'China will be 2nd most powerful nation by 2050'

[Nomenclature]

then can we conclude US is 5 years behind Denmark and Irenland? 10 years behind Norway and Switzerland?

IMF 2009

Norway 78178
Switzerland 63536
Denmark 56263
Irenland 49863
US 45934

First you should use PPP instead of nominal exchange rate when compares per capita GDP.

Also, I was making comparison in the time scale of decades, not years. You also need to realize while such comparisons make sense in the context of economies in their fast growing stage of development, it might not mean very much when used on already developed countries.

 

[below_freezing]

another thing i'd like to add: in terms of science and technology, your statement is extremely inaccurate and your date on korean high speed rail is straight wrong:

Korea Train Express - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'd understand if you were not a science or engineering student, but if you are this carelessness is irresponsible.

 

[Nomenclature]

another thing i'd like to add: in terms of science and technology, your statement is extremely inaccurate and your date on korean high speed rail is straight wrong:

Korea Train Express - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'd understand if you were not a science or engineering student, but if you are this carelessness is irresponsible.

Care to explain why I was wrong? I gave 1990s as the time South Korea began its high-speed rail construction and your source gives June 30, 1992.

 

[gypgypgyp]

Sure you can't pick up random countries and compare, but in the case of East Asian countries with similar cultural background and similar development model, such comparisons can be meaningful. Besides GDP, we can also look at

Olympics
Japan 1964
S.Korea 1980
China 2008

World Expo
Japan 1970
S.Korea 1993
China 2010

Beginning of High-Speed Rail construction
Japan 1960s
S.Korea 1990s
China 2000s

Beginning of pop culture influence
Japan 1970s-1980s
Hong Kong 1980s-1990s (golden age of HK cinema)
S.Korea 1990s-2000s (Korean wave)

and many more. All fall in roughly same timeline.

In fact comparisons with Japan, S.Korea and Taiwan in similar stage of development feature prominently in popular and academic discussions in China. I remember when Beijing and Shanghai won the rights to 2008 Olympics and 2010 World Expo respectively, there were some excitement in Chinese press about it only taking China 2 years to go from Olympics to Expo while took Japan 6 years.

Beginning of High-Speed Rail construction
Japan 1960s
S.Korea 1990s
China 2000s

You sure about it?

Korea finish his HSR-350x project and hit 352.4km/h in 2004

China finish Siemens Transrapid 08 project and hit 501km/h in 2003

and China star project and hit 321 km/h in 2002

 

[Nomenclature]

Beginning of High-Speed Rail construction
Japan 1960s
S.Korea 1990s
China 2000s

You sure about it?

Korea finish his HSR-350x project and hit 352.4km/h in 2004

China finish Siemens Transrapid 08 project and hit 501km/h in 2003

and China star project and hit 321 km/h in 2002

I was referring to the begin of construction, not finishing date.

 

[below_freezing]

Care to explain why I was wrong? I gave 1990s as the time South Korea began its high-speed rail construction and your source gives June 30, 1992.

Sorry, i read on the completion date.

the completion date of 2004 (which should be the "real" metric of development, otherwise India would be the most developed country on earth with its numerous in-progress projects) was AFTER the completion of the first high speed line in China (Qinshen Railroad)

High-speed rail in China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



While the maglev was drawing attention to Shanghai, conventional track HSR technology was being tested on the newly-completed Qinhuangdao-Shenyang (Qinshen) Passenger Railway. This 405 km (251 mi.) standard gauge, dual-track, electrified line was built between 1999 and 2003. In June 2002, a domestically-made DJF2 train set a record of 292.8 km/h (185 mph) on the track. The China Star (DJJ2) train followed the same September with a new record of 321 km/h (200 mph). The line supports commercial train service at speeds of 200–250 km/h, and has become a segment of the rail corridor between Beijing and the Northeast China. The Qinshen Line demonstrates the greater compatibility of HSR on conventional track with the rest of China's standard gauge rail network.

Use of beginning dates is not an accurate metric and makes inefficiency seem superior to efficiency.

 

[gypgypgyp]

First you should use PPP instead of nominal exchange rate when compares per capita GDP.

Also, I was making comparison in the time scale of decades, not years. You also need to realize while such comparisons make sense in the context of economies in their fast growing stage of development, it might not mean very much when used on already developed countries.

ok then we talk about GDP (PPP) per capita

Norway 51985
Singapore 50180
Brunei 47930
United States 45934
Hong Kong 42653
Japan 32554


base on your statement

Norway/siingapore/Brunei is beyond US by XX years?

And Japan seems like 10 years behind Hong Kong. Why in your statement Japan is more developed than Hong Kong?

I just want to know how could you conclude China is 50 years behind Japan, nothing more than that.

 

[gypgypgyp]

I was referring to the begin of construction, not finishing date.

Then do you mean you are comparing a plan with something else, and get your statement?

If I start a plan to develop 8th generation spaceship right now, is it mean I out pace entire human?

 

[Nomenclature]

ok then we talk about GDP (PPP) per capita

Norway 51985
Singapore 50180
Brunei 47930
United States 45934
Hong Kong 42653
Japan 32554


base on your statement

Norway/siingapore/Brunei is beyond US by XX years?

And Japan seems like 10 years behind Hong Kong. Why in your statement Japan is more developed than Hong Kong?

I just want to know how could you conclude China is 50 years behind Japan, nothing more than that.

Well, if China now is at the same stage of development as Japan was 50 years ago, then I can say China is 50 years behind Japan in reaching this particular crucial stage (Lewisian turning point or what have you).

Of course Japan hit the bump in the 1980s so Hong Kong and S.Korea and Taiwan are catching up or overtaking it (I think GDP per capita in Taiwan is forecast to overtake Japan in the next year). It will be interesting to see if in particular S.Korea economy will also slow down like Japan did in the 1980s.

 

[Nomenclature]

Then do you mean you are comparing a plan with something else, and get your statement?

If I start a plan to develop 8th generation spaceship right now, is it mean I out pace entire human?

Beginning construction is different from having a concrete plan which is in turn different from starting to draw a plan.

 

[gypgypgyp]

Well, if China now is at the same stage of development as Japan was 50 years ago, then I can say China is 50 years behind Japan in reaching this particular crucial stage (Lewisian turning point or what have you).

Of course Japan hit the bump in the 1980s so Hong Kong and S.Korea and Taiwan are catching up or overtaking it (I think GDP per capita in Taiwan is forecast to overtake Japan in the next year). It will be interesting to see if in particular S.Korea economy will also slow down like Japan did in the 1980s.

If you say China is copying "Doubling national income plan" which Japan launched between 1960-1970, that is turth.

But please be aware, in 1965, Japan's nominal GDP was just over $91 billion. Japan still far away from the world 2nd economic. It is a material diffrence between 2010 China and 1960 Japan.

In Japan Golden 60's, they only archieve average grwoth at 9%, China has growth at 11% for last 3 decades.

 

[gypgypgyp]

Beginning construction is different from having a concrete plan which is in turn different from starting to draw a plan.

Hey Rome wasn't build in a day.






State planning for China's high speed railway began in the early 1990s. The Ministry of Railways (MOR) submitted a proposal to build a high speed railway between Beijing and Shanghai to the National People's Congress in December 1990.In December 1994, the State Council commissioned a feasibility study for the line. Conventional track HSR technology was being tested on Qinhuangdao-Shenyang (Qinshen) Passenger Railway. This 405 km (251 mi.) standard gauge, dual-track, electrified line was built between 1999 and 2003

 

[below_freezing]

Beginning construction is different from having a concrete plan which is in turn different from starting to draw a plan.

and completion of construction is even better in beginning it. the only thing that matters in the end is completion. nothing else. absolutely nothing else. using this metric, we've already surpassed south korea.

also, if you use GDP to measure national strength, then we are as strong as albania and weaker than greece, and norway is the strongest nation on earth.

look, saying one nation is 50 years behind another is not a good way to put things unless you can be sure that they're actually 50 years behind in every aspect. i can say vietnam is 20 years behind China because they are in every aspect, from culture to technology, where we were in 1990.

does china have the same technology that japan had in 1960? is china's relative ranking the same as japan's in 1960? is our culture similar to that of japan in 1960? if china as of today went to war with a 1960's japan alone, would it be fought to a tie?

if we used that metric, then in 1950 we were as strong as the US.

therefore, we should say, for a particular metric, we are X years behind or ahead. it is impossible to say overall.

 

[TechLahore]

In many ways, China is the world's second most powerful country. And if you factor in the advantages that a rising power has against one which has already seen its best days, perhaps China is the most important country.

However, what one has got to respect and admire is the innate Chinese sense of humility. There is no chest thumping going on, either at the governmental level, or even by our Chinese friends participating on this forum. They keep pointing to areas where they are behind the west, and never focus excessively on their amazing accomplishments.

I find the Chinese national character - with this wonderful expression of humility - to be in sharp contrast to many of the more arrogant powers we have seen in the recent past. Kudos to China for being possibly the greatest nation on earth, and being humble at the same time.

 

[peaceful]

Well, if China now is at the same stage of development as Japan was 50 years ago, then I can say China is 50 years behind Japan in reaching this particular crucial stage (Lewisian turning point or what have you).

typical BS comparison.

with only 130 million people living on a tiny island, it is of course far easier to "develop" itself. true, in a lot of areas, for the national average stats, the gap is almost 50 years. however, what is the real meaning here comparing 130 million people to 1.3 billion?

how about comparing Chinese coast line cities with Japan? for example, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have a combined population of 120 million, the land size is more similar, will you claim your 50 years gap again?

or maybe you want to tell me that Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu do not represent China?