OrionHunter
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If the BJP forms the government after the Lok Sabha elections to be held in April-May 2014, will the relations of the two countries again go on a war and peace binge? What makes the situation more intriguing is that Nawaz Sharif is back in power in Pakistan and placed quite comfortably in the new democratic setup.
One can be sure then that however ignitable the BJP may be, or may seem to be, it understands what exactly fire can and cannot do. No war is good news. But that’s only half of the India-Pakistan story. The whole region has waiting since ages for the other half. Can BJP make peace with Pakistan?
A good part of the peace overture of BJP’s earlier government can certainly be attributed to the acumen and the gentleman repute of its leader, Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He is no more there. The party is now contesting elections under the leadership of its Gujrat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi.
Modi has two claims to fame, one is the Gujrat pogrom and the other is his so-called Gujrat model of development.
The Gujrat pogrom or the anti-Muslim riots in the state of Gujrat happened in February-March 2002 – that is in the middle of Operation Parakram, the great Indo-Pak military mobilisation. Narendra Modi was heading the BJP’s government in Gujrat. The riots that took 1000 to 2000 lives are seen as another major event in the regions treacherous communal history.
Modi has faced a range of charges from plotting and abetting the riots to not doing enough to prevent them. The courts have, however, not been able to pin him down, but in popular perceptions he is identified not only as the person responsible for the Gujrat killings but also as an ardent anti-Muslim and communalist politician.
The Gujrat pogrom is used by militant groups in Pakistan, like Jamaat-ud-Dawa, to whip up anti-India, anti-Hindu sentiments among their cadres and sympathisers. They present it is the latest and undeniable proof of Hindu cruelty towards Muslims. Pictures of charred bodies ostensibly of Muslim victims of Gujrat adorn their banners. Modi makes a perfect Hindu effigy that is burnt at the end of each of their rallies.
So, can Modi ride a bus to cross Wagha to meet Sharif at his Raiwind palace?
L K Advani was also implicated for a role in the demolition of the Babri mosque in 1992 but that did not bar Vajpayee or Nawaz Sharif to take a peace initiative. Can we then assume that riots tainted Modi won’t face a hurdle either?
I am afraid Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will find it a bit difficult to shake hands with Modi even if he comes clad in a green kurta, instead of a saffron one. Sharif might put too much at stake if he dares to do so, or so it seems at the moment, given the current balance of power among and within various state and non-state actors in Pakistan.
Considering the recent backtracking by his government on important diplomatic appointments, it is evident that Sharif will not poke into the beehive. Another hard pre-condition for him will be to bring Imran Khan on board because if PTI decides to stand against the initiative, Sharif will risk losing some turf to him in its power base, Punjab. Add to this, the complexity of the situation at the western border which too, is a vicious mix of state and non-state actors; at a time when the US is withdrawing from the region. The uncertainties of the western side will cast a long shadow on the east side.
Modi himself might face a somewhat similar situation at home with the far right pressing for some tough pre-conditions for talks with Pakistan.
Because of the Gujrat-pogrom, Modi does not cut the right figure for leading a public and popular act to end the Indo-Pak conflict. He has a negative aura and carries heavy baggage. He will probably have to find his double to do the job. Can the other Modi, the Gujrat-Model one, fill in and pull out some tricks?
His model rests on attracting and facilitating large capital inflows and undertaking mega projects that make ‘development’ look sexy. (Interestingly, the ruling party in Pakistan shares the same percepts about development.) What could the same approach do in the context of India-Pakistan relations? I think it will be difficult to achieve any major improvements in the investment environ in the immediate future, as investors take into considerations a lot of other factors, besides governmental agreements, before actually venturing into a new market.
Do we then end up with the lackluster CBMs like the enlargement of the list of tradable commodities, while the major discourse in both the countries remain dominated by the anti-each other sloganeering?
With Modi in saddle, war may not become a probability but chances of peace do not brighten either.
Will Prime Minister Modi make peace with Pakistan? - DAWN.COM
I think relations between both our countries will probably head South initially as Modi will try and pander to public sentiment, what with the ceasefire violations taking place even today.
Call me a pessimist but relations with Pakistan don't seem very bright, if Modi becomes PM.
What do you guys think?
