World's population likely to shrink after 50 years

[FuturePAF]

The main problem is not with the number of population (be it 9.7B or 8.8B) it's with the age structure of the population... the inverted pyramid structure will not be sustainable for long... well hopefully android type robots will become available by then to care and nurse for the majority of the older population...

That’s it right there; who ever had a well trained young workforce will have a competitive advantage, while those societies with a large percentage of elderly will have a hard time.

 

[Indos]

Video is for PPP, article is estimating nominal.

PPP is better measure...so I would say INA will be 4th biggest or close to that by that time frame.

I have edited the video and put nominal estimation, and the projection also put Indonesia in the 4 place. But 2050 is too long, better see the projection until 10 -14 years ahead.

 

[Mista]

That respected publication should put where the estimation comes from..........

In 2034, Indonesia nominal GDP projection put Indonesia in 11 biggest economy in nominal term by using our current growth at 5-5.5 percent per year. Latest report from CEBR

View attachment 652519

https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/World-Economic-League-Table-Report-2020-Final.pdf

Why are you so sensitive?

They are talking about projections in 2100 and you keep citing figures from 2050 or 2030s? The vast majority of the workforce in 2100 will not even be born in the 2030s.

Will Indonesia's GDP be growing 5-5.5% until 2100? Will Indonesia's population keep growing until 2100? Will Indonesia remain as the 4th most populous country in 2100?

 

[Indos]

Why are you so sensitive?

They are talking about projections in 2100 and you keep citing figures from 2050 or 2030s? The vast majority of the workforce in 2100 will not even be born in the 2030s.

Will Indonesia's GDP be growing 5-5.5% until 2100? Will Indonesia's population keep growing until 2100? Will Indonesia remain as the 4th most populous country in 2100?

LOL I just try to correct the number based on reliable 2050 estimation, why you are so sensitive when I try to correct the number and want to see who do the estimation ? It is a genuine question to know which institution do the projection.

 

[Nilgiri]

I have edited the video and put nominal estimation, and the projection also put Indonesia in the 4 place. But 2050 is too long, better see the projection until 10 -14 years ahead.

Yah 2050, the issue is there is lot of countries bunched up in the 4 - 6 trillion GDP bracket by most estimates, so downstream that far...rank number only means so much.

You are right its way too far in future too for GDP valid projection imo, 10 years is about where some basic confidence interval lies for projecting.

Honestly in this timescale, we have to consider that very nature of GDP economic activity will likely change quite drastically given pace of tech development. It will hinge ultimately on new (hopefully cheap competitive) forms of sustainable energy, propulsion and computing systems....to expand the total frontier of possibility for the large world population.

 

[Mista]

LOL I just try to correct the number based on reliable 2050 estimation, why you are so sensitive when I try to correct the number and want to see who do the estimation ?

Lmao. There's no 'reliable' estimation of 2050 which is 30 years away, much less an estimation for 2100 which is 80 years away.

You're trying to 'correct the number'. Correct what? You're trying to 'correct' an estimation of 2100, based on an estimation of an estimation in 2050? I can see where you're coming from, and you're not sensitive?

It is a genuine question to know which institution do the projection.

If it's indeed a genuine question, you should've read the article and would know that it's published by Lancet, one of the world's best-known general medical journals.

Here's the full journal:
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2.pdf
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/tl-pss_1071320.p

 

[Indos]

Yah 2050, the issue is there is lot of countries bunched up in the 4 - 6 trillion GDP bracket by most estimates, so downstream that far...rank number only means so much.

You are right its way too far in future too for GDP valid projection imo, 10 years is about where some basic confidence interval lies for projecting.

Honestly in this timescale, we have to consider that very nature of GDP economic activity will likely change quite drastically given pace of tech development. It will hinge ultimately on new (hopefully cheap competitive) forms of sustainable energy, propulsion and computing systems....to expand the total frontier of possibility for the large world population.

Yup, thats right, it is why USA with only about 300 million people can have much larger economy than both China and India who has more than 1.4 billion people. We cannot do economic estimation base on population alone.

10-15 years projection is still quite reliable, better not use 2050 projection.

Just look on the GDP projection when they put Israeli economy become number 16 while Egypt is put in number 23 despite Egyptian has much larger population

Look like the projection is made by anti Muslim analyst

 

[Yaseen1]

Good people will end from this world gradually so Qiyamat will occur when there will be no right person in world,this is sign that human extinction and end of times are approaching and it will likely to happen in next few centuries also it will decrease speed of development and technological advancement

 

[Nike]

You know prediction is useless, even in January this year no one knew about Covid19 in which killed more than half million people today and wreaking world economy. No one know if in 2027 or 2030 world War happened or not or Earth facing alien invasion or Not

@xenon54 @Indos @Viet @Nilgiri @nufix

 

[Mista]

Demographic apocalypse: collapsing birth rates will turn our world upside down
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...tes-will-turn-our-world-upside-down-bxpbjrbk0

 

[Mista]

https://interactives.prb.org/2020-wpds/storymap/

 

[Figaro]

Lmao. There's no 'reliable' estimation of 2050 which is 30 years away, much less an estimation for 2100 which is 80 years away.

You're trying to 'correct the number'. Correct what? You're trying to 'correct' an estimation of 2100, based on an estimation of an estimation in 2050? I can see where you're coming from, and you're not sensitive?



If it's indeed a genuine question, you should've read the article and would know that it's published by Lancet, one of the world's best-known general medical journals.

Here's the full journal:
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2.pdf
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/tl-pss_1071320.p

View attachment 652521

China's population falling by almost 50%? India's population falling by 300 million? This whole thing seems extremely suspect.

 

[Mista]

This whole thing seems extremely suspect.

The study is done by The Lancet, one of the world's most reputable medical journals. So they must have done some thorough research on the topic.

No? Let's crunch some numbers.

India's population falling by 300 million?

India's TFR is already close to replacement level at 2.2, and will likely to continue to fall as India develops and urbanize. India's population will probably start shrinking in a generation's time, assuming no major changes in life expectancy.

China's population falling by almost 50%?

Definitely possible if you do the math. There's still 80 years away to 2100, which is around 3-4 generation's time.

Assuming China's TFR is 1.6 on average for the next 80 years, each generation will be around 1.6/2.1=76% the size of the previous generation. Compounded by 3 generations, the third generation would be around only 0.76^3= 44% of today's generation.

And this is based on very optimistic projections. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's TFR is only 1.05 in 2015. They have stopped compiling after that.

Data published in the China Statistical Yearbook 2016 showed that China recorded a total fertility rate (TFR) of just 1.05 for 2015

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2016-1...hinas-plunging-fertility-rates-101003748.html

Maybe China's TFR has risen after the relaxation of one-child policy, but most experts estimate the current TFR is around 1.2-1.3, not too different from other East Asian countries. Birth rates continue to fall after the second year of the relaxation of the OCP.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-11-02/chart-of-the-day-chinas-slipping-birth-rate-101342166.html

It's unlikely to see a major uptick in China's TFR in the foreseeable future. China will continue to urbanize, and younger generations of Chinese women will continue to get more educated and participate in the workforce.

According to Chinese state media, China's working-age population is projected to fall by 100 million in just 15 years' time.

As the world's largest labor market, China could experience a declining labor force as the estimated number in 2035 might fall to 800 million, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said on Thursday.

In an article published in the recent issue of the semimonthly Qiushi Journal, the ministry said the domestic job market still faces mounting challenges. The labor force, which has been shrinking since 2012, could become more palpable this year.

By the end of 2018, the total labor force in China reached nearly 900 million and is expected to lose 100 million by 2035, the article stated.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0103/c90000-9645794.html

Since those entering the labor force by 2035 have already been born by 2019, this figure should be very accurate.

So back to your question, China's population shrinking by 50% (or even more) in 80 years' time is a very distinct possibility.

 

[Nilgiri]

The study is done by The Lancet, one of the world's most reputable medical journals. So they must have done some thorough research on the topic.

No? Let's crunch some numbers.



India's TFR is already close to replacement level at 2.2, and will likely to continue to fall as India develops and urbanize. India's population will probably start shrinking in a generation's time, assuming no major changes in life expectancy.

View attachment 659579



Definitely possible if you do the math. There's still 80 years away to 2100, which is around 3-4 generation's time.

Assuming China's TFR is 1.6 on average for the next 80 years, each generation will be around 1.6/2.1=76% the size of the previous generation. Compounded by 3 generations, the third generation would be around only 0.76^3= 44% of today's generation.

And this is based on very optimistic projections. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's TFR is only 1.05 in 2015. They have stopped compiling after that.


https://www.caixinglobal.com/2016-1...hinas-plunging-fertility-rates-101003748.html

Maybe China's TFR has risen after the relaxation of one-child policy, but most experts estimate the current TFR is around 1.2-1.3, not too different from other East Asian countries. Birth rates continue to fall after the second year of the relaxation of the OCP.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-11-02/chart-of-the-day-chinas-slipping-birth-rate-101342166.html

It's unlikely to see a major uptick in China's TFR in the foreseeable future. China will continue to urbanize, and younger generations of Chinese women will continue to get more educated and participate in the workforce.

According to Chinese state media, China's working-age population is projected to fall by 100 million in just 15 years' time.


http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0103/c90000-9645794.html

Since those entering the labor force by 2035 have already been born by 2019, this figure should be very accurate.

So back to your question, China's population shrinking by 50% (or even more) in 80 years' time is a very distinct possibility.

Basically TFR levels and trends would have to change quite a bit in future for this total pop trend to change.

 

[Redbeanpaste]

Bangladesh is one of the countries to halve its population by 2100. Amazing progress!!

I think this news is all upside. Robotics and AI are already doing much of the work of production. Most of the unemployment in the west is caused by robotics not by jobs going abroad. By 2100 human beings will probably have a lot more leisure time while machines work. And the planet and nature will sigh in relief.
Not sure about Africa though....