weapons] will make it increasingly difficult for the US to gain military-operational dominance and victory, even in a long war.”

There are two pieces of good news. First, leaders on both sides are hesitant to go to war. Even better, RAND’s assessment says that neither country is likely to risk nuclear retaliation by firing first, so the war would likely remain a conventional affair.

The bad news is that increasing tension could trigger an accidental war despite political leaders best intentions. RAND recommends that leaders set clear limits on military actions in the Pacific and establish open lines of dialogue.

The American and Chinese military do participate in some exercises together. The Chinese hospital ship Peace Ark and the Chinese frigate Hengshui took part in the Rim of the Pacific exercise, but continued Chinese espionage against America and reported cyber attacks prevent a happy relationship.

Hopefully the US and China can come to friendly terms because a war tomorrow would be catastrophic and a war in 10 years could be crippling for everyone involved.
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-war-2025-bloody-unwinnable-2016-8

According to the report, until 2025, China still depends on the coastal missiles for Anti Access.
Someone said wrong things about the war.

War is losses, damages ... so several shotdown aircrafts, some sunken aircraft carriers are predictable.
But who reach the purpose is the winner. The full scale conventional war would be more lethal.

The Korean war was more bloody, despite the poor armament.

Vietnam didn't consider their advancing to Cambodia as invasion.
If you consider that an ongoing invasion, you are wrong. Actually, Vietnam occupied and protected entire of Cambodia territory from Khmer Rouge as early as 1980-1981.
After 1981, or 1982-1988 Khmer Rouge operates in Thailand territory as Thailand was requested by China and USA to accommodate Khmer Rouge after they were swept out of Cambodia
Khmer Rouge sometimes reenter Cambodia territory for raids. That causes the counter strikes and clashes in Thai territory. Thailand should feel sorry about their accommodation giving to Khmer Rouge, as nowaday the whole world opposed Khmer Rouge.

The facts tell us that, "de facto invasion stopped in 1982" is totally meaningless.
In the point of view from nowaday Cambodia govt, they also don't call that an invasion, but liberation from Khmer Rouge regime.
I don't know where my Turk friend get his idea from.
How are you?

De Facto invasion stopped as early as 1982 and Chinese invasion had a huge impact on this. De jure invasion stopped in 1990.

After Sino-Soviet split main Soviet hypothesis was, China would eventually fail as a state since it was very vulnerable without Soviet help. However China proved that not only it can function on it's own, it can also cross Soviet Union when their interest conflicts. During the invasion bulk of the Chinese army was waiting in the Soviet border, not invading Vietnam. Clearly the message was to Soviets and it was well received. Soviets not only failed to protect their ally Vietnam but also couldn't stop China from invading it.

So China's aim was humiliate Soviets and it did that.

But as I've said in my previous message, Soviets and China had a lot of positive implications to politics. It's a sad part of history seeing them fight eachother.

Secondly, until 1990 China made a series of border clashes with Vietnam. Gained territories from that clashes. Even gained territory from the so called "failed" invasion.

Thirdly; while China was enjoying integration to World economics and trade, Vietnam was isolated from the entire World until 1990 and had even less allies then today's North Korea. Only Soviets were looking after them economically. But it was a huge burden. An entire country was at a point of economic starvation and Soviet Union was the only caregiver. Of course this resulted a lot of complaints from Soviet officials.

Also China protected Chinese minority (Hoa people) in Vietnam. Hoa people lived hell because of Vietnamese regime. They would live a lot worse if China hadn't invaded. When China opened it's border to accept Hoa people, cunning Vietnamese government started to attack Hoa people and triggered an ethnic cleansing.

I don't see a failed China in that conflict. The entire event resulted in larger control of China in SCS, Vietnamese economic development is crippled and isolated from the World, Hoa people are 6th largest minority group in Vietnam and they still exist in there, Soviet Union no longer exist, China gained territory from Vietnamese border, Thailand and Cambodia has very good relations with China and they are thankful for what China did.

You decide who win.
 
I have said it many times before...the monentum of Life is with China. The Toa is with China. Only those with wisdom can truly understand this Fact.

@Kiss_of_the_Dragon @beijingwalker @Chinese-Dragon @TaiShang @T-Rex friends instead of reacting to these Pschyological Warefare articles and reports...why do not you come up with scenarios in which this wishful attack on China can happen.

The scenario in which this wishful attack on China can be happen is when China become gradually weak like during Chin Dynasty that will give US to harmlessly attack China but when China is strong, everyone is trying to avoid the collision course. In 2025 China will be capable to bring war to US's homeland by placing weapons on space directly over US head, this will nullify US advantage to have such bases in Asia and used proxies like India or JP.
 
@William Hung

I really don't have time to go on this. You don't even properly read and process what I've written and go on telling same things over and over again. Go on and believe Your alternative history.

You think wikipedia links not good enough for you? Bring some books or high quality publications to falsify them. Hack even go the extra mile and make corrections on wikipedia so that mortals like us can access true information.
 
aren't we all forgetting the next gen of warfare? proxys.

This is what I think would happen if US and China are enrage to each other. Whoever win the battle, it is the Philippine, Vietnam, and Japan who will suffer. Because that's the only way they prevent a nuclear war. They will choose these three countries as the proxy, the meat shield.

So let see how the war will happen. This is just the example

China strike Vietnam, US will come to defend Vietnam. Vietnam will become the battlefield. But China and US will still continue their trade relation. The likely scenario is, because Viets are fierce, China will retreat. US got prestige because they can defend the Viets, China get humiliated because they lose, but Vietnam will flattened to the land. Because the battle will happen in their land.

Well, it's bad for China, but worst to Vietnam. Do you like the result, my Vietnamese Friends? Do you want the war soo much? This the fate of Vietnam people here, not an empty pride.
 
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De Facto invasion stopped as early as 1982 and Chinese invasion had a huge impact on this. De jure invasion stopped in 1990.

After Sino-Soviet split main Soviet hypothesis was, China would eventually fail as a state since it was very vulnerable without Soviet help. However China proved that not only it can function on it's own, it can also cross Soviet Union when their interest conflicts. During the invasion bulk of the Chinese army was waiting in the Soviet border, not invading Vietnam. Clearly the message was to Soviets and it was well received. Soviets not only failed to protect their ally Vietnam but also couldn't stop China from invading it.

So China's aim was humiliate Soviets and it did that.

But as I've said in my previous message, Soviets and China had a lot of positive implications to politics. It's a sad part of history seeing them fight eachother.

Secondly, until 1990 China made a series of border clashes with Vietnam. Gained territories from that clashes. Even gained territory from the so called "failed" invasion.

Thirdly; while China was enjoying integration to World economics and trade, Vietnam was isolated from the entire World until 1990 and had even less allies then today's North Korea. Only Soviets were looking after them economically. But it was a huge burden. An entire country was at a point of economic starvation and Soviet Union was the only caregiver. Of course this resulted a lot of complaints from Soviet officials.

Also China protected Chinese minority (Hoa people) in Vietnam. Hoa people lived hell because of Vietnamese regime. They would live a lot worse if China hadn't invaded. When China opened it's border to accept Hoa people, cunning Vietnamese government started to attack Hoa people and triggered an ethnic cleansing.

I don't see a failed China in that conflict. The entire event resulted in larger control of China in SCS, Vietnamese economic development is crippled and isolated from the World, Hoa people are 6th largest minority group in Vietnam and they still exist in there, Soviet Union no longer exist, China gained territory from Vietnamese border, Thailand and Cambodia has very good relations with China and they are thankful for what China did.

You decide who win.

Man you know more China than me, one thing I would like to add it's by slapping Vietnam in 1979 has indirectly earned western trust and opened up more for China and consequently this has made China a second economy power of the world as today...which it's not bad at all:lol:

Again, China had to withdraw within weeks and Vietnam didn’t even have to withdraw its main force from Cambodia to contront China up north, it only needed to use local militia and local troops to inflict thousands of death on the PLA. VN didn’t even needed its main troops from Cambodia, so what makes you think it needed Soviet troops or intervention? If anything, the message was that China tried to test the Soviet-VN, got a bloody nose, then ran away. Then you are now trying to say its a humiliation for the Soviet but not for China?

After giving Vietnam a bloody noise, Deng flown to US for rodeo shown, what's China humiliation you're talking :lol:. And for Soviet, when they couldn't come to rescue Vietnam, this has sent a strong message all Warsaw pack allies that Soviet was not a serious as communist leader and when these eastern European countries saw China economy was booming, this has gave them great envy to tilt toward the west...and you know the rest of the story.

e643c07555ab45e98313e1546a4fa163.jpg
 
China is the king of twisting the history.
PLA suffered a bloody nose and must retreat after less than 1 month,
vietnam pull back from Cambodia after 10 years.

China spent several years to create a Pol Pot who was swept from Phnompeng by Vietnam after 1 week.
Vietnam gifted Cambodia a new govt. that lasts until today.

Without Vietnam, King Sihanouk cant return to power.
 
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China is the king of twisting the history.

China gave Cambodia a Pol Pot.
Vietnam gave Cambodia a Hun Sen.

This is not true. It's not Pol-Pot that China see / respected. It was the Cambodian king himself, King Norodom Sihanouk of Cambodia that considered as China's friend. Pol-Pot was only influence his faction, but Norodom Sihanouk influence all Cambodia people, as he was their king; their head of state.

You should seek Norodom Sihanouk's book. He wrote about what he saw in China. His close relationship with the CCP high command; including Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, etc are the proof that it is him that China respected, not Pol-Pot.
 
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@William Hung

I really don't have time to go on this. You don't even properly read and process what I've written and go on telling same things over and over again. Go on and believe Your alternative history.

You think wikipedia links not good enough for you? Bring some books or high quality publications to falsify them. Hack even go the extra mile and make corrections on wikipedia so that mortals like us can access true information.

I must admit, no matter what your views, you’re always polite and I haven’t seen you troll. However, you have made some very bold claims, even some serious abhorent allegation such as an ethnic cleansing in Vietnam, which you still cannot provide any credible sources for that claim. The wikipedia quotes you provided didn’t even mention it. I even doubt any Chinese official source went as far as claiming an ethnic cleansing in Vietnam.

No, wikipedia links aren’t good enough. It doesn’t necessarily mean your quotes are wrong, and it could be that itself had quoted from credible source, but it is commonly accepted that wikipedia articles in general can be questionable due to its open policy for editing and you would need to provide other credible sources.

And finally, I have previously provided plenty of academic sources for this Sino-Viet war debate, it is still there in my post history, you’re not the first person to argue about it. Also, you have been the one who have made claims (ethnic cleansing, 1979 caused VN to withdraw, etc.) so the onus is on you to provide your sources. Posting quotes from wikipedia and think you have made your case is inadequate. We can end the debate here, but dont try to spin things around.
 
China is the king of twisting the history.
PLA suffered a bloody nose and must retreat after less than 1 month,
vietnam pull back from Cambodia after 10 years.

China spent several years to create a Pol Pot who was swept from Phnompeng by Vietnam after 1 week.
Vietnam gifted Cambodia a new govt. that lasts until today.

Without Vietnam, King Sihanouk cant return to power.

This is also wrong. After the invasion of Vietnam, Sihanouk lead a Cambodian resistant faction to kick Vietnam out of Cambodia. His faction was called FUNCIPEC. Also he joined force with Khmer Rouge; Khmer People National Liberation Front (KPNLF). So basically, Vietnam wasn't save Cambodian people. They occupy the country. You are the aggressor, not their savior. And they hate you to an extent that FUNCIPEC, KPNLF, and rouge united to fight for their independent.
 
This is why the U.S will not wait until 2025 to confront China. By that time, China will be too strong for the U.S. War will happen before 2025 even if China do not want to fight the U.S, the U.S will force China into attacking the U.S so the U.S can obliterate China. The U.S have already baited China 5 times but China is just too afraid and back down. China will be in the same situation like the Japanese prior to Pearl Harbor even if China does not want to. China will be eradicated from the Spratlys, Paracels, Scarborough, and even Hainan island. The U.S will proceed this war full scale so China won't have a chance and return to make trouble in SCS.
 
Man you know more China than me, one thing I would like to add it's by slapping Vietnam in 1979 has indirectly earned western trust and opened up more for China and consequently this has made China a second economy power of the world as today...which it's not bad at all:lol:



After giving Vietnam a bloody noise, Deng flown to US for rodeo shown, what's China humiliation you're talking :lol:. And for Soviet, when they couldn't come to rescue Vietnam, this has sent a strong message all Warsaw pack allies that Soviet was not a serious as communist leader and when these eastern European countries saw China economy was booming, this has gave them great envy to tilt toward the west...and you know the rest of the story.

e643c07555ab45e98313e1546a4fa163.jpg

Don’t you mean, China became a turncoat, tried to test the Soviet-Vietnam, got a bloody nose, and became a lackey to the US/west. Look at these photos, CCP leaders picking up food for the leaders from the US/west. It is disgraceful, a true display of being a lackey. I dont think you will ever find pictures of leaders from Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, etc. picking up food for these folks.

premier-chang-chun-chiao-P.jpeg



Zhou%20Enlai%20Henry%20Kissinger.jpg



deng-ford-chopsticks-544x400.jpg


deng-xiaoping-the-vice-prime-minister-of-china-shows-the-french-prime-picture-id105220555
 
This is why the U.S will not wait until 2025 to confront China. By that time, China will be too strong for the U.S. War will happen before 2025 even if China do not want to fight the U.S, the U.S will force China into attacking the U.S so the U.S can obliterate China. The U.S have already baited China 5 times but China is just too afraid and back down. China will be in the same situation like the Japanese prior to Pearl Harbor even if China does not want to. China will be eradicated from the Spratlys, Paracels, Scarborough, and even Hainan island. The U.S will proceed this war full scale so China won't have a chance and return to make trouble in SCS. The U.S will make its allies Japan, Korea, Australia, Phillipines to join this war even if they don't want to; they still hold a stake in this conflict
 

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