Zardari fights back, plots counter-coup?
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fatman17
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Zardari gets 24-hr ultimatum to end deadlock-Pakistan-World-The Times of India
13 Mar 2009, 1325 hrs IST, Times Now
Pakistan army and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani have asked President Asif Ali Zardari to go if he does not accept a new deal hatched by them in consultation with foreign powers.
The new political deal, backed by Washington, London and the army establishment, has quietly been conveyed to Pakistan PM Gilani, to bring down the political temperature in the country.
As part of the deal, the PM has been asked to immediately convince Zardari to demonstrate the flexibility required to break the present deadlock, before the 'Long March' reaches Islamabad.
Gilani has reportedly been given 24 hours to convince Zardari into agreeing to the new political and constitutional arrangement, as further delay will not produce any positive results for the political forces currently on the warpath.
The ball is now firmly in the court of President Zardari, who has to take a decision swiftly on endorsing the agreement brokered by powerful international actors.
If Zardari does not accept the new deal then:
* Army, foreign powers will be left with no option but to implement 'minus-one formula'
* Presidents office will be completely marginalised, Zardari will be removed
* Gilani will take over as power will be restored to PM office
* Nawaz Sharif's PML(N) will join the cabinet
* Deposed SC chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhary will be reappointed.
Terms of the deal are:
* Pak PM Gilani has been asked to convince Zardari to accept the new political and constitutional arrangement
* The deal also states the removal of Punjab governor Salman Taseer, who is an obstacle to good relations between the PPP and the PML(N)
* Implementation of the new Constitutional package through the Parliament
* The deal also demands the restoration of Supreme Court Justice Ifthikar Chaudhary.
Since March 11, there have been a series of meetings that have shaped this deal.
The Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani met PM Gilani in Islamabad on March 11, where in the ninety minute meeting the former essentially told the latter to set the deal in motion.
On Thursday, the US ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson met former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The reason ostensibly was after Sharif alleged that there was a plot to assassinate him.
Meanwhile, the PM has not met the president after he returned from his trip to Dubai. He has however been talking to the President over the phone.
UK foreign secretary David Miliband also telephoned President Asif Ali Zardari to discuss the present situation on Thursday.
13 Mar 2009, 1325 hrs IST, Times Now
Pakistan army and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani have asked President Asif Ali Zardari to go if he does not accept a new deal hatched by them in consultation with foreign powers.
The new political deal, backed by Washington, London and the army establishment, has quietly been conveyed to Pakistan PM Gilani, to bring down the political temperature in the country.
As part of the deal, the PM has been asked to immediately convince Zardari to demonstrate the flexibility required to break the present deadlock, before the 'Long March' reaches Islamabad.
Gilani has reportedly been given 24 hours to convince Zardari into agreeing to the new political and constitutional arrangement, as further delay will not produce any positive results for the political forces currently on the warpath.
The ball is now firmly in the court of President Zardari, who has to take a decision swiftly on endorsing the agreement brokered by powerful international actors.
If Zardari does not accept the new deal then:
* Army, foreign powers will be left with no option but to implement 'minus-one formula'
* Presidents office will be completely marginalised, Zardari will be removed
* Gilani will take over as power will be restored to PM office
* Nawaz Sharif's PML(N) will join the cabinet
* Deposed SC chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhary will be reappointed.
Terms of the deal are:
* Pak PM Gilani has been asked to convince Zardari to accept the new political and constitutional arrangement
* The deal also states the removal of Punjab governor Salman Taseer, who is an obstacle to good relations between the PPP and the PML(N)
* Implementation of the new Constitutional package through the Parliament
* The deal also demands the restoration of Supreme Court Justice Ifthikar Chaudhary.
Since March 11, there have been a series of meetings that have shaped this deal.
The Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani met PM Gilani in Islamabad on March 11, where in the ninety minute meeting the former essentially told the latter to set the deal in motion.
On Thursday, the US ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson met former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The reason ostensibly was after Sharif alleged that there was a plot to assassinate him.
Meanwhile, the PM has not met the president after he returned from his trip to Dubai. He has however been talking to the President over the phone.
UK foreign secretary David Miliband also telephoned President Asif Ali Zardari to discuss the present situation on Thursday.
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fatman17
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Was Kiyani held back from staging coup?
Friday, March 13, 2009
Amidst the rising political unrest in Pakistan, US on Friday (March 13) claimed that it held back the Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Kiyani from intervening in the stand-off in the country.
US Joint Army Chief of Staff Mike Mullen said that he spoke to Kiyani upward of ten times in the last few days to calm him after the Pak chief felt angered in the manner in which the political establishment was behaving.
Mullen said, I have had upwards of ten interactions with Kiyani. He wants to do the right thing for Pakistani. But he is in a very tough spot.
Also in a television interview, Mullen said that he is extermely concerned over the situation in Pakistan.
The situation continues to deteriorate very, very slowly under a political leadership which is very challenged because of the totality of the crisis, Mullen said in an interview with PBS news.
He also said that General Ashfaq Kayani, is committed to a civilian government and doesnt want to take over as his predecessor Musharraf did in 1999.
( This post is from an independent writer. The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and are not endorsed by APakistanNews.Com.)
Friday, March 13, 2009
Amidst the rising political unrest in Pakistan, US on Friday (March 13) claimed that it held back the Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Kiyani from intervening in the stand-off in the country.
US Joint Army Chief of Staff Mike Mullen said that he spoke to Kiyani upward of ten times in the last few days to calm him after the Pak chief felt angered in the manner in which the political establishment was behaving.
Mullen said, I have had upwards of ten interactions with Kiyani. He wants to do the right thing for Pakistani. But he is in a very tough spot.
Also in a television interview, Mullen said that he is extermely concerned over the situation in Pakistan.
The situation continues to deteriorate very, very slowly under a political leadership which is very challenged because of the totality of the crisis, Mullen said in an interview with PBS news.
He also said that General Ashfaq Kayani, is committed to a civilian government and doesnt want to take over as his predecessor Musharraf did in 1999.
( This post is from an independent writer. The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and are not endorsed by APakistanNews.Com.)
Awesome
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I don't think there would be a coup, Kayani would just use a pretty heavy stick and squeeze the President to abandon using unconstitutional orders and let the party with the majority in Punjab form the government.
Mix that with reinstating the deposed judges, and we have effectively solved 90% of the political problem.
Zardari is signatory to the declaration of reinstating the judges within 30 days. I think its been like 300 by now
Mix that with reinstating the deposed judges, and we have effectively solved 90% of the political problem.
Zardari is signatory to the declaration of reinstating the judges within 30 days. I think its been like 300 by now
Ghazi again
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agreed but someone has to do something to get rid of this uncertain situation otherwise history would repeat itself that we dont want
.
AgNoStiC MuSliM
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This is a non sequitur S-2 - if you insist on distorting my argument for the sake of 'point scoring' instead of addressing the argument actually made, then I have no choice but to call your credibility into question.
You will not find me disagreeing that the military coups mounted by the officers of the PA are indicative of a flaw, nor have I at any point suggested that Pakistan is 'as pure as the driven snow' - none of that precludes me from pointing out the flaws in US foreign policy as I, and many others, see them, especially when the impact is negative on those I identify with.
Your nation's flaws have not yet prevented the font of caustic and belittling comments emanating from your 'pen', directed towards Pakistan, have they?
And yet you take umbrage when at the receiving end of the same.
In any case, the thread is not on this issue, so I will move on.
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AgNoStiC MuSliM
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Despite the media's take on Gllani's resolve to go down in history and 'do the right thing' I get a sense of Deja Vu with his yet to materialize 'moral stance'.
Pakistani politicians wringing their hands and hesitating when the moment requires rapid action - the war in 1948 was another.
RabzonKhan
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INSIGHT: Inaction is not an option
Ejaz Haider
March 13, 2009
Beware the Ides of March, said the soothsayer to Julius Caesar. Today, he might have told the politicians to beware the day after Idus Martiae.
Last Wednesday General Ashfaq Kayani met with the prime minister. The army chief is a worried man, as he should be. His troops are spread thin. He is fighting against an elusive enemy; and he is fighting a war for which there is not much public acceptance.
The irreducible minimum he needs is political stability because with stability comes the possibility of a popular buy-in for counter-insurgency. This argument is pegged on the supposition that stability results when disparate political actors develop a non-partisan consensus on some basic issues underpinning national security (I refer to national security in a broad context and not just in terms of national military strategy).
Given the unresolved politico-judicial issues and how they are manifested on the street, Kayani does not have the minimum he needs to fight on a very difficult front.
So, what should he do? Some analysts have asked him to clean up the mess a la General Waheed Kakar, a soft coup, if you will send all of them home and start afresh. Worse advice he could not have got but, given how intelligent he is, fortunately is unlikely to fall for it.
Still, inaction is not an option.
Should he privately read the riot act to Nawaz Sharif, telling him to pull back from the brink? In theory, he can, but wont. Sharif is riding the popular crest and making demands that have wide acceptance among the people. The army cant be seen as doing something that will be perceived as anti-people, especially because it has done so much to distance itself from its former chiefs legacy.
An additional problem with this approach would be that Sharif could go public on any arm-twisting because, backed by the people, he feels secure. Also, Sharif has put much at stake to see his current campaign reach its logical conclusion.
Given both the practical and moral constraints in dealing with Sharif, Kayani has no option but to work the government. He has to secure the Pakistan Peoples Party government because the PPPs many missteps notwithstanding, the party, because of its liberal streak, is still the armys best option as far as the war on terror is concerned.
It is significant that rather than the president, Kayani has chosen to meet with the prime minister at this stage. Has he told Yousaf Raza Gilani that the army would back him if he were to initiate a compromise with the opposition to defuse the current political crisis?
That seems like the only logical course. While it is exaggerated to say there are major differences between the president and the prime minister, let it be said safely that Gilani may not entirely be in step with Asif Zardari on some key issues, including dealing with the Sharifs.
However, Zardari is also Gilanis partys boss. How far can Gilani go in opposing Zardari? An important question it goes beyond just the administrative functioning of the government or even the constitutional arrangement between the president and the prime minister. It relates to the very future of the PPP as a viable political entity.
Zardari and his son are where they are because Ms Benazir Bhutto is no more and, most importantly, because the PPP needs the Bhutto reference point to survive. Zardari is a stretch when it comes to that point of reference but it is the closest the party could get after the assassination of Ms Bhutto especially because Bilawal is years short of a political career.
What do we have here then? The army needs stability; it cant step in overtly even through a soft coup because reinventing the wheel does not necessarily promise greater stability; it cant put the heat on Sharif; it cant do that with Zardari directly; it needs the PPP and the PPP needs Zardari; and yet, inaction will breed more instability and corresponding uncertainty.
What Kayani can do is to try and get the prime minister to signal to Zardari that the current confrontation is not sustainable; that some compromise formula needs to be arrived at to defuse the situation. Of course, the or else qualifier for greater effect would be welcome.
In other words, for both the army and the prime minister, the issue is how to retain Zardari for the sustenance of the PPP while making him largely irrelevant to the functioning of the government. (Incidentally, increasing numbers of people dispute the argument that the PPP really needs Zardari.)
The only way to do this is to (a) defuse the current situation by restoring the remaining judges; (b) lift Governors Rule in Punjab; (c) restore the PMLN government in Lahore; (d) reconstitute the Supreme Court bench to hear the Sharifs appeal; and (e) amend the constitution to create a balance between the powers of the president and of the prime minister (the issue of how that can be done is another debate).
What I have written about Kayanis approach, lest it be misunderstood, is not what Kayani is doing but what I think he is likely to do under the circumstances.
A compromise formula is crucial at this stage.
I was talking to Aziz Khan, one of our most seasoned former diplomats, who was Pakistans ambassador to Kabul, or shall I say to the Taliban since we were the only ones with our neck on that chopping block, discussing the political situation and who could benefit from it. This is what he said:
The Taliban waited in the wings with a Cheshire smile while the warlords and erstwhile commanders fought each other. And then they moved in for the kill. They benefited from inter- and intra-group fighting militarily as well as politically. People thought they [the Taliban] would at least provide some respite from the internecine civil war.
This is a chilling reality, as Aziz Khan pointed out. We are now enacting the same script. They are waiting in the wings while our warlords, the politicians, fight each other and the people remain oblivious to where the real danger lies.
The world considers Pakistan Problem Number 1. Of course, we can tell the world to go to hell, which is what we have been doing so far. Or, we can take the more difficult path of self-reflection, begin to realise what is at stake and get down to saving this country, not because the damned West wants us to but because it is in our interest to do so.
Ejaz Haider is Op-Ed Editor of Daily Times and Consulting Editor of The Friday Times.
Ejaz Haider
March 13, 2009
Beware the Ides of March, said the soothsayer to Julius Caesar. Today, he might have told the politicians to beware the day after Idus Martiae.
Last Wednesday General Ashfaq Kayani met with the prime minister. The army chief is a worried man, as he should be. His troops are spread thin. He is fighting against an elusive enemy; and he is fighting a war for which there is not much public acceptance.
The irreducible minimum he needs is political stability because with stability comes the possibility of a popular buy-in for counter-insurgency. This argument is pegged on the supposition that stability results when disparate political actors develop a non-partisan consensus on some basic issues underpinning national security (I refer to national security in a broad context and not just in terms of national military strategy).
Given the unresolved politico-judicial issues and how they are manifested on the street, Kayani does not have the minimum he needs to fight on a very difficult front.
So, what should he do? Some analysts have asked him to clean up the mess a la General Waheed Kakar, a soft coup, if you will send all of them home and start afresh. Worse advice he could not have got but, given how intelligent he is, fortunately is unlikely to fall for it.
Still, inaction is not an option.
Should he privately read the riot act to Nawaz Sharif, telling him to pull back from the brink? In theory, he can, but wont. Sharif is riding the popular crest and making demands that have wide acceptance among the people. The army cant be seen as doing something that will be perceived as anti-people, especially because it has done so much to distance itself from its former chiefs legacy.
An additional problem with this approach would be that Sharif could go public on any arm-twisting because, backed by the people, he feels secure. Also, Sharif has put much at stake to see his current campaign reach its logical conclusion.
Given both the practical and moral constraints in dealing with Sharif, Kayani has no option but to work the government. He has to secure the Pakistan Peoples Party government because the PPPs many missteps notwithstanding, the party, because of its liberal streak, is still the armys best option as far as the war on terror is concerned.
It is significant that rather than the president, Kayani has chosen to meet with the prime minister at this stage. Has he told Yousaf Raza Gilani that the army would back him if he were to initiate a compromise with the opposition to defuse the current political crisis?
That seems like the only logical course. While it is exaggerated to say there are major differences between the president and the prime minister, let it be said safely that Gilani may not entirely be in step with Asif Zardari on some key issues, including dealing with the Sharifs.
However, Zardari is also Gilanis partys boss. How far can Gilani go in opposing Zardari? An important question it goes beyond just the administrative functioning of the government or even the constitutional arrangement between the president and the prime minister. It relates to the very future of the PPP as a viable political entity.
Zardari and his son are where they are because Ms Benazir Bhutto is no more and, most importantly, because the PPP needs the Bhutto reference point to survive. Zardari is a stretch when it comes to that point of reference but it is the closest the party could get after the assassination of Ms Bhutto especially because Bilawal is years short of a political career.
What do we have here then? The army needs stability; it cant step in overtly even through a soft coup because reinventing the wheel does not necessarily promise greater stability; it cant put the heat on Sharif; it cant do that with Zardari directly; it needs the PPP and the PPP needs Zardari; and yet, inaction will breed more instability and corresponding uncertainty.
What Kayani can do is to try and get the prime minister to signal to Zardari that the current confrontation is not sustainable; that some compromise formula needs to be arrived at to defuse the situation. Of course, the or else qualifier for greater effect would be welcome.
In other words, for both the army and the prime minister, the issue is how to retain Zardari for the sustenance of the PPP while making him largely irrelevant to the functioning of the government. (Incidentally, increasing numbers of people dispute the argument that the PPP really needs Zardari.)
The only way to do this is to (a) defuse the current situation by restoring the remaining judges; (b) lift Governors Rule in Punjab; (c) restore the PMLN government in Lahore; (d) reconstitute the Supreme Court bench to hear the Sharifs appeal; and (e) amend the constitution to create a balance between the powers of the president and of the prime minister (the issue of how that can be done is another debate).
What I have written about Kayanis approach, lest it be misunderstood, is not what Kayani is doing but what I think he is likely to do under the circumstances.
A compromise formula is crucial at this stage.
I was talking to Aziz Khan, one of our most seasoned former diplomats, who was Pakistans ambassador to Kabul, or shall I say to the Taliban since we were the only ones with our neck on that chopping block, discussing the political situation and who could benefit from it. This is what he said:
The Taliban waited in the wings with a Cheshire smile while the warlords and erstwhile commanders fought each other. And then they moved in for the kill. They benefited from inter- and intra-group fighting militarily as well as politically. People thought they [the Taliban] would at least provide some respite from the internecine civil war.
This is a chilling reality, as Aziz Khan pointed out. We are now enacting the same script. They are waiting in the wings while our warlords, the politicians, fight each other and the people remain oblivious to where the real danger lies.
The world considers Pakistan Problem Number 1. Of course, we can tell the world to go to hell, which is what we have been doing so far. Or, we can take the more difficult path of self-reflection, begin to realise what is at stake and get down to saving this country, not because the damned West wants us to but because it is in our interest to do so.
Ejaz Haider is Op-Ed Editor of Daily Times and Consulting Editor of The Friday Times.
fatman17
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I don't think there would be a coup, Kayani would just use a pretty heavy stick and squeeze the President to abandon using unconstitutional orders and let the party with the majority in Punjab form the government.
Mix that with reinstating the deposed judges, and we have effectively solved 90% of the political problem.
Zardari is signatory to the declaration of reinstating the judges within 30 days. I think its been like 300 by now
reminds me of zia's 90 days which became ~3,800 days!!!
Super Falcon
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for me zardari is not anymore president for me he is the biggest ever liar in the world been born he also broken his own commitments but also of Shaheed Mauhtramma Banazir bhutto he is enemy of nation i think he is far far ahead of musharaf
his commitments which been broken
1. Restoration of judges
2.Tv channels never will banned In PPP gov
3. Amin faheem to be made PM
4.58/2B will be surrender
i think his days are been counted
he will not remain our president INSHAHALLAH if ALLAH wants
so many PPP members are not happy with zardari
his commitments which been broken
1. Restoration of judges
2.Tv channels never will banned In PPP gov
3. Amin faheem to be made PM
4.58/2B will be surrender
i think his days are been counted
he will not remain our president INSHAHALLAH if ALLAH wants
so many PPP members are not happy with zardari
fatman17
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fast moving political turmoil in the world's new hotspot, Pakistan
by Talha Mujaddidi
OpEdNews.Com Progressive, Tough Liberal News and Opinion
While Zardari, Gillani and rest of the Pakistani politicians were busy going at each other’s throat. Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Kayani spent one week in D.C and elsewhere in U.S meeting top CIA, Pentagon, U.S Military officials and Congressmen. Gen. Kayani is the most influential person at the moment in Pakistan. On Dec 20th 2008, Newsweek mentioned Kayani as the 20th most powerful man in the world. Kayani is not like Musharraf in any way at all at least not until now. Kayani comes from Gujar Khan clan of Punjabi people. For the last one thousand years the most favorite profession of this clan has been military.
Even before the Mughal’s ruled India, Gujars were part of any army that ruled India. Kayani is a deep thinker; he is a very professional soldier, he is media-shy, doesn’t talk much and his 650,000 troops think very highly of him. He is constantly in touch with his troops, often on a daily basis, and he’s constantly in touch with lower level officers and officers on different parts of Pakistani borders. Before being appointed as the Army Chief he was head of the most powerful intelligence agency of Pakistan, the ISI. Kayani has earned high respect of the U.S military commanders not by being complacent in front of them but by showing deep commitment to Pakistani national interests.
Kayani has also been politically correct as far as the Pakistani public is concerned. Kayani was ISI Chief when Musharraf was about to oust Choudary, Kayani politely told his Chief (Musharraf was army chief at that time) that he does not think it is a wise idea, and he will remain neutral in this matter. Kayani had sensed that Musharraf’s decision will result in mass upheaval and eventual downfall of Musharraf. That is precisely what happened. Kayani closed the political wing of the ISI and took ISI out of domestic politics and 2008 elections. So far Army has remained out of Pakistani politics under his rule. There is a lot more that Gen. Kayani has done right since he has been in charge of Pakistani Army but the time for litmus test is going to come soon.
U.S will not support a fast failing and unpopular government. This lesson U.S has learned the hard way in Iran after the revolution there in 1979. U.S will let the Zardari government fall if it does so under the weight of its own incompetence. Plus the fact that the Democrats are now in power in D.C and are not much interested in NRO deal that was brokered between President Musharraf and Benazir under the eyes of Condi Rice, and associates. They would like to deal with a new setup if possible.
The Pakistan Army will not come to support PPP government if it cries for help. This is basically because the public opinion is against this government. Also, neither, the Pakistan Army nor U.S like Nawaz. U.S doesn’t like Nawaz for his close links with Saudis. But Clinton and his wife, madam Secretary, may still have a soft corner for Nawaz since he agreed to Bill Clinton’s July 4th 1999 demand to remove Pakistani troops from Kargil region where Indian and Pakistan were involved in a mini-conflict (the details mentioned in Clinton’s book ‘my life’
. Nawaz is not liked by Pakistan Army for his removal of Gen. Karamat who was Army Chief in 1998, Nawaz’s weak stance on Kargil issue, and Nawaz’s attempt to remove Gen. Musharraf from office on Oct 12th 1999. Surprisingly, Shahbaz the younger of the two brothers is still liked by the Pakistani public and even might be acceptable to Pakistan Army. Then General Musharraf mentions in his book that he liked Shahbaz (the reason being that Shahbaz was against Nawaz removing Musharraf and was not on board the decision to remove Musharraf in Oct 1999) and had offered Shahbaz to become PM after his coup. But Shahbaz did not want to betray his brother.
This political tug of war will result in a complete stalemate. The public is fast growing sick of this U.S imposed sham democracy and will demand removal of the government. At that time Gen. Kayani can ask President Zardari and PM Gillani to resign and go home. This has happened before in 1993, when Gen. Kakkar (Army Chief at that time), asked President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and PM Nawaz to resign and they had no choice but to oblige.
This all may sound too un-democratic to Western readers but when you have such corrupt and pathetic sham-democratic, puppet governments like we have had in Pakistan, then you welcome Army take over and martial laws. I still remember Oct 12th 1999 clearly, when Gen. Musharraf took over, people distributed sweets in all cities of Pakistan. Sadly the happiness was short lived, and Musharraf collapsed under U.S post 9/11 demands. If Zardari does not resign from office, the Army will have no other option but to carry out a coup and the Pakistani army needs just twenty minutes to complete a coup. All coups in Pakistan have been bloodless coups. The army can then setup an interim government and go back to barracks; the interim government can set a date for new elections. A new plan is also being discussed by influential quarters (retired Generals, bureaucrats, think tank experts, etc) in Islamabad, and that is called ‘Bangladesh Model’. This involves setting up a technocrat based government for at least two years if not more, and banning all political activity until certain political reforms are completed.
The last card left in Zardari’s hand is the removal of Gen. Kayani. This will surely spell disaster if he does so and even if Gen. Kayani accepts his removal after few months, Zardari will try to oust another Army Chief, and there eventually will be a coup.
In Washington D.C I am sure that Kayani and U.S authorities must have agreed to one of the options discussed. But the question is what does the U.S want to achieve in Pakistan in future? There are two ideologies still working in the U.S. Both are mothered by foreign mothers, impregnated by the father of U.S. imperialism. One is the hard-line ideology that Pakistan will become a failed state and will result in breakup of Pakistan, and terrorism will take over Pakistani nuclear weapons. The other mindset is that of gradual "neutralizing" of Pakistan for an imperialist agenda. Pakistan should remain intact but gradually the entire region Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India will be contained, neutralized and pacified if Father Washington has his way. At the moment U.S is giving mixed signals and it’s not clear what exactly will the U.S do with regards to Pakistan’s internal politics? But in April it will be clear when U.S announces its new ‘AfPak’ (Afghanistan and Pakistan) policy.
Two things are clear from all this. Firstly, Pakistan’s domestic politics is about to get messier and bloodier. Secondly, the U.S agenda for Pakistan may be acceptable to the Pakistani ruling elite and to a lessor extent the Pakistani Army, but the 180 million people of Pakistan are just not going to accept it.
Talha is a writer from Pakistan, Talha is wireless communication engineer by profession. Has studied, lived and worked in USA. Talha follows current affairs and history of Middle East and Pakistan.
by Talha Mujaddidi
OpEdNews.Com Progressive, Tough Liberal News and Opinion
While Zardari, Gillani and rest of the Pakistani politicians were busy going at each other’s throat. Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Kayani spent one week in D.C and elsewhere in U.S meeting top CIA, Pentagon, U.S Military officials and Congressmen. Gen. Kayani is the most influential person at the moment in Pakistan. On Dec 20th 2008, Newsweek mentioned Kayani as the 20th most powerful man in the world. Kayani is not like Musharraf in any way at all at least not until now. Kayani comes from Gujar Khan clan of Punjabi people. For the last one thousand years the most favorite profession of this clan has been military.
Even before the Mughal’s ruled India, Gujars were part of any army that ruled India. Kayani is a deep thinker; he is a very professional soldier, he is media-shy, doesn’t talk much and his 650,000 troops think very highly of him. He is constantly in touch with his troops, often on a daily basis, and he’s constantly in touch with lower level officers and officers on different parts of Pakistani borders. Before being appointed as the Army Chief he was head of the most powerful intelligence agency of Pakistan, the ISI. Kayani has earned high respect of the U.S military commanders not by being complacent in front of them but by showing deep commitment to Pakistani national interests.
Kayani has also been politically correct as far as the Pakistani public is concerned. Kayani was ISI Chief when Musharraf was about to oust Choudary, Kayani politely told his Chief (Musharraf was army chief at that time) that he does not think it is a wise idea, and he will remain neutral in this matter. Kayani had sensed that Musharraf’s decision will result in mass upheaval and eventual downfall of Musharraf. That is precisely what happened. Kayani closed the political wing of the ISI and took ISI out of domestic politics and 2008 elections. So far Army has remained out of Pakistani politics under his rule. There is a lot more that Gen. Kayani has done right since he has been in charge of Pakistani Army but the time for litmus test is going to come soon.
U.S will not support a fast failing and unpopular government. This lesson U.S has learned the hard way in Iran after the revolution there in 1979. U.S will let the Zardari government fall if it does so under the weight of its own incompetence. Plus the fact that the Democrats are now in power in D.C and are not much interested in NRO deal that was brokered between President Musharraf and Benazir under the eyes of Condi Rice, and associates. They would like to deal with a new setup if possible.
The Pakistan Army will not come to support PPP government if it cries for help. This is basically because the public opinion is against this government. Also, neither, the Pakistan Army nor U.S like Nawaz. U.S doesn’t like Nawaz for his close links with Saudis. But Clinton and his wife, madam Secretary, may still have a soft corner for Nawaz since he agreed to Bill Clinton’s July 4th 1999 demand to remove Pakistani troops from Kargil region where Indian and Pakistan were involved in a mini-conflict (the details mentioned in Clinton’s book ‘my life’
. Nawaz is not liked by Pakistan Army for his removal of Gen. Karamat who was Army Chief in 1998, Nawaz’s weak stance on Kargil issue, and Nawaz’s attempt to remove Gen. Musharraf from office on Oct 12th 1999. Surprisingly, Shahbaz the younger of the two brothers is still liked by the Pakistani public and even might be acceptable to Pakistan Army. Then General Musharraf mentions in his book that he liked Shahbaz (the reason being that Shahbaz was against Nawaz removing Musharraf and was not on board the decision to remove Musharraf in Oct 1999) and had offered Shahbaz to become PM after his coup. But Shahbaz did not want to betray his brother.This political tug of war will result in a complete stalemate. The public is fast growing sick of this U.S imposed sham democracy and will demand removal of the government. At that time Gen. Kayani can ask President Zardari and PM Gillani to resign and go home. This has happened before in 1993, when Gen. Kakkar (Army Chief at that time), asked President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and PM Nawaz to resign and they had no choice but to oblige.
This all may sound too un-democratic to Western readers but when you have such corrupt and pathetic sham-democratic, puppet governments like we have had in Pakistan, then you welcome Army take over and martial laws. I still remember Oct 12th 1999 clearly, when Gen. Musharraf took over, people distributed sweets in all cities of Pakistan. Sadly the happiness was short lived, and Musharraf collapsed under U.S post 9/11 demands. If Zardari does not resign from office, the Army will have no other option but to carry out a coup and the Pakistani army needs just twenty minutes to complete a coup. All coups in Pakistan have been bloodless coups. The army can then setup an interim government and go back to barracks; the interim government can set a date for new elections. A new plan is also being discussed by influential quarters (retired Generals, bureaucrats, think tank experts, etc) in Islamabad, and that is called ‘Bangladesh Model’. This involves setting up a technocrat based government for at least two years if not more, and banning all political activity until certain political reforms are completed.
The last card left in Zardari’s hand is the removal of Gen. Kayani. This will surely spell disaster if he does so and even if Gen. Kayani accepts his removal after few months, Zardari will try to oust another Army Chief, and there eventually will be a coup.
In Washington D.C I am sure that Kayani and U.S authorities must have agreed to one of the options discussed. But the question is what does the U.S want to achieve in Pakistan in future? There are two ideologies still working in the U.S. Both are mothered by foreign mothers, impregnated by the father of U.S. imperialism. One is the hard-line ideology that Pakistan will become a failed state and will result in breakup of Pakistan, and terrorism will take over Pakistani nuclear weapons. The other mindset is that of gradual "neutralizing" of Pakistan for an imperialist agenda. Pakistan should remain intact but gradually the entire region Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India will be contained, neutralized and pacified if Father Washington has his way. At the moment U.S is giving mixed signals and it’s not clear what exactly will the U.S do with regards to Pakistan’s internal politics? But in April it will be clear when U.S announces its new ‘AfPak’ (Afghanistan and Pakistan) policy.
Two things are clear from all this. Firstly, Pakistan’s domestic politics is about to get messier and bloodier. Secondly, the U.S agenda for Pakistan may be acceptable to the Pakistani ruling elite and to a lessor extent the Pakistani Army, but the 180 million people of Pakistan are just not going to accept it.
Talha is a writer from Pakistan, Talha is wireless communication engineer by profession. Has studied, lived and worked in USA. Talha follows current affairs and history of Middle East and Pakistan.
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General Ashfaq Kayani pushes feuding leaders close to a deal
Zahid Hussain in Islamabad and Jeremy Page in Lahore
The Pakistani Army intervened yesterday to defuse a stand-off between the country’s political leaders that had threatened to undermine the fight against Islamist militants, and even force a return to military rule.
President Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, the opposition leader, appeared to be reaching a deal brokered by General Ashfaq Kayani, the army chief, in his first foray into national politics since civilian rule was restored a year ago Mr Zardari has made a big concession by agreeing to lift presidential rule of Punjab – Mr Sharif’s political heartland – and remove a legal bar against his holding public office. Aides said that the details were being worked out but the President would probably allow Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N) to choose a new chief minister of the province. General Kayani negotiated the truce in several rounds of meetings with the President and Yousuf Raza Gilani, the Prime Minister, as nationwide protests by lawyers and opposition activists continued for a second day.
A senior government official told The Times that General Kayani had warned the civilian leaders to take immediate steps to pull the nuclear-armed nation back from the brink of chaos.
His intervention came a day after Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, and David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, spoke to Mr Zardari by telephone. American and British diplomats have also held a series of meetings with government and opposition leaders to try to prevent another military coup in a country that has been ruled by the army for more than half its 61-year history.
The army has tried to stay out of politics since Pervez Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999, was forced to step down, first as army chief and then as President in August last year.
General Kayani has, however, been sucked in by the deteriorating security situation, which threatens to undermine the army’s efforts to fight al-Qaeda and Taleban militants on Pakistan’s northwestern border with Afghanistan.
President Zardari is reluctant to accept the Opposition’s demand for the unconditional reinstatement of Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, the Chief Justice sacked by Mr Musharraf in early 2007.
Lawyers and opposition activists have been campaigning for Mr Chaudhry and other sacked judges for 18 months, and are trying to stage a “long march” in protest, ending in Islamabad on Monday.
Police stopped about 200 lawyers in a convoy of cars and buses from entering Sindh province en route to Islamabad yesterday, witnesses said. No arrests were made but the protesters vowed to find another way to get to the capital.
Mr Sharif said that the protests would proceed even if the authorities put him under house arrest but he left the way open for reconciliation. “I have no personal enmity with Zardari,” he told a private television station.
“If he shuns vested interest and sincerely fulfils his promises to reinstate judges and restore an independent judiciary, I am ready to cooperate with him.”
Times Online | News and Views from The Times and Sunday Times
Zahid Hussain in Islamabad and Jeremy Page in Lahore
The Pakistani Army intervened yesterday to defuse a stand-off between the country’s political leaders that had threatened to undermine the fight against Islamist militants, and even force a return to military rule.
President Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, the opposition leader, appeared to be reaching a deal brokered by General Ashfaq Kayani, the army chief, in his first foray into national politics since civilian rule was restored a year ago Mr Zardari has made a big concession by agreeing to lift presidential rule of Punjab – Mr Sharif’s political heartland – and remove a legal bar against his holding public office. Aides said that the details were being worked out but the President would probably allow Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N) to choose a new chief minister of the province. General Kayani negotiated the truce in several rounds of meetings with the President and Yousuf Raza Gilani, the Prime Minister, as nationwide protests by lawyers and opposition activists continued for a second day.
A senior government official told The Times that General Kayani had warned the civilian leaders to take immediate steps to pull the nuclear-armed nation back from the brink of chaos.
His intervention came a day after Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, and David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, spoke to Mr Zardari by telephone. American and British diplomats have also held a series of meetings with government and opposition leaders to try to prevent another military coup in a country that has been ruled by the army for more than half its 61-year history.
The army has tried to stay out of politics since Pervez Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999, was forced to step down, first as army chief and then as President in August last year.
General Kayani has, however, been sucked in by the deteriorating security situation, which threatens to undermine the army’s efforts to fight al-Qaeda and Taleban militants on Pakistan’s northwestern border with Afghanistan.
President Zardari is reluctant to accept the Opposition’s demand for the unconditional reinstatement of Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, the Chief Justice sacked by Mr Musharraf in early 2007.
Lawyers and opposition activists have been campaigning for Mr Chaudhry and other sacked judges for 18 months, and are trying to stage a “long march” in protest, ending in Islamabad on Monday.
Police stopped about 200 lawyers in a convoy of cars and buses from entering Sindh province en route to Islamabad yesterday, witnesses said. No arrests were made but the protesters vowed to find another way to get to the capital.
Mr Sharif said that the protests would proceed even if the authorities put him under house arrest but he left the way open for reconciliation. “I have no personal enmity with Zardari,” he told a private television station.
“If he shuns vested interest and sincerely fulfils his promises to reinstate judges and restore an independent judiciary, I am ready to cooperate with him.”
Times Online | News and Views from The Times and Sunday Times
Honeslty... Sharif is not different. We should both prosecute them and introduce democracy as it should be. Bangladeshi model with technocrats for the next 4 years and max effort for education and democracy.
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Zardari's political career may be over (under any impartial electoral system) given how despised he is now across Pakistan, but I doubt prosecuting Nawaz will yield anything.
Musharraf already tried that - his party and supporters will not forsake him, there will continue to be political tensions over any such 'prosecution', perpetuating instability, and eventually another 'comeback' will be in the making.
The only way forward is to allow him a fall from grace ala Zardari if he has not learned his lessons from the past and his peers, to allow him to lead his party and lead in the interests of Pakistan if he has changed, or for his death.
Prosecution and imprisonment will not work.
P.S: Moving thread to political affairs section.
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