fatman17
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Pakistan Observer - Newspaper online edition
Need to reorient Pakistans strategic vision
Col Ghulam Sarwar (R)
It goes without saying that Pakistan enjoys a unique strategic status in the region, and this status is universally acknowledged by outside powers. So far as Washingtons interests are concerned, it is fully realised that both Afghanistan and Pakistan can serve as an important rout for the US to utilise Central Asian energy resources. In view of these considerations, Washingtons prime objective is to ensure stabilisation of Pak-Afghan route, in order to circumvent Russia, China and Iran from exploiting Central Asian resources. Peeping into the recent past, we see that in 1989, Afghanistan had successfully vanquished a superpower the Soviet Union. In view of prevailing situation, in the region, it was only logical that Washington had facilitated the formation of a nationalist government and invested in Afghanistans reconstruction. However, Washington failed to rise to the occasion and as a result, different warring factions continued gun-running, as chosen by CIA.
As is well-known, Washingtons financial commitment to Afghanistans reconstruction was paltry and it also lacked a coherent planning. Much to the surprise of many, in its 2003 budget, the Bush administration did not request any reconstruction aid in its budget proposal. And as a result, Washington slashed reconstruction aid to Afghanistan from one billion dollars in 2005 to $ 623 million in 2006, although that was the time when reconstruction efforts had cried for more funding and better implementation.
It is interesting to note here is that with passage of time, Washingtons sphere of influence strategy gave way to the strategy of global power projection for a new world order. Viewed in this context, it is reasonable to assure that the US had made a post-9/11 plan for Pakistan and Afghanistan. Washington seems to wait to reconstruct the region not as it is structurally but as it visualises it to be.
Here, noted analyst, Zeenia Satti cautions with regard to its involvement in its War on Terror, According to her, the US cannot continue to occupy Afghanistan for long. The Afghan insurgency, if supported by Russia and China, could break up NATO. Neither could it abandon Afghanistan due to the latters strategic location. In order to guarantee the safety of pipeline, the US could go to the extent of breaking Afghanistan into separate, ethnically harmonious states.
In is generally believed that poverty aggravates ethnic differences and it has the potential to explode into armed conflict. Pipelines are generally blown up during such conflicts Afghanistans break up is, therefore, entirely plausible. The imperatives of global power projecting require the existence of smaller states in strategic areas, because that could be controlled militarily with lesser cost.
Dr. Zeenia is of the view that in case, a Pashtun state, emerges, the NWFP would become its political ligament if Islamabad continues with the war on terror. While Pakistan is building a wall along Sistan/Balochistan, it is overtaken by the events on its north-Western front. This political inertia could cost Pakistan dearly and go to prove that Pakistan is surely a truncated, mutilated and moth-eaten, as given futuristic relevance to Quaid-i-Azams expression.
Further, we note that is case Afghanistan is broken into smaller states, Pakistan would stand to lose on another accounts. The new Pashtun state would be hostile to Islamabad, give to shabby treatment, meted out to Taliban. And it is well-known fact that vendetta is ingrained in the Pashtun culture. Cordial inter state relations are important to ensure the safety of transiting pipelines that are governed by multilateral, instead of corporate to a single government treaties.
It is a sad commentary on the existing state of affairs that while Islamabad is busy killing Pashtun Afghan insurgents and their local sympathisers, India is being invited to join in the reconstruction efforts of the Karzai government. Indias soft power in Afghanistan is rising. In addition to its mission in Kabul Indias consulates are functioning in Mazar-i-Sharif. Herat, Kandhar and Jalalabad. As against this, Pakistans soft power is being washed away in the blood that the US is compelling Islamabad to spill in its Pashtun lands. In July 2003, Pakistan embassy was attacked by hundreds of Afghans in Kabul. In February 2007, it Afghan envoy was kid- napped from FATA.
Pakistans territory is of vital strategic importance to India. India is the second fastest growing economy in the world dependent entirely on imported fuel. All of Indias supply from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia conveniently transits through Pakistan. Hence, India, needs Pakistans help. Further Dr. Zeenia maintains that institutional integrity has come under strain over the NWFP operation and this operation has made the Pashtuns restive. Incidentally, Pashtuns are the second largest ethnic contingent within Pakistans military. All this is happening against the backdrop of the convergence of Indo-US strategic interests vis-à-vis Pakistan.
During the Cold War, Washington built the elite military institutions within Pakistan as an ally and ensured Pakistans survival at crucial juncture such as the 1971 Indo-Pak War. The US, no longer, wants a strong military, much less a nuclear military in Pakistan. If Pakistan fails to devise a security policy that addresses the new imperatives of resource geo-politics, it will expose itself to various pitfalls.
Need to reorient Pakistans strategic vision
Col Ghulam Sarwar (R)
It goes without saying that Pakistan enjoys a unique strategic status in the region, and this status is universally acknowledged by outside powers. So far as Washingtons interests are concerned, it is fully realised that both Afghanistan and Pakistan can serve as an important rout for the US to utilise Central Asian energy resources. In view of these considerations, Washingtons prime objective is to ensure stabilisation of Pak-Afghan route, in order to circumvent Russia, China and Iran from exploiting Central Asian resources. Peeping into the recent past, we see that in 1989, Afghanistan had successfully vanquished a superpower the Soviet Union. In view of prevailing situation, in the region, it was only logical that Washington had facilitated the formation of a nationalist government and invested in Afghanistans reconstruction. However, Washington failed to rise to the occasion and as a result, different warring factions continued gun-running, as chosen by CIA.
As is well-known, Washingtons financial commitment to Afghanistans reconstruction was paltry and it also lacked a coherent planning. Much to the surprise of many, in its 2003 budget, the Bush administration did not request any reconstruction aid in its budget proposal. And as a result, Washington slashed reconstruction aid to Afghanistan from one billion dollars in 2005 to $ 623 million in 2006, although that was the time when reconstruction efforts had cried for more funding and better implementation.
It is interesting to note here is that with passage of time, Washingtons sphere of influence strategy gave way to the strategy of global power projection for a new world order. Viewed in this context, it is reasonable to assure that the US had made a post-9/11 plan for Pakistan and Afghanistan. Washington seems to wait to reconstruct the region not as it is structurally but as it visualises it to be.
Here, noted analyst, Zeenia Satti cautions with regard to its involvement in its War on Terror, According to her, the US cannot continue to occupy Afghanistan for long. The Afghan insurgency, if supported by Russia and China, could break up NATO. Neither could it abandon Afghanistan due to the latters strategic location. In order to guarantee the safety of pipeline, the US could go to the extent of breaking Afghanistan into separate, ethnically harmonious states.
In is generally believed that poverty aggravates ethnic differences and it has the potential to explode into armed conflict. Pipelines are generally blown up during such conflicts Afghanistans break up is, therefore, entirely plausible. The imperatives of global power projecting require the existence of smaller states in strategic areas, because that could be controlled militarily with lesser cost.
Dr. Zeenia is of the view that in case, a Pashtun state, emerges, the NWFP would become its political ligament if Islamabad continues with the war on terror. While Pakistan is building a wall along Sistan/Balochistan, it is overtaken by the events on its north-Western front. This political inertia could cost Pakistan dearly and go to prove that Pakistan is surely a truncated, mutilated and moth-eaten, as given futuristic relevance to Quaid-i-Azams expression.
Further, we note that is case Afghanistan is broken into smaller states, Pakistan would stand to lose on another accounts. The new Pashtun state would be hostile to Islamabad, give to shabby treatment, meted out to Taliban. And it is well-known fact that vendetta is ingrained in the Pashtun culture. Cordial inter state relations are important to ensure the safety of transiting pipelines that are governed by multilateral, instead of corporate to a single government treaties.
It is a sad commentary on the existing state of affairs that while Islamabad is busy killing Pashtun Afghan insurgents and their local sympathisers, India is being invited to join in the reconstruction efforts of the Karzai government. Indias soft power in Afghanistan is rising. In addition to its mission in Kabul Indias consulates are functioning in Mazar-i-Sharif. Herat, Kandhar and Jalalabad. As against this, Pakistans soft power is being washed away in the blood that the US is compelling Islamabad to spill in its Pashtun lands. In July 2003, Pakistan embassy was attacked by hundreds of Afghans in Kabul. In February 2007, it Afghan envoy was kid- napped from FATA.
Pakistans territory is of vital strategic importance to India. India is the second fastest growing economy in the world dependent entirely on imported fuel. All of Indias supply from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia conveniently transits through Pakistan. Hence, India, needs Pakistans help. Further Dr. Zeenia maintains that institutional integrity has come under strain over the NWFP operation and this operation has made the Pashtuns restive. Incidentally, Pashtuns are the second largest ethnic contingent within Pakistans military. All this is happening against the backdrop of the convergence of Indo-US strategic interests vis-à-vis Pakistan.
During the Cold War, Washington built the elite military institutions within Pakistan as an ally and ensured Pakistans survival at crucial juncture such as the 1971 Indo-Pak War. The US, no longer, wants a strong military, much less a nuclear military in Pakistan. If Pakistan fails to devise a security policy that addresses the new imperatives of resource geo-politics, it will expose itself to various pitfalls.
