Why Economists Are Still Baffled by India’s GDP Growth

[Odysseus]

LOL, Indian members are always questioning our GDP figures.

Now the whole world is questioning India's GDP figures.

IMF to examine India’s ‘puzzling’ growth data | The Financial Express

Modi's "special revisions" did not actually change any of the underlying economic indicators, which are performing poorly as usual. It just marked up the overall growth rate significantly.

Overnight, his revisions changed India's growth rate from 4% to around 7%. But none of the actual economic indicators changed at all, they are still the same as they were when India's growth was 4%.

I don't think you bothered to read the entire article. the puzzle is that India's GDP should be higher when compared to previous years, not lower as stated by the current government figure.

Therefore, it is consistent with what our research department colleagues are saying, which is that India (like most other emerging markets) is growing potentially slower than what it was before 2008,” he said.

Cashin added that it was hard to figure out the potential output right now. “It is as if we have an old India running on old numbers and a new India running on new numbers. It is hard to figure out what medium term growth rate is now for India. Though we would peg it at 7.75%-8%, we will have to do more work on this by looking at new numbers and new calculations. That is something we are grappling with,” he said.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I don't think you bothered to read the entire article. the puzzle is that India's GDP should be higher when compared to previous years, not lower as stated by the current government figure.

I don't think you actually read what you quoted.

Do you know what a "medium term" prediction means?

 

[Odysseus]

I don't think you actually read what you quoted.

Do you know what a "medium term" prediction means?

Still IMF retained the govt figures quoted in April,

In its World Economic Outlook Update released here, IMF retained India's growth projection for current year at 7.5 per cent which will be higher than China's 6.8 per cent.
In case of both India and China, IMF has retained the projection made earlier in April, while it has lowered global growth forecast from 3.5 per cent to 3.3 per cent for 2015.

Indias Economic Growth to Beat Chinas in 2016: IMF - NDTVProfit.com

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Still IMF retained the govt figures quoted in April,



Indias Economic Growth to Beat Chinas in 2016: IMF - NDTVProfit.com

Even after magically adjusting your growth from 4% to 7% overnight, you are still growing at the exact same speed as a $11 trillion economy.

But the economic indicators for India are still poor, same as before Modi's magic revisions.

0.9% increase in cement production? What are you building infrastructure with, coconuts?

 

[Odysseus]

Even after magically adjusting your growth from 4% to 7% overnight, you are still growing at the exact same speed as a $11 trillion economy.

From the official IMF site, can you show me where the 4% came from. Modi came to power last year, and the revision was made based on the formula provided by IMF.

0.9% increase in cement production? What are you building infrastructure with, coconuts?

Of,course production increased marginally of cement, when India is already producing 25% surplus cement.

-India is the world's second-largest cement manufacturer after China, accounting for about 7% of the global production. The country is also among the leading exporters worldwide.

-The capacity has reached around 240mn tonnes in FY 2012, while utilisation fell to 75%, reflecting the still existing mismatch in supply-demand.

EMIS Insight - India Cement Production Report

This is last years report but still relevant.

 

[farhan_9909]

View attachment 260898
From the official IMF site, can you show me where the 4% came from. Modi came to power last year, and the revision was made based on the formula provided by IMF.


Of,course production increased marginally of cement, when India is already producing 25% surplus cement.

-India is the world's second-largest cement manufacturer after China, accounting for about 7% of the global production. The country is also among the leading exporters worldwide.

-The capacity has reached around 240mn tonnes in FY 2012, while utilisation fell to 75%, reflecting the still existing mismatch in supply-demand.

EMIS Insight - India Cement Production Report

This is last years report but still relevant.

Post from oct 2014 imf report

 

[AndrewJin]

Even after magically adjusting your growth from 4% to 7% overnight, you are still growing at the exact same speed as a $11 trillion economy.

But the economic indicators for India are still poor, same as before Modi's magic revisions.

0.9% increase in cement production? What are you building infrastructure with, coconuts?

And consumption is very low.
Total retail sales is only 16% of China's number, and consumption is one of the building blocks of GDP.

 

[Bilal9]

Don't know if this helps, but here is the latest update: August, 2015 from India Brand Equity Foundation. The numbers could be fudged because this is a site controlled by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India.

Interestingly - look at the weak increase between FY13 and FY14 below while all of a sudden you have an 'aspirational' uptick for FY15.

In the audit world one calls this a (ahem) 'forward looking statement'.....and there are profuse disclaimers that follow.

Indian Cement Industry Analysis

Domestic cement consumption in India on an uptrend
•Domestic cement consumption is expected to have reached 324 million tonnes in FY15 from 165.63 million tonnes in FY11

•The consumption is further expected to increase at a CAGR of 15.7 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 398 million tonnes

•Demand will be supported by infrastructure development in tier 2 and tier 3 cities

•The country’s per capita consumption is around 190 kg, which is lower than the World average which is around 500 Kg, providing further room for demand in the industry

Latest update: August, 2015

 

[Shotgunner51]

've been to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong mostly - on business. Been to Kunming also for a few days - passing through on my way to Dhaka.

On behalf on Shanghai, warm welcome to all Bangladeshi bro!

 

[Bilal9]

On behalf on Shanghai, warm welcome to all Bangladeshi bro!

Thank You Sir - Likewise a warm welcome to all Chinese brothers and sisters to Bangladesh!

We value our China-Bangladesh trade and friendly relations!

 

[Shotgunner51]

Thank You Sir - Likewise a warm welcome to all Chinese brothers and sisters to Bangladesh!

We value our China-Bangladesh trade and friendly relations!

LOL darn it's my bad to miss out the sisters part ... All Bangladeshi sisters are also welcome to Shanghai, come shopping, wine, dine and party!

 

[Rasengan]

The Indians I know in the US work harder than anyone else, including the Chinese (coz they don't have to waste time doing mindless shopping on IPhones like the Chinese!!!)

The Bangladeshis also work hard, but then taxi drivers and waiters have to work hard, don't they?

The Chinese work ethics are legendary in both dedication, efficiency and in scale. The American's are familiar with this concept, after all the railway construction in the 19th century must be credited to the Chinese laborers who actually built it for them.

 

[Bilal9]

The Chinese work ethics are legendary in both dedication, efficiency and in scale. The American's are familiar with this concept, after all the railway construction in the 19th century must be credited to the Chinese laborers who actually built it for them.

I have a few links - although a bit off topic....

Workers of the Central Pacific Railroad . Transcontinental Railroad . WGBH American Experience | PBS

Chinese Laborers and the Construction of the Central Pacific

 

[Asif Durrani]

some indians are so desperate.believe me, if india has some concrete achievements, the world will show respect of india.pretending to be a pakistani with loads of praise for india only shows your low IQ

Had attended a webinar on Saturday about how Chinese cooking of growth figures, internal debt etc. is currently the biggest crisis in the world. Thanks to Chinese "achievements", we all stand to lose. So feel proud of your "achievements".

The Chinese work ethics are legendary in both dedication, efficiency and in scale. The American's are familiar with this concept, after all the railway construction in the 19th century must be credited to the Chinese laborers who actually built it for them.

The British similarly used Indian indentured labour to provide the world with sugar. Are the Indians supposed to be proud of their quasi-slave heritage on that account?

You're trying to be a snob. That's fine. Lots of people look down on you as well.Your comments are so typical of these new H1B idiots who think they have it made and act like a snob.

Of course they never had anything in India to start with.

People who are truly wealthy don't have airs about them. Only the middle class bourgeois have that problem.



It is because the Indian Govt. is trying to screw over Bangladesh at every opportunity. China is not. I don't expect you to understand. I have nothing against Indians as people however.



You don't have to. Patriotic Pakistanis do it here everyday. If you are not a Pakistani citizen then why have that badge of honor attached to your handle? No Pakistani I know adores the current Indian Govt. (or Hindutva). It is clear you have not met a Hindutva idiot in person. You being a Pakistani are automatically the enemy.



There is no point. Your views are proof enough.....

In any case these are off-topic discussions and have nothing to do with the subject of the thread.

Your psycho-analysis about my socio-economic status and ideology are welcome. And you would know the difference between old wealth and bourgeois how? From the lofty perch of your Nantucket mansion? There is a difference between reading, hearing and living a life. It is easy to make assumptions about something that you will never have access to yourself.

No, Pakistanis are NOT enemies with the current or any Indian regimes, just as I am sure most Indians are not their enemies. Again, wouldn't it be better if you stayed on topic instead of tried stoking enmity between others? What does a Bangladeshi gain from that?

Regarding China, I see the same trend. You seem to have reached the conclusion that it is in a Bangladeshi's best interest to try and play off one country with another and wait for the windfall gains. Kindly study your history, as to the ultimate outcome of all such smart tactics.

The hypocrisy is breath-taking. You are tag-teaming with a Chinese member who is similarly denigrating a country which is about the same size as China and a bit behind on economic indices. He has ZERO respect for that country, yet, according to you, he must be so well-disposed towards Bangladesh. Why is that so, because you are so small that it does not matter? Does it not bother you that a person who is insulting his peers about their economic achievements, what views would he actually be having in private about Bangladesh, a much less significant country on all parameters?

The Chinese find you to be useful idiots (the second proxy), and you think that you are smart enough to use the Chinese for your own ends. Let the games begin.

 

[Odysseus]

Post from oct 2014 imf report

Didn't I mention that at the end. Because of the surplus last year the cement production has increased only marginally this year.
And your point was?