maverick07
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You are assuming a lot of things in your analysis above..... which is not true. Let me point out the facts:Lee Kuan Yew's view was that India would be lucky to catch up with Brazil in per capita income and no more. But for China, Lee predicated that it could easily surpass Singapore in per capita income in the not too distant future.
To reach China's productivity level in a decade and a half, India needs to grow as fast as China has in the past 15 years, if not faster.
This is a simple matter of arithmetic. India's GDP is about $2 trillion today. Chinese GDP is around $11.4 trillion today. For India's GDP to grow to $11.4 trillion in 15 years, India needs to grow 12% per year every year until 2030.
India's official GDP growth rate is a lie made up by the Statistics Ministry, which miraculously added 3% to her GDP growth rate overnight. India's real growth rate is closer to 5.5%, based on all the component indicators such as service sector growth, industrial production growth, investment levels, etc. The component indicators have only improved slightly from 3 years ago.
At current pace, it will take more than 30 years for India to reach where China is today. Even if India manages a constant 7% annual growth rate, which it has never done before, it would take India 25 years to reach where China is today. If we go by India's average growth rate between 1992 and 2012, which is about 6.5%, it will take India 27 years to reach where China is today.
25 to 30 years is a very long time. Given India's life expectancy is only 65 years, many of our Indian forum members will be dead before India can catch up with China of today.
Good luck!
1. India has been growing at average 7% per annum in the past twenty years since the reforms of the nineties
2. You consider India's stats to be a lie... but would happily buy China's stats of a $11 trillion GDP..... which added miraculously 20% more to its GDP a few years back and which grew phenomenally well during the global financial crisis when its exports markets crashed..... in fact this GDP of USD 11 trillion also a big lie in many ways as this is supplied by China's statistics ministry in a non transparent manner
3. India's life time expectancy will also rise accordingly so I will be able to reaffirm my comments which I make today
4. And India's growth will certainly grow faster than it did in the past as reforms are in the right track and investments are pouring from across the world including China indicating the expectation of faster growth (so they are putting their money where their mouth is)
5. And when I say productivity will catch up with China..... I am talking about productivity and not production (so your comparison of industrial production is not accurate)
I am not quoting Lee Kuan Yew.........What I am saying is what could have been said of China 30 years ago could certainly be said of India today, as we have the resource base and the resolve to achieve it...... no matter what the naysayers say (and we have heard them for too long to be of any use) so if you feel India is not going to grow, why are so many Chinese companies willing to invest in IndiaNope, Lee Kuan Yew never said the same thing with India. Here what he says.
As far as the caste system is concerned, it has changed a lot.... we certainly have a long way to go to completely eliminate it. But a kind of caste system exists everywhere (its called a class) in the world including China (the very quotation referred to you above talks about descendants of illiterate farmers from Guangdong & Fujian is a testimony that China certainly was not a meritocracy at that time which if remedied over time means others can also catch up)
India as a nation state has been an inward looking country but that does not mean it will always remain so and certainly the spread of the diaspora changed India's view of the world and will continue to do so