A deal on Kashmir is both easy and impossible

[Cheetah786]

http://imageshack.us

FEW years ago Bill Clinton called the Kashmir valley “the most dangerous place in the world”. Since then, no great change.

The war continues. Tortuous peace negotiations have been grinding on (and off) since 2003 between India and Pakistan, nuclear-armed neighbours contesting sovereignty of the divided territory. The best you can say at times is that a tedious and seemingly ineffectual search for peace beats no search at all.
According to a conservative tally by the Institute of Conflict Management, a Delhi think-tank, 1,116 people died in “terrorist violence” in Indian-administered Kashmir last year. That is not bloodshed on the scale of Iraq, or Afghanistan or Sri Lanka―or of Kashmir itself in a bad year, such as 2001, when 4,507 died. But it is a far cry from peace.

Hopes have risen and fallen often enough before. But still, just now, the peace process is entering, as it does from time to time, a potentially fertile stage.

At the weekend Pranab Mukherjee, India’s foreign minister, is off to Islamabad. The faltering dialogue between India and Pakistan is resuming.

It had come close to collapse in July after India accused Pakistan of involvement in a bombing of the Mumbai train network, killing almost 200.

The dialogue was rescued when Pakistan’s leader, Pervez Musharraf, and India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, met in Havana in September. They agreed on the need for a “joint mechanism” to combat terrorism—the diplomatic equivalent of talking to your neighbour even while you’re accusing him of blowing up your house.
Since then there have been back-channel talks in which, if the leaks are to be believed, the two sides have been exchanging ideas on a “solution” to the core dispute, over Kashmir.

A solution may not be as far away as is often assumed. As a leading opponent of Indian rule in Kashmir confessed in 2003, “everybody knows India has won.”

Put another way, everybody knows that a solution will look very much like the status quo. India will not pursue its claim to the parts of historic Kashmir controlled by Pakistan and China. In return, it will expect Pakistan to renounce its claim to the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir, including the 5m, mostly Muslim, population of the Kashmir Valley.

General Musharraf has come very close at times to accepting this, saying he is ready to look for a solution within the parameters Mr Singh has set, including no redrawing of boundaries.

The trick, both men say, is to make those boundaries irrelevant. This could be achieved by “softening” the borders, introducing some jointly-run institutions, and increasing “self-governance” (which General Musharraf, not a scholar of Greek, sees as somehow distinct from “autonomy”). In other words, Indian concessions would dress up the status quo in a new guise.

Seen like this, peace looks tantalisingly close. But there are at least three big obstacles.

First, some in Pakistan will go on wanting to fuel the insurgency, not for its chances of success, but because its continuation ties down half the Indian army at little cost to Pakistan.

Second, hawks in India seem more interested in dragging out the talks than in contemplating real concessions. As the separatist who conceded India’s victory put it, “there will be no dignified way out. It will be a humiliating way out.”

Third, that last politician’s weary cynicism reflects the alienation felt by many within the valley. Looking for peace in Islamabad is important. But it will only be found in Kashmir itself.

http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/asiaview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8513648

 

[Munir]

It would be nice if this finally could be solved. It would be possibel to transorm it into hub of economy and free trade... The hawks on both sides should be eradicated... Why killing more civilians and risking young soldiers?

 

[Neo]

It would be nice if this finally could be solved. It would be possibel to transorm it into hub of economy and free trade... The hawks on both sides should be eradicated... Why killing more civilians and risking young soldiers?

Exactly my thoughts!
The Kashmir issue has been abused and kept alive by both sides to help expand and modernise their armed forces but its time to finally move on!

 

[Bull]

We are already moving on,you can also join us.

 

[Neo]

We are already moving on,you can also join us.

Yes, you're moving on. On your terms only.

 

[Bull]

Yes, you're moving on. On your terms only.

See this is what happens, you can also move on on your terms.
India is happy to live with what its got.

 

[Neo]

See this is what happens, you can also move on on your terms.

Yes, we are!
Our terms put Kashmiri's interest first!

India is happy to live with what its got.

I would be too if I got the lions share.

 

[Bull]

Yes, we are!
Our terms put Kashmiri's interest first!

And our terms put our interests after kashmiris.

I would be too if I got the lions share.

We are the big brother let us take the lions share.

 

[EagleEyes]

And our terms put our interests after kashmiris.

It is understandable.

 

[dabong1]

Pakistan, India 'agree' On US-backed Kashmir Plan
15 May 2005
The Nation

Islamabad: Pakistan and India are engaged in serious discussion on American roadmap for Kashmir, prepared by US-based Kashmir Study Group, with official quarters here saying the South Asian nuclear rivals have agreed to strive for solution to the core issue in accordance with this plan. Farooq Kathwari, a Srinagar-born naturalized American furniture tycoon who heads the Kashmir Study Group (KSG), has made several visits to Islamabad and New Delhi in recent months to discuss his plan for Kashmir. The plan recommends soft Kashmir borders with free access between the two sides while leaving the Line of Control undisturbed. 'Kathwari, who has full support of the US Administration, has been in contact with President General Pervez Musharraf, Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri and the top Indian leaders discussing the plan. 'After the recently held hectic discussions India and Pakistan have agreed to implement the KSG plan in next two to three years,' a well-placed diplomatic source confided to The Nation here on Sunday. 'The plan proposes that India would continue to have overall control of Jammu, Kashmir valley and Ladakh whereas Pakistan would retain control of Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas,' he said. He said the three regions in India - Jammu, valley and Ladakh - as well as the two regions under Pakistan's control would coordinate issues such as internal trade and transportation. An all-Kashmir body would be set up to coordinate in areas of broader interest such as regional trade, tourism, environment, and water resources, according to the plan, he added. Pakistan and India would be responsible for defence and foreign affairs of each of these regions, which would maintain their own police forces. However, these entities would have their own democratic institutions, citizenship, flags and legislatures. He said the citizenship of the entities would entitle citizens to acquire Indian or Pakistani passports, or use entity passports subject to endorsement by India or Pakistan. 'Their borders with India and Pakistan would remain open for people, goods and services,' the plan said. About the LoC, it said the Line of Control would remain until India and Pakistan decided to alter it, but both countries would demilitarize the areas included in the entities. He said what the US-based Kashmiri business tycoon has proposed to the two sides was to continue with this arrangement for at least 10 years after 2007. After that the Kashmiris would be allowed to decide the final settlement that they deemed fit to the core issue, he added. According to official quarters, initially both the sides continued to stick to their stated positions and were reluctant to publicly endorse any plan that would be seen as a negation of their respective stances. However, the increased US interest in the plan, forwarded by Mr Kathwari, has resulted in convergence of views on the roadmap on the part of Islamabad and New Delhi. In coming months more Kashmir-specific CBMs such as troops reduction, meetings of divided Kashmiri families and release of detained Kashmiris would be announced, they added. They said apart from this more road links would be established between Indian Held Kashmir and Azad Kashmir. Moreover, development projects would be initiated on both sides of the LoC by multinational firms with focus on tourism industry, they added. Farooq Kathwari formed Kashmir Study Group in 1996 and it comprises former senior officials of the US State Department and academics.

 

[dabong1]

The Andorra model

In 1998, a Kashmiri American businessman assembled a group of western policymakers and academics to set up the Kashmir Study Group. The group soon published a set of possible resolutions, including an innovative arrangement on the pattern of Andorra, the tiny state which lies on the borders of France and Spain.

It involved the reconstitution of part of Jammu and Kashmir as a sovereign entity, in the same way as Andorra, with free access to and from both of its larger neighbours. The part of the state which was to be reconstituted would be determined through an internationally supervised agreement involving the Kashmiri people, India and Pakistan.

The resulting entity would have its own secular, democratic constitution; distinct citizenship; a flag; and a legislature which would pass laws on all matters other than defence and foreign affairs.

The proposal relies on India and Pakistan overseeing the defence of the Kashmiri entity, and jointly working out its funding.

There would be no change in the present line of control, but the whole entity would become a demilitarised zone.

The plan does not try to avoid a particularly important question which has dogged the Kashmir dispute: the politics of ego and prestige attached to the claim on the area. Any real solution to the Kashmir problem would have to be immune to the suggestion that it amounted to a defeat for either of the warring neighbours.

Involving as it does no movement of borders, the Andorra proposal has at least the potential to secure both sides a limited measure of control over the entire Kashmir region, and attain for both populations a sense of victory. The feelings of Kashmiris too would be assuaged to a great extent. It may be the only possible solution in sight.

 

[EagleEyes]

I kind of doubt that such plan will work. Insurgency being the main cause. The bad guys will take the advantage of crossing borders, though not a bad one to start with if the soldiers on both sides can deal with the security issues, which shouldn't really be any because of the third "entity option".

 

[EagleEyes]

There is hope.

 

[vnomad]

It involved the reconstitution of part of Jammu and Kashmir as a sovereign entity, in the same way as Andorra, with free access to and from both of its larger neighbours. The part of the state which was to be reconstituted would be determined through an internationally supervised agreement involving the Kashmiri people, India and Pakistan.

If the part of Kashmir to be jointly administered is the one currently under Indian administration, then the 'solution' isn't likely to be acceptable to India. Conversely, if the Pakistani as well as Indian territories are both a part of the arrangement, the system is feasible and deserves further study.

 

[dabong1]

An intresting article i came across.Some of the main points listed below.


1. AID: The United States, United Kingdom, and the European Union, will give a total of $600,000,000, (USD) per year for the next six years. The aid will be in the form of economic stimulus and humanitarian aid for the educational and health needs of the people of Kashmir. After the six year period the continuing needs of Kashmir will be reassessed. Aid will be administered by the UN and EU troops, as well as being subcontracted to the non-profit organizations already operating in the area, Doctors Without Borders, and the International Red Cross. How best to use the aid will be negotiated annually between the chief executives of Indian and Pakistani-occupied Kashmir and the representatives of those giving, distributing, and receiving this aid. The special envoys will mediate this process. The UN High Commission for Refugees, (UNHCR) will station observers in Kashmir to monitor and report on the use and effectiveness of international aid and to advise the parties as to fairness and practicality of plans. Without the consent of the UNHCR no plan for the use of international will be funded. If a plan has not been agreed upon by the end of the year covered by the previous plan, the previous plan will be extended on prorated bases until a new plan is agreed upon.

2. PEACEKEEPERS: The EU will maintain an active garrison of 7,000 troops, with no less than 80 helicopters, in Kashmir to keep the peace, investigate terrorism, protect minorities, and administer aid. These troops will be subject to Indian and Pakistani national and local laws and justice systems. American and British ground forces can supplement EU troops as Kashmiri unrest subsides.

3. AUTONOMY-NEW BORDERS: The Indian national government will grant partial autonomy to the Muslim majority areas of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. India will cede to Pakistan the small area of territory between Siachen glacier and Karakoram Pass that it seized from Pakistan in 1983, and a permanent international border will be established along the LoC. Local governance will rest in the hands of the people; free and fair elections to reestablish a local democratic government will be supervised by EU troops. Indian soldiers will be confined to their barracks on election days, as supervised by EU troops, to avoid coercion. EU troops will also guard the polls. The Indian National government will retain the sole rights to tax, at the same rates used throughout India, and to defend their borders from international military aggression. However, this new border will be open to all civilians. India and Pakistan will be free to regulate the borders between semi-autonomous Kashmir and their interiors as they see fit.

4. TERRORISM: The investigation of terrorist violence will fall exclusively under the jurisdiction of EU troops. They will utilize the assistance Indian or Pakistani authorities when they see fit, until Kashmir develops its own anti-terrorism force. Indian and Pakistani authorities may pursue terrorists across the border and into one another's territory only when accompanied by EU troops, and remaining across the border for no more than forty-eight hours at a time, with a force of no more than 70, and going no further then 20 kilometers into the other nation's territory. Apprehended suspects will be placed in the custody of the nation in which the alleged offense occurred.

5. ARMS CONTROL: The UN Security Council may call for India and Pakistan to work with Russia to agree to immediate nuclear non-proliferation leading to gradual disarmament and to negotiate three-year timelines for withdrawal of excess troops from Kashmir as well as the clearing of landmines. Furthermore, the Security Council may demand that Pakistan join India in accepting a no first-strike policy in regards to its nuclear arsenal. Negotiations will be mediated by the Special Envoys. The Security Council shall consider imposing severe military sanctions against either India or Pakistan if they fail to cooperate promptly. The Security Council may also call for member nations that offer to sell weapons to, or in any way contribute to the military prowess of, either Pakistan or India to make identical and simultaneous offers to both nations.

6. PRISONERS: India will open its prisons in the state of Jammu and Kashmir to the inspection of the UNHCR and comply with humanitarian reforms. All prisoners accused of violent acts while fighting for Kashmiri independence, but not yet charged with a crime, will be released if the Indian government cannot press significant charges against them within 30 days.

7. DIPLOMATIC TIES: India and Pakistan will return their ambassadors to one another's capitols and keep them there. The semi-autonomous state of Kashmir will be offered the opportunity by UN member nations to establish "Mini-Embassies" in their capitols to develop Kashmiri diplomatic ties.

8. TIMELINE: Gradual EU troop pullout will begin in 2012, ending in 2018, if at that time the UNHCR determines it is in the best interest of all civilians. The seal of success would be to hold the winter Olympics in Kashmir in 2018

http://www.ornery.org/essays/2003-06-12-1.html