What's new

Why the OPEC+ deal is full of magnificent features?!

GlobalVillageSpace

Media Partner
Joined
Mar 4, 2017
Messages
993
Reaction score
1
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Global Village Space |

A perfect deal is where all protagonists get something out of it. All oil-producing countries stand to gain if oil price rebounds. In bare bones, the OPEC+ group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia finalised in a nail-biting photo finish on Sunday an agreement to steeply cut oil production by a combined 9.7 million barrels per day to rebalance the supply and demand in the world market and nudge the prices to go up.

It capped days-long tortuous international negotiations that also included the US. Additional cuts are expected from producers outside the OPEC+ group. Experts anticipate that by the second half of the year, oil prices would be nearing $40 per barrel.

The world’s oil producers are joining together for the largest cooperative production initiative in history. The tectonic plates are shifting in the geopolitics of oil.

Historically, the US rallied against the oil cartel as a threat to the American economy. But Washington not only joined the latest production programme but its success may actually hinge on the US, where oil production has doubled in a single decade.

Read more: Oil price war: In reality its about market share

That is to say, cuts can come from government action via corporate decisions, as companies either shut-in production or file for bankruptcy. The estimates are that the US production is projected to fall by 2 million barrels per day by year’s end and perhaps more. According to industry figures, the US’s drop in output could see exports shrinking from over 3 million bpd in 2019 to almost zero in the coming months, removing a key concern for both Russia and the Saudis amid fears of a US takeover of their traditional markets.

President Donald Trump has held direct talks in recent days with the heads of Russia, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. Although US, the world’s largest producer, has not offered firm production cuts, Trump and the US Energy Department have emphasised that market forces will bring US declines.

Read full article here:
Why the OPEC+ deal is full of magnificent features?!
 
.
fair enough but let's also consider the following:

1) Due the Corona virus, demand for oil and oil by products have crashed - let is conservatively say for the two worst months, at least by 50% (flights, cars, no manufacturing...) That on an annual basis is 9% - so cutting output by 10% is just to maintain 100% demand. Meaning oil pricess will not go up for that. IMO they have to cut by 25% to see any meaningful price action. Beneficiaries of this small cut are therefore certain stock holder and traders + to a minor extent truckers. If Trump manages to save US jobs based on this he is nothing less than a genius.

2) Current oil prices even after the price bump after the announced cuts are still well below the break even costs for most producers. So all they are doing is treading water losing a little less than before

The real beneficiaries are those countries that stock up on oil and some shipping hulls that charge for storage.
 
.
the crash in oil prices threatens the American shale oil industry and the financial entities that support them
the crash is driven more by reduced demand than overproduction
 
.
my personal view is that the shale industry must be stopped until they are able to prove safety. Everything I have read points to long term disaster if that continues with pumping poison into the deep earth, fracking structures that sustain the land.
 
.

Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom