Why did the UAE cancel the $23 billion F-35 deal with the United States? A former ambassador explains

[Tshering22]

The UAE knows and has prepared itself for these eventualities and complications with the US.. it has contracted the Rafale in good numbers..and there was talk about China offering its J-20 as an alternative to the F-35.. But better yet..imagine that SU-75 locally made and equipped with the best European, Chines, Russian technologies.. The Russians BTW are testing flat exhausts now on their heavy strike drone and the SU-57.. that will be a good addition for stealth characteristics..

UAE will remain Euro-centric for some time now. Europeans have excellent relations with the Emiratis. They already operate French jets and most likely will also approach the UK for the sale of BAE Tempest once it is done. They have more than enough jets right now even if their F-16s don't get upgraded by the Americans.

@Abu Dhabi, what do you think are the steps in the next 10 years that the UAE will take to diversify its suppliers? A little insight into the long-term plans would be helpful here.

 

[CrazyZ]

Voters, military and their elected politicians aren’t. India is also a secular country on paper. Doesn’t mean people living there are also secular.

USA had far more support in MENA and the rest of the world in the past. It could more easily make dumb decisions and get away with it. The USA has less margin for strategic stupidity today.

If there are serious disruptions to global energy supplies.....Israel, India, Japan, UK can do nothing to change this.

 

[Genghis khan1]

USA had far more support in MENA and the rest of the world in the past. It could more easily make dumb decisions and get away with it. The USA has less margin for strategic stupidity today.

If there are serious disruptions to global energy supplies.....Israel, India, Japan, UK can do nothing to change this.

Why do you think US has 11 aircrafts carriers and 5000+ Air force jets. To make sure this “if” never happens, and if this this “if” ever happens, US can secure whatever it needs. Even if it means taking control of the resources overseas.

COVID vaccine stockpile was just a small exhibit of it.

 

[CrazyZ]

Why do you think US has 11 aircrafts carriers and 5000+ Air force jets. To make sure this “if” never happens, and if this this “if” ever happens, US can secure whatever it needs. Even if it means taking control of the resources overseas.

COVID vaccine stockpile was just a small exhibit of it.

Times have changed. The Chinese Navy will be sun bathing off the coast southern California if the USA sends 11 AC carriers to secure the MENA. USA does not have the same room for strategic stupidity that it has had in the past.

 

[Genghis khan1]

Times have changed. The Chinese Navy will be sun bathing off the coast southern California if the USA sends 11 AC carriers to secure the MENA. USA does not have the same room for strategic stupidity that it has had in the past.

Chinese navy is no where near that capability. Neither are they going to fight for MENA. They most probably will struck a deal with west to share the resources. . Survival of the fittest.

 

[Indos]

How many combat aircraft has Indonesia purchased from USA or the West ?

32 F 16, 32 Hawk 200/109 (operational/ in service )

If that is the case, then it was foolish to cancel Russian deals and go for American F-15IDs. This will only make you more dependent. Instead, you guys should have boosted your Su-35 and Rafale fleets. Sure, the CAATSA would have hit you, but you could have sold off the F-16s in retaliation and canceled the Boeing B-737 deal of Lion Air Group of over 500 airplanes.

F15 is still Prabowo wishlist

As I said, many journalist dont understand Indonesian politics. We need to differentiate between Prabowo wishlist and Jokowi strategy (shown in Finance Ministry and Planning Ministry approved budget until 2022 state budget and 2020 -2024 approved defence equipment procurement programs)

 

[Indos]

Prabowo is Jokowi rival in 2 last election. He still wants to compete in 2024 Presidential election.

 

[CrazyZ]

Chinese navy is no where near that capability. Neither are they going to fight for MENA. They most probably will struck a deal with west to share the resources. . Survival of the fittest.

China and Russia would like nothing more then for the USA to be bogged down in a war to conquer the MENA. USA would be bleed and drained dry. USA could not subjugate Afghanistan after 20 years of fighting........and you think they will subjugate the entire MENA . Please send me some of what you are drinking

 

[Genghis khan1]

China and Russia would like nothing more then for the USA to be bogged down in a war to conquer the MENA. USA would be bleed and drained dry. USA could not subjugate Afghanistan after 20 years of fighting........and you think they will subjugate the entire MENA . Please send me some of what you are drinking

Were you in some sort of coma last 20 years? Where were Chinese and Russians when US was running OEF and OIF?

US is already running operations in Both MEand NA.

 

[Abu Dhabi]

UAE will remain Euro-centric for some time now. Europeans have excellent relations with the Emiratis. They already operate French jets and most likely will also approach the UK for the sale of BAE Tempest once it is done. They have more than enough jets right now even if their F-16s don't get upgraded by the Americans.

@Abu Dhabi, what do you think are the steps in the next 10 years that the UAE will take to diversify its suppliers? A little insight into the long-term plans would be helpful here.

The UAE wants to be a soft power in the region. So diplomacy is paramount, which is why i think the UAE will stick to its previous and current suppliers (perhaps what they get from them will differ drastically) and the UAE will also add new suppliers from the new (official) alliances with Turkey, Israel, India ....etc.

i am guessing here , but critical weaponry and devices (air, sea) from prominent suppliers with high quality products and products that are not as critical from the new suppliers in the market (rinsing nations such as turkey, Pakistan, India and Indonesia)

 

[ProudPak]

The USA is foolish for prioritizing Israel over ties with the Arabs. Israel has no strategic value and not critical to protecting the USA homeland. Why the USA bends over for it....I don't understand?

Do u not understand AIPAC Jewish zionists run America. When u are the master the slave has no say

 

[Whizzack]

And Indonesia still want to buy more F-16?

No we don't.. it's Rafales now.. and also the soon to be produced KF-21.. and probably F-15 EXs if we can afford it, and it doesn't come with too much strings attached.. like banning Huawei from Indonesia..

 

[Tshering22]

The UAE wants to be a soft power in the region. So diplomacy is paramount, which is why i think the UAE will stick to its previous and current suppliers (perhaps what they get from them will differ drastically) and the UAE will also add new suppliers from the new (official) alliances with Turkey, Israel, India ....etc.

i am guessing here , but critical weaponry and devices (air, sea) from prominent suppliers with high quality products and products that are not as critical from the new suppliers in the market (rinsing nations such as turkey, Pakistan, India and Indonesia)

Thanks for the clarification. Hard power is too much of a headache for many countries. Those who do not know about the position, see the perks of being on the top but not the pitfalls & stress of having to maintain that dominance using all your energy.

However, this soft power will need to be backed by a military force that can hammer sense into aggressive adversaries from your region. Singapore is an example; they always prefer trade & diplomacy but maintain the most advanced military force in the region.

 

[blain2]

Not only Israel, USA has tier one partners, like Israel in Middle East, many in West Europe, and for South East Asia they are Singapore and Australia. This is why Singapore and Australia can buy F35 while Indonesia cant.

Similar like happening in 1990's, Indonesia F 16 during that time is not allowed to have AMRAAM while Singapore F 16 can have AMRAAM

South Korea and Japan are also in the same tier as Australia/Singapore.

The Emeratis would do well to align with Turkey on a joint 5th gen. platform development (even Pakistan could join that). They could bankroll that, pull in Russian and Chinese support on propulsion and have a viable platform without the fear of any sanctions.

I know its easier said than done, but if UAE want to be pragmatic (although I believe this postponement is just talk and the moment Americans offer a fig-leaf, the Emeratis will take the deal and pay $23B out of their noses for a capability that is already compromised from the get-go), like they are in talking about the manned vs. unmanned platform efficacy, then they should think long term.

Saudis and Emeratis should join in with Turkey in the development of this next gen. platform similar to EF Typhoon and JSF programs. Multiple countries funding/bankrolling with offsets/ToT/assembly being shared and done in a broader eco-system. I can well imagine Pakistan wanting to participate as well.

 

[dBSPL]

I think that UAE will be one of MMU's partner countries. Judging by the latest developments, this project could become a(nother) joint fighter jet project.