Tough love! Modi’s raising Balochistan doesnt mean he has abandoned hopes of a historic peace

[Star Wars]

@Star Wars I heard you speak in favour of art 370. Why would that be?

If these retarded politicians can support ishrat jahan then they can support anything. Afspa and art370 should remain until k issue is resolved.

 

[Levina]

If these retarded politicians can support ishrat jahan then they can support anything. Afspa and art370 should remain until k issue is resolved.

I support AFSPA in the region but not art 370.The only thing it has achieved is to isolate Kashmir from rest of India.
Other than giving Kashmiris a special status on paper art370 is nothing but a white elephant.

 

[SQ8]

Sir. I agree the escalation of violence and perpetuation of conflict is the most foregone conclusion. That has been my contention while discussing Kashmir earlier too. The predicted shift and linking of Kashmir with Baluchistan was something I was afraid will occur and renew a cycle of violence with much more dangerous and disasterous consequences.

For the quoted text above, am reading things on a larger perspective. Will try and pen it out asap. Had been intending to write on this for sometime. But I sense a mutual convergence of interests is making the middle east and by extension the subcontinent a dangerous area today.

Will tag you when I can get some coherence to my thoughts for your comments/edits/corrections.

Regards

That is because we no longer have proper statesmen in the Indian cabinet. The PM is one man leading a cabinet of what are generally inexperienced and/or hawkish men. By contrast, call it what you want; but the BJP government of Vajpayee's time had some VERY VERY seasoned and well educated leadership. They knew where to prod and pull, and save what was essentially a failure of Indian intelligence at Kargil and a general appreciation of the lack of cohesion in Pakistani leadership; they handled international relations pretty well.
By contrast, if not for the booming economy ; the current Indian government just has a PM making sales calls for what is a very limited portfolio of "offerings" that in the end all link to economy. It is not that there isnt more, but simply that the vision being touted is stuck around a (deservedly)hyped economic growth and investment potential.

This current tit for tat on Balochistan is extremely unlike the Indian approach to diplomacy and is either a forewarning to a trump card(which seems unlikely) they intend to play in case Pakistan does not behave or a desperate gamble to see if the opposite voice coupled with the current economic clout of India will create any pressure. The worst bit is that Pakistan is trying to push the Kashmir issue whilst hoping that there is just a fine line between what India will tolerate before it finds a casus belli.. and India is now pushing that line back and closing the gap.

As for the Russian involvement in Iran, I would look at it from a changing power play in the middle east; the US has dominated politics there for the last two decades and the Russians along with the Chinese are out to change that.

Whatever your write up is to be, keep in mind that history repeats itself.. Nations are at the end Languages and beliefs.. the more they are pushed to a corner, the more they unite under it..the toady of today may not be the Toady 50 years from now.

 

[Spectre]

It is a big gamble, which so far isnt really working is it? All it is then is nothing more than both sides screaming about whose tommy is a the real dog.

Too early to say, this is new ground as traditionally India has been timid due to it's Panchsheel Policy of not interfering in other countries matters (BD and SL notwithstanding as they had direct and tangential impact on India itself due to refugees) . Let's see where this road takes us

 

[Arsalan]

Just my opinion and the view that I see things.

From the Indian point of view, a good approach by Modi Sarkar. As it is said, lets tangle the Pakistan by such statements and make Pakistan to think about other issues being diverted from the main agenda of Kashmir. Indeed, to the some extent it may workout that nobody knows what would be next and in counter of such diplomatic move of India. It is also witnessed that under the context of these statements by the Indian Premier, a well managed campaign is started by Indian media on different subjects that all are directed towards Pakistan based upon anti-Pakistan subjects to diversify more. So while looking at the affect of India's new diplomatic approach, for the one seems like pushing back Pakistan.

While on other hand, from Pakistan prospective, first of all it is proven that India is more desperate due to rise in Kashmir issue nowadays. Modi's statement mentioning about letters from Baluchistan and GB (a claim indeed) proves that India is involved with attempted interference in these areas though there is not much thing like what Modi claimed but good enough to prove the stance. It also give another opportunity to prove that India is involved for the unrest of these areas whereby on certain times and forums, Pakistan's stand against these terrorists has been acknowledged. India made a mere attempt to divert the attention but still, Pakistan stand with same previous point whereby Kashmir is on the top to discuss. Also, the statement of India is to be viewed in context whereby GOI has rejected the UNHCR;s request for access in IoK as well as while denied the invitation of Pakistan for talks on the base of Kashmir subject. Pakistan sees these statements nothing but an attempt to redirect and divert the attention of Int'l Forums as well as UN to other issues which has no substance with the subject of Kashmir at all. Pakistan is still focused on the Kashmir agenda and will be carrying the same practice but with more energy than before.

I mentioned here about "than before thing" because Kashmir subject was on halt or almost frozen in previous democratic tenure whereby, our elite was busy enough to save their hidden accounts and looted money that paid no attention for the support of Kashmir cause. Then after, as the current political elite took charge of the high office, as usual and as per practice in sequence with previous office, was much busy with own political agendas and India friendship goals that put Kashmir subject in storage but fortunately for Kashmiris and unfortunately for Modi, the HR violation started in Kashmir yet protests became regular and clashes with forces that got the attention of int'l community as well as of the people those who supports Kashmiris for their cause and resulted to force NS to change stance. India itself has played a major role to rise the issue of Kashmir once again due to last series of violence since more than a month while more protesters died. It was Bhutto's mistake that came with idea of bilateral talks to resolve the matter but still, any of the party can reach the UN that is not prohibited with agreement at all, in-case the other is not serious to resolve the issue or derails the talks. I mentioned the Bhutto chapter in short that the UN resolution and all those agreements are discussed in length and depth.

Not going by deep into past but last elections in GB proves more than enough for anyone who is not updated well. There was no single complain about the GB Elections by any int'l observer and even if for the sake of arguments, GB is occupied, the whole world is silent and India should cut-off from everyone for such stand but knew that the reality is, GB is in peace and happily progressing. Assembly is working fine and GB is well protected while being self governed and not integrated with Pakistan. Also, GB is going to have a good share in CPEC which will indeed help prosper and the growth of the same and people indeed. Like Baluchistan and others, GB is most pro-Pakistan region that even requested to be integrated with Pakistan, which is a proof enough for the one to understand that how GB stands with Pakistan.

Baluchistan Provincial government if working fine and people like harbiyar marri and Brahamdagh Bugti are on run and sought asylum because not only the law is looking for them but most of all those tribes and tribesmen hates them from the core of heart and both them knows well. These both names have been ruling the Baluchistan in past yet never done anything for the people except more slaves and extortion. Government of Pakistan continued with CPEC that will be beneficial for Baluchistan Province first and all others as well. As the extortion stopped and being low on money, people like Harbiyar ran and started a campaign not because for the people but for the money. If the Baluchistan issue, as Modi portrayed, was that true a long ago, Int'l community alongwith anti-CPEC faces would have forced Pakistan to do what these terrorists are parroting.

The CPEC is the key for everything here in Modi's speech that this route starts with GB and ends at Baluchistan for which, Pakistan is very well aware even the people are as well. Opposing the CPEC wouldn't alone be countered by Pakistan as a strong opposition for such stance but indeed it involves China as well so India has to face two strong oppositions at once which I think, is no more in favour of economical India. India is trying an attempt to portray the CPEC as controversial but seems no weight and substance except to derail the Kashmir cause and diversify the agenda while involving the China which is going to be very helpful. So by highlighting such irrelevant issues, India helped more to bring Kashmir to International Table.

@WAJsal @Neutron @Mugwop @notorious_eagle @Arsalan @Moonlight @Zibago and others.

The problem in Kashmir have been reignited and the issue is hot again. No matter how many other issues like Baluchistan or GB or others are fed with fuel, the Kashmir problem will remain the core issue of the region. It is a quite simple fact if someone tries to understand this.

Frankly if you wish to support Balochistan do it covertly , hardly something you wish to announce from the ramparts of the red fort.
that said this is a major shift in the policy vis a vie Pakistan . Dont know how this will play out in diplomatic circles but this is now a whole new ball game.

If you wish to support "Baluchistan insurgency"!!! INSURGENCY!!! Do not forget that. It is NOT supporting Baluchistan.

Also the fact is that no matter how much drum beating is done to divert attention, the Kashmir issue is for the whole world to see and will remain the main problem of the region.

 

[Areesh]

No country in the world has the right to speak on our internal issues or they will be shown the mirror. Paksitan is still gasping I see...

And we never interfered in India's internal matters and Kashmir is not India's internal matter.

But with your stupid barbs about Balochistan you have open door for Pakistan to talk and interfere in any matter inside India.

WE can even talk about Modi abandoning his wife too now. Guess we should thank Indian government about it.

 

[Areesh]

Lol this is funny.

https://twitter.com/x/status/765526496450605056

 

[Jaanbaz]

Not sure, because I've often seen Balochi post on social media that they need help from India. I am not posting the pictures but you can go ahead and search it on google.
Let's not forget that Baloch leader Mr.Bugti recently recorded a video thanking Modi, which is also doing rounds on social media.

Sure some do, they are rebels and would be hunted down by Pak Army. Do you even speak Baluchi? Understand their culture etc? No Indians know anything about Baluchi language, you can't even understand them, Baluch people also live in Punjab and Sindh, in Sindh there countless of Sindhi-Baluch mix tribes. Try to understand the conflict before you jump the bandwagon. The so called rebels belong to certain tribes who had kicked out pro Pakistani Baluch tribes from their homeland. Before becoming a spokesperson for Baluch people, you might want to speak to our own Baluch on PDF and see what they think of India. Cheers.

 

[Meengla]

Baluchistan's demographics and geography make it near impossible for any power to break it away from Pakistan. Just like Indian Punjab will remain part of India--due to demographics and geography--so will Baluchistan. Our fellow PDF @American Pakistani has recently posted good info about the demographics. It is a futile cause for India--even more futile than the so-called Jinnah Pur of Sindhu Desh. These are not even pressure points!

 

[WAJsal]

You bring up Kashmir and we will add fuel to Balochistan issue- this is exactly what Modi meant, may be in more brusque words.

You add fuel, you have been adding fuel.* correction.
Secondly, what shamelessness really. This is only confirming our stance that India is involved in terrorism in Pakistan.

I wonder why Modi forgot to mention about 'thank you' letters from Radio Mullah. He seems to be taking pride in terrorist thanking Modi for supporting them. I mean this is just low, accepting support for terrorism. Worst part is look at the reaction of Indian public, sorry to say what a bad image of India being presented to the world.

Pakistan should talk about Khalistan and other half dozen freedom movements of India.

No we shouldn't, we shouldn't fall to their level. They are desperate and we already know India is supporting terrorism in Pakistan, what else has Modi said that is new. He is only conforming our stance, we should strengthen our selves internally and show their image to the world.
Hinsutva elements need to swallow Pakistan, it's been 70 years. Work on betterment of your country instead of trying to break us please.

Kashmir valley politically as a part of India.

Jump in policy of Indian state.
PS: i feel sorry for Nehru, what was he thinking right? So much for your assurance Jawar Lal Nehru...

If these retarded politicians can support ishrat jahan then they can support anything. Afspa and art370 should remain until k issue is resolved.

I support AFSPA in the region but not art 370.The only thing it has achieved is to isolate Kashmir from rest of India.
Other than giving Kashmiris a special status on paper art370 is nothing but a white elephant.

Good points. The best argument raised on this subject was by Sartak Ganguly(God knows what happened to him). Look why it was necessary to make this amendment.
@anant_s , last part of my post.

 

[T90TankGuy]

The problem in Kashmir have been reignited and the issue is hot again. No matter how many other issues like Baluchistan or GB or others are fed with fuel, the Kashmir problem will remain the core issue of the region. It is a quite simple fact if someone tries to understand this.


If you wish to support "Baluchistan insurgency"!!! INSURGENCY!!! Do not forget that. It is NOT supporting Baluchistan.

Also the fact is that no matter how much drum beating is done to divert attention, the Kashmir issue is for the whole world to see and will remain the main problem of the region.

Please refer to my post #44

 

[Joe Shearer]

Improvement starts with "I".
Why majority of Indians found there self always on a Pakistani Defense Forum? more then their own forums? Why?

Can you please change the tape on your pre-recorded message? Have you absolutely nothing else to say? I am beginning to think that even the stupidest Indian on PDF contributes more than this monotonous drone.

Why PM Modi’s Balochistan barb changes the India-Pakistan game​

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the gratitude of the people of Balochistan and Gilgit, and nodded at their struggles in his Independence Day speech on Monday, he ended a long period of shadow-boxing in India-Pakistan ties.

This is a game-changer, but its consequences are not clear just yet.

Modi’s reference to Gilgit is significant but can be understood. There is an Indian parliamentary resolution that all of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India. It is, as the strategic analyst Manoj Joshi noted, based on a simple principle - ‘In a dispute, express your maximal position, rather than the one you will compromise on.’ India has, in the past, responded to reports of the presence of Chinese soldiers and workers in the region. National security adviser Ajit Doval, in 2015, spoke of India’s 106-km long border with Afghanistan - which was a reference to Gilgit-Baltistan border.
The real shift is Balochistan.

To understand the leap, let us go back to Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2009. After a meeting between the Indian and Pakistani PMs, a joint statement said that Pakistan has ‘some information on threats in Balochistan and other areas’.
Note the context. Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of supporting insurgents in Balochistan, where it has been facing a long separatist struggle. Islamabad has specifically claimed that Indian diplomats and spies in Afghanistan keep in touch and finance these militants. For Pakistan, it served three ends - it was able to pass off an internal domestic issue into an externally-backed conspiracy; it lobbied with the West to keep India out of the Afghanistan equation with this accusation; and when India pointed to its role in Kashmir, it had a ready-made response on how India is intervening in its internal affairs.

Delhi has always refuted and rubbished the allegations, and asked for proof, which Islamabad was unable to offer convincingly.

It was for this reason that the 2009 statement provoked a huge domestic backlash in India. The opposition, as well as sections of the ruling Congress, saw Sharm-el-Sheikh as a sellout. India was viewed as almost admitting that it has a role in Balochistan. Parliament erupted, and questions were asked why a reference to Balochistan was included in a joint statement. This eroded India’s moral high ground. The government back-tracked and Manmohan Singh’s negotiating hand with Pakistan weakened, almost irreversibly, to the extent that he could not even visit the country despite his deep desire to do so.

Now, look at what Modi has done.

He has, in some senses, embraced the perception pushed by Pakistan, converted it from an accusation to a possible lever, and claimed a role for India in Balochistan.

The thinking is clear - if Pakistan can use internal Indian vulnerabilities (read Kashmir), India can use internal Pakistani vulnerabilities. If Pakistan can internationalise what India considers its problem, India can internationalise what Pakistan thinks falls solely within in its remit. If Pakistan can build a domestic political opinion on human rights excesses in Kashmir, India can build a domestic political opinion on human rights excesses in Balochistan. If Pakistan can cultivate a Kashmiri separatist constituency within India, India can cultivate a separatist Baloch constituency in Pakistan.
There is a big difference so far.

Pakistan has offered tangible financial, moral, political support to Kashmiri separatists. It has, as India says, ‘exported terror’. Whether Indian support will remain confined to a few utterances, or whether it will grow to more tangible forms, is to be seen. What these forms take will be as crucial to India’s reputation. This will also be a test of Indian commitment and give us a sense of whether Modi’s statement is merely rhetorical or there is more to it.

Needless to say, the form of Indian support will determine the Pakistani reaction and the subsequent geopolitical games. There is an additional subtext to it. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will pass through both Balochistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Modi’s statement is meant as much for Beijing as for Islamabad. It will not remain quiet as India ups its game in Balochistan.

What’s, as significant as the statement, is the occasion on which it was made. If it was merely a tactical manoeuvre, India could have left it to a mid-level diplomat, or an official foreign ministry statement or even a pronouncement by a cabinet minister. The fact that India’s Prime Minister has spoken of Balochistan - and from the ramparts of the Red Fort - signifies a level of political sanction and commitment that has not been seen so far on the issue. It also means that once Delhi has taken the plunge, it cannot hop out at will.

A new game is about to commence.

A fine analysis, and you are to be thanked for pointing out how Manmohan Singh, a man whom I otherwise respect as a reasonably good head of government, made a mess of things by allowing the Pakistani Foreign Office to inject the Baluchistan point. There was no evidence before, there was no evidence at the time, and there was unlikely to be evidence for a long time afterwards, simply because for absolute certainty, during UPAII, there was NO involvement. There was a certain amount of tolerance of Baloch dissidents being given travel papers and some logistics support, but nothing more than that, so Pakistani efforts invariably fell flat.

In fact, I was told by 'usually well-informed sources', not from India, that Pakistan found MORE interference in internal affairs of Pakistan in general, not just Baluchistan, from some of the Gulf states than from either India or the US.

@Levina It is a ploy to force concessions out of Pakistan. The fact is that not much is to be gained by 'breaking' Pakistan as it leaves us fighting the good, the bad, the ugly terrorist all by ourselves.

Just enough pressure to keep Pakistan occupied within itself and a leverage to allow unhindered focus on addressing Kashmir valley politically as a part of India.

We ABSOLUTELY do not need a broken Pakistan. That would bring to our own frontiers what they have managed to get under control with great effort, major effort, on their own western frontier.

Pakistan should talk about Khalistan and other half dozen freedom movements of India.

...and break away from their dignified silence all these days. Did you know about their aid to the Mizos? The Nagas? The Naxals?

But then, that is silly of me.

Pakistan never 'talked' about it.

Now the difference is clear.

Frankly I am tired of the disproportionate attention Pakistan receives in India's poltical discourse. It is a neighbour of India's but at the heart of it they are a security problem that can be dealt with with at a ministerial level, there is no need for the PM to be giving them the relevence they crave.

If there were great riches to be made with improved relations with Pakistan then I would wholeheartedly welcome an outreach as large as possible but frankly Pakistan offers almost negligable benefits for India as it stands and they simply aren't open to economic ties with India so why waste the time? Their security establishment is not about to ditch their decades long proxy war with India. Treat Pakistan how it is asking to be treated- as a security problem and leave it at that. The PM (and senior ministers) should be focusing their attention on far more fruitful endeavours such as improved ties with the US, UK, France/EU, China, Japan, Australia, S.Korea, Iran, Middle East, Israel etc etc.


@Joe Shearer @PARIKRAMA @MilSpec @nair @Levina

I agree, wholeheartedly.

It is a problem isolated to the Pakistani deep state. We should let a combination of the military, the foreign service and the home department worry about it.

 

[Dash]

@Levina there is more to it. Read movement of Russian bombers to Iran. Will tag you there. Work up and analyse past weeks moves.

I think you are over analysing it. I have read that piece and it doesn't coincide anywhere other than some mutual lines for discussion on security as far as Russia, Iran Pak and india are concerned.

Pls tag me there I would like to know ur POV visa-vis what we are discussing here.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Three things

1. Problem doesn't go away if you wish - Pakistan takes lot of space not only with India but even countries like US. When Obama was asked what keeps him awake at night - He said Pakistan. India being it's unfortunate neighbor and sole focus of it's mischievous endeavor cannot wish it away in denial.

Threat has to recognized, quantified and neutered and for that we require active diplomacy and security positioning. It was out passivity which has led to this situation

2. China - Pakistan is the front of much bigger threat China and almost all hits landed on India has Chinese figerprints. It is becuase of China that Pakistan escapes much of consequences of it's action and is now nuclear capable. Geo-political situations and India's own economic weakness doesn't allow it to confront China at level we would like so for now we just deal with it's weapon.

3. Perception - Your and @MilSpec arguments are not without merit. India brings itself down to Pakistan's level when it diverts so much of high level attention to it BUT in this world nation's judge us on the basis of our every action. Our bureaucracy is too timid and 2nd rung of leaders too immature to handle Pakistan. Therefor for now we bring our best minds and top heavy pressure to bear on it. Worst thing in this case would be to let Pakistan get away with it's shenanigans - it has to understand the cost when it goes on a diplomatic offensive against India.

Here is the real problem.

This whole mess should have been handled by a secondary tier, with the bureaucracy working for them, not by the top tier. But this particular administration lacks depth. It is unbelievably shallow, with only half a dozen performers.

Frankly if you wish to support Balochistan do it covertly , hardly something you wish to announce from the ramparts of the red fort.
that said this is a major shift in the policy vis a vie Pakistan . Dont know how this will play out in diplomatic circles but this is now a whole new ball game.

I hope that the rest will be in the kind of silence that you have mentioned. Frankly, if there had been serious intent to work on Baluchistan, an enormous amount lay handy, and the whole strategy would have been different. Now they need to think about what they want to achieve, why, and how.

What local standing do you have in this matter? None whats so ever.

Does not preclude the comic fringe from suggesting all these.

I believe so , but to be fair ," Taali ek haath se nahai bajti" Pakistan its self does not seem to be serious about peace.

I tried hard to fit my response into beseeming language, failed, and want to stop at slapping your back and maintaining a poker face.

 

[Star Wars]

That is because we no longer have proper statesmen in the Indian cabinet. The PM is one man leading a cabinet of what are generally inexperienced and/or hawkish men. By contrast, call it what you want; but the BJP government of Vajpayee's time had some VERY VERY seasoned and well educated leadership. They knew where to prod and pull, and save what was essentially a failure of Indian intelligence at Kargil and a general appreciation of the lack of cohesion in Pakistani leadership; they handled international relations pretty well.
By contrast, if not for the booming economy ; the current Indian government just has a PM making sales calls for what is a very limited portfolio of "offerings" that in the end all link to economy. It is not that there isnt more, but simply that the vision being touted is stuck around a (deservedly)hyped economic growth and investment potential.
.

What makes you think the economic growth is Hyped ? Or Modi is going for a "Sales pitch" ? Seems a rather shallow statement to make..