Okay here I go. Before I give my "25 year forecast" I will take look at what and how Pakistan has been shaped. The past informs the future.
Colonial defeatism which I would describe as conspicious articles*
dressed as religion recieved a handle in Pakistan post 1947 in the form of 1949 Objectives Resolution. This was the first point where a
fistula was fixed on the body of the state for toxic mix to infuse into the polity. Besides this symbolism Pakistani state was largely a reflection of Britain. Every institution of the state was British. The army, the police, the judiciary, the civil service and all other aspects that went into making of a modern state were "Made by Britain". Even the language by which the machinery of the state functioned was and remains English.
The elite and bourgeoisie were also British products. They spoke English and dressed like English. From this very class had arisen the movements that agitated for independance and from this class came the men who ran the state apparatus. If you had taken this British product out Pakistan would have returned to middle ages within days. This class had recieved Western education. Jinnah or Sir Allama Iqbal are prime examples of this group. However they were a minority. The vast majority were still living in middle ages.
On independance of Pakistan in 1947 there arose a dichotomy. The strongest supporters of the Muslim League [ML] had been the Muslim minorities in various parts of India.They feared Hindu domination post British withdrawal. Therefore they were very animated and made the vanguard of the ML.
Conversely the regions which would become Pakistan, Punjab, Frontier, Sindh, Balochistan were Muslim majority and had not been particulary concerned about the impending "Hindu domination". Indeed it was the Sikh/Hindu minority who would be in trouble. ML made hardly any impact in what is now Pakistan and remained a localized in what is now India and bizzarely Bangladesh.
Punjab in what is now Pakistan remained staunchly in the hands of the Unionist Party. Only as 1947 approached did ML by using Islam as device to animate the dormant masses of what is now Pakistan recieve widespread support. It was actually shameless use of religion to achieve a political goal. What was the political goal? It was to secure the interests of the minority Muslim urban bourgeoisie [many of who would migrate to Pakistan post 1947 and are still known as "Mohajir"] against the majority Hindu population. It must be emphasised that this
minority syndrome was the compulsion behind ML core support and did not apply in the region that would become Pakistan as it had Muslim majority. The Punjabi Muslims, Pashtuns, Sindhis, Baloch of now Pakistan were
dominant in their respective provinces.
ML under Jinnah once they had managed to get Punjabi Muslims, Sindhi's and Pashtuns behind them and tried to leverage these dominant provinces to secure the interests of ML's core support base which was deep in India amongst Muslim minority which was mostly urban bourgeoisie. Cabinet Mission Plan of 1946 gave that. It involved a confederation of three zones - proximating to No.1 [today Pakistan] No.2 [today India] and No.3 [today Bangladesh]. At confederation level all three would be balanced thereby creating a assurance to all minorties in each zone. ML under Jinnah agreed to this plan. However Nehru refused. His refusal led to end of confederation and road to partition of the British colony was assured. Pakistan came about as a accident rather than by design.
Before anybody had time to gasp British Colony was dissolved and two nation states took over. ML found itself the ruler of land which was strange to most of it's senior leaders. The ML core Muslim bourgeoisie migrated to Pakistan and mostly ended in Karachi. Millions of others also followed them after killing broke out amidst communal tensions.
After Jinnah's death the ML leadership most of which was stranger to the land struggled to gain traction with native peoples of Pakistan. After the independance euphoria everything went back to where it had been. In their desperate attempt to garner support and plant their roots amongst the 'native' ML leaders once again turned to the previously successful recipe of using Islam. It had been used first to get support for ML in support of a separate communal representation when negotiating with the British. Now it was used again to try to galvanize the native behind ML so that they could continue ruling the new state.
ML fell on religion because there was nothing else to
connect with the natives. Thus came the 1949 Objectives Resolution which placed Islam as central to the state. The effect of this resolution made no differance however a fistula had been fixed which at the right time would be used to pump toxic potion into the body of the nation. Despite this though ML's fortunes did not change - they still failed to lay roots amongst the masses who continued to rely on their traditional patterns be they clan, tribal or biradari.
The state continued being run by the British made elite and bourgeoisie. ML lacking any 'legs' with the local population ruled the country through the organs of the state apparatus left behind by the British. Police, military, civil service and judiciary. Soon the military which was almost all recruited from (native) Punjabi/Pashtuns from the northern belt realized that they could take over since ML had no local support and was doing a terrible job of running the country.
General Ayub Khan took over the government and the rule of the country went to the 'natives'. This began a process of divestment. The minority Mohajir community had by fate of history been landed a entire country in their hands in 1947. This began the long process of undoing it. A difficult and troubling process that still resonates today in Karachi. The capital was moved from Karachi (which had become overwhelmed by Mohajir migrants from India) north to Rawalpindi which was ground zero for military recruitment and the home of the army. Soon the capital was built next door in Islamabad as physical proof where power was moving to.
The Ayub era which followed right upto nearly 1970 can be characterized as building up Pakistan in shadow of the West. America had replaced Britain as the guiding light to the ruling military bourgeoisie who being of Anglo-Saxon origin was natural continuation from their mentors the British. This era was probably the most successful rule in Pakistan's history. Almost the basic infrastructure of the country as even exists today was laid then. Massive US aid military and economic aid assured the country prospered.
However the Mohajor community again fell back on Islam as a political tool to regain their earlier domination. While Ayub ruled through the state apparatus various Mohajir inspired religious groups spread their tentacles across the population. Mauddodi a migrant from India who aspired to the
colonial defeatism (which he called Islam) spread his influence far and wide.
The question that I have often asked is did President Ayub Khan not see this? He had secular credentials and would have sat easy in Kemal Ataturk's General Staff. The problem was in the Cold War era the socialists and communists were seen as the number one enemy. There had almost been a coup (Rawalpindi Conspiracy) where military officers, left leaning intellectuals had been accused of planning a socialist take over. It is possible that Ayub overlooked and possibly even gave a nod to these religious groups as a bulwark against socialists. The failed 1965 war against India weakened Ayub and the religious groups which had been working all along by now had enough street muscle to cause trouble to cause trouble which led to Ayub giving up power in 1969.
To my thinking 1969 and Ayub's exit was the death of a alternate Pakistan. A Pakistan that might have moved along a path similar to Turkey. If Ayub's administration had continued it is very possible Pakistan would have been a modern secular republic like Turkey is. However Pakistan was about to take another sharp turn on the road to purgatory.
Right upto 1970 Pakistani state had unabashedly reflected itself as Western. It had largely been financed by the West. Most of ruling class were products of British system and were entirely comfortable with Western mores. This is seen in clothing of the period. Alcohol like in Turkey was available. The country was not that differant from Turkey. This image of Ayub having meal with Lyndon B. Johnson captures the mood of the time. Pakistan honeymoon with the West was about to come to end.
Bhutto who came after Ayub era was great opportunist. He came from landowning family but used socialism as a ploy to gain mass support. In addition he smelled that the conservative Arab kingdoms were about to get flooded with petrodollars. So he created a pseudo Socialism/Islam to get mass support inside the country, harness the increasingly belligerant religious groups that had toppled Ayub. His continous forays to Arab countries begin the Part 2 of Pakistan's journey to where it is today. The fistula of 1949 (Objective Resolution) now got shot load of injection when Ahmedi's were declared non Muslim's. Soon drink would be banned and other superficial but visible changes would be made that would in no way develop the country but were cheap politics.
In addition things really began to shape up and gather pace. Increasing number of Pakistani workers got jobs in Gulf Arab states which were flush with cash after the oil price increases. In addition Arab oil states began to sponsor religious groups inside Pakistan. You can call this Part 2 the 'Arabisation' of Pakistani society. Namaz became Salat, Khuda Hafiz became Allah Hafiz etc.
Bhutto soon found that the horse he had fed was about to run away. As the religious parties which by now had built up support base beyond the Mohajir community began to demand more and more. After General Zia took over the process of "Arabisation" was consummated. However another deadly virus was injected - jihadism. This again came about because of external factors. The US led war against Soviets mated Arabism, Jihadism and American military support. This created the Pakistan we have today.
So who and where is the money coming from to sustain the pseudo Islamic groups that prevent secularism and capitalism to take root? Simple. The enormous numbers of Pakistan ex pat workers sustains a economy that can keep behaving contrary to rest of the world. Any differance is filled with borrowing. However this phase that began in early 1970s cannot go on for long now. With incrreasing population and reducing number of workers the remittances will drop as relative to the economy. As this bites like a binge drinker who starts running out of money Pakistan will have to make some serious changes.
I believe we are at that moment. I believe the remittance bubble is about to fizzle out. This will expose the sham economy built on sham politics. To put it simple Pakistan economy can be summed as follows. Export workers. They will send billions of dollars home. That will create internal demand as well as settle the trade deficit. As internal demand driven by remittances picks up a regulated environment is used to give licences to favourites or create monoploies for favourites to control. Those who hold the licences or manage monopolies are known as 'industrialists' when they are not. They are rentier class. This is why no Pakistan company has dared to go abroad because minus the licence and monopoly they can't operate. The people who run them do so because they rely on their poitical contacts rather than business skills. Because of this most businessmen seek political office or have family in politics because that ensures that the state provides them favourable support. Nawaz Sharif is prime example. He talks of being a steel magnate yet nobody outside of Lahore even knows anything about his Ittefaq foundaries. compare that to Indian's like Mittel etc who have global presence.
However I believe the ruling elite has realized that times are changing. The days of living on exporting labour and borrowing money are coming to a end. We are slowly moving into Phase 3. That is - enter the Dragon. I will cover this is my next post.
Ps. I have abridged the summary and therefore it is reduced in interest of keeping it short. I just glanced over the pivotal points.
*Colonial defeatism dressed as religion is the mating of defeatist mentality and Islam as defined by traditional clergy. That is defeat by West and experiance as subjects of Western order engendered a anti Wetern mindset which distilled hatred of West by turning against anything the West represented. This even took the form of opposition to clothes, manners, habits, ideas of West even if they made perfect sense. In other words do opposite of West meant good even if it meant doing the wrong thing.
This sort of phenomenon is very much evident in the West. I often see people whose roots are from ex colonial countries in UK who perhaps because of racism or other adverse circumstances fall back on a narrative of Islam which is anti everything Western. That is why even on PDF often the biggest cheerleaders for Sharia are members from Pakistan or Bangladesh. This is prime example of defeatism. Having failed to overcome the hurdles they face in wider society they seek solace in a anti Western rhetoric.Although that rhetoric might be called anti-Western in truth it is anti-modern as they would equally clash with Chinese or Japanese ideas with their Sharia driven narrown mindedness.
The Turks do not carry this burden of historical defeatism because they faced the West and defeated it. Therefore they pick and choose quite easily anything from the West which is of utility.
We just need to keep our focus on economy, education, health, transport, law and order, infrastructure and good diplomacy (diplomacy, where we r lacking right now compared to our rivals)...Rest should b fine. Strong economy and healthy people means strong defense. 
