7 districts to be returned, Nakhichevan gets corridor

[atatwolf]

1. Economic Reason:
1. Armenia can no longer fund the war against Azerbaijan because of deep economical problems.
2. If Azerbaijan opens the border, it means a boom in Armenian economy


2. Social Issues:
1. High emigration rate of youth caused by isolation and economical reason, which has emptied many armenian villages, and smaller cities. It means less number of soldiers for their army as well.
2. recent limited civil unrests, related to point 1.



3. Russian factor:
1. Putin is serious in building his second USSR in terms of economic union, and also capturing, or influencing the ones do not agree. NK issue will impede this strategy.
2. Russian companies have already exploited Armenian economy, but, it is a very limited economy, and does not worth sacrificing their interests in Azerbaijan with 7.5 times of economy of Armenia, which her economy is even going to be doubled until 2020.

Good points

But I have my doubts it will work. Armenia giving up a land connection with Iran would be great for us but not so great for Armenia and Iran. If a new conflict erupts and Turkey and Azerbaijan close their border again with Armenia. Armenia wouldn't have any open border other than Georgia-Armenia border. If I were an Armenian I wouldn't do this.

On the other hand, the greatest thing for Armenia is normalization of relations so borders can open and they can integrate into Azerbaijan and Turkish economies. It would be a golden age for the region but I think Armenians are too indoctrinated for this to happen. They still dream of their Armenian Empire that existed 2000 bc. The sad part for Armenians is that the economic blockade is destroying Armenian society. Soon no Armenian will be left since most of them migrate to US.

 

[Azeri440]

this is bs.
1st , these countries have no intention of solving the problem of NK.
2nd, this deal isn't happening.
3rd, Azerbaijan would never give up its claims to NK for land connection to Nakhchivan.

 

[Kamil_baku]

I think Armenia itself is not the important factor. If it goes against Russia's plans, Armenians might even lose credibility in their eyes. If well understood, Azerbaijan is basically giving up its claims on NK for a land connection in return. If it will work like this, Armenia will be cut off from Iran. Some more explanation, a map would be great too, would be welcome.
@Kamil_baku @ASQ-1918 @Azeri440 do you have more information about this development?

i have found this map, not sure if it's related to the recent developments.
View attachment 141266

However, aren't the gray parts already part of Azerbaijan?
View attachment 141272
I always thought Azerbaijan had control of those regions except for NK.

This is not new topic actually. in 1999, Azeri president Heydar Aliyev had a secret deal with Armenian prime minister to give NK and take the border region(which is called Zengezur, the whole area between Azerbaijan and east Naxchivan). But just days bofore they were going to have a deal, gunmen got into the Parlament and killed him. It was done by Russia. After that, new Armenian government became the puppet of Russia.
Vazgen Sargsyan Karen Demirchian Killed in Gunmen Raid on ParliamentGaregin | Asbarez Armenian News

Armenian either should deal with Azerbaijan, or, it will end up in a war that nobody will have the power to help them. Russia will not take a risk to FIght with Azerbaijan. because.

First, Turkey might join into the war

Second, Azerbaijan is enough strong(with all those technologies we purchase recently) to make an impact on Russian economy. They just cant win it in some days. Also, it might end up fighting against all Islam world.

Third, Azerbaijan has strong connection with Dagestan and Chechna. Any war in Azerbaijan, will influence to the whole region.

and the last one is, Russia just has no power to make a new war right now, and Azerbaijan simply say that, if they dont give Karabakh back, Azerbaijan will start the war..

 

[T-123456]

If possible,i would have taken the corridor for now but i dont think it will ever happen.

 

[Nefer]

This is not new topic actually. in 1999, Azeri president Heydar Aliyev had a secret deal with Armenian prime minister to give NK and take the border region(which is called Zengezur, the whole area between Azerbaijan and east Naxchivan). But just days bofore they were going to have a deal, gunmen got into the Parlament and killed him. It was done by Russia. After that, new Armenian government became the puppet of Russia.
Vazgen Sargsyan Karen Demirchian Killed in Gunmen Raid on ParliamentGaregin | Asbarez Armenian News

Armenian either should deal with Azerbaijan, or, it will end up in a war that nobody will have the power to help them. Russia will not take a risk to FIght with Azerbaijan. because.

First, Turkey might join into the war

Second, Azerbaijan is enough strong(with all those technologies we purchase recently) to make an impact on Russian economy. They just cant win it in some days. Also, it might end up fighting against all Islam world.

Third, Azerbaijan has strong connection with Dagestan and Chechna. Any war in Azerbaijan, will influence to the whole region.

and the last one is, Russia just has no power to make a new war right now, and Azerbaijan simply say that, if they dont give Karabakh back, Azerbaijan will start the war..

I think it would be stupid of Russia to do any such move like you said, but fighting against the whole Islam world, no it would destabilize Everything east of Europe and west of China, this would also put Turkey in a difficult position, but in this turmoil the EU, USA and China would benefit the most.

 

[xenon54 out]

I think it would be stupid of Russia to do any such move like you said, but fighting against the whole Islam world, no it would destabilize Everything east of Europe and west of China, this would also put Turkey in a difficult position, but in this turmoil the EU, USA and China would benefit the most.

I dont think Islamic world would care about Azerbaijan.

 

[Nefer]

I dont think Islamic world would care about Azerbaijan.

Tried to point that out, besides the Turkic nations and the Caucasus, nobody would care, and I suspect Iran would help Russia, but I don't know how the Azerbaijan turks in Iran would react against Iran.

 

[Kamil_baku]

I dont think Islamic world would care about Azerbaijan.

Its true, but there are also many Azerbaijanis in ISIS. almost 1000 fighters went to SYria to fight. in case of any war and JIhad, They might join...

 

[Nefer]

Its true, but there are also many Azerbaijanis in ISIS. almost 1000 fighters went to SYria to fight. in case of any war and JIhad, They might join...

Learn from the past, Chechnya. they betrayed Cevher Dudayev, messed up the place and gave putin a reason to go full scorched earth on the Chechen's.

 

[rmi5]

Its true, but there are also many Azerbaijanis in ISIS. almost 1000 fighters went to SYria to fight. in case of any war and JIhad, They might join...

If you remember, there were many Afghan mujahedin, Chechens, ... from islamic countries joined us against Armenia in Karabagh war.
As long as islamic governments are concerned, Pakistan would stand with us
Anyway, we also have some non-islamic, non-turkic allies like Israel which have very good influence on the world stage

 

[Nefer]

If you remember, there were many Afghan mujahedin, Chechens, ... from islamic countries joined us against Armenia in Karabagh war.
As long as governments are concerned, Pakistan would stand with us
Anyway, we also have some non-islamic, non-turkic allies like Israel which have very good influence on the world stage

Remember Georgia,

 

[Targon]

Aren't Azeris mostly Shia ? what are they doing in ISIS ?

 

[rmi5]

Aren't Azeris mostly Shia ? what are they doing in ISIS ?

The majority of muslim Azeris are shias but does not mean that every Azeri is a shia. Except for non-religious persons, we have a big Sunni, and jewish community as well. Specially in North, the percentage of Sunnis may reach to 30% of muslims. In South, it should be about 5-10 % I guess, but there are no data to confirm it.

 

[ASQ-1918]

Aren't Azeris mostly Shia?

Around 15% of Azerbaijan are Sunni. There are Sunni Caucasian minorities like Lezgins, Avars, but they hardly make up 3% of total population, so most of Sunnis are ethnic Azerbaijani Turks. And while Dagestani groups belong to the Shafi sect, Azerbaijani Sunnis are Hanafi.

 

[Targon]

Around 15% of Azerbaijan are Sunni. There are Sunni Caucasian minorities like Lezgins, Avars, but they hardly make up 3% of total population, so most of Sunnis are ethnic Azerbaijani Turks. And while Dagestani groups belong to the Shafi sect, Azerbaijani Sunnis are Hanafi.

1000 ISIS members, probably a lot of sympathizers and family remained at home, thats not a small number for such a minority. Are there problems between Sunnis and Shias ?