Will US become a defaulter ?

[VCheng]

Do you have any data to show the demographic predictions, after the one-child policy is removed completely?

Or more likely, if it becomes a "two-child" policy in the near future?

There are detailed think tank studies on this subject, but most are not public as of yet. Even without those, it is fairly simple to run these projections using Excel, with some simplifying assumptions.

You may find this link of interest:

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA515155&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

 

[53fd]

Servicing Debt is just a part of the fallout. What about the millions of jobs lost due to falling exports to the US?

China, unlike India that excels in providing services, invests in infrastructure development & manufacturing throughout the world, something the entire world has a real need for. It has already coped with the credit crunch, & is continuing to grow at a fast pace.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

There are think tank studies on this subject, but are not public as of yet. Even without those, it is fairly simple to run these projections using Excel, with some simplifying assumptions.

Sure, I just wanted some clarifications on this statement:

Even taking those changes into account, my statements about the long term demographic changes as given above remain correct.

Have you seen any demographic data, that takes into account a likely change towards the two-child policy in the near future, or a complete removal of the one-child policy in the near future?

Both of which are decisions that can be implemented instantly by the Chinese government at any time, since we are of course, not a democracy.

(And also considering the fact that we still have many decades before these demographic predictions come into effect. The Chinese government can be called many things, but they are not slow.)

 

[Jade]

The dollar dramatically weakens making U.S. exports cheaper, creating more jobs, lowering the trade deficit. China's currency becomes stronger making its exports more expensive. Inflation increases and jobs are lost due to less export demand.

That is applicable in normal times.
Any country defaulting will have less or no investments. Less investments means less output, less exports and fewer jobs.

 

[Juice]

nice watch

Lol, using partisan political pieces to make your point is a little disingenous. I could likely find a Democrat piece that claimed Republicans endorsed canniblism

 

[Jade]

You are right, will effect us MUCH less.

Yes you are rigth, US will have less effect. The world has lot more interests invested in US then ever in Brazil or Pakistan

 

[Thomas]

That is applicable in normal times.
Any country defaulting will have less or no investments. Less investments means less output, less exports and fewer jobs.

Not necessarily since tangible investments become cheaper. In other words bargain prices for major brand names able to export cheaply

 

[Jade]

Not necesarily since tangible investments become cheaper. in other words bargin prices for major brand names able to export cheaply.

I could not understand what do you mean by 'tangible investments become cheaper'.

However, even when US defaults, it may not have large effect on its output because US government spending constitutes only 30% of its whole GDP, while 70% comes from private sector that is very vibrant and have thier portifolios spread across the globe

 

[GORKHALI]

It's really nice and again surprised to see so much hatred out here that despite country economy and military establisment in deep sh*t they laughing,swearing,some even placed 3wishes etc etc about a so not performing Superpower....If these guys killed muslims then muslim ain't are saint .Those who were killed deserves this ,yes!there is co lateral damage but Still this is needed.

 

[Thomas]

I could not understand what do you mean by 'tangible investments become cheaper'.

However, even when US defaults, it may not have large effect on its output because US government spending constitutes only 30% of its whole GDP, while 70% comes from private sector that is very vibrant and have thier portifolios spread across the globe

A tangible investment is resources, land, companies, ECT.

 

[Jade]

A tangible investment is resources, land, companies, ECT.

Now I understand; however, I feel any country that has no investments will have its exports cripled and brands that don't charge premium on thier brand equity would not remain any more a brand

 

[Thomas]

Now I understand; however, I feel any country that has no investments will have its exports cripled.

anyone with money will tell you the best time to buy is during the bad times. Your belief that there would be no investors doesn't hold much water.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

anyone with money will tell you the best time to buy is during the bad times.

That's true, it is best to buy assets during the bad times (recessions), because they can be bought very cheaply.

However, that is good for the buyer... not the seller.

 

[Jade]

anyone with money will tell you the best time to buy is during the bad times. Your belief that there would be no investors doesn't hold much water.

I think we are using 'investments' differently. In economics, any economic activity that generate output is invesments, while from a personal front 'investments' equal to savings or buying financial assets such as stock

What I mean is would GE/Micosoft invest in Zimbabwe?

 

[Bond]

Nope. Not going to happen. The government is the sole supplier of the sovereign currency. The government has a monopoly on money & carries NO foreign currency denominated debt. If they have fiscal problems they simply print more. They press a button on a computer and magic money appears in an account. That’s literally how it works. The US government is not a household or a state. They are not Greece who does not print their own currency. It’s ENTIRELY different.

Will the U.S. default? Is it really possible?

Interesting read.