A.P. Richelieu
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I seldom post on this forum. Primarily because speculation is something which I do not believe in.
However, having worked in some capacity with the armed forces. The following pieces of information is what ALL the stakeholders have mentioned with consistency (Stakeholders also include the much famed pilots).
However for reasons I will not disclose the entire matter.
1) Mig was downned by Wg Cmdr.
2) Su-30 was downed by S/L Hassan
3) PAF lost no air assets. Both the jets landed back safely. (Which ones, I will not detest).
4) Both the country's are at the brink of war even right now. Literally.
5) Non-conventional attacks are on cards. Since Mod's is paranoid. He has lost trust in his high command to carry out such raids. The pilot capture has been very unpleasant for India. Particularly IAF.
6) Entire western air command of IAF has been reshuffled. From AOC to flight commanders of fighter squadrons. New AOC has been given a task to fill the gap by whatever means. Bring back glory.
India’s claim that they shot down an F-16 which crashed a few km inside Pakistan is suspicious for a reason not mentioned.
Clearly the use of F-16s is a sensitive issue.
I really doubt that PAF for that reason will let F-16s near the border when a conflict ensues.
They are much more likely to stay behind and engage with BVR missiles.
Only 1-2 days before PAF was significantly raising its level of preparedness and PDF comments were jubilant about Mirages and F-16 patrolling en masse.
From that, I draw the conclusion that PAF still considers the F-16 its primary line of defense.
It would be very surprising if they were totally absent when PAF is attacking Indian bases.
I believe the plan was that if the strike could get through without opposition, the F-16s would be left out, but as soon as Su-30MKIs were in the picture, PAF would rather take the fallout of US wrath than lose one or more planes.
It is clearly not advantageous for PAF to admit publicly that F-16s were used.
They will always claim any kills were made by something else, so why not the JF-17.
The MiG kill is much more likely to have been made by a JF-17.