Will US become a defaulter ?

[Chinese-Dragon]

if the American economy did actually collapse then you need to take into account the effect on the euro zone as well. your being a bit optimistic with that 2 trillion. then you need to look at the huge export dip to America and the Euro zone. And the resulting loss of Jobs in China's export sector and the rapid domestic inflation from the weak dollar and probably collapse of the EU.

The USA can survive with only $140 billion in reserves. Even though they need to pay interest rates on the largest national debt in the world.

No matter how much our $3 trillion decreases via currency collapses (highly unlikely scenario)... it will still be more than we need to service our debts.

 

[La ResistanceZ]

nice watch

 

[twoplustwoisfour]

No matter how much our $3 trillion decreases via currency collapses (highly unlikely scenario)... it will still be more than we need to service our debts.

Servicing Debt is just a part of the fallout. What about the millions of jobs lost due to falling exports to the US?

 

[Jade]

What people seem to forget, we are huge and powerful. If you are hopeful we will break up, not gonna happen. Many countries defualt here and there. They are all around (Brazil, pakistan, many others) with little real change. Life goes on, you just maybe wait on that new car. Then the cycle goes back around, you're swimming in cash again and you buy two new cars.

Brazil and Pakistan are different and US is different. Credit crisis is an example

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Servicing Debt is just a part of the fallout. What about the millions of jobs lost due to falling exports to the US?

Worldwide Exports already collapsed by a greater amount, during the 2008 Credit Crunch.

Yet we still grew at near double-digit growth rates, while the world was in recession.

There was a lot of unemployment too, but migrant workers still have the "safety net" of being able to go back to work on their family farms, if they lose their jobs in the city.

Also, people forget that exports only make up 27% of our economy. And out of total exports, only 16% go to America.

Everyone thought we would be in trouble during the Credit Crunch, because of the huge loss of exports to the West, and the resulting large-scale unemployment.

But we handled it, and we still managed to maintain the highest growth rate of any major economy.

 

[Juice]

Brazil and Pakistan are different and US is different. Credit crisis is an example

You are right, will effect us MUCH less.

 

[Stealth IFV]

We've shouldered most of the US recession's brunt, and Canada is one of the most wealthy and successful places on the face of this earth. Knock on wood, but the US economy coupled with it's 90% trade partner Canada and pacified and open Mexico will dominate the face of this earth for decades to come, sit on it and wallow.

 

[Thomas]

That depends on how you define doomsday…If a country defaults, its currency would become less valuable, interest rate will rise, inflation will rise, its government bonds will become worthless, taxes could rise, the investments will fall, GDP output will fall, un employment will rise, and, above all, it will lose its independency on fiscal and monetary policy.

The dollar dramatically weakens making U.S. exports cheaper, creating more jobs, lowering the trade deficit. China's currency becomes stronger making its exports more expensive. Inflation increases and jobs are lost due to less export demand.

 

[Stealth IFV]

The only reason people puff their chests is because of their inability to do anything against terrorism, and have us burden the costs and then point at these tangible losses, while others copy and steal defense items or run their economies with zero oversight and proclaim lightspeed growth. Give me a break.

 

[aakash_2410]

Worldwide Exports already collapsed by a greater amount, during the 2008 Credit Crunch.

Yet we still grew at near double-digit growth rates.

There was a lot of unemployment too, but migrant workers still have the "safety net" of being able to go back to work on their family farms, if they lose their jobs in the city.

Also, people forget that exports only make up 27% of our economy. And out of total exports, only 16% go to America.

Everyone thought we would be in trouble during the Credit Crunch, because of the huge loss of exports, and the resulting unemployment. But we saw what happened instead.

China's economy grew at 9%. And 9% is not a double digit unless you write it 09%. lool

The industrial sector employs 46.8% people and China's exports to US makes 20% of its' total exports not 16%.

Economy of the People's Republic of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[VCheng]

An important aspect is that the long term demographics of China turn markedly unfavorable by 2030 to 2050, thereby removing its primary advantage of cheap manpower, and increasing burden of retirees per worker. The population pyramid of the US is far more steady.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China's economy grew at 9%. And 9% is not a double digit unless you write it 09%. lool

Learn to read please.

Yet we still grew at near double-digit growth rates, while the world was in recession.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

An important aspect is that the long term demographics of China turn markedly unfavorable by 2030 to 2050, thereby removing its primary advantage of cheap manpower, and increasing burden of retirees per worker. The population pyramid of the US is far more steady.

Those demographic projections are only valid if we assume that the one-Child policy remains in place.

In fact, the Chinese leadership has been aware of this issue for some time.

We are not a democracy, the Chinese leadership can mofidy or remove the one-child policy at any time. (They have already created a lot of exceptions on a regional basis).

This problem can be fixed with one policy reversal, and we still have several DECADES before the demographic changes kick in.

Other issues are far more worrying.

 

[VCheng]

Those demographic projections are only valid if we assume that the one-Child policy remains in place.

In fact, the Chinese leadership has been aware of this issue for some time.

We are not a democracy, the Chinese leadership can mofidy or remove the one-child policy at any time. (They have already created a lot of exceptions on a regional basis).

This problem can be fixed with one policy reversal, and we still have several DECADES before the demographic changes kick in.

Other issues are far more worrying.

Yes, I am aware of the changes in the one-child policy. I even posted a graph from The Economist about this a while ago. Even taking those changes into account, my statements about the long term demographic changes as given above remain correct.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Yes, I am aware of the changes in the one-child policy. I even posted a graph from The Economist about this a while ago. Even taking those changes into account, my statements about the long term demographic changes as given above remain correct.

Do you have any data to show the demographic predictions, after the one-child policy is removed completely?

Or (more likely), if it becomes a "two-child" policy in the near future?