By choosing to ally with India and thus helping India’s attempts to rise in competition with China, the risk for Japan is that it will antagonize all nations that considers India as a threat - these nations are nations that border India (including China) or are nearby such as Sri Lanka, as well as most Muslims nations of the world who consider India as one of the most anti-Muslim nations of the world. Although India contains the 2nd or 3rd largest Muslim population of the world after Indonesia and possibly Pakistan, as is shown from the recent riots, Muslim lives are not safe and secure in India, they are under constant threat for random riot incidents, instigated by Hindutva radical extremist political parties and their activists. A militarily more powerful India will not only translate into more threat perception by Muslim nations in South Asia, but also for Muslim nations elsewhere, regardless of the facade of good relations its diplomats have managed to achieve with some of these nations.
Japan’s latest attempt to join India in an alliance and thus empower this Hindutva terrorist and radical extremist infested nation, will be a continuation of Japanese racist and imperialist policies that it engaged in during WW II and caused untold atrocities killing many millions among many different nations, including China, who bore the main brunt of Japanese attempt to subjugate almost all of East Asia. It seems Japan has not learned from its past mistakes, in fact Japan has not yet apologized the way Germany has. History of Japan’s self defeating policies go much further back in history. Yamato Wa, a fledgeling Japanese country in 7th century, had close cultural and family links with the royal dynasty of Baekje, a small Korean kingdom, during the 3 kingdoms era. Yamato Wa tried to help its ally by sending an Armada in a last ditch effort to save that kingdom. Unfortunately the Armada faced a crushing defeat and total annihilation at the hand of Silla-Tang alliance:
Battle of Baekgang - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A recent historical Korean drama covers this battle and the background in great detail. I will try to post a link to it later.
I would urge China and ASEAN nations to reconsider the ASEAN+ idea to persuade Japan away from choosing this wrong path. If Japan is adamant and continues in this path, as is usually the case when it has made up its mind, then I predict that the following scenario may emerge in the rest of the region:
1. Instead of Japan and South Korea taking the lead in developing and integrating the ASEAN countries, it will be China and South Korea who will take the lead, just like the Silla-Tang alliance in old days,
standing up against an Imperialist Japan and its new lackey, India
2.
China and South Korea will work together to reduce Japanese and Indian influence in the region, so the ASEAN+ idea will remain intact, but it will exclude Japan and include China as the main leader and sponsor, but not formally a part of it
3. ASEAN nations such as Vietnam and Philippines who will go along with the Japanese plan, will be excluded from the ASEAN economic and infrastructure integration plan till they decide to end their support for the India-Japan axis plan and approach
3. Since Vietnam borders China, I believe it will be possible to persuade them using economic incentives and reaching some bilateral compromise about territorial issues
4. Philippines on the other hand will be harder to handle, because of Western influence, although Chinese should make sustained efforts to bring them back closer to other ASEAN nations. If all attempts fail, then China and other ASEAN and Muslim nations spread out in Asia and Africa should reduce trade with all nations that will join this new Japan-India axis of racism bent on genocide of their neighbors
Just like Japan has planned a Japan-India axis as part of the Diamond alliance, Japan is testing the water for another alliance with another large neighbor of China who is close to China, but at the same time feels threatened by China’s rise at some level. This large neighbor happens to be Russia. Shinzo Abe has been visiting many of China’s neighbors in recent months and Russia is one of these countries. Recently there has been some thawing of relationship between the two countries. The 4 northern islands that Russia occupied at the tail end of WW II, Russia is considering shared use with Japan for at least 2 of these islands.
To counter Japanese foray in Eurasia, Chinese could help to create a competing Southern Eurasian Union, comprising of Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. A stable region like this has tremendous development potential and could work to reduce Russian influence and finally draw in the 5 Central Asian stan’s.
