@Shotgunner51 He knows a lot about service sector.
Well ... seriously, im not good at the economy, but i can try to search the data of China manufacturing sector.
Now in China the manufacturing sector is the 1st biggest, service sector is the smallest but P.M Li's government try to improve our service business ... so next years i think China will fouse on developing service sector inside China.
For China nowadays, there are two pillars of economy -
Manufacturing, and
Infrastructure - both tops the world in absolute size, however there are still rooms to grow given low capita figures and
will continue to be main drivers of the economy.
About service sectors, and consumption, I am very conservative:
1) Cultural/Social factor. The advanced economies in
East Asia have low consumption (a GDP factor), high savings (not a GDP factor), relative to high consumption, low savings (even debt financed), in other economies. East Asian economies can be wealthy, but not spending to boost GDP. China will not be an exception.
2) Weak Financial Sector. I have said in other threads, China is having a
probably most underdeveloped financial sector in the world, we see tight regulations on financing and start-ups, interests rate dictated by PBOC, outdated Forex policy, backward secondary markets (e.g. stock exchange), limited participation of the private sector, etc. Without an advanced financial sector, capital wouldn't be appropriated efficiently across the society.
3)
Lack of Socialism in Civil Protection. In this regard China is probably one of the most "capitalist" country in the world, emulating the American Free Market model in that sense. The US is unique in its demographics, open-culture and immigration policy, totally different from demographically "closed-system" like other countries e.g. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the Nordic countries, Germany. Though China is now massively rebuilding public housing, free healthcare, the reform will take along time given the low base to start with,
reaching the level of Hong Kong, Taiwan & South Korea will be the ultimate objective. Only when civil protection is upgraded, China can see improvement in consumption, and service sectors.
4)
Taxation Policy Incompatible With Economic Progress. China should seriously revamp and upgrade the existing tax system, which was applicable only to a completely socialist economy at low-income level. Again, despite China has already started on VAT trial, re-engineer the IIT, it will take some years to complete the reform.
And there are others, I can write for the whole afternoon if PM Li wants to read that! Can't say I am pessimistic, but as a career i-banker I don't see consumption, and to some degree service sectors, being the main driver at least in the short future.