World Economies

[genmirajborgza786]

Sir Terry still 'Wales richest'
Sir Terry Matthews has retained his title as the richest person in Wales.
The telecoms and leisure billionaire has an estimated wealth of £1,010m - a drop of £190m on last year - according to the Sunday Times Rich List.

Kwik Save supremo and property tycoon Albert Gubay is ranked Wales' second richest with a £650m fortune, followed by businessman David Sullivan (£600m).

Celebrities Sir Tom Jones and Catherine Zeta Jones have both slipped two places, taking them outside the top 10.

Sir Tom's fortune is estimated at £190m, up £5m on last year, ranking him Wales' 11th richest person.

Actress Catherine Zeta Jones is ranked 12th with a fortune worth £185m.
RICH LIST - WELSH TOP 10
1 Sir Terry Matthews, telecommunications £1,010m
2 Albert Gubay, property and fitness clubs £650m
3 David Sullivan, media and property, £600m
4 Michael Moritz, computers £558m
5 Duncan Cameron, Internet, £480m
5 Simon Nixon, Internet, £480m
7 Steve Morgan, Construction and leisure, £450m
8 Henry Engelhardt, Motor insurance, £440m
9 Sir Stanley and Peter Thomas, Property, £285m
10 Lord Heseltine, Publishing, £200m

Sir Terry Matthews remains Wales' only billionaire, with his fortune ranking him as the 63rd richest person in the overall list.

He made his fortune in telecommunications but has invested in the £600m Celtic Manor resort in his home town of Newport where golf's Ryder Cup will be held in 2010.

The list claims he has around £200m in land holdings in Canada, plus other assets through his Wesley Clover business.

Two new entries make it into Wales' top 10. Duncan Cameron and Simon Nixon are joint fifth, both with an estimated family wealth of £480m.

According to this year's list, Wales' richest people have seen their fortunes grow by 15% in the past year.

The wealth of the 10 richest people has risen from £4,465m in 2006 to £5,153.

Individuals require a wealth of £70m to make it into the Rich List's top 1,000, a £10m increase on last year.

It means 25 people qualify from Wales.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/uk_news/wales/6603739.stm

Published: 2007/04/29 07:54:35 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[genmirajborgza786]

Terra Firma re-extends EMI offer
Private equity group Terra Firma has extended its offer to buy EMI for a second time as investors hoping for a counterbid hang on to their shares.
Shareholders have been given until 12 July to accept the recommended £2.4bn cash offer as holders of only 3.56% of the share capital have accepted so far.

Warner Music says it is still considering whether to make a rival offer for EMI.

Terra Firma is allowed to extend the offer until the end of the month.

EMI shares initially jumped above the 265 pence per share being offered by Terra Firma, but have since fallen back close to that level.

If Warner Music does make an offer for EMI, any deal between the two is expected to come under scrutiny from competition regulators. As a result of this, any bid from Warner is expected to have to be well above 265p a share.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6272510.stm

Published: 2007/07/05 08:54:22 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[genmirajborgza786]

Dubai-run fund takes EADS stake
Dubai International Capital (DIC) has bought 3.12% of European Aeronautic, Defence and Space (EADS).
The government of Dubai owns DIC along with Emirates, the airline that is the largest customer for the Airbus A380.

The price has not been announced, but at Wednesday's closing price, it would have cost 614m euros ($836m; £415m).

It is a big vote of confidence in the restructuring plan for Airbus, which will include 10,000 job cuts and the sale of up to six factories.

DIC said it would not try to take any role in running EADS and would not be seeking a seat on its board.

Profits at EADS fell 94% last year, hit by delays to the A380 super-jumbo, industrial problems and the weak dollar.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6274100.stm

Published: 2007/07/05 14:17:15 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[genmirajborgza786]

EU urged to monitor biofuel boom
Europe must act to prevent biofuels from becoming an environmental threat, the EU's trade commissioner has said.
Demand for "green" fuels could lead to developing nations tearing down rain forests to produce fuel crops, Peter Mandelson warned.

At a conference in Brussels, he also told EU member states they should not view the biofuel boom as a new way to finance the farming sector.

Instead, the EU should look for "cheaper, cleaner" imports, he said.

As part of Europe's pledge to fight climate change, the EU has pushed for a switch to green fuels. To that end, it has set a target of ensuring that biofuels make up 10% of vehicle fuel by 2020.

Imports push

"Biofuel policy is not ultimately an industrial policy or an agricultural policy - it is an environmental policy, driven above all by the greenest outcomes," Mr Mandelson told an EU biofuels conference in Brussels.

"Europe should be open to accepting that we will import a large part of our biofuel resources.

"We should certainly not contemplate favouring EU production of biofuels with a weak carbon performance if we can import cheaper, cleaner biofuels," he added.

However, his comments could draw the wrath of some EU countries with strong interests in agriculture, such as France.

Price concerns

Oilseed crops in Europe - which are mainly rapeseed - currently receive heavy subsidies, making them cheaper than imported Brazilian ethanol, which is subject to large import tariffs of around 70%.

But the Brazilian fuel, which is made from sugar, releases far less carbon dioxide when it is burned.

"All biofuels are not equal," Mr Mandelson added.

"We must commit to meeting our targets through the use of those biofuels that are most effective in relative terms in reducing global carbon impact."

Mr Mandelson's comments come a day after a joint report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations warned biofuel demand would keep farm commodity prices high over the next decade.

According to the study, ethanol production in the US, which mainly uses domestic corn, is expected to double by 2016.

At the same time in the EU, the amount of oilseeds used for biofuels will jump from 10 milllion tons to 21 million tons.

Meanwhile, in Brazil - currently the world's fastest-growing ethanol producer - biofuel output is set to hit 44 billion litres over the next 10 years, 145% more than in 2006.



Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6273626.stm

Published: 2007/07/05 12:43:06 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[genmirajborgza786]

NOW THAT,S WHAT YOU CALL BUSINESS WITH A PASSION FOR SPORTS AFTER ALL ITS ALL ABOUT THE GAME ISN'T IT?



Firm makes offer for Spurs shares
Sports and media group ENIC International has made an offer to take 100% control of Tottenham Hotspur Football Club.
ENIC already holds 66% of Tottenham shares having last month snapped up Sir Alan Sugar's stake for £25m ($49.8m).

City rules required ENIC to make the new offer - though analysts say it is highly unlikely it will end up owning all of the club.

Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy is the managing director of ENIC.

While ENIC is prepared to pay cash for any shares which it does not own, the group has said that it has no intention of taking the club off the AIM stock market.

Relocation thoughts

ENIC has invested about £30m so far this summer as Spurs plan their assault on securing a Champions League place.

More than half of this was spent on signing England striker Darren Bent from Charlton.

Mr Levy has said he is keen to move to new training facilities and is contemplating whether to increase the capacity of Spurs' ground, White Hart Lane, or to relocate as arch-rivals Arsenal did at the start of last season.

The sale of Sugar's shares - which officially went through on Monday - ended the formal relationship between Spurs and the star of BBC One's The Apprentice, who was a former chairman of the club.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6275338.stm

Published: 2007/07/05 18:49:15 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[Neo]

World economies​

According to IMF staff's latest assessment, the region covered by the Middle East and Central Asia appears set for another year of strong growth. Real GDP should average over six per cent in 2007, for the fifth year in a row. All country groupings within the region—oil exporters, emerging markets, and low-income countries—have been performing well. Continued high oil and non-oil commodity prices, robust global growth, a favorable international financial environment, and sound policies in many countries of the region are underpinning this performance.

Inflation is rising, fueled by rapid demand growth and strong foreign inflows. With monetary policy largely accommodative in many countries, inflation is expected to average nearly nine per cent in 2007 compared with 7.5 per cent last year. The up tick is particularly notable in some oil-exporting countries. In these countries, higher inflation is beginning to translate into more appreciated real exchange rates, as would be expected in response to increased oil prices.

The region's external and fiscal surpluses remain very high, but are expected to decline in 2007. For oil exporters, only one-fourth of the projected fall in the external current account surplus in 2007 is due to lower oil prices. The remainder is accounted for by the impact of higher spending, with imports rising strongly as major public and private infrastructure projects get under way and spending on social programs increases. Oil export revenues are projected to decline slightly to $570 billion in 2007, based on an average oil price of $61 a barrel, down from $64 last year. Naturally, the revenue projections are highly sensitive to oil prices, with a $5 a barrel decline estimated to reduce the region's annual exports by$45billion, and fiscal receipts by $35 billion.

GCC’s national income: In another report, the National Bank of Kuwait observed that GCC's national income averaged 19 per cent growth in the past four years on sharply higher oil and non-oil activity, public spending and domestic confidence. Despite massive spending on projects, GCC governments added almost $500 billion to net foreign assets over the past four years, enough to sustain spending growth for many years. Investment boom with $1.25 trillion in planned public and private projects will continue to propel growth of the private sector.

Purchasing power was sharply higher as per capita GDP averaged 15 per cent annual growth over four years despite rising inflationary pressures. Double digit nominal growth continued for a fourth year, albeit short of the 26 per cent high recorded in 2005. Growth is likely to be slower in 2007, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait seeing the sharpest deceleration. Yet, if oil prices bounce back up as markets continue to tighten, most countries could see another year of double digit increases. Though inflation was highest in Qatar (11.8 per cent) and UAE (10 per cent), the two were among the fastest growing economies in emerging markets, with real growth of 8.8 and 10 per cent, respectively.

In 2006, Qatar, UAE and Kuwait continued to climb the world ranks in terms of per capita income. Yet rapid population growth meant slower per capita GDP growth. Still, employment and wage growth are boosting disposable income. With no official employment figures for 2006 and population growth used as a proxy, the compounded increase in nominal wage income is estimated to have topped 15% again last year. GCC hydrocarbon export revenues jumped 47 per cent in 2005 and likely to have risen by nearly 20 per cent to reach $360 billion in 2006.

Non-Oil Activities: While the oil sector underpinned growth in the past 4 years and drove income from non-oil activities up by 6-12 per cent, the investment boom will sustain growth over the medium term. Oil prices expected to remain sufficiently high through 2009, guaranteeing continued budget surpluses and fueling spending. Strong Asian demand, limited spare production capacity and geopolitical risks may propel oil prices beyond 2006 peaks. Current account and fiscal surpluses of 26 and 17 per cent of GDP in 2006 respectively are likely to rise further if high oil prices are sustained.

Current account and budget surpluses reached a record of $177 billion and $122 billion in 2006. Foreign assets boosted by around $500 billion in accumulated surpluses over the past four years vs. $112 billion in previous four years. Though 40 per cent of the oil windfall is being spent in the current boom growth in government expenditures averaged 14 per cent over the last three years, boosting domestic demand and activity. Fiscal stimulus remains strong with 2006 spending raised by 14 following a 20 per cent increase in 2005, to accommodate higher wages, social programs and capital spending. Budgets for 2007 show a similar increase.

Growth in investment has been accelerating. Strength of domestic demand is building significant momentum in non-oil activities. In Kuwait, financial services, transport & storage, communications, construction and manufacturing are likely to have enjoyed a third year of double digit growth. Confidence has also lifted inward FDI flows with Saudi Arabia and UAE ahead of much publicized flows into Qatar’s gas sector. GCC governments’ drive to open up key sectors to foreign ownership may see the trend continue. Total FDI inflows reached $20 billion in 2005 and are estimated to have increased a further 20 per cent in 2006.

Kuwait

In its latest economic brief on the oil market and budget developments, the National Bank of Kuwait noted that oil prices remained strong, due in large part to concerns over fuel supply in the run-up to the US driving season, traditionally beginning in June. Unexpected glitches at US refineries added to concerns of a run-down in gasoline stocks in early May, while prices at US gas pumps reached record highs of $3.10 per gallon. Crude continues to be subject to its own pressures, however, including fears of supply disruptions amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions in Nigeria, South America and between the West and Iran.

Average Brent crude oil prices firmed in April, up nearly nine per cent to $67.4 per barrel from $62.1 in March and the highest since August 2006. Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) prices rose by a similar amount, up more than 8 percent to $60.4 from $55.8 a month earlier. That strength was sustained in the first half of May, with KEC averaging $61.3. The apparent lack of resolution amongst Opec members to cap further upward pressure on crude prices could become a recurring theme over the summer.

Production Ceiling: Between the third quarter of 2006 and first quarter of 2007, the Opec members (excluding Iraq and the club's newest member, Angola) cut their official production ceiling by more than 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd) to 26.5 mbd in an attempt to support crude prices over the unusually mild winter. But many are of the view that the cartel is not doing enough to limit the upside risk to prices, especially with the supply/demand situation set to reverse which could fuel bullish speculative positions. At their March meeting in Vienna, Opec ministers admitted that "the overall market is likely to remain volatile" and that global economic growth was likely to remain "relatively firm" this year.

NBK notes that growth in global oil demand in 2007 is expected to be solid. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil demand to rise by an average of 1.5 mbd in 2007, or 1.8 per cent, to 85.8 mbd, driven mainly by strong growth of 3.5 per cent from non-OECD countries - one third of which is accounted for by rising demand from China. The CGES holds a somewhat more cautious view, with growth in global oil demand slowing in response to rising oil prices and interest rates. They expect oil demand to rise by 0.9 mbd in 2007, or 1.1 per cent, with nearly all of that growth coming from outside the OECD.

Kuwait economic prospects will continue to depend on the strength of international oil prices and the country's ability to raise or, at least, maintain crude oil output. Even with capacity beginning to rise only gradually towards the extreme end of the forecast period, however, the emirate's current- account surpluses will remain strong, and real GDP growth is projected to average 5.4 per cent in 2007-11. The fiscal surplus will progressively narrow after 2007-08, owing to falling international oil prices, contracting to around two per5 cent of GDP in 2011/12.

Overseas Investment: Kuwaiti capital invested overseas is likely to continue to return to the country. Openings will arise for the private sector, including some—albeit more limited—opportunities for foreign companies. However, the development of most major infrastructure projects will depend on oil-funded government largesse. Specific privatisation measures will be limited, especially in the oil sector, with openings largely confined to the provision of rival services to state providers, or to build-operate- transfer contracts—which will be increasingly subject to public scrutiny. Kuwait is expected to remain cautious in its pursuit of fiscal reform. Nevertheless, some indirect taxes may be introduced in an attempt to broaden the revenue base, which will continue to be bolstered by the emirate's extensive overseas investments.

According to NBK, budget will remain in surplus during the current fiscal year. Despite the government's forecast of a deficit, the 2007/08 budget will almost certainly show another sizeable surplus. Government budget projections for 2007/08 use an average price of $36, well below even the lowest estimate in our range of likely outcomes. Forecast for total revenues in 2007/08 ranges from a 16 percent decline to a 6 percent increase from last fiscal year, leaving revenues in the range of KD 12.9 billion to KD 16.2 billion and well above the budgeted KD 9.2 billion. Expenditures are likely to come in somewhat below the government's forecast of KD 10.5 billion, leaving the surplus in the range of KD 2.8 billion to KD 6.4 billion before the allocation of 10 per cent of revenues to the RFFG.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/07/09/ebr10.htm

 

[Bushroda]

Asian countries sustain robust growth
Xinhua, China
2007-07-10 11:10:28

MANILA, July 10 (Xinhua) -- Asian countries have sustained robust economic growth in the first half this year, with many countries' growth rates climbing higher than forecast. China and India retained the role of locomotive of Asian economy in the first six months, while ASEAN countries also performed well.

If the momentum of growth goes on in the second half of the year, Asia might well out-perform a 7.6 percent growth rate forecast earlier this year by the Asian Development Bank for the whole year of 2007.

Despite a slowdown of U.S. economy and sluggish growth in Japan and the European Union, the economies in Asia stayed largely dynamic, which is demonstrated by a sustained increase of exports and domestic consumption, the control of inflation, appreciation of local currencies against the U.S. dollar, mounting foreign currency reserves in central banks of the region, bullish stock markets and strengthening inter-regional economic and trade cooperation.

India's economy grew by 9 percent in the first quarter of the year, mainly pushed by industrial output which expanded by more than 10 percent. The country's economy is expected to grow at least 8 percent this year which would boost wages, consumption and stocks.

Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)scored well with Singapore's economy growing by 7.6 percent in the first quarter, faster than the government advance estimate of 7.2 percent due to strong construction and services sectors. Malaysian economy increased by 5.3 percent in the first quarter, letting the country to be optimistic about attaining a 6 percent growth rate target this year. Both public spending and private consumption have countered the negative effects from a drop of electronic products exports.

Both Indonesia and the Philippines have continued moving forward in the first quarter with a 6 percent and a 6.9 percent growth respectively. As economists expect Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, and the Philippines to be the only two ASEAN countries to enjoy stronger growth this year than last year, exports and agriculture are leading growth in Indonesia and the Philippine economy has been taking a better shape with fiscal reforms bringing more revenues and cutting expenditures.

Thailand has paid all the debts it owed to the International Monetary Fund after the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago and is expecting a 4 to 5 percent growth this year. Despite widespread drought and diseases for crops and animals, Vietnam scored a strong growth of 8 percent in the second quarter and 7.9 percent in the first half of the year, while foreign investment increased by 14 percent in the first half of the year.

South Korea, one of the most industrialized economy in the region, posted modest growth of 4 percent in the first quarter. The country expects to attain a growth rate of 4.4 percent for the whole year with stronger performances in the next half of the year.

As the U.S. dollar remains weak, return of foreign funds, trade surpluses and high saving rates, foreign reserves in Asian central banks hit 2.3 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of 2003.

As the region marked the 10th anniversary of the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, officials and economists are more confident that Asian countries can fend off better another financial crisis with its huge foreign reserves and closer inter-regional cooperation.

An envisaged regional financial cooperation mechanism, known as "Chiang Mai Initiative" launched in 2000 by ASEAN countries and China, Japan and South Korea, is likely to be on the agenda of Asian finance ministers when they meet in future.

However, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its Asian Development Outlook for 2007 that it is still too early to say that Asia is now less susceptible to the vicissitudes of the international economy. While economists have praised Asia for regaining dynamism and once again the fastest growth in the world, they have warned numerous challenges and risks, both internal and external, which the region is faced with.

Ifza Ali, a chief ADB economist, said nearly 80 percent of Asia's exports are eventually bound for external markets and only 20 percent can be traced to consumption and investment demand inside the region. More than 60 percent of Asian exports are to the United States, European Union and Japan.

Considering heavy reliance on the U.S. market, a short slowdown in the United States will inevitably hurt Asia's export-oriented economies. Meanwhile, a failure of the Doha Round talks of the World Trade Organization will also slow down global trade, making the condition of this round of talks critical, according to ADB.

Other challenges to the region include how to deepen economic reforms carried out by Asian countries in the past 10 years, how to better use the foreign reserves the region has accumulated, how to better control capital flows and check speculations, and how to tackle widespread poverty by creating good quality and decent jobs.

 

[Bull]

Mfring growth in India for the month of may has slowed.

 

[Neo]

China to be world’s third largest economy by year-end​

SHANGHAI: China’s economy grew so rapidly in the first half of 2007 that it is likely to overtake Germany as the world’s third-largest by the end of this year, analysts say.

The release Wednesday of January to June figures for Asia’s second biggest economy will provide fresh evidence that Beijing’s economic braking measures have had little effect.

China’s sizzling economy expanded even faster than originally thought last year, with the government revising 2006 growth domestic product (GDP) to 11.1 percent from 10.7 percent.

Data released by China’s statistics bureau last week showed the economy was worth 21.09 trillion yuan in 2006, about $2.65 trillion based on last year’s average exchange rate of 7.97 yuan to the dollar. The revision puts China in striking distance of Europe’s largest economy within months.

“With this upward revision, it is highly likely that China will bypass Germany to become the third-largest economy in the world in current US dollar terms by the end of this year,” said Hong Liang, an economist at Goldman Sachs.

According to the World Bank, Germany’s economy was worth 2.9 trillion dollars at the end of 2006. Economists expect GDP in the second quarter to near or equal its breathtaking January to March pace of 11.1 percent growth.

JPMorgan Chase Bank economist Wang Qian put the second-quarter acceleration at 10.6 percent, and said it would pick up speed in the second half of the year. “We don’t see any sector of the economy slowing down. It’s firing on all cylinders,” said Wang.

The torrid pace of development means that China’s economic czars will once again have to devise fresh ways to prevent the export powerhouse from the kind of overheating that could trigger a slide into financial crisis.

Regulators have already taken this year introduced a slew of piecemeal administrative measures to slow the economy, including two interest rate hikes, five increases in bank reserve requirements and new export curbs.

Exports, one of Beijing’s biggest headaches given the friction it causes with its two largest trade partners, the European Union and the United States, have continued to flood international markets.

The widening trade gap is on route to becoming the globe’s largest ever after Beijing announced last week that its surplus had jumped more than 85 percent in June to $26.91 billion.

Although the June figure was partly due to factories rushing to beat new curbs on exports that took effect July 1, the huge global demand for Chinese goods means the surplus will expand through the rest of the year, analysts said.

“China has become the world’s factory for manufactured consumer goods,” said Qu Hongbin, a senior economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.

“If global consumer demand remains then Chinese exports will grow. There is not a lot that government policy can do about that.”

Washington and Brussels believe one step to staunching the tide of Chinese goods would be greater appreciation in the currency, which trade partners say is artificially low and boosts China’s business competitiveness.

But China’s autocratic leadership fears that could destabilise its financial system, making such a step highly unlikely, in keeping with the government’s repeated position of allowing the yuan to rise slowly. Earlier this month the nation’s top economic planner said China had to further tighten macroeconomic controls in the second half in the face of growing financial risks.

“The trend is of an economy that is moving from a bias of fast growth to overheating,” said a research arm of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Li Huiyong, chief analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities in Shanghai, said the government had to get cracking.

“At the moment, there is no obvious change to the overheated economy, with inflation and investment (levels) likely to jump,” said Li.

“Under such circumstances, the major task is to prevent further overheating and strengthen controlling measures.” afp

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\07\17\story_17-7-2007_pg5_39

 

[Neo]

World economies​

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 12.4 per cent in 2006 to reach $346.9 billion while real GDP is estimated to have grown by 4.2 per cent to $213.3 billion. The nominal GDP over the period 2002-06 grew at the CAGR of 16.5 per cent as the high prices and production levels in 2005-06 kept GDP on a high growth path. However, in 2006, production levels on account of Opec cuts due to declining prices had its effect on the GDP growth as it recorded only 4.2 per cent real GDP growth in 2006 as compared to 6.3 per cent recorded in the previous year.

Oil sector grew by 16 per cent while the private sector grew by 7.9 per cent in nominal terms in 2006. The strong capital expenditure projects that the Saudi government has lined up are expected to add significantly to the GDP growth in the coming years. Fiscal surplus currently witnessed is being invested in infrastructural projects which will further benefit the other sectors of the economy. This will have the effect of broad-basing the economic diversification along with the job creation which is much needed in the burgeoning economy.

According to Ministry of Finance, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index is estimated to have increased by 1.8 per cent in 2006 as against only 0.7 per cent in 2005 while the non-oil GDP deflator has reported a yearly increase of 2.1 per cent in 2006 versus preceding year's 1.14 per cent. Following the rise in the US interest rates, SAMA, the Saudi central bank too raised the interest rates in the country. SAMA continued to adopt policy to support the domestic economic growth and tried to keep exchange rate stable.

Inflation: The Saudi central bank is not concerned about inflation and sees no reason for the government to sell bonds to soak up liquidity in the world's biggest oil exporter. The government has been using windfall oil revenues to pay back debt, cutting debt as proportion of gross domestic product to 28 per cent in December from a peak of 119 per cent in late 1990s. The policy did not threaten efforts to contain inflationary pressure. There is no danger of an increase in inflation because there are other tools to neutralise the impact of settling public debt.

Saudi inflation rose for a second month to 2.96 per cent in May 2007, the latest available figure, nearing the December rate of three per cent, the highest in at least five years. The inflation is not a reason for concern, as there is no inflationary pressure resulting from government spending. Rising inflation in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states will keep pressure on governments in the region to revalue their dollar-pegged currencies. The Saudi riyal has depreciated more than 24 per cent since the beginning of 2002.

The trade balance is estimated to have recorded a surplus of $147.6bn in 2006, registering an increase of 17.5 per cent. The current account balance increased to $102.7bn in 2006 as compared to $90 billion recorded in the previous year. One thing that emerges out of the picture is the strong growth in the imports which is indicative of the strong economic activity in the country. The current account balance is lower as compared to balance of trade as it includes outflow of funds on account of services and repatriation of funds by expatriate workers.

Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports reached about 8.1 billion Saudi riyals in April this year compared to 7.168 billion in the same month last year, showing an increase of 13 per cent, according to a recent report released by the Ministry of Economy and Planning. The total value of Saudi imports rose 38 per cent to 27.32 billion riyals in April compared to 19.75 billion riyals in April 2006. The Saudi non-oil exports to GCC states in April reached 2.047 billion Saudi riyals compared to 1.66 billion in April 2006 with an increase of 23 per cent.

UAE topped the list of GCC importers of Saudi non-oil products in April, followed by Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman respectively. Saudi imports from the GCC states in April, amounted to 1.15 billion riyals compared to 974 million riyals in the same month last year. This indicates an increase of 47 per cent. The UAE Products come first in term of the Saudi imports from the GCC countries, followed by Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar.

Statistical report: Meanwhile, the annual statistical report for 2006 released by the Central Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Economy and Planning revealed that the value of the kingdom's non-oil exports increased by 10 per cent to 79.3 billion Saudi riyals compared with 72.1 billion riyals in 2005. During the same year, the kingdom's imports jumped by 11 per cent from 22.2 billion Saudi riyals in 2005 to 24.8 billion riyals in 2006.

Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce average oil output again in 2007, as it seeks to defend an oil price floor of $50/barrel. Economic growth will remain robust in 2007-08, driven by strong government spending, rising foreign investment, high oil prices and an expected pick-up in oil output in 2008. The kingdom will also generate large current-account and fiscal surpluses. Inflation will remain low and there will be no pressure on the Saudi riyal's peg to the US dollar.

United Arab Emirates

The UAE is one of the major economic success stories within the Middle East. Although inflation is a problem, it is expected to improve. The economy is also expected to increase its diversification away from the oil sector. Although the UAE is not as dependent on oil for revenues as other GCC states, it does rely heavily on crude in terms of its budget. There are long-term risks to the country's bid to wean itself off hydrocarbons.

Recently released international statistics point out to extraordinary progress of the UAE economy. These sources include but are not limited to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plus the Bank for International Settlements. The UAE economy now ranks the second largest economy in the Arab region, larger than that of either Egypt or Algeria. Only the gross domestic product (GDP) of Saudi Arabia outweighs that of the UAE.

It is projected that the UAE's real GDP (adjusted for inflation) would amount to $181 billion in 2007, up from $163 billion in 2006. The achievement could be made on the back of a whopping 8.2 per cent real GDP growth. Still, non-oil GDP should grow by 6.6 per cent. Non-oil GDP growth is uniquely vital in the light of firm petroleum prices. Oil sector is the single largest contributor to UAE's GDP.

The fiscal surplus is expected to reduce from 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 0.46 per cent of GDP by 2010. Surprisingly, inflation is projected to decline this year and next. As such, consumer price index (CPI) stood at a hefty 11 per cent in 2006 only to drop to just over 6 per cent by 2007 and 4.6 per cent in 2008. This improvement is partly attributed to efforts by Dubai with regards to capping annual rental increase at seven per cent.

Nevertheless, the UAE economy will continue suffering from inflationary pressures due to economic policy of linking the dirham to the dollar. Low value of the dollar versus other major currencies such as euro and yen results in what is known as importing inflation. The US maintains a low value for the dollar in order to make American products cheaper abroad as part of efforts to contain trade deficit, which stood at $818 billion in 2006.

Imported foodstuffs: The weaker dollar, near-peak oil prices, as well as faltering application of the rent cap in the emirate of Abu Dhabi may take their toll on retail prices. The prices of imported foodstuffs are under tremendous pressure and are expected to rise sharply in the near future, according to analysts. With government-owned retail outlets offering the highest rates in the country, the private sector can be tempted to increase prices further, pushing the inflation even higher than forecast. Standard Chartered Bank estimates that inflation will be in the vicinity of 7.3 per cent in 2007.

Thanks to firm oil prices, the country's trade balance is projected to post trade balance in the neighbourhood of $50 billion in each of 2007 and 2008. The petroleum sector accounts for three-quarters of total UAE exports. Still, the UAE holds a substantial amount of foreign exchange reserves. The amount is sufficient to cover imports of more than 6 months. This is a sizable quantity, as the planned monetary union within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) requires member states maintaining reserves equivalent to four months' imports.

The GCC states desire to become a monetary union by the year 2010. Yet, authorities in the UAE are determined to further strengthen the country's economic fortunes as evidenced in two strategic plans uncovered during the year. In April, officials revealed the UAE Government Strategy that spans a three-year period (2007 to 2010). The plan is categorised in six sectors: social development, economic development, government sector development, safety and justice, infrastructure, and rural areas development.

Real GDP growth is forecast to average 6.1% a year in 2007-11, reflecting, in large part, buoyant public and private investment expenditure. Consumer price inflation will fall from its 2006 level, largely because increased housing supply will push down rental costs. The dirham's peg to the US dollar will help to contain imported inflation from 2008 as the dollar stabilises.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/07/23/ebr16.htm

 

[Bushroda]

Russia's GDP to grow by 7% in 2007: IMF
Russia Today

The Russian economy has once again outperformed expectations, and is set to grow by 7% this year. These are the latest predictions from the International Monetary Fund, which beat its April forecast of 6.4%.

Russia's economic growth is contributing to a bumper year for the world economy as a whole.

According to the IMF, the world's GDP is predicted to be 5.7% higher in 2007 than 2006, with Russia, India and China responsible for half of that increase.

The Russian economy has grown on average by nearly 7% a year since the 1998 economic crisis, and has benefited significantly from high oil and gas prices in recent years.

However, international economists have often warned Russia that this growth rate is unsustainable unless Russia implements structural reforms, tackles corruption, and diversifies away from natural energy exports.

But since last year, Russia's industry has also grown by an impressive 10%.

 

[genmirajborgza786]

breaking news Dow plunges 350 pts on credit concerns !
By JOE BEL BRUNO, AP Business Writer
6 minutes ago
Wall Street suffered its second-biggest plunge of the year Thursday, leading global markets lower as investors fled stocks amid increasing uneasiness about the mortgage and corporate lending markets. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 350 points, while Treasury yields plunged as investors moved money into bonds.

Investors who had been able to shrug off discomfort about subprime mortgage problems and a more difficult environment for corporate borrowing appeared to finally succumb to those concerns. The Dow's drop is the biggest since it plummeted 416 points on Feb. 27 after a nearly 10 percent decline in Chinese stock markets.

Feeding the selling were concerns that higher corporate borrowing costs will curb the rapid pace of takeovers that have driven major indexes this year. Investors also feared the sluggish environment for home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans would spur debt defaults and weigh on corporate earnings.

"Worries that have been out there for the past couple of years are coming to a head right now," said investment strategist Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research Inc. "It's show time."

Thursday's trading was the latest in a series of frenetic sessions over the past month — many accompanied by triple-digit swings in the Dow — as investors sold on worries about the subprime fallout or bought on optimism that there wouldn't be any widespread problems caused by mortgage failures. Many analysts have described the back-and-forth trading as overwrought and based more on gut emotion than careful consideration of market and economic fundamentals.

Perhaps the clearest sign that investors had abandoned caution was a July 12 rally that hurtled the Dow up 283 points — without any discernible catalyst and before Wall Street had had a chance to see the bulk of second-quarter earnings. When those earnings reports started flowing in, many turned out to be a sobering influence on the market, including news from Countrywide Financial Corp.

So, while the Dow passed 14,000 for the first time last week, investors obviously weren't feeling Thursday that such a lofty level was justified. In mid afternoon trading, the Dow plunged 351.41, or 2.55 percent, to 13,433.66, near its low of the session.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 43.91, or 2.89 percent, to 1,474.18 and the Nasdaq composite index tumbled 72.29, or 2.73 percent, to 2,575.88. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 28.96, or 3.56 percent, to 783.54.

The declines triggered a global selloff in stocks, causing minor losses in Europe to accelerate rapidly along with the Dow's drop. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 3.15 percent, Germany's DAX index dropped 2.39 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 2.78 percent.

Markets were closed in Asia before the rout got under way. Japan's Nikke stock average closed up 0.88 percent and the Shanghai stock market composite added 0.52 percent to an all-time high.

Investors' global flight from equities was a boon for U.S. Treasurys as traders shifted cash into safer investments. Bonds rallied, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.80 percent from 4.90 percent late Wednesday.

Wall Street also found more immediate reasons to sell during the session. Among them was disappointing home sales figures released by the Commerce Department, which further eroded confidence in the housing industry's ability to rebound.

The department reported that sales of new homes fell 6.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 834,000 units, more than triple what had been expected and the largest percentage drop since sales fell by 12.7 percent in January.

This boosted anxiety after quarterly results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. were squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans.

"Wall Street continues to walk a wall of worry," said Ryan Larson, a senior equity trader at Voyageur Asset Management. "The housing market continues to be a story, and nobody knows when it will rebound. But, the real concerns are about credit and oil pushing higher."

Also stunting stocks was a disappointing durable goods report released by the Commerce Department. Though sales of big-ticket items increased by 1.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $217.07 billion, durable goods excluding transportation equipment had an unexpected drop.

The Labor Department reported that jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 301,000 in the week ended July 21, slightly better than analysts' expectations.

Investors also reacted negatively as oil prices climbed to almost $77 per barrel during the session, stoking the market's worries about inflation. However, crude pared gains in the afternoon when a barrel of light sweet crude fell 75 cents at $75.13.

It all led to a frantic day for stock traders.

"It has been pretty volatile as of late, but now fears about a credit crunch are spreading more than they have in the past — and that's causing this drop," said Matt Kelmon, portfolio manager of the Kelmoore Strategy Funds. "That's hurting the financials, and now energy companies are joining the party because oil is so high. They make up a large part of the S&P 500."

Wall Street, now at the peak of second-quarter earnings season, has been extremely volatile lately — a signature of typically slower trading that has been heightened by record runs in major market indexes. On Thursday, declining issues beat advancers by a 15 to 1 basis on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to almost 1.54 billion shares.

Ford Motor rose 22 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $8.20 after it reported cost-cutting and a turnaround in its core automotive operations pushed its second-quarter to a profit. The company had posted seven quarters of losses as it grappled with sluggish sales and a major overhaul of its operations.

Dow component Exxon Mobil's disappointing second-quarter results also weighed on the overall market, even as energy prices continued to spike. Shares fell $4.30, or 4.6 percent, to $88.49 after it reported a smaller profit than analysts expected.

The Nasdaq's losses weren't as steep as other major indexes during the session due to strength from Apple Inc., which surged $7.82, or 5.7 percent, to $145.08. The iPod and iPhone maker's earnings easily surpassed Wall Street projections late Wednesday due to strong sales from its computer offerings.

Home builders sank after several disappointing reports. D.R. Horton fell 48 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $17 after it posted a fiscal third-quarter loss on charges to write down the value of unsold inventory and deposits on land.

Pulte fell 99 cents, or 5 percent, to $19.68 after it posted a second-quarter loss amid the struggling housing market.

Dow Chemical Co. dropped $2.28, or 5 percent, to $43.39 after second-quarter results missed expectations. The company said profit during the quarter rose 2 percent as strong international growth offset weakness in the North American housing and automotive sectors.

___

On the Net:

New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com

Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com



Copyright © 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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[genmirajborgza786]

World stocks fall on rate concern
Stock markets have fallen worldwide amid concerns about the effect of higher global interest rates on company profits, takeovers and loan defaults.
The US's Dow Jones index lost 220.86 points, or 1.6%, to 13564.21, while the S&P 500 shed 1.1% to 1501.33.

In London, the FTSE 100 closed 203.1 points, or 3.2%, lower at 6251.20.

Many indexes have been trading at their highest levels in recent years, buoyed by low rates that fuelled high levels of consumer and corporate spending.

The worries are nothing new, and analysts and investors have been warning that a number of factors are combining to create worrying conditions for equity and credit markets.

Over the past few years there has been a boom in company profits, house price increases, and mergers and acquisitions.

Driving this has low interest rates that have made it cheap for companies and consumers to borrow cash and finance purchases.

That period of cheap cash now seems to been coming to an end with central bank worldwide, including the Bank of England, raising their main rates to slow stubbornly high inflation.

At the same time, oil prices have climbed raising fears that inflation could also pick up again because of the higher energy costs.

Markets are in "risk reduction mode", said Thomas di Galoma of Jefferies & Co.

"You have flight-to-quality buying," he said.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6918071.stm

Published: 2007/07/26 16:58:18 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[genmirajborgza786]

Market Data

Last Updated: Thursday, 26 July, 2007, 18:35 GMT 19:35 UK

Search company or market:
Dow Jones Industrial Average 15 min delay


*All Times GMT Select time span for charts: One month Three months Twelve months Intra-day


index value change % 52 wk-h 52 wk-l
13438.46 346.61 2.51 14000.41 11076.18


Click name to view detailed share information

Top 2 winners

value change %

PROCTER & GAMBLE
63.23 0.25 0.40

3M COMPANY
89.73 0.11 0.12


Top 5 losers

value change %

ALCOA INC
37.96 2.95 7.21

GEN MOTORS
31.80 1.93 5.72

EXXON MOBIL CORP
87.87 4.92 5.30

CATERPILLAR INC
77.35 3.15 3.91

DU PONT (EI) DE NEMOURS
47.48 1.71 3.48


More index pages
Click name to view detailed information and chart


Global
time index value change %
BBC Global 30 Thu 19:39 5750.68 156.82 2.65

Europe / Africa
time index value change %
London

FTSE 100 Thu 16:34 6251.20 203.10 3.15
FTSE 250 Thu 16:42 11033.40 382.50 3.35
FTSE 350 Thu 16:42 3280.20 107.60 3.18
FTSE All Share Thu 16:36 3228.93 104.08 3.12
FTSE Techmark Thu 16:36 1654.04 39.62 2.34


Pan European

FTSEurofirst 300 Thu 17:33 1527.79 43.98 2.80
DJ Eurostoxx 50 Thu 17:20 4252.92 107.98 2.48


Amsterdam AEX Thu 17:06 533.04 13.84 2.53


Frankfurt

Dax Thu 17:31 7508.96 183.59 2.39
MDax Thu 17:31 10534.20 311.26 2.87
SDax Thu 17:31 6113.77 143.92 2.30
TecDax Thu 17:31 899.45 24.32 2.63


Paris Cac 40 Thu 17:10 5675.05 162.06 2.78


Brussels Bel 20 Thu 17:06 4369.97 114.61 2.56


Madrid IBEX Thu 16:38 14540.40 397.30 2.66


Zurich

SMI Thu 16:30 8706.40 216.31 2.42
SPI Thu 16:36 7139.37 171.55 2.35


Moscow RTS Thu 17:09 1996.91 50.91 2.49


Johannesburg All Share Thu 17:18 28585.84 519.43 1.78
South Asia
time index value change %
Bombay BSE Sensex Thu 11:43 15776.31 76.98 0.49


Karachi KSE-100 Thu 18:14 13684.27 89.07 0.66


Colombo CSE All Share Thu 15:09 2460.10 21.90 0.90
Asia Pacific
time index value change %
Sydney All Ordinaries Thu 07:34 6301.40 76.60 1.20


Hong Kong Hang Seng Thu 10:09 23211.69 150.49 0.64


Tokyo Nikkei Thu 07:35 17702.09 156.33 0.88


Singapore STI Thu 18:15 3579.73 65.85 1.80
Americas
time index value change %
New York

Dow Jones Thu 19:16 13423.99 361.08 2.62
Nasdaq Thu 19:16 2576.35 71.82 2.71


Chicago Mercantile Ex.

S&P 500 Thu 19:21 1471.78 46.31 3.05
Russell 2000 Thu 19:21 782.53 29.97 3.69


Buenos Aires General Wed 23:45 2242.78 1.35 0.06


Sao Paulo Bovespa Wed 23:45 55998.54 203.97 0.37


Mexico IPC Wed 23:45 31103.53 358.62 1.14


All prices carried by BBC News Online enjoy indicative status only. The BBC accepts no responsibility for their accuracy or for any use to which they may be put. All share prices and market indexes delayed at least 15 minutes, NYSE 20 minutes. 52 week high and low values are calculated from close price data. Click here for terms and conditions

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http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/2/default.stm

 

[genmirajborgza786]

Market Data

Last Updated: Thursday, 26 July, 2007, 18:37 GMT 19:37 UK

Search company or market:


*All times GMT

FTSE 100 15 min delay



value change %
6251.20 203.10 3.15




Top winner and loser
RESOLUTION ORD 5P
631.50 15.00 2.44

Legal & General Group
138.10 12.40 8.24




Dow Jones 15 min delay



value change %
13426.02 359.05 2.60




Top winner and loser
PROCTER & GAMBLE
63.21 0.23 0.37

ALCOA INC
37.88 3.03 7.41




Nasdaq 15 min delay



value change %
2575.55 72.62 2.74


Top winner and loser
BAIDU.COM INC ADS
205.80 22.67 12.37

AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES
37.53 9.66 20.47

BBC Global 30



value change %
5748.24 159.26 2.70

Cac 40 15 min delay

value change %
5675.05 162.06 2.78


No winners
Top loser
MICHELIN
93.56 6.05 6.07




Dax 15 min delay

value change %
7508.96 183.59 2.39




Top winner and loser
RWE AG ST O.N.
78.49 0.23 0.29

SIEMENS AG NA
93.51 5.60 5.62

Market reports:
London | Paris | Frankfurt | Wall Street | Tokyo




Share Prices Summaries: London | NYSE | Nasdaq | Paris | Frankfurt



Search share prices by name or symbol*: View London's top shares by sector

Automobiles & Parts Banks Basic Resources Chemicals Construction & Materials Financial Services Food & Beverage Health Care Industrial Goods & Services Insurance Media Oil & Gas Personal & Household Goods Retail Technology Telecommunications Travel & Leisure Utilities

* In London, New York, Paris, Frankfurt and on Nasdaq.
View London's top shares by alphabet
3i - Cab | Cad - GAL | Gal - LAI | Lan - Ree | Reg - Tri | TUL - Yel | Popular shares


Currencies More currencies


£ $ € ¥
£ - 2.0516 1.4919 243.6150

$ 0.4875 - 0.7272 118.7550

€ 0.6704 1.3751 - 163.2800

¥ 0.0041 0.0084 0.0061 -
Commodities
More commodities

price change %
Brent Crude Oil $/barrel 77.28 2.03 2.7

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil $/barrel 76.88 3.56 4.9

Forex Gold Index $/oz 670.00 4.75 0.7

Coffee "C" Futures US cents/pound 111.00 3.20 2.8

Copper 3mo Unofficial CLOSE $/m tonne 7805.00 12.50 0.2
All prices carried by BBC News Online enjoy indicative status only. The BBC accepts no responsibility for their accuracy or for any use to which they may be put. All share prices and market indexes delayed at least 15 minutes, NYSE 20 minutes. 52 week high and low values are calculated from close price data. Click here for terms and conditions

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