Turkey's Wrong Bet on Syria

Turkey's Wrong Bet on Syria
by Burak Bekdil
July 1, 2015 at 4:00 am

Turkey's Wrong Bet on Syria

• Today, instead of the free movement of labor and capital, there is, around the border area, the free movement of bombs and bullets.
  
• Ankara considers the real security threat from Syria as not the jihadists, but the secular Kurds who fight the jihadists.
  
• Turkey has worked so hard to create a "Peshawar" (Afghanistan) across its border with Syria -- hoping instead to create a Muslim Brotherhood zone.
  

It was supposed to be Turkish gambit: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's days in power were numbered; the Nusayri (Alawite) man would be toppled by Syria's Sunni majority in a popular revolt. The Sunni majority would set up in Damascus a Muslim Brotherhood type of regime that would be subservient to Ankara, and Turkey's southern border with Syria would be now be a borderless Sunni "Schengen" zone; cross border trade would flourish with the free movement of labor and capital. Peace would prevail along the 900-km border, and Turkish and Syrian Sunni supremacists would advance their agenda in the not-always-so-Sunni lands of the Middle East.

Today, instead of the free movement of labor and capital, there is, around the border area, the free movement of bombs and bullets. Turkey's miscalculated foreign policy on Syria has led to the creation of a neighboring Peshawar (Afghanistan) across its border.

Turkey's Islamist rulers were unhappy with Assad as their neighbor. Their efforts to unseat Assad have dramatically resulted in creating even less pleasant neighbors: an unknown number of jihadist groups, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Kurdish militants fighting to create an autonomous enclave.

Instead of a predictable Assad, the Turkish gambit has resulted in having as next-door neighbors an assortment of unpredictable, violent and alien groups too unwieldy to keep under control.

After the Syrian Kurdish militia, PYD -- which has links to the Turkey-based PKK, the outlawed Kurdish group that has fought a violent war for an independent Kurdish state since 1984 -- took over from ISIS the northern Syrian town of Tel Abyad, Ankara did not know if this was good or bad news. For Turkey, ISIS is "officially" a terrorist organization. But it is an open secret that Ankara has supported ISIS in its campaign for the downfall of Assad and the formation in Syria of an Islamist regime.




Hundred of Syrian Kurds gathered along the border with Turkey in the hope of crossing over, as Kurdish militias battled ISIS in nearby Tel Abyad, June 13, 2015. (Image source: Reuters video screenshot)


Immediately after Tel Abyad fell into the hands of Kurds in late June, ISIS jihadists staged bomb attacks, killing over 200 Kurds in Kobane, a Kurdish stronghold in northern Syria.

Figen Yuksekdag, a leader of Turkey's pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP), said that, "There is a high probability that Ankara facilitated the attack." She added that Turkey has for years supported ISIS. Turkey's government vehemently denies that.

But, with or without any Turkish involvement in the Kobane attack, the "official Turkey" reveals where it positions itself in the multiple-party warfare in Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said it in very clear, loud words: "We will never allow the establishment of a [Kurdish] state in Syria's north and our south. We will continue our fight in this regard no matter what it costs... They want to complete the operation to change the demographic structure of the region. We will not turn a blind eye to this."

Once again, Turkey's threat perceptions are deeply divergent from its Western allies'. Ankara considers the real security threat from Syria as not the jihadists, but the secular Kurds who fight the jihadists. There are reports that the government has ordered the military to prepare for cross-border operations in order to destroy the Kurdish enclave -- siding, therefore, with ISIS, which also wants to destroy the emerging Kurdish enclave in northern Syria.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that any cross-border operation into Syria would be discussed at a meeting, which took place June 29, of the National Security Council. After the four-hour meeting, a statement from the Council said that the efforts aimed at a demographic change in Syria [in favor of Kurds] were worrisome.

Once again, the Turks openly tell the world that they view the secular Kurds more of a security threat than the jihadists.

The Turkish military, generally known for its hawkish stance on the Kurdish issue, is surprisingly (and realistically) opposed to a cross-border adventure to smash the Kurdish enclave. A senior general told this author on June 25: "We have warned the government about possible costs [of such an operation]. If they give us orders for an operation, supported with perfect domestic and international legitimacy, we will act. In any case the government should be responsible for any breach of domestic or international law, and/or for the political consequences."

This means that the Turkish government is preparing for an illegitimate military operation in Syria, although it probably will fail to initiate it for legal and logistical reasons. Against whom would the Turkish army be fighting in such a deeply contested territory? Who are its friends and foes? How would a cross-border operation be logistically supported? How would the ruling AKP party justify Turkish casualties, especially at a time when it is trying to compromise and form a coalition government after it lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 in June 7 elections?

Turkey has worked so hard to create a "Peshawar" across its border with Syria -- hoping instead to create a Muslim Brotherhood zone. It has its own cross-border "Peshawar" now. It just does not know how to deal with it.

Burak bekdil is a number one pic....

BS propaganda. Trying to make Turks into devils and the Kurds into heroes. F that. Turkey has fought a 30 year long war against terrorists, and has every RIGHT to defend it's borders from becoming a terrorist hell hole. Sure, Turkey did a lot of wrong by aiding Sunni extremist terrorists, but there is NO evidence Turkey helped Daesh. Also that BS that Daesh use Turkey as a staging ground for attacking the Kurds in Syria. You f-king noses would love for Turkey to be broken up, to create your second zio-stan, but it's just not going to happen.

oh no not Bokdil again.. close this threat its waste of harddisk space..

@Solomon2

Why do you insist on posting that non entity Burak Bekdils articles. We know he's a hired mouthpiece for Zionist scum like you. Sod off

bokdil and solomon are sisters, comes just shit

TheGrim said:

@Solomon2

Why do you insist on posting that non entity Burak Bekdils articles. We know he's a hired mouthpiece for Zionist scum like you. Sod off

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I don't know about the "hired mouthpiece" bit. I posted them for education - mine! Can someone counter his arguments? If not, why shouldn't they be accepted?

AYDIN DOGAN Comes from a Little town Gümüshane, he is a slave of the zionistic and DEEP German Media Lobby , he had a litlle construction Company end of the 1970s in Türkiye. Then he raised up to a media Giant. How ? Did he commisinioned drugs or weapons ? NO ! He sold his SOUL !

Pakistan also made very bad bet in Afghanistan by supporting the Talibans.

Latest News in Türkiye say that there is great Military movement at this moment . This night Batallions of the 4. Commando Brigade was moved from Tunceli to Gaziantep. All soldiers are professional soldiers not compulsory soldiers. Interesting that Russian Prime Minister and Syrian Prime Minister Muallim said together, that they would like to see Türkiye in the Alliance against Terrorism. Türkiye has one red line - 325.000 Bayir Bucak Türkmens, living in the MARE corridor. They are Oguz Türks and defended in ancient times Jerusalem heroic against the Christian crusaders ! PKK and PYD Propaganda say that it was only Sultan Selahaddin Eyubi, but that is only half of the truth !
Selahattin was influenced from the Selcuks and his father was commander of Selcuk Emir Zengi. Some sources say he was Selcuk (Türk) ethnicity and joined and organized kurdish Clans. If Türkmens are in risk of genocide Türkiye will wait no second and intervene.

Update : Also Batallions of Kayseri Air Brigade and Batallions of Bolu Mountain Brigade are moved to the frontier. They say no compulsory soldiers, all experienced professionals. Creme de la creme.
That Sounds not good, if they are moved , we can expect Action. Exact These troop composition operated with Special Forces in Northern Irak in Operation Steel and cleaned the territory from estimated 3000 terrorists. Officialy 700 of them were killed and 70 captured, rest escaped to Barzani and Talabani territory. 65 of our soldiers were killed in Action.

Possible Scenario , if DAES or PYD move west over the Euphrat the Operation will begin !

When Analyzing the Pictures we can see that the spearhead will be M60 tank Versions and 155 mm Firtina Howitzers. Multiple Rocket Launhers and motorized 120 mm Mortars.
They are enough for Terrorists in that Region.

I believe that Leopards in Kilis will stay in Alarm state, if Syrian Presidential Guard armoured Division the last effectice Force of Esad should try to intervene stupidly with T-72s to Haleppo direction, Leopards would attack immediately.
Close Air Support for the ground troops with Ataks and Cobras.

UAV's and AEWs will be in the air , airforce will attack Syrian AA sites, if they will try to intervene.

I hope they won't otherwise it would not only an ANTI-Terrorist Action but real war.

Resources : Reuters, Spiegel, Turkish Media

Turkey's fears regarding Kurds are genuine. Kurdish have a nationalist movement. if it succeeds in Syria, it will deeply affect Turkey's east where majority population is Kurdish.

In the backdrop of Kurdish nationalists of Turkish origin seeking and struggling for their national identity, Turk fear is legitimate.

With so much chaos in Syria and situation fluid, not sure if deployment of troops will have any measurable success.

Solomon2 said:

I don't know about the "hired mouthpiece" bit. I posted them for education - mine! Can someone counter his arguments? If not, why shouldn't they be accepted?

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His arguments are driven only with the desire of making Turkey look like terror sponsoring,3rd world banana republic. It's also a known fact he keeps traveling to Israel because he has connections there. His sole purpose is to misrepresent Turkey and muddle the facts to fit his narrative. Either diversify the sources of your "education" or spare us this stupid articles which no one takes seriously in Turkey anymore.

Türkiye has done eveything for his ethnic Kurdish but Turkish citizens. Kurdish TV channesl, Schools and more. Türkiye accepted 1 Million refugees when Saddam poisoned them with Sarin In Halapdscha, Türkiye helps in the construction of the autonomous Kurd Region of Irak. It is not a Kurdish Dream ! It is a dream of kurdish extrememists provoced from some hostile minded countries. If Kurds divide and occupy the North of Syria up to the Meditarennean , they will do ethnic cleansing, cause the Region is the Homeland of Arabs and Türkmens. There is adream of a great Kurdistan in parts of Norh Iran, North Irak and North Syria with Pipelines to Mediterannean. It will be a strong ally for Israel, cause some sources also say "Barzani Clan" is Jewish. But the relevant factor is the plan of the US "Great Middle East", they want to Change all boarders, divide and rule. This plan was propagated by Ministry of State Condoleeza Rice.