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GDP 226 billion USD, Per Capita 1401 $

That's exactly the point. Bangladesh hasn't even started to leverage debt to fuel growth in various areas such as infrastructure. The govt. is way too conservative on these steps and has way too much of reserves. Only large projects undertaken last decade are Rooppur, Matarbari, Metro expressways and Metro Subways in Dhaka and then the Padma bridge (which happens to be one of the mega projects in the subcontinent) like UKBengali mentioned.

In this respect we are even behind Pakistan....



Bangladesh Internet penetration is also around 32%.

http://www.internetworldstats.com/asia/bd.htm

Bangladesh seems to be doing well in all aspects apart from infrastructure .

http://lpi.worldbank.org/international/global

Logistics Overall network

India 48
Pakistan 72
Bangladesh 108

http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015/rankings/

Quality of roads

Pakistan 75
India 76
Bangladesh 117

Air transport infrastructure

India 71
PK 92
Bangladesh 127

Bangladesh needs to Beef up its infrastructure .
 
That's exactly the point. Bangladesh hasn't even started to leverage debt to fuel growth in various areas such as infrastructure. The govt. is way too conservative on these steps and has way too much of reserves. Only large projects undertaken last decade are Rooppur, Matarbari, Metro expressways and Metro Subways in Dhaka and then the Padma bridge (which happens to be one of the mega projects in the subcontinent) like UKBengali mentioned.

In this respect we are even behind Pakistan....

Growth led by debt is extremely unstable. That's why BD has not pursued it. You need foreign exchange for more important purposes than just pay back interest. That's why countries prefer to keep debt as a last resort.

Pakistan is in an arms race with India, that's why they are in a mess today. BD doesn't have to face the problem of dealing with India militarily. So you don't have to take measures like Pakistan has.

Nobody is in line to give BD interest free debt or humongous amounts of aid money like the case with Pak and even then Pak is in a mess.
 
I think it can be done in the next 5 years.Currently India's gdp per capita is 346 USD more than BD.But if you discount around 100 super rich Indian who have disconnected themselves from Indian realities and mostly live and spend their income in western countries,you can safely say that Indian per capita income is already below that of BD.

There are few pockets of relatively prosperous area in India like Punjab,Harayana,Goa,Mumbai,Bangaluru etc.Bharati Bollywood media only shows those places.But that regions only contain 15-20 percent of total population.Other 80-85 percent Indian have lower income than average Bangladeshi.You only have to look at the condition in the population giant like UP, Bihar, West Bengal,Madhya Pradesh,Rajastan,Chattishgarh,Assam to get the true picture of rising shining suppa pawa.:sick:
Well buddy no need to bring India here. We are proud of Bangladesh, coz finally BD is growing at very good rate. 8-9% growth rate should be the target for next 5-6 years. Plus per capita income of India will be higher because there too much inequality in income in India, you will find people having big mansions of $ 1.5 billion and thousands of peoples living in slums in its neighbour. That is the case with India. Bangladesh should have short term target of achieving $ 300 billion economy before 2025 and per capita of $ 2000+.
 
Bangladesh should have short term target of achieving $ 300 billion economy before 2025 and per capita of $ 2000+.
BD economy is projected to become 320 billion in 2020.I don't think it will decrease 20 billion in the next 5 years.
 
Apologies what I meant was 350+ billion..
Should actually surpass 500 billion dollars in then prices by 2025.:D

Glad to see that South Asia is finally making real progress in getting out of poverty.:enjoy:
Economic progress is the only way for this region to prosper.. Plus I think 500 billion is little too optimistic, BD will have grow between 8-9% for this decade.
 
Apologies what I meant was 350+ billion..

I'm not sure you understand much about the Bangladeshi economy. At current prices the GDP stands at roughly $224bn and accorrding to most estimates should exceed $300bn by 2020, now your telling me were only going to add $50bn to our GDP from 2020 to 2025? Are you expecting the economy to stagnate in those 5 years?

The GDP growth rate currently stands at over 7%, and as the major infra project come on line GDP growth should easily reach 8-9%. Damn just the port and bridge project on their own is expected to add over 1% to the growth rate.

Our infrastructure, such as deep sea ports, rail, roads, bridges, electricity etc is the worst in south asia, and is whats holding us back. As much of the low cost production shifts out of china, and into Bangladesh, your going to see massive FDI from 2020-2025 and rapid GDP growth lead by exports.

Bangladesh GDP will reach at least $450bn+ by 2025 even on the most conservative estimate.
 
I'm not sure you understand much about the Bangladeshi economy. At current prices the GDP stands at roughly $224bn and accorrding to most estimates should exceed $300bn by 2020, now your telling me were only going to add $50bn to our GDP from 2020 to 2025? Are you expecting the economy to stagnate in those 5 years?

The GDP growth rate currently stands at over 7%, and as the major infra project come on line GDP growth should easily reach 8-9%. Damn just the port and bridge project on their own is expected to add over 1% to the growth rate.

Our infrastructure, such as deep sea ports, rail, roads, bridges, electricity etc is the worst in south asia, and is whats holding us back. As much of the low cost production shifts out of china, and into Bangladesh, your going to see massive FDI from 2020-2025 and rapid GDP growth lead by exports.

Bangladesh GDP will reach at least $450bn+ by 2025 even on the most conservative estimate.



As an example, there is both the current project to build the Padma bridge and it has just been announced the agreement to construct a new railway,using the Padma Bridge, from Dhaka to the South West. This will simply transform road, rail, gas and telecommunications links between the capital and that part of the country. These are just a couple of examples of the massive infrastructure projects ongoing and upcoming over the next decade which will revolutionise infrastructure in BD.
 
I'm not sure you understand much about the Bangladeshi economy. At current prices the GDP stands at roughly $224bn and accorrding to most estimates should exceed $300bn by 2020, now your telling me were only going to add $50bn to our GDP from 2020 to 2025? Are you expecting the economy to stagnate in those 5 years?

The GDP growth rate currently stands at over 7%, and as the major infra project come on line GDP growth should easily reach 8-9%. Damn just the port and bridge project on their own is expected to add over 1% to the growth rate.

Our infrastructure, such as deep sea ports, rail, roads, bridges, electricity etc is the worst in south asia, and is whats holding us back. As much of the low cost production shifts out of china, and into Bangladesh, your going to see massive FDI from 2020-2025 and rapid GDP growth lead by exports.

Bangladesh GDP will reach at least $450bn+ by 2025 even on the most conservative estimate.

I would project around 500 billion USD by 2025 since GFCF is now approaching 30% and continuing to increase. That means solid capacity utilisation in about 10 years time and Bangladesh demand growth rate is roughly on par with India so there is no problem from that end.

The only fly in the ointment may be human capital development + long term political scenario, but there is no clear way to judge for that presently and project it meaningfully.
 
I would project around 500 billion USD by 2025 since GFCF is now approaching 30% and continuing to increase. That means solid capacity utilisation in about 10 years time and Bangladesh demand growth rate is roughly on par with India so there is no problem from that end.

The only fly in the ointment may be human capital development + long term political scenario, but there is no clear way to judge for that presently and project it meaningfully.

http://www.thedailystar.net/city/bangladesh-ahead-india-wef-human-capital-report-86473

http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/...tpaces-india-on-human-development-indicators/
 

Averages mean little to my analysis since India is a collection of several Bangladeshes (about 8 in total). So if India has lets say 3 Bangladeshes far outpacing original Bangladesh in human capital quality, about 2 roughly even and 3 lagging....and producing a worse overall average by some metric....that still means economies of scale and cluster based development vastly in favour of India.

Thats why there is a massive discrepancy when it comes to Industrial and manufacturing output between India and Bangladesh....currently and in future projection.

That's exactly the long term advantage China has had say over Vietnam (which both have roughly comparable human capital development overall when averaged) in/around the 80s/90s especially.

I am not even going to bring in basic Education average parameters (which i generally weight much more heavily compared to health)...where India beats Bangladesh quite decisively (and even more when you consider the total numbers receiving higher and vocational education). You can look up the previous threads or UNESCO UIS database if you want those numbers (or I will post them here later if needed)

But lets stick to the human capital report 2015:

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Human_Capital_Report_2015.pdf

Some noticeable points:

1) India scores much better than Bangladesh in the under 15 score of human capital (India: 82, Ban: 75). Those are people that are going to be coming into play economically in the timeframe of 10+ years.

2) Quality perception of education. Comparing the profiles (rated from 1 to 7, higher = better):

For Maths/Science: India = 4.23 Ban = 3.36

Business schools: India = 4.43 Ban = 3.72

Specialised training services: India =4.21 Ban = 3.11

Capacity to attact talent: India = 3.82, Ban = 2.40

Capacity to retain talent: India = 3.93, Ban = 2.71

3) Labour force participation rate,

This is the reason Bangladesh equalises with India in the overall metric (along with life expectancy + ease of starting business helping). Its higher across all age bands (which may not be necessarily good in the 15 - 24 range, India also has lower incidence of child labour). So you can say overall that more women %-wise in Bangladesh have jobs outside the household. But is this what Bangladesh is going to rely on long term to be ahead in human capital terms (esp given India is improving its life expectancy + female employment + ease of business averages)? - because its certainly not a measure of human capital quality which is the next point:

4) Employment pattern:

Skilled employment share: India: 14.6% Bangladesh: 6.3%

Medium-skilled: India: 73.4% Ban: 53%

One can deduce from this that most of Bangladeshi employment is skewed to low skilled (around 40% remaining) compared to 12% for India remaining. That in a way also correlates well with the poverty rate of both countries.

5) All this culminates in one very basic stark discrepancy in the human capital "worth" of a nation, the patents filed by country to the USPTO in 2015:

India: 3355

Bangladesh: 2

Its corroborated by your WEF capital report looking at points 2 and 4 combined with India measuring better in cluster development, university-business collaboration and % public spending on education.

So any metric can be "averaged" out by equally weighting certain metrics when in all honesty human capital development needs to be skewed in its measurement to account for how the basic idea of capitalism works (high quality concentration + economies of scale).

So it is my point that there are several crucial areas in Human capital development that Bangladesh needs to address to make sure it is not caught in a bad place when these become more important as time goes by.....because Bangladesh growth is going to become much more sensitive to these parameters compared to India in the coming years.
 

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