'China will be 2nd most powerful nation by 2050'

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'China will be 2nd most powerful nation by 2050'
By Chen Jia (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-10-26 07:43
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May become largest economy by 2030: Report

BEIJING - The country's top think tank has predicted China will be the world's most powerful nation, second only to the United States, by the year 2050.

China will also strive to be among the top five most competitive countries of the G20 by 2020, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said in its Report on National Competitiveness of China, which was released on Monday.


The country has remained among the top five powerful nations with regard to economic growth since 1992 and is expected to overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2030, the report said.
According to data for the first half of this year, China has eclipsed Japan to become the world's second-biggest economy after three decades of blistering growth.

China ranked 17th in national competitiveness among 100 countries in 2008, a jump of 56 places from its previous listing in 1990, according to the report.

"China's comprehensive competitiveness has rapidly climbed up the rank over the past 20 years, but we are worried about its competitiveness with regard to efficiency and industrial structure," said Ni Pengfei, director of the Research Center for City and Competitiveness under the CASS, at a press conference in Beijing.

"We need to foster new growth areas in a bid to prevent unsustainable development caused by the extensive economic growth pattern."

The report also warned that China's core competitiveness could not match its ranking when it comes to high-level talents, culture, education, health, science and technology.

For example, China's index of high-level talents stands at 8.3 percent of that of the US and 10 percent of that of Japan, clearly indicating a big gap in the human resources sector, the report said.

In the field of higher education, China's index is only 10 percent of that of the European Union and one third of the US, the report said.

Though China ranked 4th in higher education competitiveness in 2008, most of the first-class universities are still in the EU and the US, it said.

The report also said the country's science and technology competitiveness index is less than one third of that of the US.

There are 329 famous institutions of science and technology in the US, while China has only 61, the report said.

The report also predicted that China's cultural attractiveness, which ranked behind the EU, Japan and the US between 2004 and 2008, will continue increasing.

"We should think of a country's cultural power when talking about its national competitiveness," said Chen Shaofeng, deputy director of the cultural industries institute under Peking University.

The report suggested China makes more efforts to promote its international image to enhance its appeal and attractiveness.


'China will be 2nd most powerful nation by 2050'

 

[Hyde]

But isn't china already the second most powerful nation of the world?
They are already dictating terms in the World, already a second largest exporter of the world, already second largest economy, defence-wise better than almost everybody, what else is required to make them second most powerful nation by 2050?

 

[Akasa]

China is currently the world's 2nd most powerful nation

 

[StingRoy]

There is a difference between 2nd largest economy and 2nd most powerful nation... and I think the article points to the later.

Good luck China... with greater power comes greater responsibilities. I want to see China work in this direction and act as an anchor to Asian solidarity. Resolve all the disputes amicably and earn this respect.

 

[CardSharp]

You'll find that the Chinese government is a lot more conservative in the estimates of its own power compared to western writers. China's own goal as stated by the government is to become a middle power by 2050, on par in development with countries like Germany.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Militarily Russia is stronger and economically China has just passed Japan. I think the greatest challenge to China's rise comes from within. Social problems (widening income gap) and corruption must be addressed in the coming decade or we may end up in worse shape than the Soviet Union.

 

[no_name]

2nd most powerful nation or whatever is just a place holder. Countries work together through diplomacy and not one to one comparison. Grab the head of ox and the whole body moves. Even if one is the most powerful one cannot just go around dictating what one wants.

But it does seems there is still a long way to go in terms of talents and competitiveness in general. If per capita is the comparison the CCP is not too conservative in its estimates. But I think in the end the situation will improve faster than what they predicted. What was their prediction back in 1970s for 2010's china ?

 

[CardSharp]

2nd most powerful nation or whatever is just a place holder. Countries work together through diplomacy and not one to one comparison. Grab the head of ox and the whole body moves. Even if one is the most powerful one cannot just go around dictating what one wants.

But it does seems there is still a long way to go in terms of talents and competitiveness in general. If per capita is the comparison the CCP is not too conservative in its estimates. But I think in the end the situation will improve faster than what they predicted. What was their prediction back in 1970s for 2010's china ?

If we are going by a per-capital comparison, 2050 would be very optimistic. If China can reach anything resembling parity on a per-capita basis, as a nation it would be 2 or 3 times more powerful than the US.

 

[no_name]

US have alot of potentials. China went through crap from 1850-1950 but still made a rerival. China's population back then is comparable to US population now. The US have stumbled in my opinion but there remains ability for them to pick themselves back together povided the top have political willls. US have very good strategic locations and still lots of room for growth if managed properly.

I have doubts that even major setbacks will keep US down for long. (long as in historical time). China and US are major competitors - and maybe even likely for hundreds of years to come.

Don't think that US will fade away anytime than say India will. They are here for long term and foreign policy should be planned with farsight.

 

[xdrive]

China is currently the world's 2nd most powerful nation

No, having alot of money does not = powerful

China has the 2nd biggest economy, but isn't the 2nd most powerful,

 

[siegecrossbow]

US have alot of potentials. China went through crap from 1850-1950 but still made a rerival. China's population back then is comparable to US population now. The US have stumbled in my opinion but there remains ability for them to pick themselves back together povided the top have political willls. US have very good strategic locations and still lots of room for growth if managed properly.

I have doubts that even major setbacks will keep US down for long. (long as in historical time). China and US are major competitors - and maybe even likely for hundreds of years to come.

Don't think that US will fade away anytime than say India will. They are here for long term and foreign polity should be planned with farsight.

As long as the United States continue to attract the brightest and most talented people from the rest of the world she will remain on top technologically. Technological innovations create new jobs and new jobs bring in cash... What China needs to do now is to reverse the braindrain.

 

[CardSharp]

US have alot of potentials. China went through crap from 1850-1950 but still made a rerival. China's population back then is comparable to US population now. The US have stumbled in my opinion but there remains ability for them to pick themselves back together povided the top have political willls. US have very good strategic locations and still lots of room for growth if managed properly.

I have doubts that even major setbacks will keep US down for long. (long as in historical time). China and US are major competitors - and maybe even likely for hundreds of years to come.

Don't think that US will fade away anytime than say India will. They are here for long term and foreign polity should be planned with farsight.

I won't under-estimate the ability of the US to renew itself but I see it's political and economic atmosphere both on a downward trajectory right now. It seems like a country uncertain about its future (contrast this with China and its sense of purpose)

 

[Akasa]

No, having alot of money does not = powerful

China has the 2nd biggest economy, but isn't the 2nd most powerful,

Most analysts (including ones on the news and Wikipedia) all agree that China is the world's 2nd most powerful country.

China also has the world's largest army and world's 3rd most advanced military.

But economy decides everything. With an economy, a nation could have a large military, large companies, etc.

Economy is the key. Everything else are by-products.

 

[below_freezing]

I won't under-estimate the ability of the US to renew itself but I see it's political and economic atmosphere both on a downward trajectory right now. It seems like a country uncertain about its future (contrast this with China and its sense of purpose)

I see the US heading towards civil war and collapse. See, the US "strength" is an illusion. It is a military empire held together by 2 things alone: military strength, and the prospect of making easy money, with the 2nd being its primary attractor for others and the first discouraging any dissidents from armed rebellion.

As soon as the US is no longer able to provide an environment for people to make easy money in, it will crumble like a deck of cards. Who would have thought in 1920 that the mighty British Empire, the one which covered 1/4 of the globe, had a navy that controlled 3 oceans and whose industrial might seemed unmatchable, would be reduced to dust 30 years later?

US right now is not even close to what Britain was in 1920. It was like that 10 years ago.

 

[Awesome]

In pure 1 on 1 combat, it seems highly doubtful that any other nation has a chance of besting China.

Being a freakishly strong economy and an advanced military already puts them at a league where they can take on anyone.