Let's be honest now. Pakistan is in the midst of a civil war which will continue for many many years.
No more than India is in the midst of one. I don't want to derail this thread by linking to that ToI map that shows the vast swathes of territory under Maoist control, or the growing number of districts wracked by insurgency. Let's not have the humongous pot call the travelling kettle black.
Past policy of arming Islamic extremists in Pakistan by the Pakistani establishment has finally paid dividends to India. Your army is preoccupied with fighting the TTP and in turn has shifted its attention away from India.
You must not have kept up with the news over, oh, the last decade or so... Pakistan has never, for one instant, turned its attention away from India. It is this very issue that has been debated high and low with NATO and we have refused to budge even an iota. It is quite clear to us that while we can turn the tide with the rag-tag groups on the western border with a few months of Swat/SWA type operations, India is the real long term security issue.
Other than the already present FC and a few infantry divs, nothing has been moved or redeployed to the west, and both Rah-e-Nijaat and Rah-e-Haq operations have been very successful with these resources. All the strike corps, armor, the Air Force disposition, strategic forces/missiles etc. remain completely focused 100% on India.
As Gen. Kiyani eloquently explained, until our disputes with India arrive at some sort of acceptable resolution, the Pakistani Military will remain completely focused on India.
Pakistani Army will remain India-centric: Kayani- Politics/Nation-News-The Economic Times
majority Indians would turn on the Indian establishment which created that monster and not try to figure out who is currently feeding the monster. Now that differentiates us from you.
Well, how angelic... and self righteous of you.
As for Afghanistan, it is nothing more than a current day strategic position for India. India must be gaining some global advantage in investing in Afghanistan or else it would not invest in that area. Live with it. Protest all you want. But get used to the Indian flag flying in Afghanistan. As the Yanks say.."the times they are a changing".
Oh, the times are certainly changing! Obama is embattled within the US on domestic issues. Americans want their troops back home. He has already announced a 2011 draw down. The surge troops will be out soon, NATO countries are and will continue to bail. I don't see Obama in a political position that would allow him another surge in a year or two if things take a southerly direction. That leaves a paltry force in Afghanistan which will not be capable of hold-and-secure ops, and these numbers too will be dwindling every day. That is the reality. American presence in Afghanistan is not the question. It is about whether that presence is substantial enough to effect meaningful political change. I don't think that is going to be the case at all.
We've already waited a decade, watching the effects of foreign presence in Afghanistan unfold, what's another 3-4 years? If you think the Northern Alliance will survive in Afghan government retaining the kind of influence it has had over the past few years, please brace yourself for a humongous disappointment. The tide in Afghanistan has been going in the opposite direction and Obama's recent overtures to involve the Chinese (of all people!) in stabilizing Afghanistan can only bode ill for India's Afghan agenda.
We first had NATO nations commit to a $500M bribery fund for the very same elements they had been fighting, then there was some definitional dancing around of who the money would go to, and finally we had the British come out and say that "80% of the Taliban" were really not all that extremist and could qualify for the bribery program.
Any guesses on whether these 80% "non extremist" Taliban about to be armed with $500M will be supportive of Indian presence and influence in Afghanistan?
Finally as to India engaging with Pakistan. No sane Indian would believe that talks would yield any results. I suspect that the Indian establishment needs something from the west. Prodded on by Hillary Bhabi and Barack chahcha , they will engage with Pakistan knowing full well that in a few weeks time Pakistan will do something stupid to derail the talks. Then India will get its concessions from the west
Yes, Pakistan will do something "stupid", or the Indian government will give a nod to hard core militants within India's military establishment to enact yet another Samjhota express like terrorist plot, killing innocent Pakistani civilians on Indian soil and sabotaging the progress of any such talks... but let's chalk this one up to a difference in perspective, shall we? The basic thrust of your assertion is something that I support. I don't believe Pakistan should talk to India at all.
Frankly, there is no need for Pakistan to do so.
and Pakistan will return to its turmoil and dizziness. History is repetitive as you pointed out but only to those who refuse to strategise their positions.
Pakistan's overall position can be characterized by a) its strong position in Afghanistan - and we can debate this all day, but I'll bet the government that emerges in Afghanistan 3-5 years hence will be pro Pakistan if not decidedly anti-India, b) its ability to pursue the erstwhile IPI without India - potentially bringing in China and hence creating a regional energy cooperation framework from which India has been evicted, c) its increasing role in the SCO in the context of its strong relationship with the "platinum sponsor" of that organization, China, d) immunity from any conceivable military action, poppycock and nonsense such as cold-start-under-nuclear-overhang notwithstanding and e) its success with both Swat and SWA operations in an incredibly short period of time and hence its proven ability to deal with the western border without taking anything away from the East.
There are a number of other things happening also, such as Turkey's emergence as the strongest player in the ME and soon, the strongest military power in Europe, and the benefits that accrue from that relationship. You may have noted that Turkey has supported Pakistan's position against that of India's for decades. If their support was strong when they were weak, it will only get stronger as they emerge as a premier regional and global player.
For all these reasons and more, Pakistan's interests are secure and its ability to turn the tide when things get tough is proven. Therefore, it has absolutely no strategic need to talk to India. It would be preferable if a discussion over the table could have resolved issues, but we've tried that numerous times and it only wastes time. Let's pursue our independent policies and see how the situation evolves in Afghanistan, Kashmir, on the Chinese border, with the IP(C) pipeline, with Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul-EU rail networks, with the SCO and elsewhere... no harm in being a little patient.
