A top Chinese official was arrested after talking about the biggest threat to China's economy

[Aepsilons]

From what Vietnamese members said, you can see how distorted their historical view is. When realizing this, can you seriously believe what they said about South China Sea history? Vietnam is doomed.

Ive befriended a great many Vietnamese patriots before many in academic setting, as well as some in online platforms. My experience teaches me that true Vietnamese patriots (those who wish for the growth and prosperity of their Motherland, the great Viet Nam, wish Viet Nam to maintain a pragmatist position) are never closed minded in regards to politic. Viet Nam , like a true student scholar in the school of Confucianism, listens and heeds to various masters and taps into various ideologies that ultimately will help transform the Vietnamese nation state and Vietnamese personification processes. Take into consideration Marxist principles, Lenin's communist manifesto, then some CPC policy planning systems, Japanese infrastructure style of optimization, and recently even American politic. Notice that Viet Nam never fully sides or consumes a particular lit, rather, tastes each and every single ideology with national harmonization in mind. I suppose one can even draw conclusion that in a way Viet Nam is even similar to that of the CPC-led China , which has adopted not only Lenin-Mao communist thought, Marxist socialist principles, and western-espoused capitalism, in the formulation of the unique modern Chinese nation state personification processes.

There are various types of Vietnamese patriots, those who are Confucian minded such as @Cao Đài @liubang , those who are moderate (wanting strong relations with China, yet also a strong nation state identity) such as @Viet @Carlosa and @dichoi . Then there are strong nation-specific patriots with preliminary fears of domination by the northern Dragon, yet their views are solid and should be considered in eloquent discussion and these are brilliant minds of @Soryu @William Hung , then there are the hegemonist-minded patriots such as @Viva_Viet @NiceGuy who dream of a 'Great Viet Nam' or 'Greater Submekong Empire of Viet Nam'.

With that in mind, we need to draw conclusion that there are various patriots and minds of Viet Nam. Never should we gneralize Vietnamese patriots as one type. There are a great many of them, of a nation of over 100 million. Let us be sensitive to this multichotomy of minds. Lest we offend those who we do not mean to.


Regards,
Dr. Kenji W, PH.D.
"@Nihonjin1051"

 

[rcrmj]

hot money is a double edged sword, it injects cash flow to enrich capital market when an economy is speculated to a good return, but it will drain the capital market when they do not see a quick return in short period of time, which will cause collateral damage to genuine and long term projects..

as far as I know during the period of 2008-2015 there are trillions of foreign hot money being poured in China's real estate, manufacturing hubs, stocks and P2P money markets (of course facilitated by corrupted officials to great extent), but with looming prospect of global economy and slowing industrial out put, which increases the risks and uncertainty of the speculations, hence, by the nature of it, they are trying to pull out the money ``

so it seems that the government is facing a fierce battle again (the epic 1998 HK stock market battle) with international speculation and institutional funds, like Soros' Quantum funds,

This is mostly not about economics. This is result of an information warfare between US and China. Economics is just a frontier in this information warfare.

I'm sorry to say that but so far China is not doing good in that war.

Chinese businessmen should invest in English language media. I mean let's have a look at RT and Sputnik. They are far from being perfect. However still many people from the West actually reads them.

Alexa global rank of RT.com = 404, 17.6% of the traffic comes from Russia the rest comes from other countries
Alexa global rank of sputniknews.com = 1242, Russian traffic is not in top 5 countries. Less then 5% comes from Russia.

Russians learned about the importance of the media. Resulting from that European public learns more about the Russian perspective about global issues day by day. They also get more objective information about the Russian economy and Russian internal problems.

At least Western public deserves to know that a football match brawl in Russia is not a civil uprising. (I remember such a case but couldn't find a source. If you guys could find it, it would be much appreciated)

If we talk about China, other than Chinadaily, which is not much successfull to be honest, there is not much Chinese English language based news source that is read by international audience.

Alexa global rank of chinadaily.com.cn = 116, seems good but 88.4% of the traffic comes from China which has no point.
Alexa global rank of xinhuanet.com = 71, great but still 98.5% of the traffic comes from China which has again no point.

Thus China does not have any English based news source that is followed by the Western public. That's why every nonsense report about China doomsday scenario goes off unreplied, and panic increases, hence the capital outflow.

CCTV is really lousy at manipulating people's mind, soft power relies on one's mouth not wishful thinking...

 

[Kyle Sun]

Our economy is ok as long as you guys keep posting thread of China eco or RMB.

 

[mirage]

RMB will no doubt go down, that's necessarily for China to adjust their own financial flow from an export orientated to domestic consumption, another problem associated with Chinese Economy is that they need to transform from Secondary Industry (manufacturing) to Tertiary industry (financial) and that would require a large buyback of RMB for domestic circulation, otherwise they would have to depreciate the RMB by printing more.

Another factor affecting the general economic trend is the Population, while it favor large population with industrial driven economy, it will turn population from being an asset into liability when China changing toward a financial driven economy, which would include a downsizing of work force in general and increase government spending. Having a big population does not mean they would all be working in White collar job and with factory start shutting down, those worker are either out of work (unemployed) or have to retrain, both of which will draw national resource into and a big chunk of Chinese GDP will goes toward these programs.

When you have 1.4 billion people, it's quite hard to "Trim" the work force and the government would need to have some spare cash set aside to deal with these type of problem. Which would also strain the demand of cash

sir kindly throw some light on how to transform an export oriented economy into a domestic consumption economy in an environment which is not favorable both on domestic and foreign grounds , and conservative time frame for that transition if it is possible under current circumstances . thanks

 

[Aepsilons]

sir kindly throw some light on how to transform an export oriented economy into a domestic consumption economy in an environment which is not favorable both on domestic and foreign grounds , and conservative time frame for that transition if it is possible under current circumstances . thanks

This is why quantitative easing becomes a necessity. Anyways, the issue with China is that they can solve their economic situation by merely tapping into their enormous domestic market. I mean, look for example GM; they have had more motor sales in China than in the entire US market, alone. The same goes for Toyota's sales in China. Tho Japanese companies have not captured "majority" of Chinese auto buyers, even capturing 5%, 7% of the market equates to multi-billion profits for brands such as Toyota, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Nissan, Subaru et al.

Let's also remember that the Chinese middle class is more numerous than the entire US population. So, let's also be frank and direct in this entire appraisal, my friend.

Don't buy into 'China collapse rhetoric'. It simply is not true. You as an Indian should know this, considering the false foreign media propaganda that lambasted Indian economy before.And notice how resilient India's economy remained, now growing at a steady 7-8%.



Regards.

 

[jhungary]

sir kindly throw some light on how to transform an export oriented economy into a domestic consumption economy in an environment which is not favorable both on domestic and foreign grounds , and conservative time frame for that transition if it is possible under current circumstances . thanks

This is actually quite a complex question. And I am not being any type of professional economist (The best I have is 600 level Economic Subject from my postgrad)

Anyway, in short.

An export driven economy is basically based on a model where you make goods and earn foreign money, well, that's how you export goods, hence there will be an influx of foreign currency as you use your own resources to make goods. While doing so, the country you export to would want to pay as much your own currency as possible to pay for the goods they buy, so that they would be protected against currency hedging (In short, to protect them from the currency rate getting lower, hence they would have to pay more) That would mean, in China case, a lot of RMB would be in Foreign hand, simply because country like the US or UK or Australia or even India, buying Chinese goods want to pay RMB for the above reason would have to stock them up first, and hence the demand of RMB overseas are higher.

Now, an domestic driven economy by either satisfying local market or importing would means you need to reverse what you do, as you would need to have enough money to go around to your local population so they can go up to the market and buy stuff with, which means the internal flow of RMB would increase, and while you cannot logically increase the internal flow of your currency while maintaining a high foreign demand without altering the balance, quite literally, something gotta give.

Now, for China to move away from export driven economy into a more self sufficient domestic market, currency wise, they would need to ensure enough circulation domestically, which mean they either print more money which will depreciate their own currency, or buy back some or most of the RMB currently floating or holding in foreign country or company. To do that, either the Chinese attract overseas investor to invest in Chinese financial market, thus pumping RMB back into Chinese bank, or they will have to release their Forex to exchange them with RMB other country holding.

While the first option is the only good way China can do it, but the problem is, China have an interference policy on their financial market. So basically investor was not guarantee with their investment returns especially on margin, short selling and hedging. Which simply because Chinese government would intervene and so that no such thing can be done. And while RMB being added into the IMF basket currency, RMB is still not free-tradable. And what that will do is discourage investor to invest in financial market.

The other way is to lose the forex and gain RMB, which will not create a problem in a short run, but since the forex is down, and there are not much to guarantee the value of RMB, hence expose RMB for future hedging risk. The US is the only country that can lose Forex and be risk safe, simply because USD is the international reserve currency...

As for how long it will takes to get it done? Don't know, how long does it take for you to think you want to invest in RMB??

 

[mirage]

This is why quantitative easing becomes a necessity. Anyways, the issue with China is that they can solve their economic situation by merely tapping into their enormous domestic market. I mean, look for example GM; they have had more motor sales in China than in the entire US market, alone. The same goes for Toyota's sales in China. Tho Japanese companies have not captured "majority" of Chinese auto buyers, even capturing 5%, 7% of the market equates to multi-billion profits for brands such as Toyota, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Nissan, Subaru et al.

Let's also remember that the Chinese middle class is more numerous than the entire US population. So, let's also be frank and direct in this entire appraisal, my friend.

Don't buy into 'China collapse rhetoric'. It simply is not true. You as an Indian should know this, considering the false foreign media propaganda that lambasted Indian economy before.And notice how resilient India's economy remained, now growing at a steady 7-8%.



Regards.

but i never said anything on collapse or something like that . i just asked the probable time period and how transition will be done as it is easier said than done under prevalent circumstances

 

[Aepsilons]

but i never said anything on collapse or something like that . i just asked the probable time period and how transition will be done as it is easier said than done under prevalent circumstances

China is merely transitioning from developing nation to early-developed nation status. Their sovereign wealth index indicates that, the quantitative easing is done not so much in regards to augment chinese exports, but more so to encourage domestic consumption.

but i never said anything on collapse or something like that . i just asked the probable time period and how transition will be done as it is easier said than done under prevalent circumstances

Time period? This is a gradual transition period where China has now entered early-developed status , for her to become moderate-developed status? Probably anywhere between 1- 1.5 decades time.

 

[mirage]

This is actually quite a complex question. And I am not being any type of professional economist (The best I have is 600 level Economic Subject from my postgrad)

Anyway, in short.

An export driven economy is basically based on a model where you make goods and earn foreign money, well, that's how you export goods, hence there will be an influx of foreign currency as you use your own resources to make goods. While doing so, the country you export to would want to pay as much your own currency as possible to pay for the goods they buy, so that they would be protected against currency hedging (In short, to protect them from the currency rate getting lower, hence they would have to pay more) That would mean, in China case, a lot of RMB would be in Foreign hand, simply because country like the US or UK or Australia or even India, buying Chinese goods want to pay RMB for the above reason would have to stock them up first, and hence the demand of RMB overseas are higher.

Now, an domestic driven economy by either satisfying local market or importing would means you need to reverse what you do, as you would need to have enough money to go around to your local population so they can go up to the market and buy stuff with, which means the internal flow of RMB would increase, and while you cannot logically increase the internal flow of your currency while maintaining a high foreign demand without altering the balance, quite literally, something gotta give.

Now, for China to move away from export driven economy into a more self sufficient domestic market, currency wise, they would need to ensure enough circulation domestically, which mean they either print more money which will depreciate their own currency, or buy back some or most of the RMB currently floating or holding in foreign country or company. To do that, either the Chinese attract overseas investor to invest in Chinese financial market, thus pumping RMB back into Chinese bank, or they will have to release their Forex to exchange them with RMB other country holding.

While the first option is the only good way China can do it, but the problem is, China have an interference policy on their financial market. So basically investor was not guarantee with their investment returns especially on margin, short selling and hedging. Which simply because Chinese government would intervene and so that no such thing can be done. And while RMB being added into the IMF basket currency, RMB is still not free-tradable. And what that will do is discourage investor to invest in financial market.

The other way is to lose the forex and gain RMB, which will not create a problem in a short run, but since the forex is down, and there are not much to guarantee the value of RMB, hence expose RMB for future hedging risk. The US is the only country that can lose Forex and be risk safe, simply because USD is the international reserve currency...

so to sum up , it is not an easy transition as many unforeseen and unwarranted situations will be encountered and as far a i perceive , it will be more than a currency war and currency manipulation which every analyst foresee as there are no past precedents of such scale , as huge economy is trying to shift gears . gan xie nin de hui fu .

China is merely transitioning from developing nation to early-developed nation status. Their sovereign wealth index indicates that, the quantitative easing is done not so much in regards to augment chinese exports, but more so to encourage domestic consumption.



Time period? This is a gradual transition period where China has now entered early-developed status , for her to become moderate-developed status? Probably anywhere between 1- 1.5 decades time.

that i know , i was just asking that question to the chinese friends , what they perceive as perceptions may differ due to origin . anyways thanks for reply

 

[Aepsilons]

that i know , i was just asking that question to the chinese friends , what they perceive as perceptions may differ due to origin . anyways thanks for reply

Due to the animosity between Chinese posters and Indian posters here in PDF, we can understand some Chinese members' apprehension to answering Indian posters questions. There has been instances of both sides trolling the other here , so i suppose that precarious trepidation results from that. Tho i am not a Chinese, i know Chinese thinking fairly well -- they don't like to talk about negative issues (as for Japanese we are the same), and react to negative news about their country with ostentatious defense, as would any person.

Hopefully there will be better rapport between Indian and Chinese members here in PDF.

 

[帅的一匹]

Interesting. Why would Vietnam need China's full support? I doubt Vietnam wants to side with any side, me-thinks, probably retain strategic ambiguity. Yes?

I think there was a Vietnamese saying that goes: "when two waterbuffalo fight, only the rice paddies are destroyed"

Don't forget Vietnam is lead by communist party, we are comorade. Siding with China is very safe, cause we don't have any plot for Vietnam lands. The dispute in the South China Sea between both country could be controlled.

No need Russia navy to take control sub Mekong wt VN. In 1979, without navy support, Soviet successfully helped VN to take control of Laos-Cam.

Of course, VN-Russia control sub Mekong is the night mare for not only US,but JP too. But no one can stop that process now.

If Mr.Xi is as smart as chairman Mao, he must give full support to VN to kick US out of Malacca before too late for CN economy

We are willing to give Vietnam full support to kick those countries out that didn't belong to this region in the first beginning. We shall solve our problem first, develop SCS hand by hand in peace, cause we love Ho Chi Mingh as our father. If Vietnam continue to get close with USA, the western will utilize it to topple the communist party in Vietnam, same as color revolution in the east Europe.

 

[Aepsilons]

Don't forget Vietnam is lead by communist party, we are comorade. Siding with China is very safe, cause we don't have any plot for Vietnam lands. The dispute in the South China Sea between both country could be controlled.

Yes, exactly. Despite geopolitical direction, currently, in the end Viet Nam and China (PRC) are ideological brothers, as they are the two remaining communist nation states that are prospering in Asia (let us not consider North Korea, as it is not really communist, more so a hereditary dictatorship).

Viet Nam has maneuvered fairly well these past 3 decades. From one that was at odds with SEATO (members include Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines), United States, France, China, -- to one that is able to manipulate the environment for national growth. Fast forward to present and we see the following undeniable truths:

• Viet Nam is now a member of ASEAN, and has diplomatic and economic relationship with Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
• Viet Nam has a booming bilateral trade with China (PRC) that is north of $65 BILLION per year (larger than the economies of Cambodia, Laos, and Brunei combined).
  
• Viet Nam has diplomatic relationship with France
• Viet Nam has cooperative relationship with US

Viet Nam, like China, is not alien to the posture of re-aligning with old enemies. Who would think that Viet Nam had a war with China and America some 30, 40 years ago, respectively? When current relations are , despite maritime issues, is booming?

It seems to me that due to the interests of both parties (China and Viet Nam), there will be no war, rather, integration will continue as planned.

Either way, Viet Nam has to learn to live under the shadow of China. Afterall Viet Nam and China share a land border. China and Viet Nam cannot ignore each other, neither can they both afford to be at odds with each other.

If Vietnam continue to get close with USA, the western will utilize it to topple the communist party in Vietnam, same as color revolution in the east Europe.

Considering the West's resume and activity in Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, that is not an unwarranted claim !

 

[jhungary]

so to sum up , it is not an easy transition as many unforeseen and unwarranted situations will be encountered and as far a i perceive , it will be more than a currency war and currency manipulation which every analyst foresee as there are no past precedents of such scale , as huge economy is trying to shift gears . gan xie nin de hui fu .


that i know , i was just asking that question to the chinese friends , what they perceive as perceptions may differ due to origin . anyways thanks for reply

Well, as far as I see, China need to progress on 3 fronts before having enough buyer confidence so people would start investing in Chinese Financial Sector, instead of its established industrial sector.

1.) The Basic of Chinese Financial system needed to be shake up. The Financial Control (Like FCC in the US) is not bringing people much confident, and the stock market have been plagued with weak and non-performance stock which were still propped up by mostly the government, the true value of stock market is yet to be seen and that is what stopping people from investing in Chinese Financial Market.

2.) The Currency need to be stabilised. While Chinese bank were backed by the government, so theoretically, it's currency should be quite stable, but the truth is we saw 2 currency rebalance/revalue in just 6 months suggested otherwise. Investor simply cannot invest in a currency where the government would still need to readjust its value for short term, I mean you would not invest in a currency that it may worth less than half tomorrow, right? And it also have to do with the financial control system in China.

3.) Free Trade. Not free trade of goods (well, kind of as you can see currency as good as well) As all 4 Big Chinese bank were backed by the Central Bank in China, the currency is not actually free-tradable. As the country would have the final say on the sale, that would inhibit the will to buy from the buyer. What China need to do is to stop backing the private commercial bank, this way they would have a free hand on the economy, government controlled economy only good when it is running good. It lack the versatility and resilience to get back up when the economy hit rocks. And as long as government controlling the financial factor, investor would be sacrifice first to save Chinese Economy, and who would invest in this environment?

Added another question is that, China is still running on the gas industrialise brought to them, and you cannot run on that gas forever, sooner or later, they will lose their edge on being a manufacturer hubs, and if that happen, the only thing China can trade is their currency, it's sort of depending on which comes first, can China transform completely before the industrial sector ran out of steam? Or would it be still straggle when China inevitably lose steam? Cause that would spell disaster.

 

[帅的一匹]

There isn't much hate between China and Vietnam, all probity friend @Nihonjin1051 . Both Japanese right wing and Chinese hawk hate Yankees. They contained China and put a dog chain on Japan, I'm sorry to use the word dog chain. Japan's thinking goes like: utilize the Yankee to defeat China and concentrating on defeating USA and then rule the Asia. China's thinking goes like: kick USA out of Asia and defeat Japan( if Japan don't admit China is the boss and keep challenge China's position in Asia). Japan always plot China's land cause it lives on a barren land, and China always wanna defeat Japan to be the real boss of Asia. No matter how Japan government shows it's loyalty to USA, know what Abe sa haveinhis mind. We know each other like brothers. The most pathetic ending is that we both destruct each other and USA laugh in the end. Will you let this happen?

 

[Aepsilons]

The most pathetic ending is that we both destruct each other and USA laugh in the end. Will you let this happen?

Remember the term "Yellow Threat". I remember this term that my American professor used to describe America's policy in East Asia regarding containment process for Japan, Korea and China.

Remember this, my friend, America was ever "attacked", and severely "humiliated" in three particular wars:

1. Pacific WW2
2. Korean War
3. Viet Nam War

In all three instances -- the United States was placed in existential crisis. The first one , the United States was attacked , caught off guard in Pearl Harbor and was deliberately attacked by the Japanese Imperial Navy. East Asian. In the war with Japan, the United States was forced to fight and tasted the tenacity of East Asian opponent's will and wit , the Japanese's fanatical warrior spirit. Seen in the Banzai charges. Tho the war ended in Japan's defeat, the United States was forced to mobilize its largest naval mobilization (largest in world history) to defeat the Japanese Navy in the Battle of Leyte Gulf , and to retake the Philippines. America industrial complex was prioritized to help defeat Japanese threat.

In the second war , in the Korean War, the United States was forced to defend its newly won position in "Master" of Northeast Asia as it had occupied former Japanese territory of Korea. To preserve this domination brought by the ashes of the 2nd world war, America interevened to protect Seoul from Pyongyang and Communist threat of domino theory. It war that America had tasted China's PLA human wave tactics, during the battle of Pyongyang. Wave after wave of Chinese soldiers braving the enemy's fire to dislodge the American and UN forces from Chinese border, and forced them back to the 38th parallel line. I remember reading Korean war journals describing these Chinese "human wave" tactics as being reminiscent of Japanese Banzai charges in the 2nd world war. Again, East Asian Warrior Spirit.

Then fast forward to Viet Nam. Who would have thought that the Great American Super Power would be forced to abandon South Viet Nam, after a long fight against the Viet Namese, again, another East Asian entity.

America's greatest and existential wars with East Asia. There is this fear of East Asia and the so called "Yellow Threat". The West knows that it does not stand a chance against a unified, mobilized, integrated, coordinated Greater East Asian Region. No way in hell can they compete with it economically, industrially speaking, and militarily - population wise. So what can they do? The Superior East Asian (with his high IQ, high maturity, ingenuity, and collectivity) is the single most greatest threat to Western Domination. Even more than 'radical Islam' or 'terrorism'.

This is why they West , as an entity, invests on division for East Asia. Examine this , open mindedly.

However, what can we say, we cannot prevent fate. Heaven seems to have its way in these matters of ... eventuality.

Japan always plot China's land cause it lives on a barren land, and China always wanna defeat Japan to be the real boss of Asia. No matter how Japan government shows it's loyalty to USA, know what Abe sa haveinhis mind. We know each other like brothers. The most pathetic ending is that we both destruct each other and USA laugh in the end. Will you let this happen?

1. Japan will no longer have to "plot" due to the current integration between both Japan and China.
2. In the future , when East Asia is unified and united, there will no longer have to be an issue of land and breathing space. There shall be open borders among East Asian nation-integrated states. Take for example the issue with EU member states (provided, we will not have open borders for outside states, as they would be considered foreign entities to G.E.A {greater east asia}.
3. Japanese blood is similar to Chinese blood; Japanese and Chinese killing each other is like brother killing brother. Let us transcend from this unnecessary thinking -- which our enemies would wish upon us.