SUMMARY:
Geographic isolation, historical misfortune and deliberate choice combine to make the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh India's most isolated and among it least developed. As home to 26 major tribal groups, Arunachal is something of an anthropologist's dream, but a political and developmental nightmare. Much of the northern border with China remains disputed territory. This contributed to the 1962 Sino-Indian war that was waged mainly in Arunachal and ended in India's humiliating defeat. As a result, the state has remained "sensitive" from India's security perspective and even Indian citizens require special permission to visit it. This has severely hampered development, but the resulting isolation has not been entirely unwelcome to its xenophobic tribal inhabitants. In fact, the major source of resentment against the Center is not the serious developmental neglect, but rather the settlement in Arunachal of Chakma and Hajong refugees of Bangladeshi origin in 1964, and their continued presence in the state. Arunachal has significant potential in hydropower, forestry and tourism but these are unlikely to be developed quickly until a political consensus is reached on the fundamental question: Does the state want tribal cultural isolation or economic development? END SUMMARY. --------------------------------------------- ---- Arunachal Pradesh: Geographic Isolation --------------------------------------------- ----
¶2. (U) Arunachal Pradesh is the largest state in the northeast in terms of area (32,000 square miles) and it borders China, Burma and Bhutan as well as the Indian states of Assam and Nagaland. With a little over one million inhabitants, the density of population (31 per square mile) is the lowest among all Indian states. More than 80 percent of Arunachal's land area is covered with forest and parts of the state remain unexplored. It has limited transport and communication infrastructure. With few highways, helicopter services or footpaths are the main transportation lifelines. The state's population is largely tribal, with 26 dominant tribes, each with its own language and customs, and literally hundreds of sub-groups. Villages are administered in consultation with the nominated village headman and the elected panchayat (local self-government) leader. Several tribes practice Donyi Polo, a religion worshipping the sun and the moon, whereas others practice animism. Missionaries have made few inroads here. Polygamy is permitted and practiced by some tribal elites. Two of the tribes exist in a master-slave relationship (Ref A). According to 2001 census figures, overall literacy (54.3%; male -- 64%, female -- 44%) was ten points below the all-India average. The 2002 GOI Economic Survey showed a sex ratio heavily biased against women (901 females to 1000 males) and infant mortality surprisingly low at 40/1,000. These figures are difficult to explain, as the cultures do not practice gender preference or female infanticide, and may simply reflect counting errors in this remote and sparsely populated state. --------------------------------------------- -----
Arunachal Pradesh: Historical Misfortune --------------------------------------------- ------
¶3. (C) China invaded parts of Arunachal Pradesh during the 1962 conflict and India's border with southern Tibet remains disputed. Arunachal undoubtedly occupies a space in China's South Asia strategy. During the Calcutta Principal Officer's (PO) visit in December 2004, a senior minister of the Arunachal Pradesh Government recalled how a Chinese government official, a few months previously, had told him that he would not require a visa to go to Kunming (in China) as he was from Arunachal Pradesh. As the Indian and Chinese governments engage in a dialog over the border issue, Arunachal Pradesh's strategic importance has increased. According to media reports, the Tawang District in north Arunachal Pradesh bordering Tibet is being contemplated for a swap with China in exchange for Aksai Chin in the Ladakh region. In the last week of November 2004, then Indian National Security Advisor J.N. Dixit went to Beijing, and at the same time Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran went to Arunachal. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Gegong Apang told the PO that Saran did not discuss the GOI's deliberations with China during the visit. He expressed dissatisfaction over this, saying that no resolution of the border issue, including territorial exchange, would be possible without taking the people of Arunachal Pradesh into confidence. Apang subsequently conveyed the same message to the GOI by leaking his own comments in this portion of the meeting to the local media. Nonetheless, Apang expressed strong interest in developing border trade with China. (Note: Given these negotiations, perhaps it is no coincidence that Arunachal Pradesh's new Governor, S.K. Singh, sworn in on December 16, 2004, is a former Foreign Secretary of India.)
¶4. (C)
Lack of development combined with isolation from the Indian "mainland" have led some in Arunachal's intelligentsia to develop a "pro-China" slant. During an informal interaction, several student leaders and human rights activists candidly admitted their pro-Chinese tilt to the PO, even saying that living with China would be better than living with India.
Arunachal, like other parts of northeast India, is ethnically and culturally more akin to their Tibetan and South East Asian cousins than to the majority of Indian citizens, but these statements appeared more a product of frustration than of any careful assessment of what costs any serious effort at secession would entail. --------------------------------------------- ------------------
Arunachal Pradesh: Isolation as a Deliberate Choice --------------------------------------------- ------------------
¶5. (C) Arunachal Pradesh's indigenous communities are "protected" through the system of Inner Line Permits devised by the British. No "outsider" can enter Arunachal Pradesh without an Inner Line (IL) or a Protected Area Permit (PAP). Neither can they buy land, start a business or take up employment. While accompanying the PO in December 2004, Calcutta's Economic FSN, an Indian citizen, was even enjoined from "taking photographs" in Arunachal on the IL permit issued to him. The people of Arunachal, its political leaders, government officials and civil society representatives are unanimous about retaining the Inner Line system. They are convinced that by keeping outsiders away, the Inner Line is protecting the life and culture of the indigenous people. The Chief Minister explained that without the Inner Line restrictions, the tribes would lose their land to people from mainland India. Although Hindi is the state's official language, and "Jai Hind" is a common greeting, the passion to retain the Inner Line is an expression of the underlying resistance to integrate with the Indian mainstream that has a separate ethnic, cultural and linguistic identity. When PO suggested that these restrictions inhibit investment and tourism -- including from the U.S. -- virtually all of his interlocutors appeared willing to pay this price to preserve the state's tribal identity.
¶6. (C) Arunachal's long-standing feud with the Chakma-Hajong refugees highlight this desire for preservation of indigenous rights in its extreme form. The Chakmas and the Hajongs are tribes evicted from Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts. In 1964, about two thousand families were resettled in refugee enclaves in Arunachal's Tirap Division, presumably because the GOI believed that Arunachal, as the least densely populated state in India, could most easily accommodate them. Since then, the Chakma and the Hajongs have grown in numbers whose reliable estimates are either not available or not disclosed. Representatives of indigenous people's organizations have their own estimates -- which to us do not appear credible -- that predict that Chakma-Hajongs will outnumber Arunachal tribes in the not too distant future. Such portents are discussed and debated at group meetings, reinforcing the tension and the animosity against Chakmas and other "outsiders". In a meeting with the PO a leader of the largest student group in Arunachal went so far as to suggest that his organization might lead efforts to violently drive out the Chakmas in future if the GOI did not take action to resettle them elsewhere. Indeed, on December 10, 2004, the National Liberation Front of Arunachal (NLFA) - a tribal militant outfit - directed Arunachal's Chakma-Hajong refugees to leave the state in two months. The directive came after a Singpho tribal leader was abducted and killed in late November, allegedly by the Chakmas.
¶7. (U) In contrast, there is much less animosity against the Tibetan refugee enclaves. This is partly because their numbers are fewer and partly because they have significant ethnic and religious affinity with some of the Arunachalese. For example, the largest Tibetan Buddhist monastery outside of Tibet is at Tawang in Arunachal. In any case, as part of its public relation exercise, the state government organizes conducted tours of Tibetan refugee camps.
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Arunachal Pradesh: The Development Conundrum --------------------------------------------- ----------------
¶8. (SBU) As it comes in contact with the outside world, Arunachal tribal society is showing signs of confusion. In a smoky Mishmi longhouse, middle-aged tribal women with enormous plugs in their earlobes stared at the PO as he squatted by the fire and sipped rice beer under racks of charred wild cattle skulls. Asked through an interpreter what they found so interesting, they replied that they had seen "white" people on the cable television in their longhouse but that they had not believed, until just then, that such people existed in real life. As awareness of material comforts grows, societal leaders will have to decide how to reconcile the appetite for material development with the tribal way of life. Elsewhere these transitions have sometimes led to severe dislocation or even the extinction of tribal culture. As a result, most students' bodies and other civil society organizations -- representing tribal pressure groups -are vehemently opposed to developments such as the large hydroelectric power projects that the Government of India is proposing and, in some cases, has started building. The arguments against these projects are familiar -- destruction of fragile biodiversity, displacement/submergence of tribal villages and the resulting socio-economic disruptions, or seismic hazards. While some of these concerns are genuine (especially the seismic concerns), one suspects many are being driven by simple xenophobia. Ironically, the groups making these arguments live in modern homes in the capital, wear Western clothes for the most part, and often have a Western education. But they are trying to preserve "their" way of life back in the villages. Hence the confusion: They say the people of Arunachal are not averse to shopping malls, but they will not let the owner of the shop be from Calcutta, Mumbai or New Delhi. They say they want factories and projects, but will not ease IL or PAP restrictions to enable the engineers and executives to travel to the state at short notice.
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Arunachal Pradesh: State Politics -----------------------------------------
¶9. (C) For 20 of the last 24 years, Apang has been Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh. A member of the Adi tribe, he has been able to rally support across the state, usually under the banner of the Congress Party. However, it is clear that his political weathervane is driven solely and exclusively by his calculation of what party in New Delhi can provide the most benefits to his state. This explains his sudden conversion to the BJP in August 2003 (Ref B) and it also explains his return to the Congress fold under the current Congress-led coalition. The voters of the state appear to be similarly motivated, electing -- for the first time -- nine BJP Members of Legislative Assembly (out of 60 total) in the 2004 elections when the BJP was seen as frontrunners to return to power at the Center. --------------------------------------------- ---- Arunachal Pradesh: Economic Resources --------------------------------------------- -----
¶10. (U) Arunachal has three primary areas of economic potential: hydropower, forest-based industries, and tourism. With nearly 50,000 MW of hydroelectricity potential, Chief Minister Gegong Apang envisions his state as the "powerhouse of India." The Indian government, through the North East Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO) and National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), has identified 68 major power projects. Of these NEEPCO has completed one (Ranaganadi Stage 1) and one is under construction (Kameng); NHPC is also building the 2,000 MW Subansiri (Lower) with a scheduled completion date of 2010. Basic survey and infrastructure development is underway for eight other of these projects. The state government would also like to encourage its own medium-size projects, generating 100-500 MW, and claims it is open to "outside" investment -- including U.S.-sourced investment -- through the build-operate-transfer route. The state is trying to overcome objections to these projects by holding public hearings where villagers participate.
¶11. (U) According to the state Forest Department, Arunachal's forests generate 30,000 cubic feet per year of Non-Timber Forest Produce (cane, bamboo, etc.) that is supplied to the local factories. Nearly 6,000 hectares of forest is replanted every year. Agriculture is carried out primarily through low-productivity slash-and-burn (jhum) technique, which, given the low density of population, is not currently an environmental threat. Despite its vast tourism potential, the infrastructure is limited and the obstacles -- such as the permit system -- substantial. --------------------------------------------- --
Arunachal Pradesh: American Interests --------------------------------------------- --
¶12. (C) The U.S. has a significant interest in the peaceful resolution of the Sino-Indian border dispute, but this is an area where progress is likely to be made in capitals, not in the region. In the future there may be prospects for U.S. equipment sales or direct investment in hydropower projects or forest-based industries. When conditions allow, U.S. cultural and adventure tourism to Arunachal may expand considerably. One concern was an allegation, directed to the PO by an NGO activist, that the U.S. bore indirect responsibility for the conditions that generated the Chakma exodus from Bangladesh and therefore should assume a central role in assuring their return or their relocation and resettlement somewhere other than in Arunachal. The PO expressed sympathy for their plight, but disavowed any U.S. responsibility for finding a lasting solution to remedy it.
¶13. (C)
COMMENT:
Arunachal Pradesh may be an anthropologist's dream, but it seems a politician and an economist's nightmare. Proponents of the state's indigenous people's interests are torn between bringing modern education, health and other civic amenities to the tribes and keeping them pristine, isolated from the world by geography and the regulations of the Inner Line. Many claim that the Government of India deliberately did not build road infrastructure in the state for fear the Chinese Army might use it in an invasion. In any case, given Arunachal's frontline position vis-`-vis China, the GOI does not seem ready to press fresh initiatives in the region, with the possible exception of some hydropower for export to "mainland" India. The net result is that Arunachal Pradesh remains, and is likely to continue to remain, isolated from the Indian mainstream. END COMMENT. SIBLEY
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