'China will be 2nd most powerful nation by 2050'

[no_name]

I see the US heading towards civil war and collapse. See, the US "strength" is an illusion. It is a military empire held together by 2 things alone: military strength, and the prospect of making easy money, with the 2nd being its primary attractor for others and the first discouraging any dissidents from armed rebellion.

As soon as the US is no longer able to provide an environment for people to make easy money in, it will crumble like a deck of cards. Who would have thought in 1920 that the mighty British Empire, the one which covered 1/4 of the globe, had a navy that controlled 3 oceans and whose industrial might seemed unmatchable, would be reduced to dust 30 years later?

US right now is not even close to what Britain was in 1920. It was like that 10 years ago.

If the worst should happen like you said then it will be seen whether their cultural fabric will be strong enough to keep their identity together should everything else falls apart, which have happened more than once to china before but she beared the blunt.

 

[CardSharp]

If the worst should happen like you said then it will be seen whether their cultural fabric will be strong enough to keep their identity together should everything else falls apart, which have happened more than once to china before but she beared the blunt.

and there lies the true strength of China. China the idea has never died, it lived through foreign invasion, civil war and fragmentation and it is what continues to shape China today.

 

[no_name]

I think continental europe also have that sense of identity (e.g. France). A sense of inclusiveness I think for all people within a nation. Does the american dream count (?) What I see now is that alot of immigrant to europe are not culturally assimated peoperly and overtime this may affect national identity/unity.

It seems the modern world is moving too fast in this respect.

Rome fell partly because the people in different areas under its control did not see themselves as Romans. So once it is overthrown it cannot piece itself back together again. Whereas a country like Iran even if torn by war can still preserve a sense of identity.

 

[Nomenclature]

In East Asia, Mainland China is about 50 years behind Japan, 40 years behind Hong Kong and 30 years behind South Korea/Taiwan.

Chinese government's stated goal is to become a mid-level developed country by 2050, which is quite possible if it means reaching where Hong Kong (which I would classify as mid-level developed) is now by 2050.

But if the goal is to reach parity with mid-level developed countries by 2050 then that's not going to be easy. The standard of 'mid-level developed country' will also rise with time and I think by 2050 China would be more like a low-level developed country rather than mid-level (by 2050 standard).

 

[below_freezing]

I think continental europe also have that sense of identity (e.g. France). A sense of inclusiveness I think for all people within a nation. Does the american dream count (?) What I see now is that alot of immigrant to europe are not culturally assimated peoperly and overtime this may affect national identity/unity.

It seems the modern world is moving too fast in this respect.

Rome fell partly because the people in different areas under its control did not see themselves as Romans. So once it is overthrown it cannot piece itself back together again. Whereas a country like Iran even if torn by war can still preserve a sense of identity.

And that's our hope for the US. see, the US is not a homogenous society, and the "American Dream" is a dream of making money. Once that dream of making money is gone, what is left?

Only 60% of Americans are whites and that proportion is declining. Latinos and Blacks, who are only there because of the hope of making money, are starting to gain the majority. When the USD is no longer the global currency, hyperinflation, along with no real sense of what an "American" is (other than making easy money) for 40% of the population, along with the white oppression of minorities, would result in social instability.

 

[no_name]

I think also that capitalism is a major force shaping the US history (and Australia/NZ to some extent). While the English, French, and others have a period of development prior to introduction of industrial revolution and capitalistic, colonial culture. Another is Christianity.

Capitalism - Embodified in the American Dream
Christianity - Embodified in In God We Trust

 

[no_name]

In East Asia, Mainland China is about 50 years behind Japan, 40 years behind Hong Kong and 30 years behind South Korea/Taiwan.

Chinese government's stated goal is to become a mid-level developed country by 2050, which is quite possible if it means reaching where Hong Kong (which I would classify as mid-level developed) is now by 2050.

But if the goal is to reach parity with mid-level developed countries by 2050 then that's not going to be easy. The standard of 'mid-level developed country' will also rise with time and I think by 2050 China would be more like a low-level developed country rather than mid-level (by 2050 standard).

Which index are you referring to? I didn't feel Taiwan is 20 years behind Japan or even 10 years behind HK.

 

[Nomenclature]

Which index are you referring to? I didn't feel Taiwan is 20 years behind Japan or even 10 years behind HK.

Historical GDP. China's GDP per capita is about the same as Japan in 1960, Hong Kong in 1970 and SK/Taiwan in 1980.

I'm talking from a historical perspective, China's 40 years behind Hong Kong and 30 years behind Taiwan doesn't mean Taiwan's 10 years behind Hong Kong now. It just means Taiwan's 10 years later than Hong Kong to reach the developmental status mainland China is in now.

 

[gypgypgyp]

Historical GDP. China's GDP per capita is about the same as Japan in 1960, Hong Kong in 1970 and SK/Taiwan in 1980.

I'm talking from a historical perspective, China's 40 years behind Hong Kong and 30 years behind Taiwan doesn't mean Taiwan's 10 years behind Hong Kong now. It just means Taiwan's 10 years later than Hong Kong to reach the developmental status mainland China is in now.

Hey dude, you need travel around the world to see the turth.

GDP per capita (IMF 2009)

Qatar 59990
Japan 39740
China 3735

Does it mean we are 100 years behind Qatar?

If we compare with

Luxembourg 105,918
US 45934

Does it mean US is 20 years behind Luxembourg?

 

[Gold1010]

Does this article take into consideration that russia will also be growing?

 

[Bangalorean]

All this talk of 'x number of years behind' is meaningless. There is really no barometer to measure how many years "behind" one country is when compared to another.

 

[Nomenclature]

Hey dude, you need travel around the world to see the turth.

GDP per capita (IMF 2009)

Qatar 59990
Japan 39740
China 3735

Does it mean we are 100 years behind Qatar?

If we compare with

Luxembourg 105,918
US 45934

Does it mean US is 20 years behind Luxembourg?

Qatar is oil-rich while Luxembourg is a tax-haven. Remove irregularities like those you'll see GPD per capita to be a fairly good indicator of development.

 

[gypgypgyp]

Qatar is oil-rich while Luxembourg is a tax-haven. Remove irregularities like those you'll see GPD per capita to be a fairly good indicator of development.

then can we conclude US is 5 years behind Denmark and Irenland? 10 years behind Norway and Switzerland?

IMF 2009

Norway 78178
Switzerland 63536
Denmark 56263
Irenland 49863
US 45934

 

[Nomenclature]

All this talk of 'x number of years behind' is meaningless. There is really no barometer to measure how many years "behind" one country is when compared to another.

Sure you can't pick up random countries and compare, but in the case of East Asian countries with similar cultural background and similar development model, such comparisons can be meaningful. Besides GDP, we can also look at

Olympics
Japan 1964
S.Korea 1980
China 2008

World Expo
Japan 1970
S.Korea 1993
China 2010

Beginning of High-Speed Rail construction
Japan 1960s
S.Korea 1990s
China 2000s

Beginning of pop culture influence
Japan 1970s-1980s
Hong Kong 1980s-1990s (golden age of HK cinema)
S.Korea 1990s-2000s (Korean wave)

and many more. All fall in roughly same timeline.

In fact comparisons with Japan, S.Korea and Taiwan in similar stage of development feature prominently in popular and academic discussions in China. I remember when Beijing and Shanghai won the rights to 2008 Olympics and 2010 World Expo respectively, there were some excitement in Chinese press about it only taking China 2 years to go from Olympics to Expo while took Japan 6 years.

 

[below_freezing]

These are "beginnings" but the important part is acceleration. These are truly meaningless metrics as a "year" now is not the same as a "year" before.