Yeti
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There are good reasons why the United States
ought to, upon reflection, affirm its support for
New Delhi’s membership in the Security Council.
By all contemporary assessments, India is likely to
assume a place among the five major economies
in the global system during the first half of this
century. While estimates differ on when India will
overtake giants such as Japan, Germany, the United
Kingdom, and France by exchange rate measures,
all studies agree that India’s economy will
India as a New Global Power: An Action Agenda for the United States
30
grow larger than that of each of these countries
at some point during the next twenty-five to
fifty years. Analyses by the Central Intelligence
Agency indicate that when countries are ranked
by composite measures of national power—that is,
weighted combinations of gross domestic product
(GDP), defense spending, population, and
technology growth—India is projected to possess
the fourth most capable concentration of power
by 2015—after the United States, the European
Union, and China—and to be the most important
“swing state” in the international system. If
global institutions of order are supposed to reflect
the material distribution of power—as they must
if they are to be relevant—then Washington will
be unable to indefinitely avoid entertaining India’s
claims to Security Council membership without
structurally undermining both the evolving hierarchy
of international governance and the transformation
of U.S.-Indian relations.
If expansion of the Security Council is bound
to occur (because the current structure has outlived
the postwar realities that gave birth to it),
then the United States will have to live with a
different, larger, and potentially more intractable
body in any case. Washington can respond to this
reality in one of two ways: Either it can gradually
move away from the UN system itself as an
instrument for advancing U.S. policy goals, or it
can refocus on leading the international system by
consensus, in effect making the effort required to
persuade the new Security Council to support its
interests. In either case, India’s permanent council
membership would pose few disadvantages for the
United States.
ought to, upon reflection, affirm its support for
New Delhi’s membership in the Security Council.
By all contemporary assessments, India is likely to
assume a place among the five major economies
in the global system during the first half of this
century. While estimates differ on when India will
overtake giants such as Japan, Germany, the United
Kingdom, and France by exchange rate measures,
all studies agree that India’s economy will
India as a New Global Power: An Action Agenda for the United States
30
grow larger than that of each of these countries
at some point during the next twenty-five to
fifty years. Analyses by the Central Intelligence
Agency indicate that when countries are ranked
by composite measures of national power—that is,
weighted combinations of gross domestic product
(GDP), defense spending, population, and
technology growth—India is projected to possess
the fourth most capable concentration of power
by 2015—after the United States, the European
Union, and China—and to be the most important
“swing state” in the international system. If
global institutions of order are supposed to reflect
the material distribution of power—as they must
if they are to be relevant—then Washington will
be unable to indefinitely avoid entertaining India’s
claims to Security Council membership without
structurally undermining both the evolving hierarchy
of international governance and the transformation
of U.S.-Indian relations.
If expansion of the Security Council is bound
to occur (because the current structure has outlived
the postwar realities that gave birth to it),
then the United States will have to live with a
different, larger, and potentially more intractable
body in any case. Washington can respond to this
reality in one of two ways: Either it can gradually
move away from the UN system itself as an
instrument for advancing U.S. policy goals, or it
can refocus on leading the international system by
consensus, in effect making the effort required to
persuade the new Security Council to support its
interests. In either case, India’s permanent council
membership would pose few disadvantages for the
United States.
