Will Lithuania's blockade of Russian goods to Kaliningrad will be a casus belli for Russian -NATO war?

[waqasmwi]

Will Lithuania's blockade of Russian goods to Kaliningrad will be a casus belli for Russian -NATO war?
What do you think?

 

[vi-va]

No, and not possible.

Every single Russian capable soldiers are busy in Ukraine War right now. Russia is not dumb to open a second front.

If Russia invades Lithuania, the beneficiary will be Ukraine, while Russia will be the loser.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

No, and not possible.

Every single Russian capable soldiers are busy in Ukraine War right now. Russia is not dumb to open a second front.

If Russia invades Lithuania, the beneficiary will be Ukraine, while Russia will be the loser.

If Lithuania invades Kaliningrad then China invades Lithuania and annexes Lithuania. Lithuania only has 2.7 million population.

 

[Muhammed45]

No, and not possible.

Every single Russian capable soldiers are busy in Ukraine War right now. Russia is not dumb to open a second front.

If Russia invades Lithuania, the beneficiary will be Ukraine, while Russia will be the loser.

Lithuania is on suicide mode. It won't take too much time to annex it. Unlike Ukraine the three little Baltic states lack population and geo strategic depth.

If Lithuania invades Kaliningrad then China invades Lithuania and annexes Lithuania. Lithuania only has 2.7 million population.

Its beyond me to see you are allowed to comment.

 

[vi-va]

Lithuania is on suicide mode. It won't take too much time to annex it. Unlike Ukraine the three little Baltic states lack population and geo strategic depth.


Its beyond me to see you are allowed to comment.

It's not pure military issue here. It's unwise to open a second front. Putin has patience.

 

[Muhammed45]

It's not pure military issue here. It's unwise to open a second front. Putin has patience.

It's true but Russia won't tolerate losing Kaliningrad's supply lines. USA knows it well hence using its European dogs.

 

[maithil]

Russia can wait for dew months and let current conflict end. Baltic states and Poland can be taken care of at later stage.

 

[vi-va]

It's true but Russia won't tolerate losing Kaliningrad's supply lines. USA knows it well hence using its European dogs.

Kaliningrad can live without land route of Lithuania. Kaliningrad has a seaport as well.

In comparison, West Berlin was blocked by Soviet completely. U.S. had not initiated a war against Soviet by then.

If Russia invades Lithuania because of the land route cut, it means a war against NATO.
Not possible.

Berlin Blockade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Berlin Blockade (24 June 1948 – 12 May 1949) was one of the first major international crises of the Cold War. During the multinational occupation of post–World War II Germany, the Soviet Union blocked the Western Allies' railway, road, and canal access to the sectors of Berlin under Western control. The Soviets offered to drop the blockade if the Western Allies withdrew the newly introduced Deutsche Mark from West Berlin.

The Western Allies organised the Berlin Airlift (German: Berliner Luftbrücke, lit. '"Berlin Air Bridge"') from 26 June 1948 to 30 September 1949 to carry supplies to the people of West Berlin, a difficult feat given the size of the city and the population.[1][2] American and British air forces flew over Berlin more than 250,000 times, dropping necessities such as fuel and food, with the original plan being to lift 3,475 tons of supplies daily. By the spring of 1949, that number was often met twofold, with the peak daily delivery totalling 12,941 tons.

 

[Bengal71]

Kaliningrad can live without land route of Lithuania. Kaliningrad has a seaport as well.

In comparison, West Berlin was blocked by Soviet completely. U.S. had not initiated a war against Soviet by then.

If Russia invades Lithuania because of the land route cut, it means a war against NATO.
Not possible.

Berlin Blockade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Berlin Blockade (24 June 1948 – 12 May 1949) was one of the first major international crises of the Cold War. During the multinational occupation of post–World War II Germany, the Soviet Union blocked the Western Allies' railway, road, and canal access to the sectors of Berlin under Western control. The Soviets offered to drop the blockade if the Western Allies withdrew the newly introduced Deutsche Mark from West Berlin.

The Western Allies organised the Berlin Airlift (German: Berliner Luftbrücke, lit. '"Berlin Air Bridge"') from 26 June 1948 to 30 September 1949 to carry supplies to the people of West Berlin, a difficult feat given the size of the city and the population.[1][2] American and British air forces flew over Berlin more than 250,000 times, dropping necessities such as fuel and food, with the original plan being to lift 3,475 tons of supplies daily. By the spring of 1949, that number was often met twofold, with the peak daily delivery totalling 12,941 tons.

Hypothetically, if Russia does invade Lithunia will NATO actually start a war with Russia. Not impossible but I think it's unlikely. They will likely find some excuse to not start the war.

 

[INS_Vikrant]

Hypothetically, if Russia does invade Lithunia will NATO actually start a war with Russia

They kind of have to.

 

[vi-va]

Hypothetically, if Russia does invade Lithunia will NATO actually start a war with Russia. Not impossible but I think it's unlikely. They will likely find some excuse to not start the war.

I agree.

The possibility of a war (NATO against Russia) is relatively low in case of an invasion of Lithuania.

The Three Baltic States knew very well they are technically used as Tripping Line, but they don't have a choice. Tripping line means they are consumable, giving an alert and time for NATO to mobilize. But the possibility of war can not be ruled out completely, neither. It's up to Putin and his generals to evaluate the gain and risk.

NATO made commitment to Three Baltic States, but no forward deployment on their soil. This can mitigate Russia anxiety, as well as reducing miscalculation and risk.

I call this 'Tactical Ambiguity', comparing with U.S.'s 'Strategic Ambiguity' on Taiwan issue.

Not perfect, but so far so good.

Imo, the fundamental reason of Russia's strategic patience is that, Russia is relatively declining. It's not in Russia's interest to irritate E.U. and U.S. public, unless absolutely necessary.

 

[Bengal71]

They kind of have to.

I understand that. But when it comes to actual decision making at that very moment of starting a continent wide war where millions can be killed and the war may spiral out of control, I would not be surprised if they find an excuse not to invoke the article 5. It can happen no doubt, they may actually respond but the other is also not impossible.

 

[Bengal71]

I understand that. But when it comes to actual decision making at that very moment of starting a continent wide war where millions can be killed and the war may spiral out of control, I would not be surprised if they find an excuse not to invoke the article 5. It can happen no doubt, they may actually respond but the other is also not impossible.

I think it's a 50/50 chance. If the Russians are in the mode to bet, they can try it. If NATO doesn't respond it's a big win for Russia. However, if NATO responds then the Russians have to prepare for a huge war probably going for many years, it will also have the possibility of Russia being defeated and occupied.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Hypothetically, if Russia does invade Lithunia will NATO actually start a war with Russia. Not impossible but I think it's unlikely. They will likely find some excuse to not start the war.

The last time France declared war on Germany in 1939 because of security treaty with Poland it didn't end well for France.

I think it's a 50/50 chance. If the Russians are in the mode to bet, they can try it. If NATO doesn't respond it's a big win for Russia. However, if NATO responds then the Russians have to prepare for a huge war probably going for many years, it will also have the possibility of Russia being defeated and occupied.

If NATO attacks Russia then China goes to war. It'll go nuclear real quick.

 

[Bengal71]

The last time France declared war on Germany in 1939 because of security treaty with Poland it didn't end well for France.



If NATO attacks Russia then China goes to war. It'll go nuclear real quick.

Why China would go to war?