PARIKRAMA
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WILL THE RUSSIA-PAKISTAN MILITARY EXERCISE MAKE NEW DELHI-MOSCOW TIES SOUR?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the joint press statements, in New Delhi on 11 December 2014. Image courtesy PIB
India may not officially give its take ever on this, but it is one development which won’t go down well with the Indian government and won’t be good for Indo-Russian relationship: the decision of Russia and Pakistan to hold joint military exercises first time ever.
The question is will India formally react to the Russia-Pakistan bonhomie? If it does and the Ministry of External Affairs issues a formal statement, though unlikely as per this writer’s understanding, how will India react? Will India react like a jilted lover or will India be more understanding and react like a mature friend?
Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Russia in July for attending the Brics summit. Will this development affect Modi's Russia visit? Will the increasing Russia-Pakistan proximity pour cold water on Modi’s plans to step up strategic engagement with the erstwhile tried and trusted partner like Russia?
A key Indian official this writer spoke to sought to play down the decision of Russia and Pakistan, reached during a meeting in Moscow between Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu.
The official contended that India is not going to react like a jilted lover and Indo-Russian partnership is much more important and on a far higher strategic plane. What is the big deal about holding joint military exercises after all? Hasn’t India conducted joint military exercises with a country like China with which India has fought a war?
There are two ways of looking at the increasing bonhomie between Moscow and Islamabad. One is the emotive way of bilateral relations which have traditionally been very warm though the two sides have not made much song and dance about it. The other is the cold strategic calculus and fast changing geopolitics.
On the emotional plane of bilateral relations, India may act like a possessive spouse and howl at Russia being wooed by a new suitor, Pakistan. A discernible chill has set in Indo-Russian relations. This is visible from the declining bilateral trade which was below $10 billion last year and is likely to tumble further this year. This is despite the fact that the two sides had vowed to raise their bilateral trade to $20 billion in 2015!
But then Russia itself cannot escape the blame for this state of affairs. True, Russians were miffed over the fact that Indian defence import orders were drying up and the United States edged past Russia last year to become India’s largest armament exporter. But that doesn’t mean that Russia should lift its embargo on sale of weaponry to Pakistan as it did last year.
The decision of Russia and Pakistan to hold joint military exercises is nothing in comparison to the much bigger red rag the Russians waved at India last year. Sergey Chemezov, the head of Rostec Corporation, inexplicably went on record saying last year that Russia was open to military-technological cooperation with Pakistan and the negotiations on the sales of Mi-35 multipurpose military transport helicopters to that country were already underway.
What was Chemezov trying to do? Pursuing a few million dollar worth military sale order with Pakistan and ignoring the tens of billions worth potential that India offers to Russia? That was poor diplomacy by Russia and bad way of fostering military-technological cooperation between Russia and India.
However, Indian pressure has worked so far and no Russian official has shot off his mouth on sale of Russian attack helicopters to Pakistan since then.
The other way of looking at increasing bonhomie between Russia and Pakistan is the fast-changing strategic matrix in the region.
Russia knows the importance of Pakistan as American and NATO troops have already started pulling out of Afghanistan. By next year end, Afghanistan will be completely on its own. Pakistan has been playing the waiting game for long and biding for its time.
Russia wants to keep Pakistan in good humour and needs Pakistan’s services in Afghanistan, something that China has been doing for decades. India understands the cold strategic reality and for this reason will have to look the other way when Russia starts to get closer to Pakistan.
The bottom line is this: joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan won’t matter much and won’t upset the strategic equation in the region. But Russia should refrain from selling military hardware and attack helicopters to Pakistan. India and Russia need to work very closely and behave maturely.
Will the Russia-Pakistan military exercise make New Delhi-Moscow ties sour? - Firstpost
Personal Opinion: I smell 2 things - Pressure tactic and scent of $$$
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the joint press statements, in New Delhi on 11 December 2014. Image courtesy PIB
India may not officially give its take ever on this, but it is one development which won’t go down well with the Indian government and won’t be good for Indo-Russian relationship: the decision of Russia and Pakistan to hold joint military exercises first time ever.
The question is will India formally react to the Russia-Pakistan bonhomie? If it does and the Ministry of External Affairs issues a formal statement, though unlikely as per this writer’s understanding, how will India react? Will India react like a jilted lover or will India be more understanding and react like a mature friend?
Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Russia in July for attending the Brics summit. Will this development affect Modi's Russia visit? Will the increasing Russia-Pakistan proximity pour cold water on Modi’s plans to step up strategic engagement with the erstwhile tried and trusted partner like Russia?
A key Indian official this writer spoke to sought to play down the decision of Russia and Pakistan, reached during a meeting in Moscow between Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu.
The official contended that India is not going to react like a jilted lover and Indo-Russian partnership is much more important and on a far higher strategic plane. What is the big deal about holding joint military exercises after all? Hasn’t India conducted joint military exercises with a country like China with which India has fought a war?
There are two ways of looking at the increasing bonhomie between Moscow and Islamabad. One is the emotive way of bilateral relations which have traditionally been very warm though the two sides have not made much song and dance about it. The other is the cold strategic calculus and fast changing geopolitics.
On the emotional plane of bilateral relations, India may act like a possessive spouse and howl at Russia being wooed by a new suitor, Pakistan. A discernible chill has set in Indo-Russian relations. This is visible from the declining bilateral trade which was below $10 billion last year and is likely to tumble further this year. This is despite the fact that the two sides had vowed to raise their bilateral trade to $20 billion in 2015!
But then Russia itself cannot escape the blame for this state of affairs. True, Russians were miffed over the fact that Indian defence import orders were drying up and the United States edged past Russia last year to become India’s largest armament exporter. But that doesn’t mean that Russia should lift its embargo on sale of weaponry to Pakistan as it did last year.
The decision of Russia and Pakistan to hold joint military exercises is nothing in comparison to the much bigger red rag the Russians waved at India last year. Sergey Chemezov, the head of Rostec Corporation, inexplicably went on record saying last year that Russia was open to military-technological cooperation with Pakistan and the negotiations on the sales of Mi-35 multipurpose military transport helicopters to that country were already underway.
What was Chemezov trying to do? Pursuing a few million dollar worth military sale order with Pakistan and ignoring the tens of billions worth potential that India offers to Russia? That was poor diplomacy by Russia and bad way of fostering military-technological cooperation between Russia and India.
However, Indian pressure has worked so far and no Russian official has shot off his mouth on sale of Russian attack helicopters to Pakistan since then.
The other way of looking at increasing bonhomie between Russia and Pakistan is the fast-changing strategic matrix in the region.
Russia knows the importance of Pakistan as American and NATO troops have already started pulling out of Afghanistan. By next year end, Afghanistan will be completely on its own. Pakistan has been playing the waiting game for long and biding for its time.
Russia wants to keep Pakistan in good humour and needs Pakistan’s services in Afghanistan, something that China has been doing for decades. India understands the cold strategic reality and for this reason will have to look the other way when Russia starts to get closer to Pakistan.
The bottom line is this: joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan won’t matter much and won’t upset the strategic equation in the region. But Russia should refrain from selling military hardware and attack helicopters to Pakistan. India and Russia need to work very closely and behave maturely.
Will the Russia-Pakistan military exercise make New Delhi-Moscow ties sour? - Firstpost
Personal Opinion: I smell 2 things - Pressure tactic and scent of $$$
