masterchief_mirza
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 29, 2019
- Messages
- 9,706
- Reaction score
- 17
- Country
- Location
Well said. Truly Armenians have lost whatever good will may have existed towards them before this war.
Featured Azerbaijan Armenian War
- Thread starter NeonNinja
- Start date
RealNapster
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- May 6, 2015
- Messages
- 7,611
- Reaction score
- 9
- Country
- Location
Okay. So Armenia was supposed to vacate and handover some areas to Azerbaijan till 15th Nov. Did they ? Why we haven't seen any ceremony from Azeri side ? Any pictures?
boca120879
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2016
- Messages
- 190
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to the rest
& Good day to the rest
Hassan Al-Somal
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2015
- Messages
- 6,825
- Reaction score
- -37
- Country
- Location
Azerbaijan President Aliyev:
"Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan. No special status (autonomy, autonomy, etc.) will be given there"
The Grand National Assembly of Turkey has accepted to deploy Turkish forces to Azerbaijan, including newly liberated territories. If the Russians thought that they'll be extending themselves in Karabagh and some regions that have to still come back to Azerbaijan alone, they have a rude awakening. Turkey will be there as well.
Meanhile, I hope Turkey develops nukes and the means to deliver them.
"Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan. No special status (autonomy, autonomy, etc.) will be given there"
The Grand National Assembly of Turkey has accepted to deploy Turkish forces to Azerbaijan, including newly liberated territories. If the Russians thought that they'll be extending themselves in Karabagh and some regions that have to still come back to Azerbaijan alone, they have a rude awakening. Turkey will be there as well.
Meanhile, I hope Turkey develops nukes and the means to deliver them.
Last edited:
ziaulislam
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 22, 2010
- Messages
- 23,620
- Reaction score
- 9
- Country
- Location
thye have means, both a blastic missle and stealth crusie missles
they also have nukes stationed from NATO inside turkey
developing nukes isnt that difficult, all you need is to steal some nuclear material from a nuclear power plant..
issue is being a regional power means you need alliances, you need a strong economy and military independence
ziaulislam
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 22, 2010
- Messages
- 23,620
- Reaction score
- 9
- Country
- Location
President on his joy ride tour
That Guy
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2013
- Messages
- 14,553
- Reaction score
- 52
- Country
- Location
Delayed, due to logistical issues.
Armenia requested 1 week delay to let civilians properly evacuate, but with only one road for them to do so, it's taking time; Azerbaijan accepted the request.
The issue is miniaturization of nuclear warheads, that takes time, resources, and a tremendous amount of effort.
zectech
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2018
- Messages
- 4,085
- Reaction score
- -3
- Country
- Location
Very interesting, the whole conversation by this Georgian:
I am 90% right in figuring out who is behind what. I would not be surprised if putin gave the green light to this war operation, either to Baku or Ankara, so that Russia can expand further in the Caucasus, motive kept unknown until later (even if only for 5 years, as if Moscow is gonna keep that agreement).
Here is how Washington got Saddam into thinking he could invade Kuwait without any fuss from Washington, and this news story broke in the New York Times as a "whoops, my bad" on the part of Washington.
Last edited:
boca120879
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2016
- Messages
- 190
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to the rest
& Good day to the rest
zectech
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2018
- Messages
- 4,085
- Reaction score
- -3
- Country
- Location
The Karabakh War – Regional and Global Outcomes
Giorgi KoberidzeNovember 11, 2020Armenia, Articles, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey
Post navigation
Previous
Next
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh after the November 10 agreement
On September 27, 2020, the renewed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh completely changed the existing order in the South Caucasus. In terms of military Azerbaijan have managed and waged 21st-century modern warfare, destroying the part of the Armenian army based in Karabakh, and inflicted up to two billion dollars military equipment losses to Armenia. As a result of the fighting, the Azerbaijani military captured not only the southern part of the former Karabakh Autonomous Region and its historic centre, the city of Shusha but also other four regional centres around Karabakh, which since 1994 were no longer controlled by official Baku. The Azerbaijani army also made significant progress northward, capturing two important cities, a reservoir and a mountain range. Despite the apparent Azerbaijani military advantage, the fire in Karabakh ceased on November 10 and create a new reality on the ground.
As a result of the truce, a peacekeeping mission consisting of Russian troops was formed which occupy the rest of the territory of the former Karabakh Autonomous Region, which still held by Armenian forces, centred in Stepanakert. They also occupied the Lachin corridor, which connects Karabakh with Armenia. According to the agreement, the Armenian militia and armed forces must withdraw from all Azerbaijani districts around Karabakh by December. But as Russia is responsible for control, observe and overview peace on the ground it is possible for Armenian militia to remain in and around Stepanakert. No matter how this issue resolved, it is clear that the region gets a large Russian military base on the territory of de jure Azerbaijan. Despite that, the 26-year status quo has changed, which will result in Azerbaijan successfully recaptured all areas around Karabakh except Lachin, official Baku has not been able to fully retake Karabakh territory and de facto cede the control rest of territory to Russia and indirectly to Armenia. This changes the pre-existing order even more, as Russian military bases and, consequently, political leverage is found in the internationally recognized territories of the three South Caucasus countries: Georgia – in occupied Abkhazia and Samachablo, Armenia – in Gyumri, and in Azerbaijan – Karabakh and Lachin. As a result, Russian influence throughout the region is growing and creating a so-called Russian Peace (Pax Russica), a term portrays reality far from real peace, development and stability. If Armenia or Azerbaijan seeks to aspire an independent foreign policy from Russia and/or pursue projects that are unacceptable to the Kremlin, Russia, as a peacemaker, may launch a military-political maneuver to dissuade both of them.
Russia has set a precedent that any conflict in the South Caucasus will eventually come to end when Russia really insists. Throughout the war, both the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides had communicated with Kremlin. The abrupt end of the conflict indicates that during all six weeks of fighting both official Yerevan and Baku had not only openly, but also covertly negotiated with official Moscow. Such a development indicates an increase in Russian political weight which threatens the Western interests in the region.
Despite the victorious war, Azerbaijan failed to fully restore its territorial integrity. On a short time scale with the change of the status quo, Azerbaijan gains a noticeable advantage and even manages to get rid of the label of a loser. It is also expected that official Baku will soon begin the process of returning 600,000 IDPs to its controlled territories. In addition, the Azerbaijani military is gaining the status of a leading and modern force in the region. Despite all of these significant successes, de facto control of Azerbaijan could not be exercised over the entire territory of Karabakh, which is compounded by the emergence of Russian military bases on the ground. This reality is, from a strategic point of view, a problem, a challenge, and to some extent a limitation of foreign political sovereignty for the country that won the war.
Another notable result is the stabilization the government of Ilham Aliyev and the achievement of political consolidation. The demand of Azerbaijani political diversity will not be tangible for some time. At the same time, Turkish influence in Azerbaijan’s domestic and foreign policy will increase, which has been growing dynamically in recent years. It is also important to note that in the long run the increased role of Turkey during and after the conflict will inevitably come into conflict with Russian interests, and this is clear to all actors.
Militarily, Armenia was defeated. The perception inside the country about the invincibility of the Armenian army is changing, which followed by the dissatisfaction and anger of the people. The investments of the Armenian Diaspora, used for the reconstruction of Karabakh, were destroyed in six weeks, and significant part of the territories inhabited by the Armenian population came under the direct control of Azerbaijan. Armenia’s military potential is significantly reduced, as well as its combat motivation. The country will definitely have to go through a reassessment process and think about who its real ally is and what the country’s foreign policy vector should be. The war has once again proved that the existence of Russia as its main ally is a mistake and contains wrong expectations especially when the Kremlin have a bad reputation of being an unreliable force. But still, it is unknown what conclusions Armenia will draw after the war.
The situation is changing in Yerevan as well. If the revolutionary government of Nikol Pashinyan and his project of modernization and democracy, to some extent, allowed the idea of playing independently from Russia, now this may change – Pashinyan has to fight for its own political survival.
Despite the defeat in the war, Armenia still manages to maintain fragile but de facto control over the small part of former Karabakh Autonomous Region – centred in Stepanakert. This means that the worst-case scenario was avoided by Armenia, which would lead to the complete loss of the Armenian-populated territories in Karabakh. It is clear that as a result of the war, Armenia’s foreign policy will become even more subordinate to Russia. Of course, recognizing and assessing military defeat after the victorious war in the 1990s will not be easy and consolidating revanchist forces may occur, but it will further destabilize the country.
Another very important outcome is the construction of road connecting Nakhichevan with rest of Azerbaijan which will build through the Syunik province of Armenia. If this project is implemented and Azerbaijan invests heavily then the road to Nakhichevan and then to Turkey will pass through Syunik, which will be economically and politically undesirable for Georgia a country with a life-line transport corridor for Azerbaijan. It is also important to note that the high-permeability concrete-asphalt road from Nakhichevan to Turkey already exists and can be widened. This further increases the motivation to implement the Syunik road project. It is still unknown who and in what form will control the road between Nakhichevan and the rest of Azerbaijan and whether there will be customs services on it, but the fact is that full loading of the road will not be in Georgia’s interests.
Imports of Turkish products in Azerbaijan reached 1.65 billion in 2019. A significant part of them was transported by land or air corridor of Georgia. If this is reality changes and corridor diversifies, it will reduce the geopolitical weight of Georgia, but mostly insignificantly and will not pose a threat to the existing gas or oil pipelines, which are one of the main energy arteries for the EU.
Overall, the post-war reality in the South Caucasus has changed. Georgia remained the only country that has an unchanging and unwavering pro-Western and independent foreign policy from Kremlin. What Russia has been able to do in Armenia and Azerbaijan, it failed to do in Georgia – despite the war in 2008, the Kremlin has not been able to remove this important Black Sea country from the Euro-Atlantic course. This indicates Georgia’s potential to become the Western lighthouse in the South Caucasus. Against the backdrop of growing Russian influence the region now the support from the European Union and the United States to Georgia is highly important and is the part of interests of the West. 2020 has shown that the promotion of democracy and security in Georgia becomes even more necessary and valuable for the Western world.
Giorgi Koberidze
Senior Fellow
foreignpolicycouncil.com
Giorgi KoberidzeNovember 11, 2020Armenia, Articles, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey
Post navigation
Previous
Next
On September 27, 2020, the renewed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh completely changed the existing order in the South Caucasus. In terms of military Azerbaijan have managed and waged 21st-century modern warfare, destroying the part of the Armenian army based in Karabakh, and inflicted up to two billion dollars military equipment losses to Armenia. As a result of the fighting, the Azerbaijani military captured not only the southern part of the former Karabakh Autonomous Region and its historic centre, the city of Shusha but also other four regional centres around Karabakh, which since 1994 were no longer controlled by official Baku. The Azerbaijani army also made significant progress northward, capturing two important cities, a reservoir and a mountain range. Despite the apparent Azerbaijani military advantage, the fire in Karabakh ceased on November 10 and create a new reality on the ground.
As a result of the truce, a peacekeeping mission consisting of Russian troops was formed which occupy the rest of the territory of the former Karabakh Autonomous Region, which still held by Armenian forces, centred in Stepanakert. They also occupied the Lachin corridor, which connects Karabakh with Armenia. According to the agreement, the Armenian militia and armed forces must withdraw from all Azerbaijani districts around Karabakh by December. But as Russia is responsible for control, observe and overview peace on the ground it is possible for Armenian militia to remain in and around Stepanakert. No matter how this issue resolved, it is clear that the region gets a large Russian military base on the territory of de jure Azerbaijan. Despite that, the 26-year status quo has changed, which will result in Azerbaijan successfully recaptured all areas around Karabakh except Lachin, official Baku has not been able to fully retake Karabakh territory and de facto cede the control rest of territory to Russia and indirectly to Armenia. This changes the pre-existing order even more, as Russian military bases and, consequently, political leverage is found in the internationally recognized territories of the three South Caucasus countries: Georgia – in occupied Abkhazia and Samachablo, Armenia – in Gyumri, and in Azerbaijan – Karabakh and Lachin. As a result, Russian influence throughout the region is growing and creating a so-called Russian Peace (Pax Russica), a term portrays reality far from real peace, development and stability. If Armenia or Azerbaijan seeks to aspire an independent foreign policy from Russia and/or pursue projects that are unacceptable to the Kremlin, Russia, as a peacemaker, may launch a military-political maneuver to dissuade both of them.
Russia has set a precedent that any conflict in the South Caucasus will eventually come to end when Russia really insists. Throughout the war, both the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides had communicated with Kremlin. The abrupt end of the conflict indicates that during all six weeks of fighting both official Yerevan and Baku had not only openly, but also covertly negotiated with official Moscow. Such a development indicates an increase in Russian political weight which threatens the Western interests in the region.
Despite the victorious war, Azerbaijan failed to fully restore its territorial integrity. On a short time scale with the change of the status quo, Azerbaijan gains a noticeable advantage and even manages to get rid of the label of a loser. It is also expected that official Baku will soon begin the process of returning 600,000 IDPs to its controlled territories. In addition, the Azerbaijani military is gaining the status of a leading and modern force in the region. Despite all of these significant successes, de facto control of Azerbaijan could not be exercised over the entire territory of Karabakh, which is compounded by the emergence of Russian military bases on the ground. This reality is, from a strategic point of view, a problem, a challenge, and to some extent a limitation of foreign political sovereignty for the country that won the war.
Another notable result is the stabilization the government of Ilham Aliyev and the achievement of political consolidation. The demand of Azerbaijani political diversity will not be tangible for some time. At the same time, Turkish influence in Azerbaijan’s domestic and foreign policy will increase, which has been growing dynamically in recent years. It is also important to note that in the long run the increased role of Turkey during and after the conflict will inevitably come into conflict with Russian interests, and this is clear to all actors.
Militarily, Armenia was defeated. The perception inside the country about the invincibility of the Armenian army is changing, which followed by the dissatisfaction and anger of the people. The investments of the Armenian Diaspora, used for the reconstruction of Karabakh, were destroyed in six weeks, and significant part of the territories inhabited by the Armenian population came under the direct control of Azerbaijan. Armenia’s military potential is significantly reduced, as well as its combat motivation. The country will definitely have to go through a reassessment process and think about who its real ally is and what the country’s foreign policy vector should be. The war has once again proved that the existence of Russia as its main ally is a mistake and contains wrong expectations especially when the Kremlin have a bad reputation of being an unreliable force. But still, it is unknown what conclusions Armenia will draw after the war.
The situation is changing in Yerevan as well. If the revolutionary government of Nikol Pashinyan and his project of modernization and democracy, to some extent, allowed the idea of playing independently from Russia, now this may change – Pashinyan has to fight for its own political survival.
Despite the defeat in the war, Armenia still manages to maintain fragile but de facto control over the small part of former Karabakh Autonomous Region – centred in Stepanakert. This means that the worst-case scenario was avoided by Armenia, which would lead to the complete loss of the Armenian-populated territories in Karabakh. It is clear that as a result of the war, Armenia’s foreign policy will become even more subordinate to Russia. Of course, recognizing and assessing military defeat after the victorious war in the 1990s will not be easy and consolidating revanchist forces may occur, but it will further destabilize the country.
Another very important outcome is the construction of road connecting Nakhichevan with rest of Azerbaijan which will build through the Syunik province of Armenia. If this project is implemented and Azerbaijan invests heavily then the road to Nakhichevan and then to Turkey will pass through Syunik, which will be economically and politically undesirable for Georgia a country with a life-line transport corridor for Azerbaijan. It is also important to note that the high-permeability concrete-asphalt road from Nakhichevan to Turkey already exists and can be widened. This further increases the motivation to implement the Syunik road project. It is still unknown who and in what form will control the road between Nakhichevan and the rest of Azerbaijan and whether there will be customs services on it, but the fact is that full loading of the road will not be in Georgia’s interests.
Imports of Turkish products in Azerbaijan reached 1.65 billion in 2019. A significant part of them was transported by land or air corridor of Georgia. If this is reality changes and corridor diversifies, it will reduce the geopolitical weight of Georgia, but mostly insignificantly and will not pose a threat to the existing gas or oil pipelines, which are one of the main energy arteries for the EU.
Overall, the post-war reality in the South Caucasus has changed. Georgia remained the only country that has an unchanging and unwavering pro-Western and independent foreign policy from Kremlin. What Russia has been able to do in Armenia and Azerbaijan, it failed to do in Georgia – despite the war in 2008, the Kremlin has not been able to remove this important Black Sea country from the Euro-Atlantic course. This indicates Georgia’s potential to become the Western lighthouse in the South Caucasus. Against the backdrop of growing Russian influence the region now the support from the European Union and the United States to Georgia is highly important and is the part of interests of the West. 2020 has shown that the promotion of democracy and security in Georgia becomes even more necessary and valuable for the Western world.
Giorgi Koberidze
Senior Fellow
The Karabakh War – Regional and Global Outcomes
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh after the November 10 agreement On September 27, 2020, the renewed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh completely changed the existing order in the South Caucasus. In ter…
foreignpolicycouncil.com
boca120879
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2016
- Messages
- 190
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to the rest
Perhaps,
the hypocrisy at the highest order.
& Good day to the rest
Perhaps,
the hypocrisy at the highest order.
Russians have redrawn the border of NK to include Dadivank in the area of NK which says with armenia it seems. This is only the beginning of what they are planning.
Sometimes an open Russian invasion like in Ukraine or georgia is better, they are going to invade you one way or another, and if they are going to invade its better to cut all ties with them and impose a cost to their invasion.
Sometimes an open Russian invasion like in Ukraine or georgia is better, they are going to invade you one way or another, and if they are going to invade its better to cut all ties with them and impose a cost to their invasion.
boca120879
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2016
- Messages
- 190
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to the rest
& Good day to the rest
ziaulislam
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 22, 2010
- Messages
- 23,620
- Reaction score
- 9
- Country
- Location
This guy isnt reliable..
Last i check people were leaving & standing in long cues to be baptized
Similar threads
