Young Taiwanese need to read Western history on secession and reunification

[Aepsilons]

This is my pure speculation and opinion. I am no expert but I still like to share my piece.

If the DPP is stupid enough to provoke China, I would think it would last maximum one week. Forget all the talk from the Americans. They would not come to help Taiwan. Why? Because it would mean sacrificing a couple of aircraft carrier groups and many American lives. This war would only be localised to Taiwan as any escalation would have terrible consequences for both China, US and the rest of the world.

But let's take this scenario a little bit further.

Assuming China is not successful the first time (which is highly unlikely), China can attack the second or third time over the next few months. I don't think the Americans are able to sustain that. If they do, they won't have too many aircraft carrier groups left. (They need them to cause trouble in other parts of the world, i.e. Middle East, North Africa and Latin America ).

Now back to reality:

Today, whether Taiwan likes it or not, Taiwan is being slowly "absorbed and enmeshed" with China's economy. The Chinese leaders know that, they will just sit and wait. There is no need to do anything rash. For every passing day, China is getting stronger economically, politically and militarily. No need to worry about Taiwan, there are other more important things to worry about.

Key Fact:
Thirty years ago, it was all talk from China about attacking Taiwan.
Today, thirty years later, it is all talk from America about supporting Taiwan.

Politics is politics and is never static, the assymetry and variability of politics is seen with the British and Portuguese return of Hong Kong and Macau, respectively, to the People's Republic of China in the late 1990s. What does China gain with continued economic integration with Taiwan? The bilateral trade between PRC and Taiwan reached over $168 Billion (USD) in 2012, now the current bilateral trade is nearing $200 Billion (USD) per annum. To give you a perspective, the bilateral trade between China and Taiwan is more than the combined economies of Brunei and Vietnam.

Request Rejected


China benefits , clearly, on the current One China Platform and the current relationship Beijing has with Taipei. Despite US alignment in Asia, this does not negate the economic integration , and the eventuality of integration in time. Can the US impede the nearly $200 Billion trade Taiwan and China have? Can any power stop said cultural and economic integration? Absolutely not. Why should China seize Taiwan by force when she already enjoys a massive economic relationship with Taiwan? All China has to do is merely wait , eventually, Taiwan will be joined. If it takes 3 to 5 decades, who cares. What is half a century to China, a Civilization state that is over 5 millennia. A century is a blink in the lifetime of China.

yes quite impressive, anyway full integration is just a matter of time. And time we have while our muscles are expanding rapidly.

I doubt China will seize Taiwan militarily. It did not do such to Macau (owned by the Portuguese for close to 5 centuries), and Hong Kong (owned by the British for close to 2 centuries). Did the PLA send tanks to seize the Pearl of the Orient (HK) ? No. She (HK) was handed to the Chinese on a platter in '97. No casualties.

Taiwan, will be reunited. Even if it takes 5 decades to a century, it will rejoin with the Chinese Motherland. Hong kong and Macau is an example of that natural , historical inevitability. America's power will not last for ever, and it will not control the region in a century's time. When China's power exceeds that of America's, expect policy changes in the region.

 

[terranMarine]

Politics is politics and is never static, the assymetry and variability of politics is seen with the British and Portuguese return of Hong Kong and Macau, respectively, to the People's Republic of China in the late 1990s. What does China gain with continued economic integration with Taiwan? The bilateral trade between PRC and Taiwan reached over $168 Billion (USD) in 2012, now the current bilateral trade is nearing $200 Billion (USD) per annum. To give you a perspective, the bilateral trade between China and Taiwan is more than the combined economies of Brunei and Vietnam.

Request Rejected


China benefits , clearly, on the current One China Platform and the current relationship Beijing has with Taipei. Despite US alignment in Asia, this does not negate the economic integration , and the eventuality of integration in time. Can the US impede the nearly $200 Billion trade Taiwan and China have? Can any power stop said cultural and economic integration? Absolutely not. Why should China seize Taiwan by force when she already enjoys a massive economic relationship with Taiwan? All China has to do is merely wait , eventually, Taiwan will be joined. If it takes 3 to 5 decades, who cares. What is half a century to China, a Civilization state that is over 5 millennia. A century is a blink in the lifetime of China.



I doubt China will seize Taiwan militarily. It did not do such to Macau (owned by the Portuguese for close to 5 centuries), and Hong Kong (owned by the British for close to 2 centuries). Did the PLA send tanks to seize the Pearl of the Orient (HK) ? No. She (HK) was handed to the Chinese on a platter in '97. No casualties.

Taiwan, will be reunited. Even if it takes 5 decades to a century, it will rejoin with the Chinese Motherland. Hong kong and Macau is an example of that natural , historical inevitability. America's power will not last for ever, and it will not control the region in a century's time. When China's power exceeds that of America's, expect policy changes in the region.

China had an agreement regarding HK, Portugal's fragile economic situation led them to decide to return all colonies.
Taiwan is different, and whether China will restart the war depends on Taiwan. The last crisis was provoked by Taiwan, China would have entered war if US hadn't told them not to make matter worst. Make no mistake we entered the Korean War and Vietnam War back in those days. If the red line is crossed you can bet on it China will fight. Hence nothing will happen as long TW remain sane

 

[Aepsilons]

China had an agreement regarding HK, Portugal's fragile economic situation led them to decide to return all colonies.
Taiwan is different, and whether China will restart the war depends on Taiwan. The last crisis was provoked by Taiwan, China would have entered war if US hadn't told them not to make matter worst. Make no mistake we entered the Korean War and Vietnam War back in those days. If the red line is crossed you can bet on it China will fight. Hence nothing will happen as long remain sanity.

The stability and prosperity of Greater East Asian region shall not be jeopardized for the sake of pretentious drivel of a few rabble-rousers. Make no mistake about it; as much as the Japan-US Alliance is affixed on deflecting enemies, the Nationalists that control the Japanese Government will not adopt any policies that would lead to direct confrontation with the Chinese.

Japan has a very deep relationship with the Government in Taiwan (KMT and other minority parties), economic vibrancy is a keystone of our foreign policy and foreign relations with Taiwan and China. A military operation would not only affect Chinese-Taiwanese-Japanese-South Korean economic trade, but would lead to the untold deaths of millions of civilians. A catastrophe that neither on any side ; Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese, South Korean, would want in our region.

East Asia, as a whole, have risen from the triviality of war and border conflict. The entire Greater East Asian Region is too heavily integrated , a regional block whose combined economic weight exceeds $17.85 Trillion (USD).

Why should Greater East Asia war with itself when we are already integrated. Only detractors and regions that are envious of Greater East Asia would wish a war in our region. Remember that. Only those who are jealous of the unprecedented success of Greater East Asia would want our region to be at war. Remember that.

 

[ahojunk]

They even have to accommodate China by using "Chinese Taipei" in the Olympics and as a joining member of AIIB.

Taiwan applied to be a member of AIIB via China's Taiwan Affair Office, which then passed Taiwan's letter of intent to join and passed it to the AIIB's interim secretariat.

I don't think there were any protests from any other country.

Unfortunately for Taiwan, this is the current political reality.

 

[terranMarine]

The stability and prosperity of Greater East Asian region shall not be jeopardized for the sake of pretentious drivel of a few rabble-rousers. Make no mistake about it; as much as the Japan-US Alliance is affixed on deflecting enemies, the Nationalists that control the Japanese Government will not adopt any policies that would lead to direct confrontation with the Chinese.

Japan has a very deep relationship with the Government in Taiwan (KMT and other minority parties), economic vibrancy is a keystone of our foreign policy and foreign relations with Taiwan and China. A military operation would not only affect Chinese-Taiwanese-Japanese-South Korean economic trade, but would lead to the untold deaths of millions of civilians. A catastrophe that neither on any side ; Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese, South Korean, would want in our region.

East Asia, as a whole, have risen from the triviality of war and border conflict. The entire Greater East Asian Region is too heavily integrated , a regional block whose combined economic weight exceeds $17.85 Trillion (USD).

Why should Greater East Asia war with itself when we are already integrated. Only detractors and regions that are envious of Greater East Asia would wish a war in our region. Remember that. Only those who are jealous of the unprecedented success of Greater East Asia would want our region to be at war. Remember that.

I don't see the point you are trying to make here regarding Japanese Government. Unification is something between China and TW either through war or peacefully depending on TW's actions.

 

[Aepsilons]

I don't see the point you are trying to make here regarding Japanese Government. Unification is something between China and TW either through war or peacefully depending on TW's actions.

My friend, you need to have a better understanding of regional politics and the relations between China-Taiwan-Japan-South Korea. It is not a isolated case as we , as an entire region, are interdependent upon each other. It is to no one's interest to have a war over Taiwan. Integration is inevitable. In 3 decades time you will see a paradigm shift, considering how much demography in Taiwan has changed since 1949.

 

[YoucanYouup]

There is a web proverb well-known in mainland China
"Cultural revolution continued in Taiwan province（不到台湾，不知道文革还在搞）"
Cultural revolution is the most democracy time in our 5 thousand year history, people said they are justice so they can attack another people who claim justice either!
Red guardians never understand Mao Thought or Marxism, like western-democracy freedom fighters never understand democracy and freedom.

Let PLA finished it all

 

[Aepsilons]

Taiwan applied to be a member of AIIB via China's Taiwan Affair Office, which then passed Taiwan's letter of intent to join and passed it to the AIIB's interim secretariat.

I don't think there were any protests from any other country.

Unfortunately for Taiwan, this is the current political reality.

Taiwan, an economic power with a GDP of $505 Billion (USD) should be given consideration. Her economy is larger than most countries in Europe. We are, afterall, referring to an Asian Economic Tiger. Not some kind of third world state.

There is a web proverb well-known in mainland China
"Cultural revolution continued in Taiwan province（不到台湾，不知道文革还在搞）"
Cultural revolution is the most democracy time in our 5 thousand year history, people said they are justice so they can attack another people who claim justice either!
Red guardians never understand Mao Thought or Marxism, like western-democracy freedom fighters never understand democracy and freedom.

Let PLA finished it all

Cultural Revolution was the greatest travesty that ever hit the Chinese Nation, as cultural legacies were destroyed. If anything, Taiwan is a repository of traditional Chinese Culture , a reflection of pre-Maoist Cultural Revolution. If anything, Taiwan is a gem for China.

 

[terranMarine]

My friend, you need to have a better understanding of regional politics and the relations between China-Taiwan-Japan-South Korea. It is not a isolated case as we , as an entire region, are interdependent upon each other. It is to no one's interest to have a war over Taiwan. Integration is inevitable. In 3 decades time you will see a paradigm shift, considering how much demography in Taiwan has changed since 1949.

for the last time pen pal, whether there will be war depends on TW's actions. Third Taiwan Strait Crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

After the crisis nobody in TW dared to try that prank again because China shall use force period.

 

[Aepsilons]

for the last time pen pal, whether there will be war depends on TW's actions. Third Taiwan Strait Crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

After the crisis nobody in TW dared to try that prank again because China shall use force period.

Much has happened and changed since 1996, my friend. And I personally see no potential for war in Taiwan, please do not be influenced by propaganda of rabble-rousers. Taiwan will be integrated peacefully to China.

 

[YoucanYouup]

Taiwan, an economic power with a GDP of $505 Billion (USD) should be given consideration. Her economy is larger than most countries in Europe. We are, afterall, referring to an Asian Economic Tiger. Not some kind of third world state.



Cultural Revolution was the greatest travesty that ever hit the Chinese Nation, as cultural legacies were destroyed. If anything, Taiwan is a repository of traditional Chinese Culture , a reflection of pre-Maoist Cultural Revolution. If anything, Taiwan is a gem for China.

Wrong,man
The problem is not culture, is there any western democracy in Chinese culture?
The problem is ideology , Taiwan is going too far.

 

[terranMarine]

Much has happened and changed since 1996, my friend. And I personally see no potential for war in Taiwan, please do not be influenced by propaganda of rabble-rousers. Taiwan will be integrated peacefully to China.

yes it will be integrated most likely peacefully, but should they want to test China's sense of humor again like 1995 the PLA shall move in. As long there won't be a repeat of that prank things are cool with us. Which is what i have been saying all the time and you keep on debatting there won't be a war since TW has changed since 1949. Obviously they were still delusional in 1995. Fast forward 20 years later China's strength and influence has shattered their hopes for independence.
Time will come for unification that's for sure.

 

[Aepsilons]

Wrong,man
The problem is not culture, is there any western democracy in Chinese culture?
The problem is ideology , Taiwan is going too far.

NO.

First of all @YoucanYouup , there is nothing Western about 中華民國政府. If you examine the political entities of the 中華民國政府, you will see that it is based on the same Imperial Administration Structure of the late Qing, and Ming Dynasties.

For example the Legislative Yuan 立法院 -- is not a bicameral house, but rather, a unicameral legislature, quite similar actually to the NPC (National People's Congress of the CPC). Did you know that? In fact, the structure of the Legislative Yuan 立法院 was inspired by the writings of the provisions of the late Dr. Sun Yat Sen , who was the mentor of Jiang Jieshi.

Second, the 司法院 or the Judicial Yuan is impeccable in its autonomy from government, and employs the Censorate 御史台, which is a traditional Office in the Imperial Chinese System, the 御史台 was an office that traces back to the Qin Dynasty, and one that has been in the employ of the Imperial Government of China form Han, Song, Yuan, Tang, Ming, and Qing Dynasties --- and one that remains in use in the Republic of China's own government.

Third, Taiwan, to this day, still maintains the 考試院, or the Civil Examination Administration, a vestige of the Imperial Governmental Structure. So you see, @YoucanYouup , contrary to your premise of Taiwan being a "Western Democracy", it really is not in the traditional sense of the word. Taiwan has retained many aspects and tools of government that traces itself back to the Imperial System.

I would say Taiwan's governmental structure is a fusion of Imperial Administration with some elements of 'representative democracy'. But to say it is a 'Western Democracy Model' is wrong. Taiwan's model is actually an Asian model, one that traces its lineage to the great Dr. Sun Yat Sen.

@TaiShang , can you also add some words? You as a Taiwanese would know more on the internal dynamics of the Government in Taiwan. Thanks.

 

[YoucanYouup]

NO.

First of all @YoucanYouup , there is nothing Western about 中華民國政府. If you examine the political entities of the 中華民國政府, you will see that it is based on the same Imperial Administration Structure of the late Qing, and Ming Dynasties.

For example the Legislative Yuan 立法院 -- is not a bicameral house, but rather, a unicameral legislature, quite similar actually to the NPC (National People's Congress of the CPC). Did you know that? In fact, the structure of the Legislative Yuan 立法院 was inspired by the writings of the provisions of the late Dr. Sun Yat Sen , who was the mentor of Jiang Jieshi.

Second, the 司法院 or the Judicial Yuan is impeccable in its autonomy from government, and employs the Censorate 御史台, which is a traditional Office in the Imperial Chinese System, the 御史台 was an office that traces back to the Qin Dynasty, and one that has been in the employ of the Imperial Government of China form Han, Song, Yuan, Tang, Ming, and Qing Dynasties --- and one that remains in use in the Republic of China's own government.

Third, Taiwan, to this day, still maintains the 考試院, or the Civil Examination Administration, a vestige of the Imperial Governmental Structure. So you see, @YoucanYouup , contrary to your premise of Taiwan being a "Western Democracy", it really is not in the traditional sense of the word. Taiwan has retained many aspects and tools of government that traces itself back to the Imperial System.

I would say Taiwan's governmental structure is a fusion of Imperial Administration with some elements of 'representative democracy'. But to say it is a 'Western Democracy Model' is wrong. Taiwan's model is actually an Asian model, one that traces its lineage to the great Dr. Sun Yat Sen.

@TaiShang , can you also add some words? You as a Taiwanese would know more on the internal dynamics of the Government in Taiwan. Thanks.

Ideology,man.Society System is the surface.
Do you ever heard Sun flower revolution（太阳花运动）?or civil disobedience（公民不服从）？
Green guardians think,talk,act like a western-democracy freedom fighter（If you can understand Chinese language, you need learn what they are talk）.Democracy,Freedom,Human right,Anti-communism,etc… Chinese culture?

 

[Aepsilons]

Ideology,man.Society System is the surface.
Do you ever heard Sun flower revolution（太阳花运动）?or civil disobedience（公民不服从）？
Green guardians think,talk,act like a western-democracy freedom fighter（If you can understand Chinese language, you need learn what they are talk）.Democracy,Freedom,Human right,Anti-communism,etc… Chinese culture?

Civil disobedience movement in Taiwan is a minority segment of the nation, please do not think that Taiwanese people, in general, are sympathetic to this. Taiwanese society is very stoic, in general. I am speaking as one who has been to Taiwan plenty of times, with plenty of friends and associates in Taiwan. Taiwanese society is very conformist , similar and akin to Japanese society and traditional Chinese society in the Mainland. This concept of revolutionism and popular protest is something that is supported by a very minority few in Taiwan. From reading your post it seems to me that you have not been to Taiwan or have very very limited exposure to Taiwanese society on a first hand basis. Probably your knowledge or exposure of Taiwan is based on propagandistic information from rabble rousers.

Please do not feed to the propaganda of rabble rousers (from both sides of the Straits). Have your own research and not simply rely on the feedings of rabble rousers.

Take Care.