Impacts of change of government in India on Bangladesh

[BanglaBhoot]

India is holding its elections but it will be a month before anyone can get to know the results - so vast is the country, so massive its electorate and so many its constituencies. Who forms the government in India is of concern to everyone including countries like USA, China and Russia, but smaller states of the South Asian region, including Bangladesh, are more than worried because the impact of the change is more direct and immediate.

On the surface, politics in India and Bangladesh have many similarities: both are plagued with "dynastic" politics and with corruption, divisiveness, violence and conflict. A more striking similarity is that both polities are dominated by conglomerates/coalitions of two major parties - in India, the Indian National Congress is a secular centrist party which led the Indian independence struggle and now heads a coalition called the United Progressive Alliance or UPA (comparable, in Bangladesh to the Awami League and its grand alliance); standing in opposition to the Congress and UPA is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a religious based nationalist party that fronts a loose coalition of parties dubbed the National Democratic Alliance or NDA (comparable, in Bangladesh to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and its 4 party alliance).

The linkages do not end here but go much deeper. In 1971, India led by Congress with Indira Gandhi as the Prime Minister actively supported the Bangladesh War of Liberation led by the Awami League with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as the undisputed leader. After that successful intervention which led to the independence of Bangla-desh, India and Bangladesh signed a 25-year treaty of friendship. Since then, the Bangladesh Awami League and the Indian National Congress have a close, almost symbiotic relationship with each other; anytime both are in government in their respective states, "cooperation" between both countries increase exponentially. When the BJP is in government in India, such close relationships and cooperation are replaced with more formal inter-state interactions between Bangladesh and India. When the BNP is in government in Bangladesh and the BJP in India, relationships between India and Bangladesh take a frigid, often confrontational turn.

Regardless of whether it is the BJP or the Congress in government, India would want a sympathetic, if not exactly a friendly government in Bangladesh and so, by all counts, calculations and probabilities, as far as India is concerned, the government of choice in Bangladesh is an Awami League government. Were it not for the peculiar coincidence that the Congress coalition was in government in India when elections in Bangladesh took place and now during Indian elections an Awami League government is in place in Bangladesh, Bangladesh could expect active interference, even interventions in its politics by the Indians which could lead to a severe destabilization of Bangladesh and the entire region, already riven by
separatism, terrorism, conflict and violence of various types and magnitudes.

editorial

 

[Jako]

Good post mr munshi........i wish the congress stays in power......but by any chance if the third front(i wd vote them)comes to power.....bangladesh will be the biggest gainer because of the TFs great bengali connection....thnx

 

[fuzon_tauheed]

Agree and last part of the article is the most significant to realise.

 

[idune]

Bengalis from West Bengal are biggest enemy against Bangladesh and Bangladeshis. These people work round the clock against Bangladesh inside india, EU and North America.Their loss of indian power base would be better but overall following are correct.

Regardless of whether it is the BJP or the Congress in government, India would want a sympathetic, if not exactly a friendly government in Bangladesh and so, by all counts, calculations and probabilities, as far as India is concerned, the government of choice in Bangladesh is an Awami League government. Were it not for the peculiar coincidence that the Congress coalition was in government in India when elections in Bangladesh took place and now during Indian elections an Awami League government is in place in Bangladesh, Bangladesh could expect active interference, even interventions in its politics by the Indians which could lead to a severe destabilization of Bangladesh and the entire region, already riven by
separatism, terrorism, conflict and violence of various types and magnitudes.

 

[TopCat]

What is the probabaility of 3rd front coming to power??? I guess very slim. Bangladesh gained most under Gujral doctrine. Who was in power when Farakkah and Chakma issues were resolved?
I hope so called terrorist hide outs in bangladesh propaganda will go away from Bangladesh's neck after the new govt. BJP is real bastards....

 

[BanglaBhoot]

Actually the BJP are more pragmatic than Congress and can be controlled by America. As usual it will be hostile to Bangladesh but it will not pretend to be your freind and stab you in the back like the Congress.

 

[kingkong]

National parties, which are increasingly resembling a sum of their local parts, thus find it increasingly difficult to create a national imperative in terms of how people vote. So the campaigns we see on television, however pervasive they might appear to be, may actually play a very small role in determining what happens in the elections.

Also, there are fewer unifying issues that cut across all constituencies this time. Terror is not high on the rural agenda, the economy affects Market India more than Electorate India while the concerns of rural India do not crease the brow of those watching television, for most part.

So it matters little that the BJP is struggling to find a sharp instrument to cut the Congress with. In a locally dominated election like this one, attacking an allegedly weak prime minister might not make much sense because the electorate has not expected too much from him, and for matter anyone in his position. Also, today to see L K Advani as a strong decisive leader is not as plausible as it might have been a decade ago. The Congress, too, is doing little noteworthy.

As an incumbent that has not polarized the electorate on anything too significant, its role is to lie low and not give the opposition anything too tangible to shoot at. It has to avoid the mistake made by the BJP in the last elections, which was to stand for something too specific. The problem with India Shining was that it begged a rebuttal.

Do election campaigns matter any more? - City City Bang Bang - Santosh Desai - Columnists - Opinion - The Times of India

Awami league can deal better with the UPA if
both ruling parties in Bangladesh and India are willing to choose peaceful
negotiations over confrontation.

 

[ANDUBYLL]

Actually the BJP are more pragmatic than Congress and can be controlled by America. As usual it will be hostile to Bangladesh but it will not pretend to be your freind and stab you in the back like the Congress.

I think, the BJP has no qualms about Bangladesh and Pakistan. Congress still thinks of them as long lost cousins rather than independant nations !
It was BJP who started the peace process under Vajpayee who also went to the Minar-E-Pakistan.
Then again, BJP and Congress policies are similar and over the years, these two political parties are more similar then different