Why hasn't Pakistan been able to have a sustained GDP growth rate?

[striver44]

Try harder to drag Chinese into this.

why not, your ignorance of your own religion explains everything.

I mean you admit it already.

 

[El Sidd]

why not, your ignorance of your own religion explains everything.

I mean you admit it already.

Ignorance is a bliss.

 

[striver44]

Ignorance is a bliss.

right.

 

[KAL-EL]

Pakistan could use PayPal

 

[The Accountant]

Sorry I did not mean to offend anyone. religion is a proxy for attitudes/culture etc
the closest contrast are Sikhs who are ethnically the same stock as Pakistani Punjabi Muslims but a lot more successful

Thats in last 20 years. Before 80s pakistani punjabi and pakistani was much better than india or indian punjabi.

Furthermore, much successful is hardly a reality. See human development index and u will find india lack behind in alot

 

[FuturePAF]

Yup, Pakistani overseas should invest in Pakistan but manufacturing needs huge capital as Pakistani overseas in general are professionals, not business people.

I suggest to invest in service industry like IT, design, architect, and other modern service industry and hopefully tap Chinese market and Western market. Service based business can be started small but rely on knowledgeable people that I believe is a nature of Pakistani overseas in Western countries.

Philippine economy for instant rely heavily on service sectors and they can have 6-7 % economic growth in the last 5 years. Pakistani also has relatively good English speakers compared to other developing countries, just like many British and US colony (Philippine is included). From service sector than move to industry if capital is not a problem anymore, just like Elon Musk business strategy.

In the current COVID economy there maybe Western companies that have gone bankrupt which could be acquired for a fair market/bargain price that could really modernize Pakistani industries, vetted by the expertise of Pakistani professionals.

Agriculture and Food Processing could be one field, especially if they can maintain the contacts that companies has in its home country to help with the paper work in getting import/export licenses. TATA did this with Tetley Tea. But there are many agricultural and associated value added products we would go into. Pakistani professionals working in the pharmaceutical industry would help re-build the prospects of Pakistani pharmaceutical exports to the west and if certified with those safety standards, could be allowed to be exported to China.

Pakistanis should definitely try to go into as many service sector, especially IT, but they should also look for physical export industries as well. Political and technological winds can shift, just like Gulf construction jobs, and it leaves many jobless. We need sustainable diversification and a broad spectrum modernization policy.

We also need to lobby hard with the new Biden administration to get the FATF restrictions removed and find a way to borrow at the low interest rates offered in the global market to finance our modernization. If we can find new investors we can generate taxes through worker income taxes or exports to pay off Chinese loans and find a way to reduce the price of electricity to make our industrial parks a competitive investment location without having to subsidize them in perpetuity.

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

In the current COVID economy there maybe Western companies that have gone bankrupt which could be acquired for a fair market/bargain price that could really modernize Pakistani industries, vetted by the expertise of Pakistani professionals.

Agriculture and Food Processing could be one field, especially if they can maintain the contacts that companies has in its home country to help with the paper work in getting import/export licenses. TATA did this with Tetley Tea. But there are many agricultural and associated value added products we would go into. Pakistani professionals working in the pharmaceutical industry would help re-build the prospects of Pakistani pharmaceutical exports to the west and if certified with those safety standards, could be allowed to be exported to China.

Pakistanis should definitely try to go into as many service sector, especially IT, but they should also look for physical export industries as well. Political and technological winds can shift, just like Gulf construction jobs, and it leaves many jobless. We need sustainable diversification and a broad spectrum modernization policy.

We also need to lobby hard with the new Biden administration to get the FATF restrictions removed and find a way to borrow at the low interest rates offered in the global market to finance our modernization. If we can find new investors we can generate taxes through worker income taxes or exports to pay off Chinese loans and find a way to reduce the price of electricity to make our industrial parks a competitive investment location without having to subsidize them in perpetuity.

Embraer bhai jaan bilkul pareshan hui hui hai. I've been yelling this top of my voice but it seems Pakistanis are busy just doing afsari/naukri.

Someone give me address of AirHQ and GHQ I want to send this suggestion to those old geezers.
Embraer is such a great buy. It is a running business. Instead of betting on COMAC chinese copycat(ye bhi karlo agar profit hai). PAC MISSING OUT ON BIG OPPURTUNITY. Even a stake or partnership with Embraer will be very profitable.

 

[FuturePAF]

Embraer bhai jaan bilkul pareshan hui hui hai. I've been yelling this top of my voice but it seems Pakistanis are busy just doing afsari/naukri.

Someone give me address of AirHQ and GHQ I want to send this suggestion to those old geezers.
Embraer is such a great buy. It is a running business. Instead of betting on COMAC chinese copycat(ye bhi karlo agar profit hai). PAC MISSING OUT ON BIG OPPURTUNITY. Even a stake or partnership with Embraer will be very profitable.

Is Embraer going Bankrupt? Considering our need for new MPA, possibly a new Awacs platform down the line, and a decent medium range plane for Pakistani airlines, Embrarer might be a good idea if we can find investors. It might be too big a fish to swallow unless we have multiple investors, along with PAC. PAC or one the air forces development companies might still be under some sanctions to from the US, so it might also face that problem.

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

Is Embraer going Bankrupt? Considering our need for new MPA, possibly a new Awacs platform down the line, and a decent medium range plane for Pakistani airlines, Embrarer might be a good idea if we can find investors. It might be too big a fish to swallow unless we have multiple investors, along with PAC. PAC or one the air forces development companies might still be under some sanctions to from the US, so it might also face that problem.

I'm not sure if Embraer was going bankrupt but they were struggling big time. And they were angry when Boeing pulled out, now they are seeking partners. I think this oppurtunity won't last long. It will be snagged up quite easily.

PIA, PAC, AirSial, AirBlue could all invest together and ask Embraer to develop an airplane that is a bigger, efficient regional jet to take on the A220 and make sure that jet has more/comparable range to the A220.

Also I expect Embraer to make tons of money with the KC390. It will replace C130 I strongly believe. And as you mentioned they already have other defence product catalog as well. Brazilians also have good munitions programs as well for aircrafts. We could tap into their industrial expertise/know how for project know how as well.

*tangent* We don't even have to acquire Embraer outright just get a stake in it or partner/JV up with them.
Honestly dude PakMil I don't understand why PakMil won't do JVs. The JF17 JV with chinese worked out so well. We should do same with Turks they have some amazing kit on offer.

In the current COVID economy there maybe Western companies that have gone bankrupt which could be acquired for a fair market/bargain price that could really modernize Pakistani industries, vetted by the expertise of Pakistani professionals.

Agriculture and Food Processing could be one field, especially if they can maintain the contacts that companies has in its home country to help with the paper work in getting import/export licenses. TATA did this with Tetley Tea. But there are many agricultural and associated value added products we would go into. Pakistani professionals working in the pharmaceutical industry would help re-build the prospects of Pakistani pharmaceutical exports to the west and if certified with those safety standards, could be allowed to be exported to China.

Pakistanis should definitely try to go into as many service sector, especially IT, but they should also look for physical export industries as well. Political and technological winds can shift, just like Gulf construction jobs, and it leaves many jobless. We need sustainable diversification and a broad spectrum modernization policy.

We also need to lobby hard with the new Biden administration to get the FATF restrictions removed and find a way to borrow at the low interest rates offered in the global market to finance our modernization. If we can find new investors we can generate taxes through worker income taxes or exports to pay off Chinese loans and find a way to reduce the price of electricity to make our industrial parks a competitive investment location without having to subsidize them in perpetuity.

Also why no one in Pakistan thought about making luxury yachts in Karachi or Balochistan(not the dangerous parts)?

I ask because recently I've seen RV camper van makers pop up and rich ashrafiya of Paksitan seem to love them.

 

[Falcon26]

DIfferent answer for different time periods of Pakistani history but there are also some constant factors which have left us behind. Firstly we can go through the year specific reasons:

1) War years (65 and 71) where the decline is understandable.

2) Natural disasters (2005 Kashmir earthquake and the floodings afterwards).

3) Sanctions on Pakistan following nuclear tests in 1999 ( "We find the sanctions had a modest but measurable adverse effect on India’s economy and a sizeable negative impact on Pakistan’s economy" https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/npr/morrow64.pdf)

View attachment 695872

Then there are the constant factors which have throughout our history caused us to lag behind.

1) Political instability. Just look at the period between 88 and 99 and it becomes glaringly obvious what is meant by this point. No sustainable economic policies can be implemented if the government is changing every other year. Compare that with Bangladesh where their premier is going to start their 12th consecutive year as the Prime Minister now. Not even dictators have lasted that long in Pakistan.

2) Illiteracy and Feudalism: It has been in the vested interest of the elite feudal class to ensure that the masses in their regions and districts remain illiterate and thereby do not adapt to the modern economy. Inner Sindh, parts of Baluchistan and Southern Punjab have 13th century serf like economies. There is a reason why a clan like Bhutto keeps winning in Sindh and holds the whole province hostage to it.

Illiteracy also means our people are out of touch with modern developments. The likes of Vietnam and Bangladesh have all witnessed a decline in their fertility rates and used their incumbent resources to better educate and equip their citizens for the modern world. In Pakistan meanwhile the drastic rate at which the population is exploding means that little resources are available to improve the quality of incoming generation.

3) Foreign Aid: Will link this study http://www.sci-int.com/pdf/636912161933242422.pdf

4) Incompetent leadership: During the Musharraf era we saw a sudden spike in growth which was followed by electricity cuts becoming rampant. Our leaders including his predecessors had simply not planned for the future and for over a decade our GDP growth has been held hostage by our inability to power our industries.

-------------------------

There are probably other reasons as well which I have missed.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Post of the week.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

The arab religion?

Islam is an arab religion?

Wow, the chinese commies here are very successful making an entire generation of ignorant people.

I agree. the maid country is very good at religion.

 

[striver44]

I agree. the maid country is very good at religion.

Not mean enough.

 

[Neurath]

Why are Indonesians, Americans and Indians who don't have a f**king idea of how Pakistan's economy works, and the history of it, sitting here acting like economic experts.

 

[PradoTLC]

Pakistan has had a very uneven growth path since independance.

One year the growth rate is 7% and then the next it's 2%.

Why hasn't Pakistan been able to sustain a high GDP growth rate?


Look at Bangladesh for example their GDP growth rate hasn't fallen below 4% since the start of this century. Even this year, it is above 4%. No wonder their economy is bigger than ours now.


When will Pakistan grow at 7-8% a year and when will it be able to sustain it?

The average GDP growth rate for Pakistan will be 4% for the next 5 years.

2% in 2020, and then 4% for 2022, 2023, and 2024 and then 5% for 2025.

bcos we dont make any thing and take loans to pay our debt...

 

[SBUS-CXK]

Ideally yes, but that would antagonize the Chinese. Renegotiating the FTA may also be precarious when hoping to secure further loans from China.

Considering Pakistan doesn’t have any other investors/lenders it can count on, other than China and Overseas Pakistanis. It should focus on getting overseas Pakistanis to invest in export orient industries for Chinese and Non-Chinese markets.

laser focused on labor intensive industries and in those areas where Pakistani products can be competitive Globally despite the uphill climb.

We also need investment to raise our agricultural yields so we can produce raw materials for our value added industries at competitive prices.

If Pakistan really wants to develop manufacturing. I suggest you can borrow money from AIIB or IMF. AIIB is dominated by China. And China has special drawing rights in the IMF. hope to help Pakistan.

The Chinese also want Pakistan to industrialize.